• Title/Summary/Keyword: 교통사고 발생확률

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Identification Method for Hazardous Road Sections Based on Black Spot Distribution (교통사고잦은곳 발생분포를 활용한 개선사업 구간선정 방안)

  • Kim, Sang-Ook;Ahn, Seong-Chae;Choi, Kee-Choo;Chang, Il-Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2008
  • Even though the efficiency of a point based black spot improvement project has been low, none of solid methodology, which is based on section not point, and is considered as one of the promising substitute, has not been come up with yet. Thus, this research aims at proposing the adequate length of a hazardous section and a method to set segment length over which the project needs to be performed on rural highways by analyzing the distances from project-conducted sites to new black spots in the following year and distances between project needed but not conducted sites and new black spots in the following year. According to the analysis, the probability of being a new black spot near the project conducted intersection is higher than that of a non-conducted intersection within 2km, however, no strong relationships between project types and distance distribution have been found. Based on those findings, a method to determine the target segment including adjacent black spots within 2 kilometers-range was proposed.

Level of Service of Signalized Intersections Considering both Delay and Accidents (지체와 사고를 고려한 신호교차로 서비스수준 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Je-Jin;Park, Seong-Yong;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2008
  • Level of Service (LOS) is one of ways to evaluate operational conditions. It is very important factor in evaluation especially for the facility of highways. However, some studies proved that ${\upsilon}/c$ ratio and accident rate is appeared like a second function which has a U-form. It means there is a gap between LOS and safety of highway facilities. Therefore, this study presents a method for evaluation of a signalized intersection which is considered both smooth traffic operation (delay) and traffic safety (accident). Firstly, as a result of our research, accident rates and EPDO are decreased when it has a big delay. In that reason, it is necessary to make a new Level of Service included traffic safety. Secondly, this study has developed a negative binominal regression model which is based on the relation between accident patterns and stream. Thirdly, standards of LOS are presented which is originated from calculation between annual delay costs and annual accident cost at each intersection. Lastly, worksheet form is presented as an expression to an estimation step of a signalized intersection with traffic accident prediction model and new LOS.

A Study on Application Standard of At-grade Intersection Considering Both Delay and Accident (지체와 사고를 고려한 평면교차로 적용기준에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Je Jin;Jung, Hyung Mo;Ha, Tae Jun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.3D
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    • pp.295-306
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    • 2008
  • The Intersection is inner traffic facilities and the space where the roads are intersected and connected. And also, the Intersection is the decision-making section for drivers to select the route according to the geometric structure and operation method. However decision-making section cause to raise car accidents rate because it imposes a heavy burden on drivers. In that reason, many countries such as Europe use the Roundabouts to reduce the numbers of decision making and collision. In Korea, the kinds of method are just introduced and it is using now but there are no exact standards. Hence, this study suggests the process to evaluate and determine the types of Intersection which are based on the traffic flow (congestion) and traffic safety (accidents). Firstly, this study presents the number of accident at each Intersection which is depended on the traffic volume. Secondly, this study calculates and analysis the accident at signalized Intersection, non-signalized Intersection and Roundabout by TSIS-NETSIM program. Thirdly, this study concludes the best suitable Intersection type through the materials which are mentioned before.

Estimating the Effectiveness of Road Safety Features using Pedestrian Accident Probability Model (보행자 사고확률모형을 이용한 도로안전시설물의 효과도 추정(4차로 일반국도를 대상으로))

  • Park, Gyu-Yeong;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.4 s.90
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2006
  • The ratio of Pedestrians in traffic accident fatality takes up 43% in Korea, which is 2.5 times as much as OECD's average. The traffic accidents features by road type shows that the fatality of the national highway posts the highest due to the accidents of pedestrians. Accordingly, the establishment of safety facilities for pedestrians is expected to increase on the rural roads for the prevention of pedestrian accidents. However, studies on pedestrians have been mainly focused on urban intersections. In Particular, studies on estimating the effectiveness of safety features for pedestrians are very poor. Thus, in this study. the Pedestrian accident probability model on four lane national highway was developed by using logit model. Also, this study analyzed and proposed the effect of facilities as a relative risk by using an odds ratio. As a result of the analysis, the Improvement of sight distance, installing sidewalks and lightings were proven effective alternatives for reducing the pedestrian accidents.

Relationship between Interstate Highway Accidents and Heterogeneous Geometrics by Random Parameter Negative Binomial Model - A case of Interstate Highway in Washington State, USA (확률적 모수를 고려한 음이항모형에 의한 교통사고와 기하구조와의 관계 - 미국 워싱턴 주(州) 고속도로를 중심으로)

  • Park, Minho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2437-2445
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study is finding the relationship between interstate highway accident frequencies and geometrics using Random Parameter Negative Binomial model. Even though it is impossible to take account of the same design criteria to the all segments or corridors on the road in reality, previous research estimated the fixed value of coefficients without considering each segment's characteristic. The drawback of the traditional negative binomial is not to explain the integrated variations in terms of time and the distinct characters specific segment has. This results in under-estimation of the standard error which inflates the t-value and finally, affects the modeling estimation. Therefore, this study tries to find the relationship of accident frequencies with the heterogeneous geometrics using 9-years and 7-interstate highway data in Washington State area. 16-types of geometrics are used to derive the model which is compared with the traditional negative binomial Model to understand which Model is more suitable. In addition, by calculating marginal effect and elasticity, heterogeneous variables' effect to the accidents are estimated. Hopefully, this study will help to estiblish the future policy of geometrics.

