• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.85-111
• /
• 2010

South Korea has experienced a rapid fertility decline and notable mortality improvement. As the drop in TFR was quicker and greater in terms of tempo and magnitude, it cast a new challenge of population projection - how to improve the forecasting accuracy in the country with a super-low fertility pattern. This study begin with the current status of the national population projection as implemented by Statistics Korea by comparing the 2009 interim projection with the 2006 official national population projection. Secondly, this study compare the population projection system including projection agencies, projection horizons, projection intervals, the number of projection scenarios, and the number of assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration among super-low fertility countries. Thirdly we illustrate a stochastic population projection for Korea by transforming the population rates into one parameter series. Finally we describe the future challenges of the national population projection, and propose the projection scenarios for the 2011 official population projection. To enhance the accuracy, we suggest that Statistics Korea should update population projections more frequently or distinguish them into short-term and long-term projections. Adding more than four projection scenarios including additional types of "low-variant"fertility could show a variety of future changes. We also expect Statistics Korea topay more attention to the determination of a base population that should include both national and non-national populations. Finally we hope that Statistics Korea will find a wise way to incorporate the ideas underlying the system of stochastic population projection as part of the official national population projection.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.185-201
• /
• 2020

Scenario population projection reflects the high probability of future realization and ease of statistical interpretation. Statistics Korea (2019) also presents the results of 30 combinations, including special scenarios, as official statistics. However, deterministic population projections provide limited information about future uncertainties with several limitations that are not probabilistic. The deterministic population projections are scenario-based estimates and show a perfect autocorrelation of three factors (birth, death, movement) of population variation over time. Therefore, international organizations UN, the Max Planck Population Research Institute (MPIDR) of Germany and the Vienna Population Research Institute (VID) of Austria have suggested stochastic based population estimates. In addition, some National Statistics Offices have also adopted this method to provide information along with the scenario results. This paper calculates the demographics of Korea based on a probabilistic or stochastic basis and then draws the pros and cons and show implications of the scenario (deterministic) population projections.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.56-68
• /
• 1989

The methodology in historical demography comprises the three core areas the family reconstitution method at the Institut National d' Ftudes Demographiques(I.N.E.D), the back projection at the Cambridge Group for the History of PopuJation and Social Struc-ture(HPSS). and the household-pattern analysis at the Cambridge Group and at the California Institute of Technology. The paper presents an outline of the family reconstitu-tion method and discusses the problems, both theoretical and methodological, arising from the problematic back projection vis-a-vis the usual inverse projection developed by Ronald D. Lee at Berkeley. Recent developments in the tield of the generalized inverse projection method designed 10 supplement the defects in the back projection and the inverse projection are presented. and for ease of explanation of the parish register data for the family reconstitution form (FRE). pre-modern Korean household register data are presented along with the parish register data of England and Wales that constitute the backbone of historical demography in pre-modern Europe. Possibilities of exploring the household pattern analysis method based on the Laslett-Hammel classification scheme for the mid-eighteenth-century Korean household register data are suggested.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.103 no.4
• /
• pp.670-678
• /
• 2014

This paper analyzes the characteristics of population change and makes the population projection in the mountainous area of Korea. Mountainous areas are defined as local towns (eup or myeon) with forest area more than 70 percent of land area, population density less than 111 people per square kilometer, and plowland area less than 21 percent of land area. The population in mountainous areas has decreased dramatically, while the ageing index has increased over the past two decades. To make the population projection, the cohort-change ratios method is applied. The results revealed that a multitude of young people aged 10 to 39 moved to cities to find education and job chance and some people aged 40 and over moved to mountainous areas as the trends of urban-to-rural migration. This continuing trend will culminate in 680 thousand people in population and 1,035 of ageing index in 2030, which will lead to the unequal land development and inefficient forest management. Thus, policy makers need to develop stimulus plans to revitalize and stabilize the economy of mountainous areas.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.53-88
• /
• 2006

