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Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

The Possibility of Making a Play out of Jindo Ssitgimgut through the Pantomime Empty Hands (무언극 <빈손>을 통해 본 진도씻김굿의 연극화 가능성)

  • Kim, Mi-kyung
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.18
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    • pp.171-199
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    • 2009
  • This paper started with my effort to find connections between Empty Hands, which was put on the stage at the Mime House in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province, and Jindo Ssitgimgut. The mimist Yu Jin-gyu(58) adopted so many elements from Jindo Ssitgimgut for his performance that I felt that it was the pantomime version of Jindo Ssitgimgut. Of course, the pantomime took the form of gut based on shamanism in terms of story. Watching the pantomime, I once again saw the possibility of developing Korea's cultural archetypes into cultural contents. Helen Lannaghan, the art director of London International Mime Festival of 2005, saw his performance at the conference of Chuncheon International Mime Festival and invited it to the London International Mime Festival praising that it's full of Korean elements, minimalist, and modern at the same time. In fact, Empty Hands, which boasts great harmony among the Korean objet, Oriental thoughts, Samulnori, and Western contemporary mime, was invited to many foreign festivals including the Mimos International Mime Festival in 2000, Polish International Mime Festival in 2001, Mongol's International Mime Festival in 2002, and Belgium's International Mime Festival in 2003. In addition, it's recognized for its artistic values and had a chance to shine in another international setting at the London International Mime Festival whose reputations have been worldwide. All those achievements are the result of Yu's constant effort to reflect Korean elements through his movements. What I saw in his pantomime was the possibility that plays based on Korea's cultural archetypes such as Jindo Ssitgimgut could play an important role as a global content of performance culture. Pursuing the possibility further, I analyzed the factors that brought the worldwide recognition to Empty Hands and searched for the ways to create solid storytelling with Jindo Ssitgimgut and make a huge hit on the international stage. It should be noted once more that the pantomime Empty Hands launched Korea's unique performance culture to the world stage by making great use of the traditional Korean cultural contents.

The crossing the border into Liadong by Mangong and Jeokhyu, the high priests in the early Joseon Dynasty, and the rebuilding of the Chinese, Buddhist temples (조선초 고승 만공(滿空)과 적휴(適休)의 요동(遼東) 월경(越境)과 중국사찰 중창)

  • Hwang, In-Gyu
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.70
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    • pp.407-434
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    • 2018
  • This study took a look at the crossing the border into Liadong in the early Joseon Dynasty, which has nearly not been paid attention to in the history of the Buddhism in Korea, and the Chinese, Buddhist whereabouts of Monk Mangong and Jeokhyu, the periodical, Buddhist priests. Regarding the large-scale, Buddhist oppression measures of King Taejong in the beginning of the Joseon Dynasty and King Sejong, the Buddhist circle did not not respond helplessly, but, rather, it had made the resistance on its own way. Especially, the Naonghyegeum of Jogyeseonjong and the disciple affiliates of Taegobowu had stood out. The disciples of Bowu had mainly hit the Sinmungo or had advocated the self-purification of Buddhism. And the disciple affiliates of Naong either had reorganized the Buddhist circle with Muhak in the center or had opposed the suppression. And, by receiving the help of the Emperor of the Ming Dynasty, they had intended to protect the Buddhist circle, or they, also, crossed the border into Liadong. Although, while attempting the crossing the border into another territory, they were arrested like the sea ships, like Mangong of King Taejong and Jeokhyu of King Sejong, they succeeded in crossing the border into another territory, and they left the clear whereabouts in the Chinese, Buddhist circle. Mangong was one Buddhist monk among the 11 Buddhist monks who crossed the border into Liadong during the King Taejong. After crossing the border, Mangong had moved again from Beijing on a sea route and had settled for after going into a mountain in the Zen sect at the Tienchieh temple in Nanjing. Meanwhile, he had been close to the Joseon Dynasty, and he relocated to Mount Taishan, where there had been the history, thereby rebuilding the Chikurin Temple and the Buchauchan temple and widely publicizing the Buddhism. During the time of King Sejong, by crossing the border into Liadong together with a total of 10 Monks, including the Buddhist monks Shinnae, Shinhyu, Shindam, Hyeseon, Hongjeok, Haebi, Shinyeon, Honghye, Shinwun, etc., under the protection by the Emperor of the Ming Dynasty in Beijing, Jeokhyu went through Shanhaiguan and had moved to the Tienchieh Temple in Nanjing. Although their whereabouts can not be known, on the Guji Mountain in Beijing, Jeokhyu founded the Banyaseonsa Temple nearby the Ryeongamseonsa Temple, where the clergy and the laity of the Goryeo Dynasty had resided and, especially, where Naong and the disciples of Muhak etc. had stayed. As such, the Buddhist monks in the beginning of the Joseon Dynasty had either resisted the suppression by the country or crossed the border into another territory. Mangong and Jeokhyu of the times of King Taejong and King Sejong had led the Chinese, Buddhism circle, had rebuilt the Buddhist temples, and had contributed to the development of the Chinese Buddhism.

