• Title/Summary/Keyword: 개연성 평가

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Comparisons of the Assessment of Ecological Landscape Design and the Apartment Skylines (생태학적 조경설계 평가와 아파트 스카이라인의 비교)

  • Kwon, Sang-Zoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.90-100
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    • 2003
  • 본 연구는 건축고도제한에 의해 생태학적 조경설계는 어떻게 통제되며, 또한 생태학적 조경 설계가 무엇인가를 구명하는 것이다. 따라서 두 가지 다른 단지를 비교하여 건축물 스카이라인이 주변경관과 조화로운 심미적 설계를 가능하게 하는 영향에 관하여 고찰할 수 있다. 이 비교를 통하여 스카이라인 통제가 아파트단지 계획과 설계에서 생태학적 조경설계에 영향을 주는가를 검증하게 될 것이며, 스카이라인이 통제된 아파트단지가 조경시설 설계에 있어서 전체적, 역동적, 반응적, 직관적 접근을 할 때 상대적으로 우선성을 표출할 수 있을 것이다. 아파트단지 계획·설계에 있어 건물고도제한이 적절하게 검토되어 스카이라인의 통제를 더 강하게 할수록 아파트단지에서 만들어진 조경환경의 특성이 강조되고 강화한 경관이 더 조화롭게 된다는 점에서 경관에 유용하고 편익이 있다. 생태학적 조경설계의 평가사항은 자기 지속적, 자연적·문화적 정체성, 개연적 외관, 생태학적 접근으로 이뤄진다는 전제 아래 세부사항 18개 항목을 표출하였다. 또한 스카이라인 통제는 자연적 경관을 보전하고 수목이 단지의 안팎으로 자연스럽게 펼쳐지는 녹지 네트워크와 야생 동물 코리도를 획득하기 위하여 독특한 경관을 설계하고 개성적인 것으로 도출하여 조화로운 심미성을 이룩하는데 유용하다는 것을 계량적으로 표출하였다. 아파트단지의 경관에서 의미 있는 것은 다양한 접근으로 설계되고 건물 스카이라인 통제방법을 강화함으로써 관리되는 스카이라인의 실루엣이 다양하고 개성적 형태를 표출한다는 것을 보여준다. 결과적으로 스카이라인의 영향과 생태학적 조경설계가 계량적 요소에 의해 상대적으로 비교될 수 있으며, 생태학적 조경설계의 평가시설지표는 보다 세분화됨으로써 전체적인 설계요소의 강도에 영향을 줄 수 있다.

An Empirical Method Identifying Real-time Stagflation Pressure in Korea: Focusing on Activating Monthly Data (한국 스태그플레이션 평가기법에 관한 연구: 월별자료이용을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jeong Wook;Kang, Sam Mo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.147-171
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    • 2012
  • Even though many people loosely term a period of high inflation combined with stagnation "stagflation", it has been very difficult for us to find a more detailed and theoretical definition for such a period. In addition, most economic policy makers have faced some uncertainty and difficulty in identifying stagflation periods through analyzing a lot of economic data. This paper deeply researches the literature on specific definitions of stagflation and provides an empirical method by which we can systematically identify real-time stagflation pressure. Under this method, real-time stagflation pressure can be evaluated as a complex index by using both extensive monthly economic data indicating economic conditions or inflation pressure and a logit regression model. As a result of applying this method to the first half of 2008 in Korea when there was much debate as to whether the Korean economy was experiencing a corresponding stagflation or not, this period is not now evaluated as having been a stagflation period. This paper provides some implications. Namely, we need to put more emphasis on stabilizing inflation expectations.

Scheme on Environmental Risk Assessment and Management for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration in Sub-seabed Geological Structures in Korea (이산화탄소 해양 지중저장사업의 환경위해성평가관리 방안)

  • Choi, Tae-Seob;Lee, Jung-Suk;Lee, Kyu-Tae;Park, Young-Gyu;Hwang, Jin-Hwan;Kang, Seong-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2009
  • Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology has been regarded as one of the most possible and practical option to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) and consequently to mitigate the climate change. Korean government also have started a 10-year R&D project on $CO_2$ storage in sea-bed geological structure including gas field and deep saline aquifer since 2005. Various relevant researches are carried out to cover the initial survey of suitable geological structure storage site, monitoring of the stored $CO_2$ behavior, basic design of $CO_2$ transport and storage process and the risk assessment and management related to $CO_2$ leakage from engineered and geological processes. Leakage of $CO_2$ to the marine environment can change the chemistry of seawater including the pH and carbonate composition and also influence adversely on the diverse living organisms in ecosystems. Recently, IMO (International Maritime Organization) have developed the risk assessment and management framework for the $CO_2$ sequestration in sub-seabed geological structures (CS-SSGS) and considered the sequestration as a waste management option to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This framework for CS-SSGS aims to provide generic guidance to the Contracting Parties to the London Convention and Protocol, in order to characterize the risks to the marine environment from CS-SSGS on a site-specific basis and also to collect the necessary information to develop a management strategy to address uncertainties and any residual risks. The environmental risk assessment (ERA) plan for $CO_2$ storage work should include site selection and characterization, exposure assessment with probable leak scenario, risk assessment from direct and in-direct impact to the living organisms and risk management strategy. Domestic trial of the $CO_2$ capture and sequestration in to the marine geologic formation also should be accomplished through risk management with specified ERA approaches based on the IMO framework. The risk assessment procedure for $CO_2$ marine storage should contain the following components; 1) prediction of leakage probabilities with the reliable leakage scenarios from both engineered and geological part, 2) understanding on physio-chemical fate of $CO_2$ in marine environment especially for the candidate sites, 3) exposure assessment methods for various receptors in marine environments, 4) database production on the toxic effect of $CO_2$ to the ecologically and economically important species, and finally 5) development of surveillance procedures on the environmental changes with adequate monitoring techniques.

