• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경영위험

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The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Effects of CEO's Entrepreneurship in Small and Medium Enterprises and Goal Orientation of Employees on Collective Efficacy: Approaching Structural Equation Model (중소기업 경영자의 기업가정신과 조직구성원의 목표지향성이 조직효능감에 미치는 영향: 구조방정식 모형 접근)

  • Kang, Sung-Doo;Kang, Young-Soon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.439-452
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the best structural model among CEO's entrepreneurship(innovation proactiveness and risk-taking) in small and medium enterprises, group goal orientation(learning and performance goal orientation) and collective efficacy of employees. The result of verifying the best structural model is as follows. First. it indicated that innovation proactiveness of CEO's entrepreneurship positively affected group learning goal orientation and group performance goal orientation of employees while it did not affect risk-taking. Second, it indicated that group learning goal orientation and group performance goal orientation of employees positively affected collective efficacy. Third, it indicated that CEO's innovation proactiveness positively affected collective efficacy through group goal orientation of employees(learning and performance goal orientation). In this study, we targed 162 CEOs and 486 employees in small and medium enterprises located in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Jeju and applied the reponses of employees to 162 enterprises by using the average value measured in three divisions of each enterprise. We conducted a survey as a study method and conducted covariance structure analysis to verify the study model. Implications of the research are as below. First, we provided academic discussions by expanding the study category of goal orientation with an individual level into a group level. Second, we expanded the study category with individual goal orientation and collective efficacy into group goal orientation. Third, we suggested the possibility of another mechanism's effect between entrepreneurship and collective efficacy.

An Analysis Acceptance Factors for the Early Diffusion of Mulberry Protected Cultivation (오디 시설재배 조기 확산을 위한 수용요인분석)

  • Kim, Woong;Lee, Ki Kwon;Yu, Young Seok;Choi, Don Woo
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.29-56
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    • 2014
  • This study conduct for 200 farmhouses who didn't accept new technology like mulberry Protected Cultivation. Through research model combined Innovation diffusion theory(IDT) and Technology Acceptance Model(TAM), it analysed which factors affect for new technology acceptance and diffusion. To verify relations between external factors which affect new technology acceptance and diffusion by endogenous variables such as perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use and perceived riskiness, with external factors, mothed used to analyse it. Most of adopted variables were showed positive results except for individual innovativeness and reliability. Based on the results of these analyses, we can suggest rapid. First, technique diffusion agents should have heighten the level of expertise and technology, and build up the network to solve difficulties with technique supply with mulberry farmhouses. Secondly farmhouses of mulberry outdoor cultivation showed positive attitude protected cultivation, but negative attitude it bacause of the burden of facilities investment. Thus, it is needed to capital investment for individual farmhouse hold. Finally, through cultivation technology education, field trip about mulberry protected cultivation, we can diffuse technology receive for negative farmers.

Analysis of Wikipedia Citations in Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles (학술논문에서의 위키피디아 인용에 관한 연구)

  • Shim, Wonsik;Byun, Jeayeon;Kim, Minjung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.247-264
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    • 2013
  • Wikipedia represents a revolutionary experiment in the sense that it allows anonymous Internet users to contribute, change, and edit Encyclopedia contents used by tens of millions of people. While a very popular information source on the Internet, because of its questionable information credibility and accuracy, citing Wikipedia articles is being regarded as a risky behavior for scholars. The present study identified 282 scholarly articles from Thomson Reuters' Web of Science citation database that cite Wikipedia at least once. Out of the millions of articles indexed in Web of Science, the proportion of articles citing Wikipedia is extremely small. On the other hand, the numbers are showing a marked increase since 2011. Wikipedia citing articles are distributed in subject areas, such as library and information science, business, psychology, education, and communication more often than in other areas. The distribution of a total of 577 citations from 267 articles for which we were able to obtain full texts shows that Wikipedia is being cited mainly in studies of Wikipedia (139 citations, 24.1%) or as a ready reference source (331 citations, 57.4%). At the same time, about 15% of total citations turned out to be cases of potentially risky behaviors in which Wikipedia is being cited as a crucial basis or data source for study.

The Influence of Mediating Effects of Social Capital on Social Entrepreneurship (사회적 기업가정신에 대한 사회적 자본의 매개효과가 사회적 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hyung-Ju;Jeon, In-Oh
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.55-66
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to examine whether the social capital supported by social enterprises play a role in ensuring self-sustaining and sustainable growth, and to examine whether the mediating effect of social capital have a central effect on social performance. The results of this study are as follows: Innovation and orientation-to-social-value of social entrepreneurship have positive effects on structural capital, and positive influence on cognitive capital and relational capital, but innovation only has no effect. In addition, social entrepreneurship is partially mediated by structural capital. In the mediating effect between social entrepreneurship and cognitive capital, only the risk-taking and the orientation-to-social-value have a partial mediation effect on cognitive capital. However, only the initiative of relational capital was found to have a full mediating effect. And social capital has a positive effect on social performance as a whole. In conclusion, considering that the realization of economic purpose and other social purpose of social enterprises will help to develop and create jobs in the local community, and that they are engaged in business activities in a poor management environment, to provide policy support for inducing high value-added industries through industry-specific collaborations.