Experimental Transplantation for the Restoration of Seagrass, Zostera marina L. Bed Around Sinyangseopji Beach in Bangdu Bay, Jeju Island (제주 신양섭지해수욕장 주변 방두만 거머리말 군락 복원을 위한 실험적 이식)

  • LEE, HYUNG WOO;KANG, JEONG CHAN;PARK, JUNG-IM;KIM, MYUNG SOOK
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.343-355
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    • 2021
  • Eelgrass, Zostera marina L., was widely distributed around Sinyangseopji Beach in Bangdu Bay, on the eastern coast of Jeju Island, until breakwater construction in the late 1990s resulted in its complete loss. Six experimental sites were identified for restoration of the Z. marina bed in Bangdu Bay. Using the staple method, 500 Z. marina shoots were transplanted at each site in January 2019 and 2020. The transplants, along with environmental parameters, were monitored for 10 months following transplantation. There were significant differences in underwater irradiance, water temperature, and salinity among the sites, but all were suitable for Z. marina growth. The Ulva species, an opportunistic alga, appeared in spring and accumulated during summer at all sites; however, there was no significant effect of Ulva species on the survival and growth of the eelgrass transplants. Most of the transplanted Z. marina survived, and after 3 months, the density increased by 112.5-300% due to vegetative propagation, with a rapid rate of increase observed during spring and early summer at all sites. For 1-2 months after transplanting, the Z. marina shoots showed signs of transplant shock, after which the shoot density increased at all sites, confirming that all transplants adapted well to the new environment. However, in both 2019 and 2020, during late summer to early fall, the sites experienced heavy damage from typoons (twice in 2019 and three times in 2020) that hit Bangdu Bay. The transplants at two sites located in the center of Bangdu Bay were completely destroyed, but those at three sites located to the west of the bay showed a 192-312% increase in density. Thus, we confirmed that the Bangdu Bay Z. marina bed can be restored, with the highest probability of success for Z. marina restoration on the western side of Bangdu Bay, which is protected from typhoons.

The Korean Girl Group Kara's Differentiation Strategy Which Overcome the Trilemma and Led to the Great Reversal Success (삼중고 탈피 후 대역전의 성공을 이끈 걸 그룹'카라'의 차별화 전략)

  • Kim, Jeong-Seob
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2021
  • The Korean girl group "Kara" has suffered the trilemma of its de facto failure to debut, the crisis of team breakup, and the CEO crisis of the agency. But the group has made an outstanding achievement in the history of Korean pop music after overcoming all odds. Their success strategy has never been disclosed by insiders involved in Kara's total music projects. This study has been carried out in the analysis of the strategy to provide academic implications and to honor the contribution of the late CEO Ho-yeon Lee and Kara's key member Ha-ra Gu. Therefore, between Nov. and Dec. 2020, we conducted in-depth interviews with managers, composers, stylists and Ha-ra Gu(Only in 2019, before her death) who took part in the project. The research model is set up by combining Porter's Competitive Advantage Strategy and the music value chain model into categories of "Product Innovation Differentiation (PD)" (producing, album production, performance activities) and "Marketing Differentiation (MD)" (market targeting, image specialization, promotion and communication). The analysis showed that the PD focused on complete rediscovered harmonization and revalued members' personality and sincerity with peppy songs and dainty dances as well as emission of "bright energy" which caused healing effects instead of mimicking other star singers recklessly. In terms of MD, they selected Japan's 10-20s as their main market, increasing intimacy with fans and media with the image of cute+pretty+classy+sexy. The result suggests that Poter's differentiation can function as a meaningful strategy frame in the fostering, hit, and revival of idol groups. In addition, it reaffirmed that spontaneous and passionate activities of early-stage or celebrity fan may serve as a valid catalyst for realizing differentiation, as Kara's caller of Japanese actor Gekidan Hitori caused a strong "priming effect" that drove Kara's unexpected wonderful success in Japan.

