• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.261-272
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• 2012

In this study, climate variability was predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under two different scenarios (current trends scenario; SC1 and managed scenario; SC2) for future urban growth over the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA). We used the urban growth model, SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-Shade) to predict the future urban growth in SMA. As a result, the difference of urban ratio between two scenarios was the maximum up to 2.2% during 50 years (2000~2050). Also, the results of SLEUTH like this were adjusted in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to analysis the difference of the future climate for the future urbanization effect. By scenarios of urban growth, we knew that the significant differences of surface temperature with a maximum of about 4 K and PBL height with a maximum of about 200 m appeared locally in newly urbanized area. However, wind speeds are not sensitive for the future urban growth in SMA. These results show that we need to consider the future land-use changes or future urban extension in the study for the prediction of future climate changes.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.621-639
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• 2000

도시는 산업혁명 이후 급속히 발달하기 시작한 인간의 대표적인 정주공간으로, 산업활동의 집중, 도시로의 인구유입으로 공간적인 범위가 확대되어 가고 있다. 급속한 도시성장은 환경을 악화시키고 있으며, 이에 따른 온실효과, 대기오염의 증가 등은 심각한 도시문제로 떠오르고 있다. 지속 가능한 도시성장을 위해 도시가 어떻게 성장해 왔는가를 분석하고, 향후의 도시성장을 예측하며, 이에 대한 적절한 대안을 모색하는 것은 도시관리를 위해 매우 중요한 문제이다. 본 연구에서는 서울대도시지역을 대상으로 1957년부터 1997년까지의 도시성장에 관한 자료를 구축하고, 셀룰라 오토마타(Cellular Automata) 개념에 기초하고 있는 도시성장모델(UGM)을 이용하여 1998년부터 2050년까지의 서울대도시지역의 도시성장을 예측하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.367-379
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• 2010

Future climate changes over the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) were predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using future land-use data from the urban growth model (SLEUTH) and forecast fields from ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM (IPCC scenario A1B). Simulations from the SLEUTH model with GIS information (slope, urban, hill-shade, etc.) derived from the water management information system (WAMIS) and the intelligent transportation systems-standard nodes link (ITS-SNL) showed that considerable increase by 17.1% in the fraction of urban areas (FUA) was found within the SMA in 2020. To identify the effects of the urban growth on the temperature and wind variations in the future, WRF simulations by considering urban growth were performed for two seasons (summer and winter) in 2020s (2018~2022) and they were compared with those in the present (2003~2007). Comparisons of model results showed that significant changes in surface temperature (2-meter) were found in an area with high urban growth. On average in model domain, positive increases of $0.31^{\circ}C$ and $0.10^{\circ}C$ were predicted during summer and winter, respectively. These were higher than contributions forced by climate changes. The changes in surface temperature, however, were very small expect for some areas. This results suggested that surface temperature in metropolitan areas like the SMA can be significantly increased only by the urban growth during several decades.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.114-128
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• 2013

Rapid industrialization and economic growth have led to serious problems including reduced open space, environmental degradation, traffic congestion, and urban sprawl. These problems have been exacerbated by the absence of effective conservation and governance, and have resulted in various social conflicts. In response to these challenges, many scholar and government hope to achieve sustainable development through the establishment and management of environment-friendly planning. For this purpose, we would like to analyze functional change for ecosystem by future land-use/cover changes in South Korea. Toward this goal, we predicted land-use/cover changes from 2010 to 2060 using the future population of Statistics Korea and urban growth probability map created by logistic regression analysis and analyzed ecosystem service value using costanza's coefficient. In the case of scenario 1, ecosystem service value represented 6,783~7,092 million USD. In the case of scenario 2, ecosystem represented 6,775~7,089 million USD, 2.9~7.6 million USD decreased compared by scenario 1. This was the result of area reduction for farmland and wetland which have high environmental value relatively according to urban growth by development point of view. The results of this analysis indicate that environmentally sustainable systems and urban development must be applied to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection. Quantitative analysis of environmental values in accordance with environmental policy can help inform the decisions of policy makers and urban developers. Furthermore, forecasting urban growth based on future demand will provide more precise predictive analysis.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.93-101
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• 2013

PURPOSES : This study is to investigate the relationship of socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure with traffic growth patterns. The findings is to be used to tweak traffic forecast provided by traditional four step process using relevant socioeconomic and road network data. METHODS: Comprehensive statistical analysis is used to identify key explanatory variables using historical observations on traffic forecast, actual traffic counts and surrounding environments. Based on statistical results, a multiple regression model is developed to predict the effects of socioeconomic and road network attributes on traffic growth patterns. The validation of the proposed model is also performed using a different set of historical data. RESULTS : The statistical analysis results indicate that several socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure cleary affect the tendency of over- and under-estimation of road traffics. Among them, land use is a key factor which is revealed by a factor that traffic forecast for urban road tends to be under-estimated while rural road traffic prediction is generally over-estimated. The model application suggests that tweaking the traffic forecast using the proposed model can reduce the discrepancies between the predicted and actual traffic counts from 30.4% to 21.9%. CONCLUSIONS : Prediction of road traffic growth patterns based on surrounding socioeconomic and road network attributes can help develop the optimal strategy of road construction plan by enhancing reliability of traffic forecast as well as tendency of traffic growth.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.31-50
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• 1992

