• Title/Summary/Keyword: warning threshold

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Influences of Heat Waves on Daily Mortality in South Korea (한반도에서 여름철 폭염이 일 사망률에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Lee, Dae-Geun;Park, Il-Soo;Choi, Byoung-Cheol;Kim, Jeong-Sik
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.269-278
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    • 2006
  • Extremely hot weathers may cause major weather-related deaths in the summertime. Influences of heat waves on daily mortalities in 6 major cities of South Korea were investigated. Daily deaths at Seoul were exponentially increased with the daily maximum temperature. However, there were regional differences of the temperature dependence on the mortality because of an acclimation effect of inhabitants. The threshold temperature (with respect to daily maximum temperature) at Seoul was found to be about $31^{\circ}C$ provided that it is determined by a two-phase regression model. The meteorological causes of recordable hot summer in late July of 1994 and their impacts on human health were also investigated. Strong surface heating caused by strong insolation under conditions with clear sky and dry surface due to prolonged drought was likely to be closely associated with the extreme hot weather in 1994 in South Korea.

Tracing Fiscal Sustainability in Malaysia

  • LAU, Evan;LEE, Alvina Syn-Yee
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2021
  • One of the concerns in the economic policy circle is the fiscal sustainability. This current research revisit the notion of fiscal sustainability for Malaysia using the Indicator of Fiscal Sustainability (IFS) developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) where we employ samples of time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The findings reveal that 40 out of 48 years, during which the calculated IFS algorithm is above the threshold of 1, imply Malaysia was fiscally unsustainable. Despite having been fiscally unsustainable, Malaysia's fiscal stance shows improvement as a result of fiscal consolidation and fiscal reforms during the sample period. This is shown by the improved calculated IFS algorithm on average, which the value improved from 1.465 in 1970-1993 to 1.377 in 1998-2004 and to 1.146 in the 2006-2013. From the policy front, this indicator can serve as a precautionary early warning measure in formulating future fiscal path for Malaysia. This can be executed by targeting debt ratio and shifting the allocation of expenditures away from less efficient toward more growth-enhancing ones, which eventually would regain fiscal space to counter any incoming economic shocks in the future. This can enhance the fiscal transparency and assist in formulating a fiscal policy strategy in Malaysia.

Development of a New Flood Index for Local Flood Severity Predictions (국지홍수 심도예측을 위한 새로운 홍수지수의 개발)

  • Jo, Deok Jun;Son, In Ook;Choi, Hyun Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 2013
  • Recently, an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration due to global climate changes has occasioned the significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as most parts of the world. Such a local flood that usually occurs as the result of intense rainfall over small regions rises quite quickly with little or no advance warning time to prevent flood damage. To prevent the local flood damage, it is important to quickly predict the flood severity for flood events exceeding a threshold discharge that may cause the flood damage for inland areas. The aim of this study is to develop the NFI (New Flood Index) measuring the severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for use in local flood predictions by the regression analysis between the NFI and rainfall patterns. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model using the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observations for the two study catchments. The flood events above a threshold assumed as the 2-year return period discharge are targeted to estimate the NFI obtained by the geometric mean of the three relative severity factors, such as the flood magnitude ratio, the rising curve gradient, and the flooding duration time. The regression results show that the 3-hour maximum rainfall depths have the highest relationships with the NFI. It is expected that the best-fit regression equation between the NFI and rainfall characteristics can provide the basic database of the preliminary information for predicting the local flood severity in small ungauged catchments.

A Feasibility Study of a Field-specific Weather Service for Small-scale Farms in a Topographically Complex Watershed (지형이 복잡한 집수역의 소규모농장에 맞춘 기상서비스의 실현가능성)

  • Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.317-325
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    • 2015
  • An adequate downscaling of synoptic forecasts is a prerequisite for improved agrometeorological service to rural areas in South Korea where complex terrains and small farms are common. In this study, geospatial schemes based on topoclimatology were used to scale down the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) temperature forecasts to the local scale (~30 m) across a rural catchment. Then, using these schemes, local temperatures were estimated at 14 validation sites at 0600 and 1500 LST in 2013/2014 and were compared with the observations. The estimation errors were substantially reduced for both 0600 and 1500 LST temperatures when compared against the uncorrected KMA products. The improvement was most notable at low lying locations for the 0600 temperature and at the locations on west- and south-facing slopes for the 1500 LST temperature. Using the downscaled real-time temperature data, a pilot service has started to provide the field-specific weather information tailored to meet the requirements of small-scale farms. For example, the service system makes a daily outlook on the phenology of crop species grown in a given field using the field-specific temperature data. When the temperature forecast is given for next morning, a frost risk index is calculated according to a known relationship of phenology and frost injury. If the calculated index is higher than a pre-defined threshold, a warning is issued and delivered to the grower's cellular phone with relevant countermeasures to help protect crops against frost damage.

