• Title/Summary/Keyword: 개별학습

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Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

The Study of Metrics development for Entrepreneurial Program Effectiveness (청소년 창업교육프로그램 효과성 측정지표 개발 연구)

  • Byun, Youngjo;Kim, Myung Seuk;Yang, Young Seok
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2014
  • A goal of Bizcool entrepreneurship education targeting on the youth falls on letting understand the process of starts-up, enhance entrepreneurship will and their business creativities rather than training trivial starts-up skills such as writing business plan for successful starts-up. The effects of education enable Bizcoo students to recognize rightly the concept of starts-up training and lead to spread out demand for entrepreneurship education. The feedback check-up for how entrepreneurship education affects students getting through of it is necessary and possible to bring its' improvement alternatives. Despite of such highlight, not many measuring tools and indexes of evaluating an effectiveness of entrepreneurship education are developed and studied up until. This research suggests for the optimal indexes for them. In specific, this research 49 the first question sets of evaluating an effectiveness of entrepreneurship education classified 3 large categories and 11 following sub categories each of them such as entrepreneurship orientation, creativity, entrepreneurship preparing activities etc,. representing embedding education effects though entrepreneurship education. This research carry out the empirical survey research utilizing driven question sets against 5 different Bizcools sampling 287 students. The survey research delivers the final 3 large categories and 8 following sub categories(Innovativeness, risk-taking, problem-solving potent, cooperative decision-making potent, efficient behavior capacity, data collecting potent, career search, starts-up search and preparation), and 38 measuring indexes by search and confirming factor analysis. This research never drop the confidence test over each indexes and obtain the proper figures. Last but not least, this research confirm the gap between starts-up club members and non members as to an effectiveness of entrepreneurship education and 9 different indexes.

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A meta-analysis of the effect for Creativity, Creative Problem Solving Abilities in STEAM (융합인재교육(STEAM)의 창의성과 문제해결력 효과에 관한 메타분석 -연구방법 및 연구자를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Seokjin;Kim, Namsook;Lee, Yoonjin;Lee, Seungjin
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2017
  • The analysis was carried out with meta-analysis on master's and doctoral dissertations, and academic journals that analyzed the effects of STEAM education between 2012 and 2015. From the total number of 75 dissertations and articles analyzed, 183 different effect sizes were calculated. The analysis was done to find out the kinds of differences that would be created according to the effect size of creativity, problem-solving ability, and researcher, target area, student division research design type, and level of schools. The total effect size of creativity scored 0.776, and demonstrated satisfaction in symmetry of funnel plot, with no publication biases. The fail-safe N scored 780, and since the number is smaller than 8,945, the results of this research has credibility. Furthermore, problem-solving ability shows intermediate level of effect size with a score of 0.584. It also showed satisfaction in symmetry with funnel plot, with no publication bias. With the different research methods of the sub-factors of creativity, fluency scored the highest with 0.929, flexibility with 0.881, originality with 0.838, sophistication with 0.653, abstractness with title 0.705, and resistance to termination, 0.527. This study finds its significance in the demonstration of average effect size of STEAM education through meta-analysis. According to research results, the effects of inclusive education could be determined, yet the specific effect cause or learning principles were difficult to find. It was found that the effects of STEAM education do not rise or fall depending on school age, and demonstrated differences in creativity according to the research methods or the researchers.

Bankruptcy prediction using an improved bagging ensemble (개선된 배깅 앙상블을 활용한 기업부도예측)

