• Title/Summary/Keyword: winning probability

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Typology of Gambles: A Study of Gambling Behaviors and Problems (도박유형에 따른 도박행동과 도박문제의 차이)

  • Hoon Jang ;Sangyeon Yoon ;Taekyun Hur
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.331-354
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    • 2010
  • Previous psychological studies in gambling have mainly focused on the characteristics of gamblers. the purpose of the present study was to categorize gambles in Korea into subtypes based on winning probability and money and to examine variations of gambling behaviors and problems across the gamble subtypes. A survey on 1,304 gamble participants were conducted, of their gambling behaviors, personal and social problems, and CPGI. First, factor analyses on perceived winning probability and money revealed 6 subtypes of gambles: amusement type, lottery type, internet type, slot-machine type, racing type and casino type. Secondly, comparisons among gamble subtypes revealed the differences in gambling behaviors, gambling-related cognitions, emotional experiences during gambling, and personal/social problems related to gambling. The gambling behaviors in slot-machine type, racing type, and casino type were more negative than those in amusement type, and lottery type. Gamblers in internet type were found to have potential for latent problems of gambling. In discussion, the academic and practical values and implications of typology of gambles were further discussed.

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Differences in attributional bias and irrational gambling beliefs between gamblers and non-gamblers (귀인양식과 귀인편향, 비합리적 도박신념에서의 차이: 도박자와 비도박자의 비교)

  • Eun-A Park;Jonghan Yi
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.177-203
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    • 2015
  • The aims of this study were 1) to compare irrational gambling beliefs of gamblers and non-gamblers, 2) to investigate the role of cognitive error on winning probability thinking error, and 3) to examine the relationship between attributional bias and gambling behavior. A total of 248 subjects were recruited for this study. All subjects were classified into non-gamblers, social gamblers and pathological gamblers, and administered self-report questionnaires to measure irrational gambling beliefs, the probability inference error, the attriburional style, and the attributional bias. A pathological gambler group scored highest on irrational gambling beliefs, especially the overestimation of self-ability factor, and a social gambler group and a non-gambler group follow. All three groups scored higher on the magnification of gambling skills than the mean (4.0) of the scale. Pathological gamblers and social gamblers scored higher on the probability thinking error than non-gamblers. Pathological gamblers displayed higher external attribution, lower internal attribution in their daily life events and higher internal attribution in failure situation than social gamblers and non-gamblers. The results indicate that cognitive errors would be a factor that differentiates pathological gamblers from social gamblers and non-gamblers. In predicting gambling behaviors, overestimation of self-ability of irrational gambling beliefs, internal attribution in failure situation, external attribution in daily live event, and probability thinking error were identified as significant factors. It is concluded that a public education about common cognitive bias featured in gamblers might be important in prevention of pathological gambling behaviors.

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A Bilateral Delegate Model with Asymmetric Reimbursement in Environmental Conflicts (환경분쟁 대리인 모형의 '비대칭배상' 제도)

  • Park, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Myung-Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.3-26
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    • 2007
  • This paper analyzes the effects of asymmetric reimbursement in a delegate model where the lawyers for a citizen and a polluting firm work on a contingent-fee basis. The major findings from the paper are as follows: (i) the asymmetric reimbursement triggers environmental conflicts by increasing the citizens' expected surplus; (ii) it enhances the possibility of settlement by decreasing the magnitude of expected loss less expected surplus; (iii) settlements reduce the total litigation effort levels, thus curtailing the rent dissipation; (iv) The total litigation effort levels increase if the conflicts result in trials rather than settlements.

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Paradox in collective history-dependent Parrondo games (집단 과거 의존 파론도 게임의 역설)

  • Lee, Ji-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.631-641
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    • 2011
  • We consider a history-dependent Parrondo game in which the winning probability of the present trial depends on the results of the last two trials in the past. When a fraction of an infinite number of players are allowed to choose between two fair Parrondo games at each turn, we compare the blind strategy such as a random sequence of choices with the short-range optimization strategy. In this paper, we show that the random sequence of choices yields a steady increase of average profit. However, if we choose the game that gives the higher expected profit at each turn, surprisingly we are not supposed to get a long-run positive profit for some parameter values.