Analysis of Ergonomic Design Requirement for Head-Up Display -On the Presented Item and Icon Type & Color- (HUD의 인간공학적 설계 요구 분석 -제시아이템과 제시아이콘 형태 및 색채에 대하여-)

  • Moon, Hyeong-Don;Park, Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 1998
  • 복잡해져가고 있는 현재의 교통상황에서 최근 개발되고 있는 HUD(Head-up Display)의 경우는 기능이 다양하므로 운전중 많은 정보가 운전자에게 제시되어야 한다. 이러한 많은 정보를 제공하고 디스플레이하기에는 HUD의 크기에 한계가 있으며, 운전중 운전자에게 부하를 가중시켜 안전에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 따라서 HUD에 제공될 정보에 대하여 인간공학적 접근과 사용자들의 선호에 맞추는 HMI(Human Machine Interface)연구를 통하여 제시아이템에 대한 중요도 및 우선순위를 파악하고 제시아이템의 아이콘의 형태 및 색채를 결정하는 것은 운전중 안전사고에 대한 발생확률을 감소시킬 수 있을 것이다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는 제시 아이템과 제시 아이콘에 대한 중요도를 파악하였다. 그리고 제시 아이콘의 형태와 색채에 대한 주관적 평가를 통해 그에 대한 아이콘의 형태 및 색채에 대한 새로운 평가 방법에 의한 가이드라인을 제시하고자 한다. 또한 이러한 연구를 통하여 ITS내의 인간요소적인 측면을 고려하여 인간친화적인 ITS구축이 가능할 것이다.

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Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

An Analysis of Insurance Crimes: The Case of Blackmail in Automobile Accidents (보험사기범죄에 대한 분석 고의 교통사고 유도 - 합의금 요구 사건을 중심으로)

  • Yang, Chae-Yeol
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.227-242
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    • 2006
  • This paper analyzes insurance crimes using a game theoretic model. In blackmailing cases involving automobile accidents, insurance criminals deliberately induce innocent drivers(victims) to commit a moving violation such as crossing over the center dividing yellow line, and collide with the victims. After the collision, the criminals and the victims effectively engage in a bargaining game over the amount of the settlement for the damage. Because the penalty for that kind of moving violation is very severe (even criminally prosecuted), the victims do not have much bargaining power. Exploiting the weak bargaining power of the victims, the criminals demand and receive huge compensation (including settlement) from the victims. In the model, it is shown that under the current law agents have perverse incentives leading to insurance crimes. The criminals have incentive to induce car collisions and extract huge settlement from the victims. Based on the analysis, it is suggested that lowering the severity of penalty for certain kind of violation may be needed to prevent insurance crimes, in addition to increasing the crime investigation activities and strengthening punishment for insurance criminals.

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A TDMA-based MAC protocol in hybrid-vehicular communication systems for preventing a chain-reaction collision on a highway (하이브리드 차량 통신 시스템에서 연쇄 추돌 사고 방지를 위한 TDMA 기반 MAC 프로토콜)

  • Oh, Sang-Yeob
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.179-184
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    • 2012
  • A car accident on a highway occurs a chain-reaction collision because of a vehicle's fast velocity. In order to prevent it, the accident vehicle should broadcast a safe message to its neighbors. If there are many neighbor nodes, a frame collision probability is high. To solve this, it was proposed for a system as a previous study to send a safe message without frame-collision using separating channels. However, the separation of multiple channels make feasibility low because of increasing hardware's development cost and complexity. In this paper, we proposes a TDMA-based MAC protocol using a single channel. As a result, we show the frame reception success rate of our protocol was almost the same as the previous protocol.

Design of Vehicle Safety System based on Multi-sensor for Driver's Safety to Fog (안개발생시 운전자의 안전을 위한 멀티센서 기반의 차량 안전 시스템 설계)

  • Park, Gun-Young;Jeon, Min-Ho;Oh, Chang-Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.837-839
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    • 2012
  • When the for occurred, the driver does not get the vision is has difficult on driving. In this case, the probability of occurrence of accidents are very high level. To reduce accidents, this system provide drivers with the safety of ensure to measures that a service inform current situation. in this paper, the crash occur in fog to prevent accident using vehicle safety system to give a alarm and control. The proposed system is installed on the outside of the vehicle, humidity, and ambient light sensors inside the car from the information collected by the system controller for the detection of fog conditions using video equipment and then finally the fog occurs if you do not get the driver's field of events is causing the system.

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