• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.420-426
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• 2018

The purpose of this paper is to examine the business cycle in the Jeju region and what differences exist in relation to the nation as a whole, to calculate the relative importance between the random walk stochastic trend and cyclical factor, and to find out its causes and implications. Results of empirical analysis found that the characteristics of the business cycle in the Jeju region were as follows: First, the Jeju region, which is likely to have a growth component of the economy such as technological development and the accumulation of capital, was projected to have a possibility of high growth due to a greater proportion of the stochastic trend factor(46.8%) than the entire country(27.8%). Secondly, employment fluctuation in Jeju, which varies from 0.007 to 0.058 depending on the model, was lowest compared to the fluctuation of other indicators. The employment market in Jeju remained firm, showing that it is not smooth enough to create new jobs despite the production growth in industry. Third, the tourism industry was acting as a stabilizing factor, whereas the mining and manufacturing production was the opposite of tourism industry. This implies that the mining and manufacturing production was based on a weak foundation.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.31-59
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• 2018

This study examines how the rate of transition between employment and non-employment changes with the business cycle using monthly panel data constructed from 2000-2013 Korea Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS). In particular, we investigate whether the transition rates are different across demographic groups when the labor market is depressed. We find that, as the labor market weakens, the transition rate into non-employment significantly increases. The rates of transition into non-employment are substantially higher for female, older and less educated groups than those for male, prime-aged and more educated groups.

• Journal of Legislation Research
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• no.44
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• pp.655-688
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• 2013

Most of all the transfer of undertakings in such a service provision business as labour-intensive operation creates uncertainty of employment, aggravates terms of employment and breaks a trade union. However there are no regulations in Korea to protect employees from these undesirable situations. On the other hand Great Britain has introduced the concept of a transfer of undertakings by service provision change in 2006. It was intended to remove or at least alleviate the uncertainties and difficulties created by the need under TUPE 1981 and EU Directive to establish a transfer of a stable economic identity which retained its identity in the hands of the alleged transferee. In contrast to the words used to define transfer in the 1981 Regulations 'service provision change' is a wholly new statutory concept and distinguished from the economic entity. The new provisions seems to be straightforwards and the circumstances in which service provision change is established are clearly set out in Regulations. In this context there is no need for a judicially prescribed multi-factorial approach, as advanced by European Court of Justice like Spijkers test. The new concept of service provision change apply even though there are some minor difference or differences between the nature of the tasks carried on after service provision change as compared with before it. A commonsense and pragmatic approach is required and It is enough only to ask whether the activities carried on by the alleged transferee are fundamentally or essentially the same as those carried out by the alleged transfer. TUPE 2006 of Great Britain far exceeding the scope of the Acquired Rights Directive is full of suggestions as a model of legislation to secure a stable employment itself and favorable and fair conditions of employment. More active efforts are needed for lawmaking to prohibit a dismissal and vary conditions of employment for the reason of the transfer of undertakings itself.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.73-101
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• 2021

Employing bunching estimators of Cengiz et al. (2019) for data from the "Economically Active Population Survey," this paper estimates the effect of minimum wage increases on the volume of waged employment for the period 2009-2019. A bunching estimator, which exploits yearly changes in the hourly wage distribution due to the minimum wage hike, can be easily applied to the Korean labor market, which adopts the yearly single national minimum wage. The estimation results suggest that an increase in the annual minimum wage during the period from 2009 to 2019 had a negative effect on the volume of waged employment. A 10% increase in the (real) minimum wage leads to a 1.42~1.74% decrease in the volume of waged employment. Disemployment effects of minimum wage hikes are greater in the sector with a higher proportion of minimum wage workers. It is necessary to carefully consider disemployment effects in determining the level of the minimum wage.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.85-107
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• 2010

In this article, since the financial crisis, Korean employment movement to service market, productivity gap between manufacturing and service industry was significant compared with other countries. The results from productivity decomposition show that negative structural changes, which employment increase is contrary to the productivity, have been intensified since the financial crisis. It is caused from a different developing pattern. While the proportion of employment was reduced, productivity has improved in manufacturing industry. While the developing was due to the high increase of the employment proportion in service industry, productivity was not improved significantly. This tendency is clearly revealed in international comparisons. In Korea the negative trend of structural changes in service industry are intensified compared to manufacturing industry after the financial crisis.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.5-36
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• 1999

본 논문은 우리나라 청소년 인구의 장기적 경제활동참여율 변동추이와 고용(실업)구조에 있어서의 변화에 관한 연구이다. 청소년층의 경제활동참여와 취업은 학교교육의 이수, 군복무, 결혼·출산을 통한 자신의 가족형성 등 일련의 생애전이과정(life-course transitin)과의 긴밀한 연계속에서 이루어지며 따라서 집단적으로는 연령단계에 따라서 큰 변화를 보인다. 본 논문에서는 먼저 지난 20여년간(1980년대-1990대) 청소년층의 연령단계별 경제활동참여 및 취업률이 어떻게 변화해 왔는가를 살펴본다. 청소년기에는 학교에서 노동시장으로의 진입과정(school-to-work transition)을 포함하고 있기 때문에 청소년층의 경제활동참여율 및 취업률은 무엇보다 동 연령집단의 취학률 및 진학률의 변화와 직접적으로 연결되어 있다. 본 논문에서 제시되는 자료에 의하면 지난 20여년간 우리나라 청소년층의 고등학교 및 대학진학률은 지속적이고 급격하게 상승하고 있었던 것으로 나타나고 있으며, 따라서 이러한 변화가 그들의 경제활동참여율 및 고용구조에 있어서의 변화에 미친 영향을 경험적 자료를 통하여 살펴본다. 1980년대 초반이후 우리나라 학교교육체제에 있어서의 변화가 청소년층의 취업구조에 미친 가장 주요한 영향 중의 하나는 높은 대학진학률에 따른 청소년 노동력의 고학력화와 그에 따른 고(高)실업의 문제이다. 본 논문에서는 사회구조적 요인과 고실업을 낳는 노동시장에 있어서의 불평등한 기회구조에 관한 이론적 논의와 경험적 증거들을 제시한다.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.3-19
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• 2017

