Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Predicting Cooperative Relationships between Engineering Companies in World Bank's ODA Projects

세계은행 공적개발원조사업의 엔지니어링 기업 간 협력관계 예측모델 개발

  • Yu, Youngsu (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Koo, Bonsang (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Lee, Kwanhoon (Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Han, Seungheon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • 유영수 (서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 구본상 ;
  • 이관훈 (고려대학교 컴퓨터학과) ;
  • 한승헌 (연세대학교 건설환경공학과(현, 한국건설기술연구원))
  • Received : 2019.09.17
  • Accepted : 2019.11.01
  • Published : 2019.11.30
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Abstract

Korean construction engineering firms want to pave the way for expansion of overseas markets through the World Bank's Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects as a way to improve their overseas project performance. However, since the World Bank project competes with global companies for limited projects, building partnerships with suitable business partners is essential to gain an upper hand in bidding competition and meet the institutional conditions of the recipient country. In this regard, many network studies have been conducted in the past through Social Network Analysis (SNA), but few have been analyzed based on the process of changes in the network. So, This study collected winning data from the three Southeast Asian countries that ended after the World Bank's ODA project performed smoothly, and established a learning-based link prediction model that reflected the dynamic nature of the network. As a result, the 11 main variables acting on building a cooperative relationship between winning companies were derived and the effect of each variables on the probability value of cooperation between individual links was identified.

국내 건설 엔지니어링 기업은 해외 실적 향상을 위한 방안으로 세계은행의 공적개발원조 사업을 통한 해외시장 확장의 발판을 마련하고자 한다. 하지만 세계은행 사업은 한정된 사업을 두고 다수의 글로벌 기업과 경쟁하기 때문에 입찰경쟁에서 우위를 선점하고, 수원국의 제도적 조건을 충족하기 위해 적합한 사업파트너와의 협력관계 구축이 필수적이다. 이러한 협력관계를 통한 입찰 전략 구축의 일환으로 사회 네트워크 분석을 이용한 다수의 과거 네트워크 분석 연구가 진행된 바 있으나, 네트워크의 변화과정을 기반으로 분석한 연구는 드물다. 이에 본 연구는 세계은행 ODA 사업이 원활히 시행된 후 종료된 아시아 3개국의 낙찰 데이터를 수집하고, 네트워크의 동적 변화를 반영한 학습기반 링크예측 모델을 구축하였다. 그 결과 낙찰기업들 간 협력관계 구축에 작용하는 11가지 주요 요인을 도출하고, 각 변수가 개별 링크의 협력 여부 확률 값에 미치는 영향을 확인하였다.

Keywords

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