The aim of this paper is to define major factors influencing land development of each of major uses (residential, commercial, industrial) in the process of rapid urban expansion. The main hypothesis of this study is that land use changing patterns are directed by supply side of land managed to public policies rather than demand side. The graphic analysis is applied to relationships between urban growth and land development process of each use and between land development project managed to public policies and land development process. Public and land development projects and zonning protection seem to be major roles of land supply and main determinants of urban spatial structure. Location factors for land development of each uses are selected in 23 variables. Factor analysis is applied to test correlation between variables in 1971 and 1981. Factor structure between two years is similar, but progressive processing of functional separation is derived such as intensive land use is grouped, different location between residential and industrial use is deep. Dependent variables are standardized to logarithm of land development of each use per unit vacant land in two periods, between 1971 and 1980 year and between 1981 year. Correlation analysis between 6 dependent variables and 23 location factors in each years are applied. Major factors of each use are selected in criteria such as high correlation with dependent variables, low correlation between independent variables and common application in two periods. As the result, major factors for residential land development are Land Readjustment Project (LRP), percent of total zoned area in residential zone, residential floor space density per available area, percent of total area in industrial use; for commercial development is distance to CBD, percent of total area in commercial use, residential floor space density per available area in each year, and volumn rate of industrial use; for industrial use is percent of total area of industrial use is percent of total area of industrial use, Industrial Estate Project (IES), LRP, and distance from CBD. Land development pattern of each use between two periods are slightly different. So 6 equation is derived from appling backward method of regession. Adjusted multiple R squares of all is more than 0.5 and those equation is statistically significant and valuable to assist urban land use forecasting.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.27-43
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• 2008

This study analyzes the changes of Gyeongju local society because of setting up low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site by using urban dynamics model. Specifically, after examining 'Gyeongju Long-Term Development Plan' announced in 2007, I establish the number of industries, population, gross local product, residents' income, and the long term employment condition as essential change-causing factors in Gyeongju local society based on the Big3 government project, and forecast it by using 'Gyeongju long-Term Development Plan' and all sorts of statistical data. In this stage, I assume 3 scenarios(basic, optimistic, and pessimistic view) to estimate the changes of local society more exquisitely, and scenarios are composed through mediation about variables of a growth rate and an inflow or outflow rate. The result shows that Gyeonaju local society would have growing changes by 2020. The essential change-causing factors are as follows. The case of population is estimated that it starts going down at the level of approximately 270 thousand by 2009, starts going up continuously after 2009, the year of completion of low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site, and increases from the level of about 300 thousand as minimum to 340 thousand as maximum in 2020. The estimates of other cases are made that the number of Industries has about 10 thousand increases, gross local product has almost 6 trillion increases, nominal gross national income doubles, as well as residences have approximately 280 thousand increases, and also made that employment condition also improves continuously, and diffusion ratio of house starts going up but the amount of supplies is a little bit insufficient in the long view.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.51 no.5
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• pp.30-43
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• 2023

Green infrastructure(GI) is considered a key strategy in establishing sustainable communities. However, research on GI from the perspective of urban system dynamics and resilience lacks depth, as does its integration with physical design. This research addresses two primary causes. First, there is a gap in methods between existing GI planning, which considers static variables, and urban modeling research, which addresses dynamic variables. Second, there is a gap in information between landscape design and urban modeling research. To address these issues, this study proposes an integrated modeling approach in consideration of design decision-making. By combining the LEAM model and MCDA model, this study evaluates the relationship between GI services and socioeconomic growth, while spatially forecasting the geographies of GI demand in 2050. The resulting information reveals a potential degradation in ecosystem services over the region due to Chicago's sub-urbanization. This indicates that there would be a spatial shift in GI demand, emphasizing the need for comprehensive, dynamic GI strategies. This study further discusses the applications of evidence-based design in a studio environment. This study aims to contribute to the GeoDesign literature in terms of the creation of a more resilient urban environment by facilitating efficient evidence-based decision-making.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.156-167
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• 2011

The number of buildings is growing at a rapid pace in Korea. It is driven by significant economic improvements, the rapid population growth and urban centralization. Such being this case, some city are underway to building enlargement, Manhattanization. To Solve these problem and ensure the safety of live, fire Evacuation Simulation system is used for safe check of buildings. Forecasting an egress behavior in building fire is so important in order to construct a safe and reliable environment. But, currently most of the fire evacuation simulation system used in practice are foreign software that is not reflect korean conditions. Thus, This study focus on objectives that develop a fire evacuation system considering Korean Characteristics and create 3D space-based topology. so the system calculate evacuation path. This system developed as a result of research can be used by architectural designer in practice due to it is based 3D spatial information modeling.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.105-117
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• 2012

Future climate according to land-use change was simulated by regional climate model. The goal of study was to predict the distribution of meteorological elements using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The KME (Korea Ministry of Environment) medium-category land-use classification was used as dominant vegetation types. Meteorological modeling requires higher and more sophisticated land-use and initialization data. The WRF model simulations with HyTAG land-use indicated certain change in potential vegetation distribution in the future (2086-2088). Compared to the past (1986-1988) distribution, coniferous forest area was decreased in metropolitan and areas with complex terrain. The research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate with high resolution. As a result, the future climate was predicted to $4.5^{\circ}$ which was $0.5^{\circ}$ higher than prediction by Meteorological Administration. To improve future prediction of regional area, regional climate model with HyTAG as well as high resolution initial values such as urban growth and CO2 flux simulation would be desirable.