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A Study on the Function and Intention of the Health Care Application in the Analysis of Smartphone Usage Behavior (스마트폰 사용행태 분석과 헬스케어 어플리케이션의 기능 및 사용의도에 대한 연구)

  • Yang, Jae Min;Hyun, Byung Hwan;Ok, Jun Woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.303-315
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    • 2020
  • The development of ICT is spreading various contents to enhance health care and management efficiency through convergence between mobile and healthcare, but it indicates consumer acceptance and imbalance of mobile healthcare, and there is a lack of empirical research on functions and acceptability required according to consumer behavior and characteristics. This study sought to understand whether users were aware of and how to address the risks associated with smartphone use, and to conduct research on the acceptability and function and price of healthcare applications. For the purpose of the study, the data prepared in depth 1:1 survey for those who participated in and attended the 'BIO 2018 in Boston' exhibition was used for the actual analysis. The collected sample data included frequency analysis, technical statistical analysis, speech only correlation, chi square test, one-way analysis, and accuracy test. As a result, the more you realize the wrong attitude, the higher the awareness of risk and willingness to take action to solve problems. Second, it is necessary to increase satisfaction with the functions of healthcare apps, as well as to utilize health care and healthcare apps. Third, focus should be placed on systems or functional implementations centered on user behavior changes. Fourth, it is necessary to develop services that can enhance visual motivation. This study is meaningful in that it identifies a variety of consumer characteristics and provides directions for development of functions, and can be used as a basis for providing efficient healthcare applications in the future.

an Influence of Stem Cell Study on Life Insurance Industry (줄기세포연구와 생명보험산업에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Han-Su;Cho, Sung-Moon;Park, Sung-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korean life insurance medical association
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    • v.25
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2006
  • 생명공학의 시대로 일컬어 지고 있는 오늘날, 재생의학 분야에서는 난치성 질환 치료를 목적으로 활발한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 특히, 줄기세포를 이용한 세포 대체치료 관련 연구는 최근 국내 황우석 박사의 체세포 핵이식 배아세포주 확립에 이르기 까지 괄목할 만한 발전을 보여 주고 있다. 이와 관련해 생명보험산업에 적잖은 파장이 예상되며, 생명보험사 내부적으로 기존에 판매된 상품의 사차손 관리와 함께 급속도로 발전하는 줄기세포 연구에 직접적으로 대응하는 상품개발, 언더라이팅, 지급 심사 등 보험사 내외에서의 전방위적인 변화가 필요하다는 문제 제기가 있다. 줄기세포란 조직 분화 과정에서 볼 수 있는 세포이며 근육 뼈 뇌 피부 등 신체의 어떤 기관으로도 전환할 수 있는 만능세포로서, 간 폐 심장 등 구체적 장기를 형성하기 이전에 분화를 멈출 배아 단계의 세포를 말한다. 한편, 성체줄기세포는 조직이나 기관의 분화된 세포들 사이에서 발견되는 미분화 세포로써, 자기 스스로 증식할 수 있으며, 조직이나 기관의 특수한 기능을 가지고 있는 세포로 분화할 수 있는 능력을 가진 신체줄기세포를 말한다. 배아줄기세포와 생체줄기세포를 통한 장기이식 등 난치병 정복은 윤리적, 사회적으로 많은 논란이 예상되며, 기술적으로도 해결해야 할 문제점들이 산적해 있기 때문에 아직은 요원한 것이 사실이다. 현재 유럽 대부분의 나라와 미국에서는 인간 배아의 복제가 금지되어 있으며, 일본 정부는 연구용 배아 복제를 제한적으로 허용하고 있다. 하지만, 우리 나라의 경우 2005년 1월에 '생명윤리 및 안전에 관한 법'이 발효되었지만 정부는 관련 부작용에 대한 깊은 고찰 없이 전폭적인 지원들 약속하고 있는 실정이다. 줄기세포 연구의 발달로 인해 인류가 난치병 치료의 첫 장을 열었다고 하더라도 그 영향이 당장 보험사에 미친다고 할 수는 없다. 왜냐하면 앞으로 이러한 신기술이 실제 의료행위에 적용되기 위해서는 여러 단계의 안정화 작업과 임상시험이 필요한데 이러한 작업이 기술적으로 어렵고 그 시간도 만만치 않게 걸리기 때문이다. 또한, 보험사의 보장은 크게 사망/수술/입원/암/기타보장으로 구별할 수 있는데, 줄기세포 연구의 발달과 관련이 있는 보장이 제한되어 있어 보험사에 미치는 영향이 당장 우려할 만한 수준이라 할 수 없다. 하지만 만약 치료용 줄기세포 배양으로 인한 장기 기관의 이식이나 손상세포의 대체 등과 같은 의학신기술의 예상 외로 급격하게 발전한다면 보험사의 Risk 관리에 상당한 저해요인으로 작용할 것으로 판단된다. 특히 진단 입원 수술로 대표되는 생존보장에 대한 사차 Risk 및 사차손의 급증이나 역선택 증가는 보험사의 경영수지 악화를 유발하여 보험산업 전반에 위험으로 작용할 수도 있다. 따라서, 장기적인 안목으로 업계 공동의 대응이 필요하고, 각 사에서도 상품개발, 언더라이팅, 지급심사 간의 긴밀한 협조가 요구된다. 생명보험산업의 Risk 관리는 기존의 시장환경에 영향을 받는 비차, 이차중심에서 보험회사가 어느 정도 관리를 통해 적정규모를 유지할 수 있는 사차로 그 중심축이 이동하고 있다. 보험산업이 계속 활력을 갖고 성장하기 위해서는 체계적인 Risk나 관리가 핵심일 것이며, 보험사의 사차 Risk의 중요성이 더욱 커져 가고 있는 현실에서 거시적으로 의학신기술 발달 등 위험요인에 대해 미리 분석하고 이에 대한 대비책 마련이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

