Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가)

Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment (한국환경영향평가학회)
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A Simulation Study on Future Climate Change Considering Potential Forest Distribution Change in Landcover

잠재 산림분포 변화를 고려한 토지이용도가 장래 기후변화에 미치는 영향 모사

  • Kim, Jea-Chul (Dep. of Environmental Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Chong Bum (Dep. of Environmental Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Choi, Sungho (Dep. of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)
  • 김재철 (강원대학교 환경과학과) ;
  • 이종범 (강원대학교 환경과학과) ;
  • 최성호 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과)
  • Received : 2011.09.24
  • Accepted : 2011.12.30
  • Published : 2012.02.29
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Abstract

Future climate according to land-use change was simulated by regional climate model. The goal of study was to predict the distribution of meteorological elements using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The KME (Korea Ministry of Environment) medium-category land-use classification was used as dominant vegetation types. Meteorological modeling requires higher and more sophisticated land-use and initialization data. The WRF model simulations with HyTAG land-use indicated certain change in potential vegetation distribution in the future (2086-2088). Compared to the past (1986-1988) distribution, coniferous forest area was decreased in metropolitan and areas with complex terrain. The research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate with high resolution. As a result, the future climate was predicted to $4.5^{\circ}$ which was $0.5^{\circ}$ higher than prediction by Meteorological Administration. To improve future prediction of regional area, regional climate model with HyTAG as well as high resolution initial values such as urban growth and CO2 flux simulation would be desirable.

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