• Title/Summary/Keyword: vulnerability assessment

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A Mathematical Programming Method for Minimization of Carbon Debt of Bioenergy (바이오에너지의 탄소부채 최소화를 위한 수학적 계획법)

  • Choi, Soo Hyoung
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.269-274
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    • 2021
  • Bioenergy is generally considered to be one of the options for pursuing carbon neutrality. However, for a period of time, combustion of harvested plant biomass inevitably causes more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than combustion of fossil fuels. This paper proposes a method that predicts and minimizes the total amount and payback period of this carbon debt. As a case study, a carbon cycle impact assessment was performed for immediate switching of the currently used fossil fuels to biomass. This work points out a fundamental vulnerability in the concept of carbon neutrality. As an action plan for the sustainability of bioenergy, formulas for afforestation proportional to the decrease in the forest area and surplus harvest proportional to the increase in the forest mass are proposed. The results of optimization indicate that the carbon debt payback period is about 70 years, and the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases by more than 50% at a maximum and 3% at a steady state. These are theoretically predicted best results, which are expected to be worse in reality. Therefore, biomass is not truly carbon neutral, and it is inappropriate as an energy source alternative to fossil fuels. The method proposed in this work is expected to be able to contribute to the approach to carbon neutrality by minimizing present and future carbon debt of the bioenergy that is already in use.

An Ethical Consideration on the Standard Operating Procedure Operation Status and the Ethical Review of the Vulnerable Research Subjects of Institutional Review Board, a Medical Institution in Korea (우리나라 의료기관 Institutional Review Board의 취약한 연구 대상자 관련 표준운영지침서 운영 현황과 윤리적 고찰)

  • Eun Hwa Byun;Byung In Choe
    • The Journal of KAIRB
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2023
  • Purspose: The purpose of this study is to examine the meaning and definition of vulnerable subjects in clinical trials in light of domestic and international regulations and guidelines, to analyze the contents of standard operation procedures (SOPs) among advanced general hospitals in Korea that conduct clinical trials, and to examine deliberation procedures for operation plans. Methods: The study examined how vulnerable research subjects were defined and described in related regulations and the classification of vulnerable research subjects presented in the IRB/HRPP SOPs of 18 clinical trial institutions, including 11 AAHRPP-accreditated general hospitals in Korea, as well as the operation of the IRB deliberation. Results: Among all domestic and international regulations and guidelines, only the The Council for International Organization of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) guidelines explain why vulnerability is related to judgments on the severity of physical, psychological, and social harm, why individuals are vulnerable, and for what reasons. However, the classification of vulnerable subjects by institutions differed from the classification by the International Conference on Harmonization-Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP). A total of the 16 institutions classified children and minors as vulnerable research subjects. 14 institutions classified subjects who cannot consent freely were classified as vulnerable subjects. 15 institutions classified sujects who can be affected by the organizational hierarchy were classified as vulnerable subjects. Subjects in emergency situations were regarded as vulnerable research subjects in 8 of institutions, while people in wards, patients with incurable diseases, and the economically poor including the unemployed were categorized as vulnerable research subjects in 7, 4, and 4 of institutions, respectively. Additionally, some research subjects were not classified as vulnerable by ICH-GCP but were classified as vulnerable by domestic institutions 15 of the institutions classified pregnant women and fetuses as vulnerable, 11 classified the elderly as vulnerable, and 6 classified foreigners as vulnerable. Conclution: The regulations and institutional SOPs classify subjects differently, which may affect subject protection. There is a need to improve IRBs' classifications of vulnerable research subjects. It is also necessary to establish the standards according to the differences in deliberation processes. Further, it is recommended to maintain a consistent review of validity, assessment of risk/benefit, and a review using checklists and spokeperson. The review of IRB is to be carried out in a manner that respects human dignity by taking into account the physical, psychological, and social conditions of the subjects.