Application of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models to forecast long-term precipitation in the Geum River basin (다중회귀모형과 인공신경망모형을 이용한 금강권역 강수량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.723-736
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    • 2022
  • In this study, monthly precipitation forecasting models that can predict up to 12 months in advance were constructed for the Geum River basin, and two statistical techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were applied to the model construction. As predictor candidates, a total of 47 climate indices were used, including 39 global climate patterns provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 8 meteorological factors for the basin. Forecast models were constructed by using climate indices with high correlation by analyzing the teleconnection between the monthly precipitation and each climate index for the past 40 years based on the forecast month. In the goodness-of-fit test results for the average value of forecasts of each month for 1991 to 2021, the MLR models showed -3.3 to -0.1% for the percent bias (PBIAS), 0.45 to 0.50 for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and 0.69 to 0.70 for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), whereas, the ANN models showed PBIAS -5.0~+0.5%, NSE 0.35~0.47, and r 0.64~0.70. The mean values predicted by the MLR models were found to be closer to the observation than the ANN models. The probability of including observations within the forecast range for each month was 57.5 to 83.6% (average 72.9%) for the MLR models, and 71.5 to 88.7% (average 81.1%) for the ANN models, indicating that the ANN models showed better results. The tercile probability by month was 25.9 to 41.9% (average 34.6%) for the MLR models, and 30.3 to 39.1% (average 34.7%) for the ANN models. Both models showed long-term predictability of monthly precipitation with an average of 33.3% or more in tercile probability. In conclusion, the difference in predictability between the two models was found to be relatively small. However, when judging from the hit rate for the prediction range or the tercile probability, the monthly deviation for predictability was found to be relatively small for the ANN models.

A Study on the Sinpa of Along With the Gods and the Korean Sinpa -Focusing on the comparison between the Sinpa of Singwahamkke Jeoseung and the Sinpa of Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds (<신과함께>의 신파성과 한국적 신파 현상 -웹툰 <신과함께-저승편>과 영화 <신과함께-죄와 벌>에 나타난 신파성 비교를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jae-Yeon
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.77-114
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    • 2020
  • This article aims to examine the Sinpa of Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds. Along with the Gods: The Two Worlds was a box office hit with a 10 million attendance mark, but it was also criticized as a 'Korean Sinpa' at the time of its release. The original version of Along with the Gods is a Webtoon called Singwahamkke in Korean. The popularity of Singwahamkke and its adaptation, Along with the Gods was enormous, which prompted a very active research to be carried about the work. However there are only a few articles which analyze the Along with the Gods: The Two Worlds focusing on the Sinpa, even though the Sinpa of the Along with the Gods: The Two Worlds was a highly controversial issue when the movie was released. In this regard, this article tries to examine the Sinpa of the Along with the Gods: The Two Worlds closely, especially by comparing it with the original webtoon Singwahamkke Jeoseung. The body part of this article is composed of three major parts: chapters 2, 3, and 4. Chapter 2 contains an in depth explanation about the notion of Sinpa, the main conceptual research tool for this study. In chapter 3, the original webtoon Singwahamkke Jeoseung is examined closely. This chapter analyzes the 'Sinpajeok moment' in Singwahamkke Jeoseung and argues that despite the presence of Sinpa elements, the webtoon cannot be considered a 'Sinpajeok text'. On the other hand the main subject of chapter 4 is discovering what effect the adaptation from webtoon to movie had on this work, with a particular focus on the gender of Sinpa and Kim Ja-hong. Chapter 5, which corresponds to the conclusion, briefly evaluates the social significance of the controversy arisen in South Korea about the Sinpa in Along with the Gods: The Two Worlds. Sinpa is one of the most repeated code in the realm of Korean popular narrative. This is why the Sinpa of contemporary text is examined continuously even though there are already plenty of studies on the Sinpa. Everyone has called Along with the Gods: The Two Worlds Sinpa but no one has properly analyzed it. It is hoped that this article which closesly examined the Sinpa in Along with the Gods: The Two Worlds contribute to the field of Sinpa. It is also expected that this article can find appropriate contextual meaning of the series of Along with the Gods.

Extreme Job, How Will We Survive Since "Candlelight Protest"? -A Revival of Comic Mode and a Comedy Film in the Age of Self-Management (<극한직업>, '촛불혁명' 이후 어떻게 버티며 살아남을 것인가? -코믹 모드의 부활과 자기경영 시대의 코미디영화)