  • Min, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.121-139
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    • 2014
  • Predicting corporate failure has been an important topic in accounting and finance. The costs associated with bankruptcy are high, so the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction is greatly important for financial institutions. Lots of researchers have dealt with the topic associated with bankruptcy prediction in the past three decades. The current research attempts to use ensemble models for improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification is to combine individually trained classifiers in order to gain more accurate prediction than individual models. Ensemble techniques are shown to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Bagging is the most commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers. In bagging, the different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the original training dataset. Base classifiers are trained on the different bootstrap samples. Instance selection is to select critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and harmful instances from the original set. Instance selection and bagging are quite well known in data mining. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of instance selection and bagging. This study proposes an improved bagging ensemble based on instance selection using genetic algorithms (GA) for improving the performance of SVM. GA is an efficient optimization procedure based on the theory of natural selection and evolution. GA uses the idea of survival of the fittest by progressively accepting better solutions to the problems. GA searches by maintaining a population of solutions from which better solutions are created rather than making incremental changes to a single solution to the problem. The initial solution population is generated randomly and evolves into the next generation by genetic operators such as selection, crossover and mutation. The solutions coded by strings are evaluated by the fitness function. The proposed model consists of two phases: GA based Instance Selection and Instance based Bagging. In the first phase, GA is used to select optimal instance subset that is used as input data of bagging model. In this study, the chromosome is encoded as a form of binary string for the instance subset. In this phase, the population size was set to 100 while maximum number of generations was set to 150. We set the crossover rate and mutation rate to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. We used the prediction accuracy of model as the fitness function of GA. SVM model is trained on training data set using the selected instance subset. The prediction accuracy of SVM model over test data set is used as fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. In the second phase, we used the optimal instance subset selected in the first phase as input data of bagging model. We used SVM model as base classifier for bagging ensemble. The majority voting scheme was used as a combining method in this study. This study applies the proposed model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies. The research data used in this study contains 1832 externally non-audited firms which filed for bankruptcy (916 cases) and non-bankruptcy (916 cases). Financial ratios categorized as stability, profitability, growth, activity and cash flow were investigated through literature review and basic statistical methods and we selected 8 financial ratios as the final input variables. We separated the whole data into three subsets as training, test and validation data set. In this study, we compared the proposed model with several comparative models including the simple individual SVM model, the simple bagging model and the instance selection based SVM model. The McNemar tests were used to examine whether the proposed model significantly outperforms the other models. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models.

A Study on the Serialized Event Sharing System for Multiple Telecomputing User Environments (원격.다원 사용자 환경에서의 순차적 이벤트 공유기에 관한 연구)

  • 유영진;오용선
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.344-350
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we propose a novel sharing method ordering the events occurring between users collaborated with the common telecomputing environment. We realize the sharing method with multimedia data to improve the coworking effect using teleprocessing network. This sharing method advances the efficiency of communicating projects such as remote education, tele-conference, and co-authoring of multimedia contents by offering conveniences of presentation, group authoring, common management, and transient event productions of the users. As for the conventional sharing white board system, all the multimedia contents segments should be authored by the exclusive program, and we cannot use any existing contents or program. Moreover we suffer from the problem that ordering error occurs in the teleprocessing operation because we do not have any line-up technology for the input ordering of commands. Therefore we develop a method of retrieving input and output events from the windows system and the message hooking technology which transmits between programs in the operating system In addition, we realize the allocation technology of the processing results for all sharing users of the distributed computing environment without any error. Our sharing technology should contribute to improve the face-to-face coworking efficiency for multimedia contents authoring, common blackboard system in the area of remote educations, and presentation display in visual conference.

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The Effect of Supply Chain Dynamic Capabilities, Open Innovation and Supply Uncertainty on Supply Chain Performance (공급사슬 동적역량, 개방형 혁신, 공급 불확실성이 공급사슬 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sang-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.481-491
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    • 2018
  • As the global business environment is dynamic, uncertain, and complex, supply chain management determines the performance of the supply chain in terms of the utilization of resources and capabilities of companies involved in the supply chain. Companies pursuing open innovation gain greater access to the external environment and accumulate knowledge flows and learning experiences, and may generate better business performance from dynamic capabilities. This study analyzed the effects of supply chain dynamic capabilities, open innovation, and supply uncertainty on supply chain performance. Through questionnaires on 178 companies listed on KOSDAQ, empirical results are as follows: First, integration and reactivity capabilities among supply chain dynamic capabilities have a positive effect on supply chain performance. Second, the moderating effect of open innovation showed a negative correlation in the case of information exchange, and a positive correlation in the cases of integration, cooperation and reactivity. Third, two of the 3-way interaction terms, "information exchange*open innovation*supply uncertainty" and "integration*open innovation*supply uncertainty" were statistically significant. The implications of this study are as follows: First, as the supply chain needs to achieve optimization of the whole process between supply chain components rather than individual companies, dynamic capabilities play an important role in improving performance. Second, for KOSDAQ companies featuring limited capital resources, open innovation that integrates external knowledge is valuable. In order to increase synergistic effects, it is necessary to develop dynamic capabilities accordingly. Third, since resources are constrained, managers must determine the type or level of capabilities and open innovation in accordance with supply uncertainty. Since this study has limitations in analyzing survey data, it is necessary to collect secondary data or longitudinal data. It is also necessary to further analyze the internal and external factors that have a significant impact on supply chain performance.

