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A Study of Characteristics of Business Cycle in the Jeju Region

제주지역 경기변동의 특성 연구

  • Kang, Min-Seo (Department of Economics, Jeju National University) ;
  • Kang, Gi-Choon (Department of Economics, Jeju National University)
  • Received : 2017.12.18
  • Accepted : 2018.01.05
  • Published : 2018.01.31

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the business cycle in the Jeju region and what differences exist in relation to the nation as a whole, to calculate the relative importance between the random walk stochastic trend and cyclical factor, and to find out its causes and implications. Results of empirical analysis found that the characteristics of the business cycle in the Jeju region were as follows: First, the Jeju region, which is likely to have a growth component of the economy such as technological development and the accumulation of capital, was projected to have a possibility of high growth due to a greater proportion of the stochastic trend factor(46.8%) than the entire country(27.8%). Secondly, employment fluctuation in Jeju, which varies from 0.007 to 0.058 depending on the model, was lowest compared to the fluctuation of other indicators. The employment market in Jeju remained firm, showing that it is not smooth enough to create new jobs despite the production growth in industry. Third, the tourism industry was acting as a stabilizing factor, whereas the mining and manufacturing production was the opposite of tourism industry. This implies that the mining and manufacturing production was based on a weak foundation.

본 논문의 목적은 임의보행 확률추세를 고려하였을 때 제주지역의 경기변동이 어떻게 움직이며 전국과 어떤 차이점이 있는지, 확률추세요인과 순환요인의 상대적 중요도는 어떻게 되는 지, 그리고 그 원인이 무엇인지를 찾고 그 시사점을 도출하는데 있다. 실증분석을 통해 발견된 제주지역 경기변동의 특성은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 제주지역 경기변동에서 확률추세 요인이 차지하는 비중이 46.8%로 전국의 27.8%에 비해 큰 것으로 추론해 볼 때 기술발전, 자본축적 등과 같이 경제의 장기적인 성장 요소가 작용하는 제주지역의 높은 성장 가능성을 발견할 수 있었다. 둘째, 제주지역 고용 변동성은 모형에 따라 0.007에서 0.058로 다른 지표들의 변동성들과 비교하였을 때 가장 낮게 나타났다. 제주지역의 고용시장은 전체적으로 경직되어 있어 산업의 생산 증대에 따른 새로운 고용 창출이 원활하게 이루어지지 않고 있다는 것을 보여주고 있었다. 셋째, 3차 산업인 관광산업은 경기변동을 안정화시키는 요인으로 작용하고 있는 반면에 2차 산업인 광공업생산은 관광산업의 결과와 반대로 나타나 관광산업과 달리 광공업생산 분야는 기반이 약하다는 것을 추측할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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