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Prediction of Key Variables Affecting NBA Playoffs Advancement: Focusing on 3 Points and Turnover Features (미국 프로농구(NBA)의 플레이오프 진출에 영향을 미치는 주요 변수 예측: 3점과 턴오버 속성을 중심으로)

  • An, Sehwan;Kim, Youngmin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.263-286
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    • 2022
  • This study acquires NBA statistical information for a total of 32 years from 1990 to 2022 using web crawling, observes variables of interest through exploratory data analysis, and generates related derived variables. Unused variables were removed through a purification process on the input data, and correlation analysis, t-test, and ANOVA were performed on the remaining variables. For the variable of interest, the difference in the mean between the groups that advanced to the playoffs and did not advance to the playoffs was tested, and then to compensate for this, the average difference between the three groups (higher/middle/lower) based on ranking was reconfirmed. Of the input data, only this year's season data was used as a test set, and 5-fold cross-validation was performed by dividing the training set and the validation set for model training. The overfitting problem was solved by comparing the cross-validation result and the final analysis result using the test set to confirm that there was no difference in the performance matrix. Because the quality level of the raw data is high and the statistical assumptions are satisfied, most of the models showed good results despite the small data set. This study not only predicts NBA game results or classifies whether or not to advance to the playoffs using machine learning, but also examines whether the variables of interest are included in the major variables with high importance by understanding the importance of input attribute. Through the visualization of SHAP value, it was possible to overcome the limitation that could not be interpreted only with the result of feature importance, and to compensate for the lack of consistency in the importance calculation in the process of entering/removing variables. It was found that a number of variables related to three points and errors classified as subjects of interest in this study were included in the major variables affecting advancing to the playoffs in the NBA. Although this study is similar in that it includes topics such as match results, playoffs, and championship predictions, which have been dealt with in the existing sports data analysis field, and comparatively analyzed several machine learning models for analysis, there is a difference in that the interest features are set in advance and statistically verified, so that it is compared with the machine learning analysis result. Also, it was differentiated from existing studies by presenting explanatory visualization results using SHAP, one of the XAI models.

MDP(Markov Decision Process) Model for Prediction of Survivor Behavior based on Topographic Information (지형정보 기반 조난자 행동예측을 위한 마코프 의사결정과정 모형)

  • Jinho Son;Suhwan Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2023
  • In the wartime, aircraft carrying out a mission to strike the enemy deep in the depth are exposed to the risk of being shoot down. As a key combat force in mordern warfare, it takes a lot of time, effot and national budget to train military flight personnel who operate high-tech weapon systems. Therefore, this study studied the path problem of predicting the route of emergency escape from enemy territory to the target point to avoid obstacles, and through this, the possibility of safe recovery of emergency escape military flight personnel was increased. based problem, transforming the problem into a TSP, VRP, and Dijkstra algorithm, and approaching it with an optimization technique. However, if this problem is approached in a network problem, it is difficult to reflect the dynamic factors and uncertainties of the battlefield environment that military flight personnel in distress will face. So, MDP suitable for modeling dynamic environments was applied and studied. In addition, GIS was used to obtain topographic information data, and in the process of designing the reward structure of MDP, topographic information was reflected in more detail so that the model could be more realistic than previous studies. In this study, value iteration algorithms and deterministic methods were used to derive a path that allows the military flight personnel in distress to move to the shortest distance while making the most of the topographical advantages. In addition, it was intended to add the reality of the model by adding actual topographic information and obstacles that the military flight personnel in distress can meet in the process of escape and escape. Through this, it was possible to predict through which route the military flight personnel would escape and escape in the actual situation. The model presented in this study can be applied to various operational situations through redesign of the reward structure. In actual situations, decision support based on scientific techniques that reflect various factors in predicting the escape route of the military flight personnel in distress and conducting combat search and rescue operations will be possible.