The Process of the Quickening and Development of Science-Technology- Society Education in the United Kingdom (I) - Between the Beginning of the 19th Century and the Middle of the 20th Century - (영국에서의 과학-기술-사회 교육의 태동과 발전 과정( I )-19세기 초반에서 20세기 중반까지를 중심으로-)

  • Song, Jin-Woong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.409-427
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    • 1999
  • The aim of this study was to illustrate how STS-related ideas in science education have been developed historically in the context of British education, particularly focused on the period of the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. It has been hardly considered that the basic ideas of the STS education, one of the two paradigms of current science education together with constructivism, can be traced back to the beginning of the school science education itself. far beyond some of the programs which are largely regarded as the first-developed STS programs in Britain, such as Science in Society and SISCON. The movement of Mechanics' Institute during the first half of the 19th century would be the first systematic attempt to bridge the gap between the knowledge of pure science and its practical applications, although the main target was working-class adults rather than school pupils. At the end of the first half of the 19th century, this application-focused approach of science teaching was echoed in the elementary schools by Richard Dawes, one of the early experimenters of school science. The second half of the century was in large the period of the establishment of science as one of the core elements of school curriculum, mainly by emphasizing the aspect of pure science as a means for mental training. During this period, the elements of STS education-related appeared in the subject called 'Object Lesson' in elementary schools which was practically a separate subject from those of science. After the turn of the century, triggered by the experience of World War I, the growing appreciation of the impacts of science upon society and of the necessity of the teaching of science for wider audience gave a great impact towards two new main movements, i.e. for General Science and Citizen Science. The later illustrates a typical example of the STS movement in school science during the first half of the 20th century, particularly driven by the socialistic ideas towards the relation between science and society.

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A Comparative Study on the Effect of Smoking Cessation Education between CAI(Computer Assisted Instruction) and Lecture - Focused on Vocational High School Male Students - (CAI 개별 학습 프로그램을 적용한 금연 교육과 강의식 금연 교육의 효과 비교 - 실업계 남자 고등학생을 대상으로 -)

  • Lee Eun Suk;Kim Chung Nam
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.74-94
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the effect of education between CAI(Computer Assisted Instruction) and lectures for smoking cessation among male students who attended vocational high schools. Conducted from February 24th to April 26th, 2003, the study design was quasi-experimental with nonequivalent control group pretest-posttest design. The study subjects were 60 male students in K vocational high school in Daegu city, who were present smokers and had more than 7.0 ppm concentration level of carbon monoxide. Thirty students were randomly chosen as the experimental group which applied CAI education method for smoking cessation. The other 30 students served as the control group which received lecture education method of 40 minutes on four consecutive days. CAI education for smoking cessation was composed of ready-made individual learning contents, counseling by using cyber-communication, writing a letter to stop smoking, and writing a written agreement for smoking cessation. Lecture education for smoking cessation was composed of a ready-prepared lecture for the group, writing a letter to stop smoking, and writing a written agreement for smoking cessation. To measure smoking related knowledge, Jeong Ree Roh(1996)'s smoking related knowledge scale$(Cronbach's\;{\alpha}=0.84)$ was modified and used by the researcher. To measure smoking related attitude, Jeong Ree Roh(1996)'s smoking related attitude scale$(Cronbach's\;{\alpha}=0.91)$ was modified and used by the researcher. Smoking related knowledge scale's Cronbach's $\alpha$ was 0.83 in the pilot study and 0.93 in this study. Smoking related attitude scale's Cronbach's a was 0.80 in the pilot study and 0.98 in this study. To determine the smoking amount, the number of cigarettes smoked per day was checked. The concentration level of CO in the exhaled breath was measured (Micro CO Cat. No. MCO2, UK). Data was analyzed by $x^2-test$, t-test, repeated measures ANOVA. simple main effects, and time contrast test with SPSS/Win 11.0 program. The results of this study were as follows: 1. The first hypothesis. that 'Smoking-related knowledge score in the experimental group by using CAI education for smoking cessation will be higher than that in the control group by using lecture education for smoking cessation', was not supported. 2. The second hypothesis, that 'Smoking-related attitude in the experimental group by using CAI education for smoking cessation will be higher than that in the control group by using lecture education for smoking cessation'. was supported(F=6490.79. p=0.000). 3. The third hypothesis. that 'Smoking amount in the experimental group by using CAI education for smoking cessation will be less than that in the control group by using lecture education for smoking cessation'. was supported. 1) The third-1st sub-hypothesis. that 'The number of cigarettes smoked per day in the experimental group by using CAI education for smoking cessation will be less than that in the control group by using lecture education for smoking cessation'. was supported(F=134.19. p=0.000). 2) The third-2nd sub-hypothesis. that 'The concentration level of CO by ppm per one exhaled breath in the experimental group by using CAI education for smoking cessation will be lower than that in the control group by using lecture education for smoking cessation"' was supported(F=268.55. p=0.000). From the above results. CAI education can be an effective intervention to improve smoking-related knowledge and attitude. and to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day and the concentration level of CO by ppm per one exhaled breath. Lecture education can be effective to improve smoking-related knowledge. In the future, when CAI education and lecture education for smoking cessation are applied on the school nursing field. the students can gain a comprehensive understanding of smoking cessation, changes in smoking-related knowledge. smoking-related attitude and reducing smoking amount. Furthermore, CAI education for smoking cessation could be developed as an individual self initiative program and could give a guideline to apply CAI education for smoking cessation in other field.