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Business impact analysis for disaster management of large underground limestone mine (석회석광산 지하대형공간의 재난관리를 위한 업무영향력 분석)

  • Lee, Seong-Min;Kim, Sun-Myung;Lee, Yeon-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.613-623
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    • 2013
  • As Limestone mines have been operated with various environmental, societal and managemental problems depending on their characteristics and developing methods, many great efforts have been applied to solve these problems. Installing the mining facilities underground is one of the successful efforts to keep the sustainable limestone mine development. This effort could reduce these problems. However, unfortunately it made an side effect of constructing a large underground space in mining site. Moreover, this space caused a necessity of various disaster managements for the safety of workers and facilities. This study introduces the priority list of a limestone mining process if there are disasters in underground mining site. This result is coming from the risk assessment and business impact analysis on survey data which were obtained from the miners of that particular limestone mine. According to the result, the highest risk is 'disregard of safety guidelines in crushing & classifier process'. The result also shows the highest priority business, above all things, is 'a pit linked work of in & out process'.

An Audit Model for Information Security of Hospital Information System (병원정보시스템에서의 정보보호를 위한 감리모형)

  • Yu, Wan Hee;Han, Ki Joon;Kim, Dong Soo;Kim, Hee Wan
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.7
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    • pp.133-145
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    • 2014
  • Recently, Hospital information systems have the large databases by wide range offices for hospital management, health care to improve the quality of care. However, hospital information systems for information security measures are insufficient. Therefore, when we construct the hospital information system, we have to audit the information security measures for them, and we have to manage the ISMS(Information Security Management System) to maintain the information protection level through the risk managements. In this paper, we suggested the hospital information security audit model for the protection of health information privacy by the current hospital information systems, information security management system(ISMS), and hospital information security requirements and threats. We derived the check items compared with ISO27799 reflected the characteristics of the hospital. We classified the security domains as the physical, technical, administrative domain, and derived the check items for information security. We also designed the check lists by mapping the ISO27799 risk management process to improve the security and efficiency simultaneously. Our model by the five-point scale survey of IT experts was verified the suitability with the average of 4.91 points.

Effects of Biased Awareness of Security Policies on Security Compliance Behavior (보안정책에 대한 편향적 사고가 보안준수 행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Heo, Jun;Ahn, Seongjin
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2020
  • From the perspective of compliance with security policies by members of the organization, which is a major cause of security incidents, this study presented biased thinking as factors that affect compliance with security policies and verified the following: First, the impact of biased thinking on security policies on compliance with security policies is verified. Second, the participation of management, perceived risk, education and punishment of management will verify the adjustment effect of increasing or decreasing biased thinking. Finally, we have verified that compliance attitudes have a significant impact on compliance behavior. To this end, 157 people were surveyed, statistical analysis of research models and structural equations, and conformity analysis were conducted. Studies have shown that biased thinking has a negative effect on the attitude of compliance with information security. In addition, it was analyzed that the attitude of compliance with information security policy increases policy compliance behavior. On the other hand, the higher the perceived risk of information security, the lower the bias was the adjustment effect, but management's participation, education and punishment were found to have no adjustment effect.