A Study on the Volcanic Ash Damage Sector Selection based on the Analysis of Overseas Cases and Domestic Spatial Information (해외 사례 분석과 국내 공간정보 분석을 통한 화산재 피해 분야 선정)

  • Han, Hyeon-gyeong;Baek, Won-kyung;Jung, Hyung-sup;Kim, Miri;Lee, Moungjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.5_1
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    • pp.751-761
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    • 2019
  • Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, Mt. Sakurajima, Mt. Kikai and etc are distributed around the Korean Peninsula. Recently signs of eruption of Mt. Baekdu are increasing, raising concerns over possible damage to volcanic ash from seasonal winds during the winter eruption. Therefore, detailed procedures for investigation and countermeasures for volcanic ash spread and damage are required. But the standards for the warning and alarm signal of volcanic ash presented by Korea Ministry of Government Legislation are vague, with "when damage is expected" and "when serious damage is expected". In this study, to analyze the damage threshold and to apply the cases of overseas damage to the country, a survey was conducted on the establishment of domestic spatial information by public institutions with public confidence. As a result of the investigation of damage from volcanic ash overseas, the details of the damage cases were different depending on the type of life or income sources of each country. Therefore, instead of applying the volcanic ash damage cases abroad in Korea, spatial information analysis was performed to reflect domestic social and natural characteristics. In addition, we selected the areas to be considered in the event of volcanic ash damage in Korea. Finally, domestic volcanic ash damages should be classified as health, residential, road, railroad, aviation, power, water, agriculture, livestock, forest, and soil. When establishing the volcanic ash alarm optimized for Korea in the future, overseas volcanic ash damage cases and domestic spatial information construction in this study will be helpful in policy establishment.

The Study of the Fitness on Calculation of the Flood Warning Trigger Rainfall Using GIS and GCUH (GIS와 GCUH를 이용한 돌발홍수 기준우량 산정의 타당성 검토 연구)

  • Shin, Hyun-Suk;Kim, Hong-Tae;Park, Moo-Jong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.407-424
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    • 2004
  • Using geomorphoclimatic unit hydrograph(GCUH), we estimated the fitness to calculate the mountainous area discharge and flash flood trigger rainfall(FFTR). First, we compared the GCUH peak discharge with the existing report using the design storm at the Dukcheon basin. Second, we compared the HEC-HMS(Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) model and GCUH with the observed discharge using the real rainfall events at the Taesu stage gage. Third, GCUH and NRCS(Natural Resources Conservation Service) were used for calculating FFTR and proper calculation method was shown. At the Dukcheon basin, the comparison result of using design storm was shown in Table 11, and it was not in excess of 1.1, except for the 30 year return period. In case of real rainfall events, the result was shown in Table 12, and GCUH discharges were all larger than the HEC-HMS model discharges, and they were very similar to the observed data at the Taesu stage gage. In this study, we found that GCUH was a very proper method in the calculation of mountainous discharge. At the Dukcheon basin, FFTR was 12.96 mm in the first 10 minutes when the threshold discharge was 95.59 $m^3$/sec.

Preliminary Study on Detection of Marine Heat Waves using Satellite-based Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in 2017-2018 (인공위성 해수면온도 편차 이용 한반도 연안 해역 고수온 탐지 : 2017-2018년도)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Yang, Chan-Su
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.678-686
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    • 2019
  • In this study, marine heat waves on coastal waters of Republic of Korea were detected using satellite-based Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA). The detected results were compared with the warm water issues reported by the National Institute of Fisheries Science (NIFS). Marine heat waves detection algorithm using SSTA based on a threshold has proposed. The threshold value was defined as 2℃ for caution and 3℃ for warning issues, respectively. Daily averaged SST data from July to September of 2017-2018 were used to generate SSTA. The satellite-based detection results were classified into nine areas according to the place names used in the NIFS warm water issues. In the comparison of frequency of marine heat waves occurrence to each area with the warm water issue, most areas in the southern coast showed a similar pattern, that is probably NIFS uses spatially well distributed buoys. On the other hand, other sea areas had about two times more satellite detection results. This result seems to be because NIFS only considers the water temperature data measured at limited points. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the development of a satellite-based warm/cold water monitoring system in coastal waters.

