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http://dx.doi.org/10.11108/kagis.2013.16.2.114

A Prediction and Analysis for Functional Change of Ecosystem in South Korea  

Kim, Jin-Soo (ZEN21 Inc.)
Park, So-Young (Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Pukyong National University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies / v.16, no.2, 2013 , pp. 114-128 More about this Journal
Abstract
Rapid industrialization and economic growth have led to serious problems including reduced open space, environmental degradation, traffic congestion, and urban sprawl. These problems have been exacerbated by the absence of effective conservation and governance, and have resulted in various social conflicts. In response to these challenges, many scholar and government hope to achieve sustainable development through the establishment and management of environment-friendly planning. For this purpose, we would like to analyze functional change for ecosystem by future land-use/cover changes in South Korea. Toward this goal, we predicted land-use/cover changes from 2010 to 2060 using the future population of Statistics Korea and urban growth probability map created by logistic regression analysis and analyzed ecosystem service value using costanza's coefficient. In the case of scenario 1, ecosystem service value represented 6,783~7,092 million USD. In the case of scenario 2, ecosystem represented 6,775~7,089 million USD, 2.9~7.6 million USD decreased compared by scenario 1. This was the result of area reduction for farmland and wetland which have high environmental value relatively according to urban growth by development point of view. The results of this analysis indicate that environmentally sustainable systems and urban development must be applied to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection. Quantitative analysis of environmental values in accordance with environmental policy can help inform the decisions of policy makers and urban developers. Furthermore, forecasting urban growth based on future demand will provide more precise predictive analysis.
Keywords
Land-Use/Cover Change; Logistic Regression; Urban Growth Probability Map; Ecosystem Service Value;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
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