• Title/Summary/Keyword: 공급유도 모형

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The Supply Shortage Effects of Oil Refinery Industry in Korea (국내 정유산업의 공급지장효과 분석)

  • Cho, Yong-Cheol;Lee, Yong-Hwan;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.164-172
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    • 2015
  • As the petroleum products produced from the Oil refinery industry (ORI), a national key industry in Korea, are supplied to other industries as an intermediate goods, the supply shortage of ORI has a large impact on the national economy. This paper attempts to analyze the supply shortage effects which are defined as the negative impact of one won of supply failure in the ORI on the production of other industries. To this end, an inter-industry analysis using an input-output (I-O) table describing inter-industry flow of intermediate goods is applied. More concretely, the supply-driven model is employed over the period 1990-2012. In addition, the results are compared with those for shipbuilding, semiconductor, and steel industries. The results show that the supply shortage effects are computed to be 0.9205 won when using 2012 I-O table. More specifically, the supply shortage effects on chemical products and transportation industries are computed to be 0.2113 and 0.1140, which are relatively large, The supply shortage effect of ORI is smaller than that of steel industry (1.4131 won), but larger than that of shipbuilding industry (0.0586 won) and that of semiconductor industry (0.1111 won).

Evaluation of Emergency Water Supply Plan for Block System of Water Network using WaterGEMS (WaterGEMS모형을 이용한 상수관망 블록시스템의 비상급수계획 평가)

  • Baek, Chun-Woo;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Joong-Hoon;Yoo, Do-Guen;Lee, Kwang-Choon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 2008
  • Hydraulic analysis of water distribution system can be divided into demand-driven analysis and pressure-driven analysis. Demanddriven analysis can give unrealistic results to simulate hydraulic conditions under abnormal operating conditions such as sudden demand increase and pipe failure. In Korea, demand-driven analysis has been used to establish emergency water supply plan in many water projects, but it is necessary to use pressure-driven analysis for establishment of emergency water supply plan. In this study, WaterGEMS model that was developed for pressure-driven analysis is used to evaluation of emergency water supply plan of J city. As the results, it was able to draw up more efficient plan for water supply in small block, and established emergency water supply plan of J city was determined to be appropriate.

Impact Analysis for Changes in Oil Cost of Anchovy Boat Seine Fishery in South Korea (우리나라 기선권현망 멸치어업의 유류비 변동 영향분석)

  • Yun, Sang-Don;Nam, Jongoh
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.517-543
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to analyze economic impacts for changes in the oil cost of the anchovy boat seine fisheries in South Korea. As analytical approach, this study employs the exponential surplus production model to estimate the maximum sustainable yield and also utilizes the bioeconomic model to calculate changes in producer surplus of the anchovy boat seine fisheries under the open access responding to changes in the oil cost. As the result of analysis, increases in the oil cost due to prohibition of duty-free oil supply result in the negative impacts to the producer surplus of the anchovy boat seine fisheries in South Korea. However, increases in the oil cost of the anchovy boat seine fisheries lead voluntary exit to fishermen which can no more run their business. As a result, this study shows that fishing efforts of the anchovy boat seine fisheries reduce under the fishing efforts of the maximum sustainable yield ($F_{MSY}$) and stock of the anchovy increases.

A Study on the Economic Analysis of ESS (ESS의 경제성 분석기법에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Young-Sang;Jeon, Weon-Young;Shin, Yong-Tae;Kim, Jong-Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.679-681
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    • 2014
  • 에너지저장시스템(Energy Stroage System, ESS)은 잉여 전력과 에너지를 필요한 시점에 적절하게 공급할 수 있도록 에너지를 저장해두는 기술로 전기에너지의 픔질 및 효율성을 극대할 수 있는 에너지 활용 시스템이다. 미국을 비롯한 유럽 선진국들은 다양한 ESS 관련 제도정비 및 개선을 통해 ESS 산업의 활성화를 유도하고 있다. 우리나라의 경우, 신재생에너지 확대 정책을 수립하고 에너지 저장기술을 그린에너지 분야의 주요 핵심과제 선정하여 체계적인 육성전략을 추진 중에 있다. 그러나, ESS 도입 및 활성화를 위한 법제도적 기반이 마련되어 있지 않고, ESS도입에 대한 경제적 효과성에 대한 객관적인 기준이 없어, ESS의 보급 및 활성화가 제대로 이루어지지 않고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는, ESS의 보급과 활성화를 위해 효과적으로 ESS의 경제성 분석하기 위한 기법을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 세부적으로는 전기요금 산정방식에 따라 ESS의 운영모형을 정의하고, 운영모형별 경제성을 분석하기 위한 기법을 제시한다. 그리고, 실제 데이터를 활용하여 ESS로 절감할 수 있는 피크 크기를 구할 수 있는 알고리즘을 구현한다. 또한, 저감 피크와 온도, 습도에 대한 회귀 분석을 통하여 최대저감피크를 예측할 수 있는 해법을 제시한다.