Effects of Polar Literacy Education Program for Elementary and Middle School Students (초·중학생 대상 극지 소양 교육 프로그램의 효과)

  • Sueim Chung;Donghee Shin
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a polar literacy education program for elementary and middle school students, and to derive implications for new education to respond to climate change. We developed modular education programs based on the seven principles of polar literacy established by the Polar-ICE team. We divided them into two courses, one emphasizing science concepts and another emphasizing humanities and sociological issues. We then selected and structured detailed programs suitable for the two courses. These two courses were applied to 26 elementary and middle school students for approximately 69 hours in a Saturday science class hosted by the Department of Science Education at a university in Seoul. The 26 students were divided into three groups. Two groups completed the science education program for polar literacy and a humanities and social studies education program for polar literacy, respectively. The third group, the control group, received general science education unrelated to polar literacy. Before and after running the programs, all three groups responded to a polar literacy test and questionnaires that used vocabulary and presented scenes associated with polar regions. The test results were expressed using Wilcoxon signed ranks, which is a non-parametric test method, and improvements made upon completion of the program were analyzed. From a cognitive aspect, all three groups showed improvement after completing the program in the knowledge area; however, the experimental groups showed a greater degree of improvement than the control group, and there was a clear difference in the contents or materials explicitly covered. From an affective aspect, the difference between before and after the program was minor, but the group that focused on humanities and social issues showed a statistically significant improvement. Regarding changes in polar imagery, the two experimental groups tended to diverge from monotonous images to more diverse images compared to the control group. Based on the above results, we suggested methods to increase the effectiveness of polar literacy education programs, the importance of polar literacy as appropriate material for scientific thinking and earth system education, measures to improve attitudes related to the polar region, and the need to link to school curriculums.

Analysis of Tourism Popularity Using T-map Search andSome Trend Data: Focusing on Chuncheon-city, Gangwon-province (T맵 검색지와 썸트랜드 데이터를 이용한 관광인기도분석: 강원도 춘천을 중심으로)

  • TaeWoo Kim;JaeHee Cho
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2022
  • Covid-19, of which the first patient in Korea occurred in January 2020, has affected various fields. Of these, the tourism sector might havebeen hit the hardest. In particular, since tourism-based industrial structure forms the basis of the region, Gangwon-province, and the tourism industry is the main source of income for small businesses and small enterprises, the damage is great. To check the situation and extent of such damage, targeting the Chuncheon region, where public access is the most convenient among the Gangwon regions, one-day tours are possible using public transportation from Seoul and the metropolitan area, with a general image that low expense tourism is recognized as possible, this study conducted empirical analysis through data analysis. For this, the general status of the region was checked based on the visitor data of Chuncheon city provided by the tourist information system, and to check the levels ofinterest in 2019, before Covid-19, and in 2020, after Covid-19, by comparing keywords collected from the web service sometrend of Vibe Company Inc., a company specializing in keyword collection, with SK Telecom's T-map search site data, which in parallel provides in-vehicle navigation service and communication service, this study analyzed the general regional image of Chuncheon-city. In addition, by comparing data from two years by developing a tourism popularity index applying keywords and T-map search site data, this study examined how much the Covid-19 situation affected the level of interest of visitors to the Chuncheon area leading to actual visits using a data analysis approach. According to the results of big data analysis applying the tourism popularity index after designing the data mart, this study confirmed that the effect of the Covid-19 situation on tourism popularity in Chuncheon-city, Gangwon-provincewas not significant, and confirmed the image of tourist destinations based on the regional characteristics of the region. It is hoped that the results of this research and analysis can be used as useful reference data for tourism economic policy making.