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The Effect of Teacher Support Program for the Integration of Handicapped Children on Teaching Efficacy of Daycare Center Teachers (장애 유아 통합보육을 위한 교사 지원이 어린이집 교사의 교사 효능감에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Na Ri
    • Korean Journal of Child Education & Care
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.247-265
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of teacher support program for integration of handicapped children on teaching efficacy of daycare center teachers. Methods: In the study, 12 day care teachers in 4 day care centers in Seoul and Gyeonggi area were selected as experimental groups and 12 teachers in 5 day care centers were selected as control group. Teacher education is carried out through group education, such as understanding of developmental area, curriculum modification, activity-based embedded intervention, cooperative learning, direct teaching, disability understanding education, behavior support, family support. Individual teacher education provided counseling on the reality of child care for children with disabilities that reflects the needs of teachers for integrated child care for handicapped children. Teacher's Efficacy in Inclusive Practices (TEIP) was used as a pre post test to measure teacher's efficacy change. In order to analyze the results of the study, two independent sample t tests were conducted on the difference between pre-post test of teacher efficacy between the two groups. Results: As a result, There was a significant difference in the pre-post change of teacher efficacy between the two groups. Conclusion/Implications: The results of this study are as follows, teacher support program provided immediate feedback in integrated child daycare center for the handicapped children, child care teachers improved their integrated handicapped children care expertise, provided responsive teacher support program to the actual needs of the site, teacher support program reflected various variables related to integration, and emphasized the cooperative relationship between researcher and child daycare center teacher. The results of this study can be used as actual data of field where lack of support for the integration of handicapped children is lacking.

The Design Improvement Plan of Seoul Forest Visitor Centers for Little Children (서울시 유아숲체험장의 공간 개선 방안)

  • Kim, Minjung;Jeong, Wookju
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.49-63
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    • 2021
  • The Forest Visitor Centers for Little Children who means preschoolers is an educational facility that achieves holistic growth by experiencing forests, and it should not be completed by installing specific facilities in the forest environment, but should be a space where preschoolers can play freely in the forest environment themselves. This study comprehensively evaluated the current status of Seoul Forest Visitor Centers for Little Children and suggested space improvement measures to enhance the effectiveness of forest experience. Through the theoretical review, seven spatial elements that enhance the effect of forest experience and six areas composing outdoor play areas were derived to prepare an analysis table for current status evaluation, and field survey studies were conducted on 24 centers in Seoul. Through expert interviews, the physical status was examined from the perspective of childhood education and the experiences of the users were summarized. As a result of the study, the Seoul Forest Visitor Center for Little Children is classified into six types according to the location characteristics and spatial structure, and has the characteristics of each type. The effectiveness of forest experience can be enhanced by identifying and revealing the environmental strengths of individual centers. In the case of outdoor experience learning zones, the proportion of exercise play areas was very large. By evenly organizing the forest experience space for each area, it will be possible to provide more diverse experiences to preschoolers. However, the status of uniform facility-oriented cannot be viewed as a fragmentary factor that lowers the effect of forest experience. The key to increasing the effect of forest experience by inducing creative activities is the spatial composition that considers the surrounding natural environment. Facilities should be a medium to help preschoolers' interest move into the forest. This study prepared data to understand the average physical status of the Seoul Forest Visitor Center for Little Children and suggested space improvement measures to increase the effectiveness of forest experience. This can be used as basic data for research to improve the quality level of the Seoul Forest Visitor Center for Little Children about 10 years after the project was implemented.