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Assessment of climate disaster vulnerability of Gangwon-do based on RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오 기반 강원도 기후 재난취약성 평가)

  • Lee, Hyeon Ji;Jeung, Se Jin;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.335-335
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    • 2022
  • 남한상세 기후변화 전망보고서(2021)는 2100년대 강원도 강수량이 현재보다 19% 증가하고, 평균기온이 현재보다 6.5℃ 상승할 것으로 공표했다. 강원도는 영동지역과 영서지역으로 분리돼 기후 차이가 분명하다. 기상청 ASOS 데이터(1986~2020)를 이용해 기후 특성을 확인한 결과 영동지역 강수량은 1,463mm, 평균기온은 10.5℃, 상대습도는 66%로 분석됐고, 영서지역 강수량은 1,307mm, 평균기온은 11℃, 상대습도는 68%로 분석됐다. 영동지역 강수량이 영서지역 강수량보다 약 156mm 더 많으며, 이는 영동지역에서 큰 규모의 우심 피해가 발생할 가능성이 존재함을 의미한다. 강원도 평년 우심 피해 현황을 살펴본 결과 영동지역은 5회(피해액: 62억 원), 영서지역은 24회(피해액: 62억원)가 발생했다. 이는 미래로 갈수록 더 심해질 것으로 판단되며, 이런 기상 재난을 객관적으로 판단할 수 있는 기준이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 강원도 기후 재난취약성을 평가했다. 이를 위해 기후변화 위험성, 기후변화 민감도, 기후변화 적응능력 지표를 활용해 기후변화 취약성 지표를 선정했다. 기후변화 위험성 지표는 홍수(CWD, Rx5day, R30mm), 가뭄(CDD, SU, TX90p), 폭염(SU, TR, TN90p), 한파(ID, TX10p, FD)로 RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오를 ETCCDI 지수에 적용했다. 기후변화 민감도와 기후변화 적응능력 지표는 국가통계포털, 강원통계정보, WAMIS에서 자료를 수집해 선정했다. 또한 재난취약성 지표를 4단계(Very Low, Low, High, Very High)로 구분했다. 홍수 취약성 평가 결과 2090년대 원주시, 춘천시, 횡성군이 Low에서 Very High로 단계가 격상됐다. 가뭄 취약성 평가 결과 2090년대 양양군, 영월군, 정선군이 Very Low에서 Very High로 단계가 격상됐다. 폭염 취약성 평가 결과 2090년대 삼척시, 태백시, 영월군이 Very Low에서 Very High로 단계가 격상됐다. 한파 취약성 평가 결과 삼척시, 태백시, 영월군이 High에서 Very Low로 단계가 격하됐다. 고로 강원도는 기후 재난취약성 평가 결과에 따른 미래 기후변화를 대비하고, 각 지역 특성에 맞는 복원력 관점 기후 재난 관리가 필요하다고 사료된다.

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Spatial and temporal trends in food security during the COVID-19 pandemic in Asia Pacific countries: India, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Vietnam

  • Yunhee Kang;Indira Prihartono;Sanghyo Kim;Subin Kim;Soomin Lee;Randall Spadoni;John McCormack;Erica Wetzler
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.149-164
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    • 2024
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The economic recession caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic disproportionately affected poor and vulnerable populations globally. Better uunderstanding of vulnerability to shocks in food supply and demand in the Asia Pacific region is needed. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Using secondary data from rapid assessment surveys during the pandemic response (n = 10,420 in mid-2020; n = 6,004 in mid-2021) in India, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Vietnam, this study examined the risk factors for reported income reduction or job loss in mid-2021 and the temporal trend in food security status (household food availability, and market availability and affordability of essential items) from mid-2020 to mid-2021. RESULTS: The proportion of job loss/reduced household income was highest in India (60.4%) and lowest in Indonesia (39.0%). Urban residence (odds ratio [OR] range, 2.20-4.11; countries with significant results only), female respondents (OR range, 1.40-1.69), engagement in daily waged labor (OR range, 1.54-1.68), and running a small trade/business (OR range, 1.66-2.71) were significantly associated with income reduction or job loss in three out of 4 countries (all P < 0.05). Food stock availability increased significantly in 2021 compared to 2020 in all four countries (OR range, 1.91-4.45) (all P < 0.05). Availability of all essential items at markets increased in India (OR range, 1.45-3.99) but decreased for basic foods, hygiene items, and medicine in Vietnam (OR range, 0.81-0.86) in 2021 compared to 2020 (all P < 0.05). In 2021, the affordability of all essential items significantly improved in India (OR range, 1.18-3.49) while the affordability of rent, health care, and loans deteriorated in Indonesia (OR range, 0.23-0.71) when compared to 2020 (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term social protection programs need to be carefully designed and implemented to address food insecurity among vulnerable groups, considering each country's market conditions, consumer food purchasing behaviors, and financial support capacity.

Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change (기후변화에 의한 눈잣나무의 서식지 분포 예측)

  • Park, Hyun-Chul;Lee, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Gwan-Gyu
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.379-392
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    • 2014
  • This study was performed to predict the future climate envelope of Pinus pumila, a subalpine plant and a Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species (CBIS) of Korea. P. pumila is distributed at Mt. seorak in South Korea. Suitable habitat were predicted under two alternative RCPscenarios (IPCC AR5). The SDM used for future prediction was a Maxent model, and the total number of environmental variables for Maxent was 8. It was found that the distribution range of P. pumila in the South Korean was $38^{\circ}7^{\prime}8^{{\prime}{\prime}}N{\sim}38^{\circ}7^{\prime}14^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ and $128^{\circ}28^{\prime}2^{{\prime}{\prime}}E{\sim}128^{\circ}27^{\prime}38^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ and 1,586m~1,688m in altitude. The variables that contribute the most to define the climate envelope are altitude. Climate envelope simulation accuracy was evaluated using the ROC's AUC. The P. pumila model's 5-cv AUC was found to be 0.99966. which showed that model accuracy was very high. Under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate envelope for P. pumila is predicted to decrease in South Korea. According to the results of the maxent model has been applied in the current climate, suitable habitat is $790.78km^2$. The suitable habitats, are distributed in the region of over 1,400m. Further, in comparison with the suitable habitat of applying RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 suitable habitat current, reduction of area RCP8.5 was greater than RCP4.5. Thus, climate change will affect the distribution of P. pumila. Therefore, governmental measures to conserve this species will be necessary. Additionally, for CBIS vulnerability analysis and studies using sampling techniques to monitor areas based on the outcomes of this study, future study designs should incorporate the use of climatic predictions derived from multiple GCMs, especially GCMs that were not the one used in this study. Furthermore, if environmental variables directly relevant to CBIS distribution other than climate variables, such as the Bioclim parameters, are ever identified, more accurate prediction than in this study will be possible.

Prediction of Acer pictum subsp. mono Distribution using Bioclimatic Predictor Based on SSP Scenario Detailed Data (SSP 시나리오 상세화 자료 기반 생태기후지수를 활용한 고로쇠나무 분포 예측)

  • Kim, Whee-Moon;Kim, Chaeyoung;Cho, Jaepil;Hur, Jina;Song, Wonkyong
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 2022
  • Climate change is a key factor that greatly influences changes in the biological seasons and geographical distribution of species. In the ecological field, the BioClimatic predictor (BioClim), which is most related to the physiological characteristics of organisms, is used for vulnerability assessment. However, BioClim values are not provided other than the future period climate average values for each GCM for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenario. In this study, BioClim data suitable for domestic conditions was produced using 1 km resolution SSPs scenario detailed data produced by Rural Development Administration, and based on the data, a species distribution model was applied to mainly grow in southern, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Gangwon-do and humid regions. Appropriate habitat distributions were predicted every 30 years for the base years (1981 - 2010) and future years (2011 - 2100) of the Acer pictum subsp. mono. Acer pictum subsp. mono appearance data were collected from a total of 819 points through the national natural environment survey data. In order to improve the performance of the MaxEnt model, the parameters of the model (LQH-1.5) were optimized, and 7 detailed biolicm indices and 5 topographical indices were applied to the MaxEnt model. Drainage, Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and Slope significantly contributed to the distribution of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Korea. As a result of reflecting the growth characteristics that favor moist and fertile soil, the influence of climatic factors was not significant. Accordingly, in the base year, the suitable habitat for a high level of Acer pictum subsp. mono is 3.41% of the area of Korea, and in the near future (2011 - 2040) and far future (2071 - 2100), SSP1-2.6 accounts for 0.01% and 0.02%, gradually decreasing. However, in SSP5-8.5, it was 0.01% and 0.72%, respectively, showing a tendency to decrease in the near future compared to the base year, but to gradually increase toward the far future. This study confirms the future distribution of vegetation that is more easily adapted to climate change, and has significance as a basic study that can be used for future forest restoration of climate change-adapted species.