A Study on the Ecological Factors Affecting the Quality of Life among the Elderly People (노년기 삶의 질에 영향을 미치는 생태체계적 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Na-Rae;Park, Chung-Sun
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.761-779
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the quality of life of elderly people from the ecological perspective. Specifically, this study attempts to compare the relative contributions of the variables from the individual system, microsystem, mesosystem, and macrosystem on the quality of life of the elderly people. The subjects for this study consisted of 443 elderly over 60 years old in Daegu city, Gyeongsang-do, and Chungchung-do areas. The data were collected randomly by interviews with a structured questionnaire, and analyzed by frequencies, means, ANOVA, and hierarchial regression method. The major-findings of this study were as follows: 1. The quality of life of the elderly consisted of four factors; physical, economic, psychological, and social factors. The highest satisfaction score for the quality of life was found in psychological factors, The global satisfaction score for the quality of life was found to be relatively high. 2. Out of the individual factors influencing the quality of life of the elderly, the economic status of the respondent was found to be the most important. Out of the microsystemic factors, the most important factors were found to be the intimacy with the spouse and with the children. Out of the mesosysystemic factors, the degree of the social participation of the elderly was found to be the most significant. However, none of the macrosystemic factors were found to be important in influencing the quality of life of the elderly people. 3. The relative significances of the variables contributing to the quality of life of the elderly were analyzed using a hierarchical regression technique. It was found that there was no significant factor in social background and mesosystemic variables. On the other hand, the degree of the self-efficacy and the level of the economic status from the individual factors, and the intimacy with the spouse and the children from microsystemic factors were found to be very significant in contributing the quality of life of the elderly.

An Importance Analysis on the NCS-Based Skin Care Qualification L3 Level of Education in Life Care (라이프케어의 피부미용 NCS기반 자격 L3수준의 교육 중요도 연구)

  • Park, Chae-Young;Park, Jeong-Yeon
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.263-271
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    • 2019
  • The recent phenomenon of job "Miss Match", which is inconsistent with knowledge in the demand of educational training institutes and industries, has spread to an increase in private education costs for reeducation and employment of new hires, resulting in weak individual job competency and poor employment capability, as well as economic and material waste at the national level. To compensate for these problems, the National Competency Standards(NCS), which are available immediately in practice and look for a standard point of national job competency with the aim of fostering human resources sought by industries, were developed, and even the NCS-based qualification system was launched in line with the stream of times. This study is intended to look into the importance and priority of competency units and competency unit elements at the NCS-based qualification L3 level in the skin care field for an overall check of the NCS-based qualification level at a time when educational institutes are organizing and operating the school curriculums according to the NCS and NCS-based qualification level. And it is attempted to provide basic data for the development of curriculum in fostering professional human resources required by industries. To analyze the needs for competency units and competency unit elements at the L3 level, a survey using AHP method was carried out to a group of field experts and a group of education experts. In addition, the SPSS(Statistical Package for Social Science) ver. 21.0 and Expert Choice 2000, an AHP-only solution was used to do statistical processing through the processes of data coding and data cleaning. The findings showed that there was a partial difference of opinion between a group of field experts and a group of education experts. This indicates that the inconsistencies between educational training institutes and industrial sites should be resolved at this time of change with the aim of fostering field customized human resources with professional skills. Consequently, the solution is to combine jobs at industrial sites and standardized educations of educational institutes with human resources required at industrial sites.

The Effects of Nursing Work Environment and Role Conflict on Job Embeddedness among Nurses of Long-term Care Hospital (요양병원 근무 간호사의 직무배태성에 미치는 영향: 근무환경과 역할갈등 중심으로)