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Estimation of CO2 Abatement Cost Considering Allocative Inefficiency of Inputs for the Korean Steel Industry: A Cost Function Approach (국내 철강업의 생산요소 간 비효율적 배분을 고려한 CO2 저감비용 산정 및 분석: 비용함수접근법)

  • Lee, Myunghun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.453-472
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    • 2014
  • Analyzing the effects of carbon emissions trading, which is scheduled to be introduced in Korea in 2015, requires an accurate assessment of $CO_2$ abatement costs by both industries and firms. Firms faced with regulatory constraints are unlikely to minimize their production costs due to rising production costs caused by allocative inefficiency of inputs. The use of a distance function would results in underestimation of $CO_2$ abatement costs, because it fails to capture the allocative distortion costs. Recognizing the disadvantage of the previous approach, first, this paper tests for allocative efficiency of input for the Korean steel industry over the period 1990-2010, then derives the marginal $CO_2$ abatement costs by applying a cost function approach. The hypothesis of allocative efficiency in inputs is rejected and the steel industry pays an annual average cost of 92,000 won in removing an additional ton of $CO_2$ over the sample period.

A strategic Approach for Establishing Korea's Cyber Terrorism Policy : Focusing on the UK's cyber terrorism policy (국내 사이버테러 정책수립을 위한 전략적 접근방안 : 영국의 사이버테러 정책을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Byung-Hwa
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.51
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    • pp.173-195
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    • 2017
  • Recently, in South Korea, security management has been strengthened, but there have been an increasing number of cases where the main infrastructure of the country is hacked in the cyber space. South Korea is equipped with sophisticated information and communication technologies, such as Internet, but is threatened by cyber terrorism of North Korea and terrorist organizations. Nevertheless, there is a limit to how to develop a policy and strategic plan for the country, which is related to domestic terrorism and lacks legal and regulatory facilities, and therefore, in this study, proposed suggestions for building adaptive and efficient policy formulation. Based on the theoretical analysis framework of the Strategic Plan for achieving the objectives of the research, we compared the UK 's security strategy with the national security policy of the domestic government. As a result, several problems were derived: First, the domestic security strategy did not take into account the external environment. Secondly, lack of coordination with domestic cyber security goals setting and strategy is causing ambiguity and confusion. Third, the detailed plan of implementation of national security in each province is designed to ensure that there is a possibility that a mixed side effect between ministries and agencies will arise. Fourth, it was found that there was a limit to prepare the evaluation standards for the evaluation and return of domestic security policies in the country. Therefore, in order to establish a policy for the response of domestic cyber terrorism, we set up a vision from long-term perspectives and concrete targets based on the strategic approach of the security policy, It is necessary to present an assignment and formulate an efficient execution plan. It is necessary to maintain and improve the domestic safeguards in order to be able to complement the problems through evaluation and feedback.

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Development of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on the Health Care Sector (기후변화 건강 취약성 평가지표 개발)

  • Shin, Hosung;Lee, Suehyung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.69-93
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    • 2014
  • The aim of this research was to develop a climate change vulnerability index at the district level (Si, Gun, Gu) with respect to the health care sector in Korea. The climate change vulnerability index was esimated based on the four major causes of climate-related illnesses : vector, flood, heat waves, and air pollution/allergies. The vulnerability assessment framework consists of six layers, all of which are based on the IPCC vulnerability concepts (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) and the pathway of direct and indirect impacts of climate change modulators on health. We collected proxy variables based on the conceptual framework of climate change vulnerability. Data were standardized using the min-max normalization method. We applied the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) weight and aggregated the variables using the non-compensatory multi-criteria approach. To verify the index, sensitivity analysis was conducted by using another aggregation method (geometric transformation method, which was applied to the index of multiple deprivation in the UK) and weight, calculated by the Budget Allocation method. The results showed that it would be possible to identify the vulnerable areas by applying the developed climate change vulnerability assessment index. The climate change vulnerability index could then be used as a valuable tool in setting climate change adaptation policies in the health care sector.