Choice versus Given: Influence of Choice on Effectiveness of Retailers' Sweepstakes Promotion

  • Meeja IM
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the influence of different methods of distributing sweepstakes (i.e., whether consumers choose to enter into the sweepstakes themselves or they are given the sweepstake ticket by default) on the effectiveness of the sweepstakes promotion (i.e., interest in the sweepstakes and intention to participate in the sweepstakes). Research design, data and methodology: The paper verifies this effect through three experimental studies: an online experiment using a sweepstakes promotion scenario at a department store, an online SNS sweepstakes promotion event, and a face-to-face card lottery game. Results: Participants belonging the group that chose sweepstakes tickets by themselves showed higher interest and intention to participate in the sweepstakes than those who were given the sweepstakes ticket by default. Furthermore, the group that chose the sweepstakes card thought it had a higher probability of winning than the group given the sweepstakes card. Conclusions: This paper shows a way to enhance the promotional effect of sweepstakes in the retail stores, without incurring additional costs, by approaching from sweepstakes design from the psychological perspective of the consumer. The study also sheds new light on the effect of sense of control manipulation using choice behavior in the promotional context.

Predicting Cooperative Relationships between Engineering Companies in World Bank's ODA Projects (세계은행 공적개발원조사업의 엔지니어링 기업 간 협력관계 예측모델 개발)

  • Yu, Youngsu;Koo, Bonsang;Lee, Kwanhoon;Han, Seungheon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2019
  • Korean construction engineering firms want to pave the way for expansion of overseas markets through the World Bank's Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects as a way to improve their overseas project performance. However, since the World Bank project competes with global companies for limited projects, building partnerships with suitable business partners is essential to gain an upper hand in bidding competition and meet the institutional conditions of the recipient country. In this regard, many network studies have been conducted in the past through Social Network Analysis (SNA), but few have been analyzed based on the process of changes in the network. So, This study collected winning data from the three Southeast Asian countries that ended after the World Bank's ODA project performed smoothly, and established a learning-based link prediction model that reflected the dynamic nature of the network. As a result, the 11 main variables acting on building a cooperative relationship between winning companies were derived and the effect of each variables on the probability value of cooperation between individual links was identified.

Implementation of Artificial Intelligence Computer Go Program Using a Convolutional Neural Network and Monte Carlo Tree Search (Convolutional Neural Network와 Monte Carlo Tree Search를 이용한 인공지능 바둑 프로그램의 구현)

  • Ki, Cheol-min;Cho, Tai-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2016.10a
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    • pp.405-408
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    • 2016
  • Games like Go, Chess, Janggi have helped to brain development of the people. These games are developed by computer program. And many algorithms have been developed to allow myself to play. The person winning chess program was developed in the 1990s. But game of go is too large number of cases. So it was considered impossible to win professional go player. However, with the use of MCTS(Monte Carlo Tree Search) and CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), the performance of the go algorithm is greatly improved. In this paper, using CNN and MCTS were proceeding development of go algorithm. Using the manual of go learning CNN look for the best position, MCTS calculates the win probability in the game to proceed with simulation. In addition, extract pattern information of go using existing manual of go, plans to improve speed and performance by using it. This method is showed a better performance than general go algorithm. Also if it is receiving sufficient computing power, it seems to be even more improved performance.

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A Study on the Timing of Starting Pitcher Replacement Using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 활용한 선발 투수 교체시기에 관한 연구)

  • Noh, Seongjin;Noh, Mijin;Han, Mumoungcho;Um, Sunhyun;Kim, Yangsok
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to implement a predictive model to support decision-making to replace a starting pitcher before a crisis situation in a baseball game. To this end, using the Major League Statcast data provided by Baseball Savant, we implement a predictive model that preemptively replaces starting pitchers before a crisis situation. To this end, first, the crisis situation that the starting pitcher faces in the game was derived through data exploration. Second, if the starting pitcher was replaced before the end of the inning, learning was carried out by composing a label with a replacement in the previous inning. As a result of comparing the trained models, the model based on the ensemble method showed the highest predictive performance with an F1-Score of 65%. The practical significance of this study is that the proposed model can contribute to increasing the team's winning probability by replacing the starting pitcher before a crisis situation, and the coach will be able to receive data-based strategic decision-making support during the game.