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Development of leakage detection model in water distribution networks applying LSTM-based deep learning algorithm (LSTM 기반 딥러닝 알고리즘을 적용한 상수도시스템 누수인지 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Chan Wook;Yoo, Do Guen
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.8
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    • pp.599-606
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    • 2021
  • Water Distribution Networks, one of the social infrastructures buried underground, has the function of transporting and supplying purified water to customers. In recent years, as measurement capability is improved, a number of studies related to leak recognition and detection by applying a deep learning technique based on flow rate data have been conducted. In this study, a cognitive model for leak occurrence was developed using an LSTM-based deep learning algorithm that has not been applied to the waterworks field until now. The model was verified based on the assumed data, and it was found that all cases of leaks of 2% or more can be recognized. In the future, based on the proposed model, it is believed that more precise results can be derived in the prediction of flow data.

Application Examples of Daecheong Dam for Efficient Water Management Based on Integrated Water Management (통합물관리 기반 효율적 물관리를 위한 대청댐 실무적용 사례)

  • Kang, Kwon-Su;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.85-85
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    • 2017
  • 효율적 물관리란 거대한 물순환 과정에서 인간이 편안한 삶을 사는데 필요한 물의 이용효율을 극대화하는 것이다. 과거의 물관리는 이원화된 수량과 수질관리, 수량중심에서는 용수공급과 홍수조절이 주요한 관심사였다. 현재는 과거의 물관리에 친수와 환경을 더한 복잡한 분야로 확대되고 있다. 통합물관리란 물을 최적으로 관리하기 위해 물관리 이해당사자간의 소통과 물 기술의 고도화를 기반으로 기존에 분산된 물관리 구성요소들(시설 정보, 수량 수질 등)을 권역적으로 관리하는 것을 말한다. 본 연구에서는 대청댐 방류에 따른 금강 하류부의 홍수추적을 위해 수행한 댐하류 소유역별 강우량 빈도분석 과정, 용담댐 방류를 고려한 대청댐 홍수도달시간 검토, Poincare Section과 신경망기법을 이용한 수문자료 예측, 추계학적 다변량 해석과 다변량 신경망해석에 의한 대청댐 유입량 산정과정, 보조여수로 건설에 따른 주여수로와 보조여수로간의 연계운영방안, 단계(관심, 주의, 경계, 심각)를 고려한 대청댐 확보수위 산정, 저수지 중장기 운영계획 수립과 댐 운영 기준수위를 결정하기 위해 누가차분방식으로 적용되는 갈수기 유입량 빈도분석에 대한 실무적용 사례를 소개하고자 한다. 강우량 빈도분석 과정은 L-모멘트방법(Hosking과 Wallis, 1993)을 적용하였고, 홍수도달시간 검토는 평균유속, 하류 수위상승 기점 영향검토, 수리학적 모형(FLDWAV, Progressive lag method 등)을 활용하였다. 카오스 이론을 도입하여 대청댐 수문자료의 상관성 검토 및 추계학적 모형을 이용한 모의발생을 유도하여 수문자료 예측을 시행하였다. 추계학적 모형과 신경망모형 연구의 대상은 대청댐으로, 시계열 자료는 댐의 월강우량, 월유입량, 최고기온, 평균기온, 최소기온, 습도, 증발량 등의 자료를 기반으로 하였다. 적용기간은 1981~2009년의 자료를 이용하여 2010년 1월부터 12월까지 12개월 동안의 월유입량을 예측하였다. 수문자료 해석의 기본이 되는 약 30년간의 자료를 이용하여 분석을 실시하였다. 대청댐의 유입량 예측을 위해 적용된 모형으로는 추계학적 모형인 ARMA모형, TF모형, TFN 모형 등이 적용되었고, 또한 신경망 모형의 종류인 다층 퍼셉트론, PCA모형 등을 활용하여 실측치와 가장 가깝게 근사화시키는 방법론을 찾고자 하였다. 또한, 기존여수로와 보조여수로 연계운영을 위해 3차원 수치해석을 통한 댐하류 안정성 검토 및 확보수위 산정을 통해 단계(관심, 주의, 경계, 심각)별로 대처가 가능한 수위를 산정하였다.