Determining the Flash Flood Warning Trigger Rainfall using GIS (GIS를 활용한 돌발홍수 기준우량 결정)

  • Hwang, Chang-Sup;Jun, Kye-Won;Yeon, In-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.78-88
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    • 2006
  • This paper is to apply Geographical Information System (GIS) supported Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GCIUH) approach for the calculated flash flood trigger rainfall of the mountainous area. GIS techniques was applied in geography data construction such as average slope, drainage area, channel characteristics. Especially, decided stream order using GIS at stream order decision that is important for input variable of GCIUH. We compared the GCIUH peak discharge with the existing report using the design storm at Chundong basin($14.58km^2$). The results showed that derived the GCIUH was a very proper method in the calculation of mountaunous discharge. At the Chundong basin, flash flood trigger rainfall was 12.57mm in the first 20 minutes when the threshold discharge was $11.42m^3/sec$.

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High Resolution Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Korea

  • Oh, Jai-Ho;Kim, Ok-Yeon;Yi, Han-Se;Kim, Tae-Kuk
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.74-79
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    • 2005
  • Recently, several attempts have been made to provide reasonable information on unusual severe weather phenomena such as tolerant heavy rains and very wild typhoons. Quantitative precipitation forecasts and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs and PQPFs, respectively) might be one of the most promising methodologies for early warning on the flesh floods because those diagnostic precipitation models require less computational resources than fine-mesh full-dynamics non-hydrostatic mesoscale model. The diagnostic rainfall model used in this study is the named QPM(Quantitative Precipitation Model), which calculates the rainfall by considering the effect of small-scale topography which is not treated in the mesoscale model. We examine the capability of probabilistic diagnostic rainfall model in terms of how well represented the observed several rainfall events and what is the most optimistic resolution of the mesoscale model in which diagnostic rainfall model is nested. Also, we examine the integration time to provide reasonable fine-mesh rainfall information. When we apply this QPM directly to 27 km mesh meso-scale model (called as M27-Q3), it takes about 15 min. while it takes about 87 min. to get the same resolution precipitation information with full dynamic downscaling method (called M27-9-3). The quality of precipitation forecast by M27-Q3 is quite comparable with the results of M27-9-3 with reasonable threshold value for precipitation. Based on a series of examination we may conclude that the proosed QPM has a capability to provide fine-mesh rainfall information in terms of time and accuracy compared to full dynamical fine-mesh meso-scale model.

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Night Time Leading Vehicle Detection Using Statistical Feature Based SVM (통계적 특징 기반 SVM을 이용한 야간 전방 차량 검출 기법)

  • Joung, Jung-Eun;Kim, Hyun-Koo;Park, Ju-Hyun;Jung, Ho-Youl
    • IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2012
  • A driver assistance system is critical to improve a convenience and stability of vehicle driving. Several systems have been already commercialized such as adaptive cruise control system and forward collision warning system. Efficient vehicle detection is very important to improve such driver assistance systems. Most existing vehicle detection systems are based on a radar system, which measures distance between a host and leading (or oncoming) vehicles under various weather conditions. However, it requires high deployment cost and complexity overload when there are many vehicles. A camera based vehicle detection technique is also good alternative method because of low cost and simple implementation. In general, night time vehicle detection is more complicated than day time vehicle detection, because it is much more difficult to distinguish the vehicle's features such as outline and color under the dim environment. This paper proposes a method to detect vehicles at night time using analysis of a captured color space with reduction of reflection and other light sources in images. Four colors spaces, namely RGB, YCbCr, normalized RGB and Ruta-RGB, are compared each other and evaluated. A suboptimal threshold value is determined by Otsu algorithm and applied to extract candidates of taillights of leading vehicles. Statistical features such as mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, and entropy are extracted from the candidate regions and used as feature vector for SVM(Support Vector Machine) classifier. According to our simulation results, the proposed statistical feature based SVM provides relatively high performances of leading vehicle detection with various distances in variable nighttime environments.