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of regional industrial diversity on regional business cycle response to national volatility. We employed mean group and pooled mean group estimators of panel vector error-correction models in order to control unobserved heterogeneity of the port cities, such as Pusan, Ulsan and Incheon. The results show that in various industrial regions, short-term fluctuations in the unemployment rate are small compared to other regions. On the contrary, long-term volatility of manufacturing production index is low in those regions.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.1-38
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• 2020

In this research, we explore the effects of changes in industrial structure due to industrial restructuring on employment and growth in the Korean economy. To that end, we first investigate the impact of industrial restructuring on employment through Lilien's sectoral shift hypothesis, considering the dependence of industrial restructuring on business cycles. As a result of the analysis, we find that changes in the industrial structure have exerted a short-term effect of increasing unemployment, and that the effects of industrial restructuring are even greater during the economic downturn period. In light of these points, Lilien's sectoral shift hypothesis seems to be valid in Korea. Next, we examine the effect of industrial restructuring on economic growth in Korea by analyzing which one, between the Kuznetz hypothesis and the Baumol effect, is dominant. Empirical results reveal that the mid- to long-term effect of industrial restructuring on GDP growth is significant, which is in accordance with the Kuznets hypothesis, where resource allocation along with industrial restructuring to sectors with high productivity spurs economic growth.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.1-17
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• 1989

본고(本稿)에서는 최근 미국연방준비은행(美國聯邦準備銀行)의 Hallman Porter Small이 개발한 인플레추정방법, 즉 화폐수량식에 장기균형유통속도(長期均衡流通速度)($V^*$), 잠재생산력(潛在生産力)($Q^*$), 장기균형기준물가(長期均衡基準物價)(P*)등의 개념을 적용하여 인플레식(式)을 추정하는 방법을 우리나라에 적용하여 보았다. 이를 위해 $V^*$는 인플레의 변동에 의해 구조적(構造的)으로 변동(變動)될 수 있다는 점과 $Q^*$는 고용(雇傭)뿐 아니라 투자의 함수라고 가정하고 자본스톡 및 $Q^*$를 내생적으로 추정하는 등으로 $V^*$, $Q^*$의 개념을 재정립하였다. 추정결과(推定結果)에 의하면 87년초 이후부터 실질생산(實質生産) 잠재(潛在)GNP를 초과하게 되었으며 통화공급(通貨供給) 역시 확대되어 $P^*$가 P를 넘어서는 현상, 즉 물가상승압력(物價上昇壓力)이 누적되어 왔으며, 이에 따른 물가불안이 해소되기에는 정책대응여하에 따라 상당한 기간이 소요될 수도 있을 것으로 냐타났다. 즉, 시뮬레이션결과 종합해 보면 물가상승압력(物價上昇壓力)의 완화를 위해서는 투자진작을 통한 잠재생산력(潛在生産力)의 확충과 아울러 긴축기조(緊縮基調)의 유지라는 일견(一見) 상반(相反)되는 정책기조(政策基調)를 동시에 추진해 나가야 할 것으로 나타났다. 현재의 경기국면에 대한 대응책으로는 통화공급(通貨供給)을 확대시키는 단순한 총량적 정책보다는 긴축기조(緊縮基調)를 유지하면서도 통화(通貨)의 신축적(伸縮的)인 공급이 투자(投資) 고용(雇傭) 등의 생산부문(生産部門)으로 원활히 흐를 수 있도록 하는 동시에 금융구조(金融構造) 경제구조(經濟構造)를 개선해 나가는 미시적이고도 포괄적인 정책이 요구된다 하겠다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.215-242
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• 2010

This study constructs a bayesian neoclassical DSGE model that applies oil usage. The model includes technology shocks, oil price shocks, and shocks to energy policies as exogenous driving forces. First, this study aims to analyze the roles of these exogenous shocks in the Korean business cycle. Second, this study examines the effects of long-term changes in the energy consumption structure, including the reduction in oil use as a share of energy consumption and improvement in oil efficiency. In the case of oil price shocks, results show that these shocks exert recessionary pressure on the economy in line with those obtained in the previous literature. On the other hand, shocks to energy policies, which reduce oil consumption per capital, result in opposite consequences to oil price shocks, decreasing oil consumption. Also, counterfactual exercises show that long-term changes in the energy consumption structure would mitigate the contractionary effects of oil price shocks.