Distributional Characteristics and Evaluation of the Population Sustainability, Factors Related to Vulnerability for a Polygonatum stenophyllum Maxim. (층층둥굴레(Polygonatum stenophyllum Maxim.)의 분포특성과 개체군의 위협요인 및 지속가능성 평가)

  • Kim, Young-Chul;Chae, Hyun-Hee;Ahn, Won-Gyeong;Lee, Kyu-Song;Nam, Gi-Heum;Kwak, Myoung-Hai
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.303-320
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    • 2019
  • Plants interact with various biotic and abiotic environmental factors. It requires much information to understand the traits of a plant species. A shortage of information would restrict the assessment, especially in the evaluation of what kind of factors influence a plant species to face extinction. Polygonatum stenophyllum Maxim. is one of the northern plants of which Korea is the southern distribution edge. The Korean Ministry of Environment had designated it to be the endangered species until December 2015. Although it is comparatively widespread, and a large population has recently been reported, it is assessed to be vulnerable due to the low population genetic diversity. This study evaluated the current distribution of Polygonatum stenophyllum Maxim. We investigated the vegetational environment, population structures, phenology, soil environment, and self-incompatibility based on the results. Lastly, we evaluated the current threats observed in the habitats. The habitats tended to be located in the areas where the masses at the edge of the stream accumulated except for those that were located on slopes of some mountainous areas. Most of them showed a stable population structure and had re-established or recruited seedlings. Polygonatum stenophyllum Maxim. had the difference in time when the shoots appeared above the ground depending on the depth of the rhizome located in the underground. In particular, the seedlings and juveniles had their rhizome located shallow in the soil. Visits by pollinator insects and success in pollination were crucial factors for bearing of fruits by Polygonatum stenophyllum Maxim. The threats observed in the habitat of Polygonatum stenophyllum Maxim. included the expansion of cultivated land, construction of new buildings, and construction of river banks and roads. Despite such observed risk factors, it is not likely that there would be rapid population reduction or extinction because of its widespread distribution with the total population of more than 2.7 million individuals and the new populations established by the re-colonization.

A Proposal for Korean armed forces preparing toward Future war: Examine the U.S. 'Mosaic Warfare' Concept (미래전을 대비한 한국군 발전방향 제언: 미국의 모자이크전 수행개념 고찰을 통하여)

  • Chang, Jin O;Jung, Jae-young
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.215-240
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    • 2020
  • In 2017, the U.S. DARPA coined 'mosaic warfare' as a new way of warfighting. According to the Timothy Grayson, director of DARPA's Strategic Technologies Office, mosaic warfare is a "system of system" approach to warfghting designed around compatible "tiles" of capabilities, rather than uniquely shaped "puzzle pieces" that must be fitted into a specific slot in a battle plan in order for it to work. Prior to cover mosaic warfare theory and recent development, it deals analyze its background and several premises for better understanding. The U.S. DoD officials might acknowledge the current its forces vulnerability to the China's A2/AD assets. Furthermore, the U.S. seeks to complete military superiority even in other nation's territorial domains including sea and air. Given its rapid combat restoration capability and less manpower casualty, the U.S. would be able to ready to endure war of attrition that requires massive resources. The core concept of mosaic warfare is a "decision centric warfare". To embody this idea, it create adaptability for U.S. forces and complexity or uncertainty for the enemy through the rapid composition and recomposition of a more disag g reg ated U.S. military force using human command and machine control. This allows providing more options to friendly forces and collapse adversary's OODA loop eventually. Adaptable kill web, composable force packages, A.I., and context-centric C3 architecture are crucial elements to implement and carry out mosaic warfare. Recently, CSBA showed an compelling assessment of mosaic warfare simulation. In this wargame, there was a significant differences between traditional and mosaic teams. Mosaic team was able to mount more simultaneous actions, creating additional complexity to adversaries and overwhelming their decision-making with less friendly force's human casualty. It increase the speed of the U.S. force's decision-making, enabling commanders to better employ tempo. Consequently, this article finds out and suggests implications for Korea armed forces. First of all, it needs to examine and develop 'mosaic warfare' in terms of our security circumstance. In response to future warfare, reviewing overall force structure and architecture is required which is able to compose force element regardless domain. In regards to insufficient defense resources and budget, "choice" and "concentration" are also essential. It needs to have eyes on the neighboring countries' development of future war concept carefully.

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