  • Son, Sookyeon;Kim, Shinmi
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.663-677
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    • 2019
  • This study was performed to identify the relationship and effects of nursing work environment and role conflict on job embeddedness among nurses working in long-term care hospitals. The data were collected from 200 nurses working in 10 long-term care hospitals from G - province from July to August 2018. Structured questionnaires assessing general characteristics and three major variables were distributed to the study participants and final 190 data set were analyzed using SPSS ver 25.0 program. Study results were as follows; mean score of job embeddedness was 2.98±0.46 out of 5 and the score of sub-domains were in order of fit, links, and sacrifice. The average score of the nursing work environment was 3.14 ± 0.42 and the leadership was the highest sub-domain followed by the working system, the relationship with peers, and the support of the institution. Overall role conflicts score was 3.43 ± 0.51, and environmental disorder, role ambiguity, lack of ability, lack of cooperation were reported in order as sub-domains. Job embeddedness of the study participants showed a statistically significant positive correlation with the nursing work environment and negative correlation with the role conflict. Factors affecting job embeddedness were nursing work environment, age, and role conflict, and the explanatory power of the model was 50.4%. The findings suggest that the overall level of job embeddedness of nurses working in long-term care hospitals is below middle level and efforts to improve job embeddedness through strategies related to nursing work environment and role conflict in organizational level. In addition, the relationship between age and job embeddedness needs to be studied further.

The Effect of Consumers' Value Motives on the Perception of Blog Reviews Credibility: the Moderation Effect of Tie Strength (소비자의 가치 추구 동인이 블로그 리뷰의 신뢰성 지각에 미치는 영향: 유대강도에 따른 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Chu, Wujin;Roh, Min Jung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.159-189
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    • 2012
  • What attracts consumers to bloggers' reviews? Consumers would be attracted both by the Bloggers' expertise (i.e., knowledge and experience) and by his/her unbiased manner of delivering information. Expertise and trustworthiness are both virtues of information sources, particularly when there is uncertainty in decision-making. Noting this point, we postulate that consumers' motives determine the relative weights they place on expertise and trustworthiness. In addition, our hypotheses assume that tie strength moderates consumers' expectation on bloggers' expertise and trustworthiness: with expectation on expertise enhanced for power-blog user-group (weak-ties), and an expectation on trustworthiness elevated for personal-blog user-group (strong-ties). Finally, we theorize that the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review is moderated by tie strength; the predictive power of credibility is more prominent for the personal-blog user-groups than for the power-blog user groups. To support these assumptions, we conducted a field survey with blog users, collecting retrospective self-report data. The "gourmet shop" was chosen as a target product category, and obtained data analyzed by structural equations modeling. Findings from these data provide empirical support for our theoretical predictions. First, we found that the purposive motive aimed at satisfying instrumental information needs increases reliance on bloggers' expertise, but interpersonal connectivity value for alleviating loneliness elevates reliance on bloggers' trustworthiness. Second, expertise-based credibility is more prominent for power-blog user-groups than for personal-blog user-groups. While strong ties attract consumers with trustworthiness based on close emotional bonds, weak ties gain consumers' attention with new, non-redundant information (Levin & Cross, 2004). Thus, when the existing knowledge system, used in strong ties, does not work as smoothly for addressing an impending problem, the weak-tie source can be utilized as a handy reference. Thus, we can anticipate that power bloggers secure credibility by virtue of their expertise while personal bloggers trade off on their trustworthiness. Our analysis demonstrates that power bloggers appeal more strongly to consumers than do personal bloggers in the area of expertise-based credibility. Finally, the effect of review credibility on willingness to accept a review is higher for the personal-blog user-group than for the power-blog user-group. Actually, the inference that review credibility is a potent predictor of assessing willingness to accept a review is grounded on the analogy that attitude is an effective indicator of purchase intention. However, if memory about established attitudes is blocked, the predictive power of attitude on purchase intention is considerably diminished. Likewise, the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review can be affected by certain moderators. Inspired by this analogy, we introduced tie strength as a possible moderator and demonstrated that tie strength moderated the effect of credibility on willingness to accept a review. Previously, Levin and Cross (2004) showed that credibility mediates strong-ties through receipt of knowledge, but this credibility mediation is not observed for weak-ties, where a direct path to it is activated. Thus, the predictive power of credibility on behavioral intention - that is, willingness to accept a review - is expected to be higher for strong-ties.