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A Study on the Standard Ship's Length of Domestic Trade Port (국내 무역항의 표준 선박길이에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yun-Sok;Ahn, Young-Joong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.164-170
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    • 2013
  • With the introduction of increasingly large-sized ships, the conditions of main domestic port facilities remain the same as in the past. So, there is high probability that marine traffic congestion can occur at the certain ship's routes. The standard ship's length used to assess the marine traffic congestion of domestic trade port is 70 meters. It has been in use for the last 30 years, so, its usefulness is highly recommended for review. This study deeply analyzes the tendency of ship's dimensional changes according to recent enlargement of ship's size by utilizing the particulars of 60,000 ships saved in domestic Port-MIS database and suggests the standard ship's length by figuring out the correlation between length of ship and gross tonnage. In addition, the basis of statistical data on the ship's tonnage in domestic trade over the last five years suggests the standard ship's length by deriving the reference point of cumulative incidences that occupy more than over 50 %, except for small vessels. It is necessary to consider the characteristic of each domestic trade port before the actual application of suggested standard ship's length.

Generation Characteristics and Prediction of Acid Rock Drainage(ARD) of Cut Slopes (건설현장 절취사면의 산성암반배수 발생특성과 잠재적 산발생능력 평가)

  • Lee, Gyoo-Ho;Kim, Jae-Gon;Lee, Jin-Soo;Chon, Chul-Min;Park, Sam-Gyu;Kim, Tack-Hyun;Ko, Kyung-Seok;Kim, Tong-Kwon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2005
  • Acid Rock Drainage(ARD) is the product formed by the atmospheric(i.e. by water, oxygen and carbon dioxide) oxidation of the relatively common iron-sulphur mineral pyrite($FeS_2$). ARD causes the acidification and heavy metal contamination of water and soil and the reduction of slope stability. In this paper the generation characteristics and the prediction of ARD of various cut slopes were studied. An attempt to classify the rocks into several groups according to their acid generation potentials was made. Acid Base Accounting(ABA) tests, commonly used as a screening tool in ARD predictions, were performed. Fourteen rock samples were classified into PAF(potentially acid forming) group and four rock samples into NAF(non-acid forming) group. The chemical analysis of water samples strongly suggested that ARD with high content of heavy metals and low pH could pollute the ground water and/or stream water.

A Study on Decision Making of Cadastral Surveying Results using Drone Photogrammetry (드론항공사진측량을 활용한 지적측량 성과결정에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Seong-Ha;Kim, Ho-Jong;Lee, Don-Sun
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.79-95
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    • 2021
  • This study evaluates the applicability of determining cadastral surveying results using drone photogrammetry during the phase of determining cadastral surveying results, which is the most important stage of cadastral surveying, but known to be hardly objective and highly probable in causing a subjective misjudgment or mistake made by a surveyor. In the experiment to analyze the accuracy of boundary point extraction from drone photogrammetry results, by comparing the coordinate area of 22 parcels extracted from 2D and 3D images with the coordinate area measured from ground survey, the difference could be quantified as RMSE of 1.44m2 for 2D and 0.32m2 for 3D images. In addition, experiments to evaluate the determination of cadastral surveying result based on drone photogrammetry survey showed the RMSE measure of 0.346m towards N direction and 0.296m towards Y direction in comparison to the existing surveying results through data investigation. Based on these experiments, it is judged that cadastral surveying result based on drone photogrammetry can be determined without needing to conduct a location survey with an accuracy of approximately 0.3m in the graphical area, which also leads to possibility of reducing individual errors if drones images are used along with ground survey by objectifying the process of cadastral surveying results.

Microbial Risk Assessment in Treated Wastewater Irrigation on Paddy Rice Plot (하수처리수를 관개한 후 벼재배 시험구에 대한 미생물 위해성 평가)

  • Jung, Kwang-Wook;An, Youn-Joo;Jang, Jae-Ho;Jeon, Ji-Hong;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.38 no.2 s.112
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2005
  • The protection of public health In wastewater reclamation and reuse is one of the most important issues. Monitoring data of Escherichia coli were collected from paddy rice plots in 2003 and 2004 experiments. Five treatments were used and each one was triplicated to evaluate the changes of E. coli: surface water, biofilter effluent (secondary level), UV-disinfected water and pond treatment. Microbial risk was quantified to assess human health risk by exposure to E. coli in paddy rice plots, which were irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. Beta-Poisson model was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogen ingestion that may occur to farmer and neighbor children. Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. In the following analysis, two scenarios were related to the reduction of risk against direct ingestion and exposure times. Scenarios A and B were assumed that the risk was 1,000 and 10,000 times lower than direct ingestion.'Golfers were assumed to be 0.001 L of reclaimed water by contact with balls and their cloths. Opportunity of contact in paddy rice field with pathogens was more frequent than handing golf balls, because of agricultural activity was practiced in ponded water in paddy rice culture. As a result of microbial risk assessment using total data of experimental period, risk value of E. coli in 2003 and 2004 experiment ranged from $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-8}$ and $10^{-4}$ to $10^{-8}$, respectively. The risk values in biofilter effluent irrigation was the highest, which is $10^{-4}$ in 2003 and $10^{-5}$ in 2004 experiments with scenario A. Ranges of $10^{-6}$ to $10^{-8}$ were considered at reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure and the risk value above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be attributable to the risk of infection. Irrigation with UV-disinfected water in the paddy field during the agricultural Period showed significantly lower microbial risk than others, and their levels of risk value were within the range of actual paddy rice field with surface water.