The major aim of this paper is to develop a hypothetical set of age-specific fertility rates which are logically derived and reasonably accurate in the projection of future population. The first procedure is to select a generalized log-gamma distribution model, which includes Coale-McNeil nuptiality model, in order to estimate and project a set of age-specific fertility rates by birth cohort and birth order. The second is to apply the log-gamma model with an empirical adjustment to the actual data to estimate and project the future fertility rates for relatively young birth cohorts who did not complete their reproductive career. This study reconstructs or translates a set of cohort age-specific fertility rates into a set of period age-specific fertility rates which must be hypothesized in order to establish the broader framework of future population projection. For example, the fertility at age 20 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at age 20 for the cohort born in 1990, while the fertility at age 21 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at 21 for the cohort born in 1989. In turn, once a set of age-specific fertility rates for the cohorts who were born up to the year of 2010, it is possible for one to establish an hypothetical set of period age-specific fertility rates which will be needed to project the future population until the year of 2055. The difference in the hypothetical system of age-specific fertility rates between this study and the 2005 special population projection comes from the fact that the fertility estimation/projection model used in this study was skillfully exploited to reflect better actual trend of fertility decline caused by rise in marriage age and increasing proportion of those who remain single until their end of reproduction. In this regard, this paper argues that the set of age-specific fertility rates derived from this study is more logical and reasonably accurate than the set of those used for the 2005 special projection. In the population projection, however, the fundamental issue of the hypothetical setting of age-specific fertility rates in relation to the fertility estimation/projection model is about how skillfully one can handle the period effects. It is not easy for one to completely cope with the problem of period effects except for the a minor period adjustment based on recent actual data, along with the given framework of a cohort-based fertility estimation/projection model.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.35 no.2
• /
• pp.1-28
• /
• 2012

In this study, labor force projections are made in order to examine the process and magnitude of labor shortage caused by population ageing in Korea. Starting from theoretical review and analysis of population projection data, this study presents that serious transitions of labor market are expected to begin between 2020 and 2030. This study shows even in case of encouraging higher labor participation, labor shortage cannot be offset but only delay and alleviate effects of population ageing. Finally, this study points out some important implications of labor policy including sensitive social and political issues which should be considered.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.34 no.2
• /
• pp.113-133
• /
• 2011

The generation of babyboomers has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of the society in general. The Korean Babyboomers will soon leave from their workforce as they reach the retirement age. This, coupled with the low fertility rate, may cause a serious social problem in the society at large as well as the social welfare issues among the Korean elderly population. The Central Statistical Systems have estimated the future projection which plays critical role to establish fundamental basis for the social and economic policies of the nation. This study examined the effect of the babyboomers on the life expectancy by comparing forecasted life expectancies provided by the statistical office and the previous studies in the related areas. The study also suggested a future population projection based on fertility rates provided, along with the changes of the number of babyboomers as they become ageing. The study results with the comparison between the population projection by the statistical office are provided.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.99-107
• /
• 2019

This paper analyzed the characteristics of population change from 2000 to 2018 in 466 mountainous areas using resident registration data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, and projected the population in those areas through 2050 with the cohort change ratio method. The population had dramatically decreased from 2000 to 2009. With the slowing population decrease after 2010, the population has increased gradually since 2014. Especially the population of ages over 65 in 2018 had increased 34% compared to 2000, while the working age population had decreased 29%. This shows that population aging becomes serious problems in the mountainous area. Assuming the cohort change ratios from 2010 to 2015 and child-woman ratio in 2015 remain constant, it appeared that the projected population of the mountainous area dropped to 1.26 million in 2030 and 820,000 in 2050. It is expected to have a population with an inverted pyramid structure showing a gender imbalance with more females in 60's and 70's. Although it continues to show the recent population growth in mountainous area, population in mountainous area is expected to consistently decrease. Therefore, it is required to develop policies and strategies to promote an influx of people into mountainous area for maintaining functionality and sustainability of mountainous areas.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
• /
• v.46 no.2
• /
• pp.212-232
• /
• 2011

The main objective of this study is to establish a population projection method based on the biregional cohort-component method and to apply it to population projections for Busan. Some drawbacks of using the net migration cohort-component method in a regional or local level population projection are demonstrated. A biregional cohort-component method, a variant of the interregional cohort-component method, is established as an alternative where in-migration and out-migration are separately considered and then are combined to produce a projection for the migration component. Predicated on the established method, population projections for Busan are undertaken for the period of 2005~2030 under three different scenarios. Considerably different projection results are obtained between the net migration and biregional methods; among others, the trend of population decline is more severe in the former than in the latter. An investigation of the temporal trend of the projected population shows that the proposed method is highly reasonable. In conclusion, the proposed method based on the biregional cohort-component method seems not only to be theoretically more robust than the net migration cohort-component method but also to be very effective in the real world application.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.27-51
• /
• 2006

In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.