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History and Characteristics of Risk Perception and Response Related to Science: Focused on Blood Pressure (과학에 관련된 위험 인식과 대응의 역사와 특징 -혈압을 중심으로-)

  • Wonbin Jang;Minchul Kim
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.549-562
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    • 2023
  • The current society is in the VUCA era, where various risks produced by humans are spread along with the development of science and technology. There is a need to increase the level of risk literacy of citizens to strengthen their daily preparedness to respond to these risks. For this on, it is necessary to reconsider the role of science education so that risks can be perceived and responded to scientifically and objectively. Accordingly, in order to investigate the role of science education in a risk society, this study reviewed the history of risk perception and response related to science and analyzed its characteristics. In this process, perception and response to risks arising from blood pressure were analyzed in three contexts (historical context, curriculum context, textbook context). For historical context, journals registered in SCIE were selected as research subjects among journals where research related to the history of knowledge of the heart and cardiovascular system was conducted. Papers with the keywords 'hypertension' and 'history' were selected from the journals, and changes in perception and responses related to blood pressure were compared and analyzed by period. The curriculum context is analyzed from the 1st national curriculum to the 2022 revised curriculum, and content elements and achievement standard related to blood pressure were compared and analyzed. It was confirmed that risks arising from blood pressure were not included from the 1st to the 6th national curriculum, and that risks arising from blood pressure were included from the 7th national curriculum (excluding the 2009 revised curriculum). For the textbook context, the 7th national curriculum BiologyⅠ, the 2015 revised curriculum Life ScienceⅠ, and Health were selected, and through text mining, keywords that representing curriculums and textbooks were selected, and the presentation of risk perception and response was analyzed based on the keywords. And by analyzing the figures and tables presented in the textbook, the characteristics of risk perception and risk response were derived. This study is meaningful in that it was able to confirm the role of risk perception and response in science education.

An Understanding the Opening Style of the West Philippine Basin Through Multibeam High-Resolution Bathymetry (고해상도 다중빔음향측심 지형자료 분석을 통한 서필리핀분지의 진화 연구)

  • Hanjin Choe;Hyeonuk Shin
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.643-654
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    • 2023
  • The West Philippine Basin, an oceanic basin half the size of the Philippine Sea Plate, lies in the western part of the plate and south of the Korean Peninsula on the Eurasian Plate. It subducts beneath the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Islands bordering the Ryukyu Trench and the Philippine Trench with 25-50% of this basin already consumed. However, the history of the opening of the basin's southern region has been a topic of debate. The non-transform discontinuity formed during the seafloor spreading is similar to the transform fault boundaries normally perpendicular to mid-ocean ridge axes; however, it was created irregularly due to ridge propagations caused by variations of mantle convection attributable to magma supply changes. By analyzing high-resolution multi-beam echo-sounding data, we confirmed that the non-transform discontinuity due to the propagating rift evolved in the entire basin and that the abyssal hill strike direction changed from E-W to NNW-SSE from the fossil spreading center. In the early stage of basin extension, the Amami-Sankaku Basin was rotated 90 degrees clockwise from its current orientation, and it bordered the Palau Basin along the Mindanao Fracture Zone. The Amami-Sankaku Basin separated from the Palau Basin while the spreading of the West Philippine Basin began with a counter-clockwise rotation. This indicates that the non-transform discontinuities formed by a sudden change in magma supply due to the drift of the Philippine Sea Plate and simultaneously with the rapid changes in the spreading direction from ENE-WSW to N-S. The Palau Basin was considered to be the sub-south of the West Philippine Basin, but recent studies have shown that it extends into an independent system. Evidence from sediment layers and crustal thickness hints at the possibility of its existence before the West Philippine Basin opened, although its evolution continues to be debated. We performed a combined analysis using high-resolution multi-beam bathymetry and satellite gravity data to uncover new insights into the evolution of the West Philippine Basin. This information illuminates the complex plate interactions and provides a crucial contribution toward understanding the opening history of the basin and the Philippine Sea Plate.