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The Economic Effects of the New and Renewable Energies Sector (신재생에너지 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Park, So-Yeon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2014
  • The Korean government made the 2nd Energy Basic Plan to achieve 11% of new and renewable energies distribution rate until 2035 as a response to cope with international discussion about greenhouse gas emission reduction. Renewable energies include solar thermal, photovoltaic, bioenergy, wind power, small hydropower, geothermal energy, ocean energy, and waste energy. New energies contain fuel cells, coal gasification and liquefaction, and hydrogen. As public and private investment to enhance the distribution of new and renewable energies, it is necessary to clarify the economic effects of the new and renewable energies sector. To the end, this study attempts to apply an input-output analysis and analyze the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector using 2012 input-output table. Three topics are dealt with. First, production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Second, supply shortage effects are analyzed employing supply-driven model. Lastly, price pervasive effects are investigated applying Leontief price model. The results of this analysis are as follows. First, one won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector induces 2.1776 won of production and 0.7080 won of value-added. Moreover, the employment-inducing effect of one billion won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector is estimated to be 9.0337 persons. Second, production shortage cost from one won of supply failure in new and renewable energies sector is calculated to be 1.6314 won, which is not small. Third, the impact of the 10% increase in new and renewable energies rate on the general price level is computed to be 0.0123%, which is small. This information can be utilized in forecasting the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector.

Multi-Agent Model and Simulation for the Dynamics of Housing Market (주택시장변동 분석을 위한 멀티에이전트 모형의 개발 및 시뮬레이션)

  • Moon, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2009
  • The prompt recovery of housing market in Korea became the national task, for which tools that can analyze the influence that changing situation of housing market and new policy may have on the housing market needs to be developed. Thus, this research intends to develop Multi-Agent Housing Market Model and simulation system in Jinju City as a study area. Analyzing the local housing market of Jinju City, then multi-agent model of housing market that consolidates 3 sub-models, house choice model, hedonic model of house price and location choice model is developed. Moreover in order to develop simulation system the model is programmed in the virtual space of which the size is $150{\times}100$ cell including physical shape of city such as road, urban facilities, land use, etc. With the system, simulations are performed to confirm the impact of urban development on the pattern of residential location. As a result, it is found that the residential location can not be easily induced when only road, commercial and convenient facilities are supplied. However, it is also found that since supplying green results in very many residences, arrangement of infrastructure and environmental factor should be considered at the same time for urban development. As conclusion, it is confirmed that the model and simulation system developed in this research smoothly works to be utilized for the analysis of diverse policy experiment and housing market.

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Optimal Life Cycle design of Water Pipe System using Genetic Algorithm (상수관망 최적 생애주기 설계를 위한 유전알고리즘의 적용)

  • Lee, Seungyub;Yoo, Do Guen;Jung, Donghwi;Kim, Joong Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.4216-4227
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    • 2015
  • In this study, a model is developed based on Life Cycle Energy Analysis (LCEA) method with Genetic Algorithm (GA) to determine optimal diameter of Water Distribution System (WDS). For hydraulic analysis the EPANET2.0 program is linked with developed model, pipe-aging equation and pipe-breakage equation are built in to developed model to simulate pipe change through life cycle. The model is then applied to two sample WDSs for optimal energy design. After determining optimal diameter for each WDS, the total cost is calculated based on determined diameter and compared with well-known optimal diameter set of each WDS. Results show that optimal energy design of WDSs through the developed model can be an alternative option for optimal design of WDSs for reducing energy with lower in cost.

Analysis of the Public's Intention to Use the Government's Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Services: Focusing on Public Values and Extended Technology Acceptance Model (정부의 인공지능(AI) 기반 서비스에 대한 국민의 사용 의향 분석: 공공가치와 확장된 기술수용모형을 중심으로)

  • Han, MyungSeong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.388-402
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    • 2021
  • This study utilizes the theoretical framework of Extended Technology Acceptance Model to understand the governmental factors that affect the people's intention to use AI services. With the result of the analysis, as the expected impact of AI on fields related to effectiveness and accountability becomes higher, the intention of using AI service also got higher. In addition, the easier usability of e-government, the more active disclosure of their personal information, and the higher expectations for a hyper-connected society, their intention to use AI services became higher as well.