  • Chung, Young-Kwon
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.221-254
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    • 2020
  • This paper finds a solution in the social context which cannot be explained thoroughly by well-timed release date, revival of comedy films, and the attraction of Lee Byeong-heon's comedy etc. while it throws question of how the film, Extreme Job captivated 16 million audience. The incredible hits of Extreme Job cannot be explained by analyzing the text alone. After this essay investigates a function and a role of comedy as a public sphere, it examines people's desires and wishes in the comedy and other genres since 2008 when the conservative government has seized power. Since 2008 a series of dark tone's action thriller, social problem film, and disaster film have emerged, these genres showed absence of public security, crisis of democracy and criticism against rulling class. On the other hand, hit comedy films have showed escapism such as weepie, nostalgia, and fantasy at the same time, generally. Although Veteran (2015) is not full-blown comedy, after this film's big success, "comic mode" has gradually revived. A light tone's films which are truer to genre rules has started representing the wishes of people toward social reforms and changes. Meanwhile, "Candlelight Protest" served as a momentum to recover the democracy which has been in crisis, but it could not lead changes in economic and daily lives. Exreme Job can be read as a question how we will survive since "Candlight Protest." The lives of detectives as self-employed workers who has taken over a fried chicken restaurant for going undercover are appearances of ordinary persons who must survive in the edless conpetition. Furthermore, this film shows a dream of a "great success myth" which becomes well-known as a famous restaurant and a self-management such as brand-naming and an exapansion of franchise business. We can read ganster's chicken franchises as a huge distribution industry which disturbs market system by delivering drugs secretly. While applauses that we give to the police having identities of self-employed workers which sweeps the ganster are giving support to oridinary neighborhood like us, they are also wishes of people who long for the restoration of publicness of police in the market which is becoming increasingly privatized today. A significance of this essay is to examine Extreme Job in terms of the geography of film genres and the revival of comic mode sicne 2008 at the macro level, and is to read the film in the perspective of the problems of economic and daily lives which has been still unsolved since "Candlelight Protest" at the micro level.

A Study on the Influence of Filmmaking Factors and Promotions on the Intention of Watching Movies (영화제작요소와 프로모션이 영화 인지 및 관람의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hun;Kim, Hee-Goon
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2019
  • This study sought to identify the impact of scenarios, capital, manpower (directors, actors), media promotion, oral communication, and recognition on the intention of watching movies, and to present marketing and policy implications to film producers for ways to revitalize their films. Therefore, the implications of this study are as follows: First, if you watch a movie with a friend or introduce a movie, you should set up a marketing strategy to promote the movie as a oral message to the people around you through double points and free admission at the 10th movie. It will also require the promotion of the scenario to be strengthened so that people around them can recognize it naturally. Second, film production companies will have to improve the quality of their movies by readjusting the distribution of capital in the event of capital investment. In addition, the movie should be encouraged by the oral publicity that the huge amount of capital has enhanced the quality of the movie, as well as pre-experience events to help the audience recognize it. Third, filmmakers will have to choose directors and actors who can digest novel and experimental material over the director's or actor's reputation. Fourth, the movie promotion company should set up strategies to cater to visitors through a contest for ideas for promoting visitors, which can arouse interest among visitors. Fifth, movie promoters will have to set a sufficient promotional period for visitors to be aware of the film in advance. Finally, movie writers will have to create scenarios with a variety of materials that meet the needs of visitors. Also, movie officials will have to develop or create a mechanism for those who watch the movie to practice oral and cognitive skills.

Success Factor in the K-Pop Music Industry: focusing on the mediated effect of Internet Memes (대중음악 흥행 요인에 대한 연구: 인터넷 밈(Internet Meme)의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • YuJeong Sim;Minsoo Shin
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.48-62
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    • 2023
  • As seen in the recent K-pop craze, the size and influence of the Korean music industry is growing even bigger. At least 6,000 songs are released a year in the Korean music market, but not many can be said to have been successful. Many studies and attempts are being made to identify the factors that make the hit music. Commercial factors such as media exposure and promotion as well as the quality of music play an important role in the commercial success of music. Recently, there have been many marketing campaigns using Internet memes in the pop music industry, and Internet memes are activities or trends that spread in various forms, such as images and videos, as cultural units that spread among people. Depending on the Internet environment and the characteristics of digital communication, contents are expanded and reproduced in the form of various memes, which causes a greater response to consumers. Previously, the phenomenon of Internet memes has occurred naturally, but artists who are aware of the marketing effects have recently used it as an element of marketing. In this paper, the mediated effect of Internet memes in relation to the success factors of popular music was analyzed, and a prediction model reflecting them was proposed. As a result of the analysis, the factors with the mediated effect of 'cover effect' and 'challenge effect' were the same. Among the internal success factors, there were mediated effects in "Singer Recognition," the genres of "POP, Dance, Ballad, Trot and Electronica," and among the external success factors, mediated effects in "Planning Company Capacity," "The Number of Music Broadcasting Programs," and "The Number of News Articles." Predictive models reflecting cover effects and challenge effects showed F1-score at 0.6889 and 0.7692, respectively. This study is meaningful in that it has collected and analyzed actual chart data and presented commercial directions that can be used in practice, and found that there are many success factors of popular music and the mediating effects of Internet memes.