• Title/Summary/Keyword: underestimation

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Risk Ranking for Tunnelling Construction Projects in Malaysia

  • Ghazali, F.E. Mohamed;Wong, H.C.
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2014
  • Tunnelling has become a preferred method of construction for road and highway projects in countries with a lot of hilly slope geological conditions such as found in Malaysia. However the construction works of a tunnelling project are usually complicated and costly, which consequently impose great risks to the parties involved. This paper identifies the key significant risks and sub-risks for tunnelling construction projects in Malaysia through a case study. Interview has been used as the solitary means to determine the significant risks from contractor's eleven key project personnel who were directly involved in the tunnelling construction such as consultant, construction manager and tunnel engineers. The importance of the risks identified is then prioritised and ranked via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)'s pairwise comparison approach to determine their criticality towards a successful delivery of project. As a result, three key risks have been identified as significant for the tunnelling case study project, namely health and safety, cost overrun in construction and time overrun in construction. Two sub-risks each of the latter categories, which are cost underestimation and unforeseen events (cost overrun in construction) as well as plant and machinery failure and delay in material delivery (time overrun in construction), have occupied the top five overall risk ranking.

재생냉각 연소실 설계 프로그램 개발 (Development of Design Program of Regeneratively Cooled Combustion Chamber)

  • 조원국;설우석
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.102-110
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    • 2004
  • 재생냉각 설계 프로그램을 개발하였으며 CFD 해석과 RTE 코드를 사용하여 결과를 검증하였다. 본 코드는 재생냉각 성능과 연소실 벽의 응력 예측을 주요 기능으로 하며 연소가스와 냉각유체의 열전달은 경험식을 사용하고 립의 핀효과는 이론 관계식을 이용하였다. 연소실 벽의 온도는 RTE 코드를 사용한 결과와 비교하여 최대 약 100 K 차이를 보였으며 열유속과 연소가스의 열전달 계수는 10 % 미만의 차이를 보였다. 벽온도의 차이는 핀효과의 과소평가에 기인한 것으로 판단된다.

Technique for Estimating the Number of Active Flows in High-Speed Networks

  • Yi, Sung-Won;Deng, Xidong;Kesidis, George;Das, Chita R.
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.194-204
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    • 2008
  • The online collection of coarse-grained traffic information, such as the total number of flows, is gaining in importance due to a wide range of applications, such as congestion control and network security. In this paper, we focus on an active queue management scheme called SRED since it estimates the number of active flows and uses the quantity to indicate the level of congestion. However, SRED has several limitations, such as instability in estimating the number of active flows and underestimation of active flows in the presence of non-responsive traffic. We present a Markov model to examine the capability of SRED in estimating the number of flows. We show how the SRED cache hit rate can be used to quantify the number of active flows. We then propose a modified SRED scheme, called hash-based two-level caching (HaTCh), which uses hashing and a two-level caching mechanism to accurately estimate the number of active flows under various workloads. Simulation results indicate that the proposed scheme provides a more accurate estimation of the number of active flows than SRED, stabilizes the estimation with respect to workload fluctuations, and prevents performance degradation by efficiently isolating non-responsive flows.

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변동경향을 보존하는 편의보정기법을 이용한 우리나라의 평균 및 극한기온 모의결과 보정 (Correction of Mean and Extreme Temperature Simulation over South Korea Using a Trend-preserving Bias Correction Method)

  • 정현채;서명석
    • 대기
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.205-219
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the simulation results of temperature by regional climate model (Reg- CM4) over South Korea were corrected by Hempel et al. (2013)'s method (Hempel method), and evaluated with the observation data of 50 stations from Korea Meteorological Administration. Among the 30 years (1981~2010) of simulation data, 20 years (1981~2000) of simulation data were used as a training data, and the remnant 10 years (2001~2010) data were used for the evaluation of correction. In general, the Hempel method and parametric quantile mapping show a reasonable correction both in mean and extreme climate of temperature. As the results, the systematic underestimation of mean temperature was greatly reduced after bias correction by Hempel method. And the overestimation of extreme climate, such as the number of TN5% and freezing day, was significantly recovered. In addition to that, the Hempel method better preserved the temporal trend of simulated temperature than other bias correction methods, such as the quantile mapping. However, the overcorrection of the extreme climate related to the upper quantile, such as TX5% and hot days, resulted in the exaggeration of the simulation errors. In general, the Hempel method can reduce the systematic biases embedded in the simulation results preserving the temporal trend but it tends to overcorrect the non-linear biases, in particular, extreme climate related to the upper percentile.

한반도 호우유형의 중규모 특성 및 예보 가이던스 (Mesoscale Features and Forecasting Guidance of Heavy Rain Types over the Korean Peninsula)

  • 김선영;송환진;이혜숙
    • 대기
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.463-480
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    • 2019
  • This study classified heavy rain types from K-means clustering for the hourly relationship between rainfall intensity and cloud top height over the Korean peninsula, and then examined their statistical characteristics for the period of June~August 2013~2018. Total rainfall amount of warm-type events was 2.65 times larger than that of the cold-type, whereas the lightning frequency divided by total rainfall for the warm-type was only 46% of the cold-type. Typical cold-type cases exhibited high cloud top height around 16 km, large reflectivity in the upper layer, and frequent lightning flashes under convectively unstable condition. Phenomenally, the cold-type cases corresponded to cloud cluster or multi-cell thunderstorms. However, two warm-type cases related to Changma and typhoon were characterized by heavy rainfall due to long duration, relatively low cloud top height and upper-level reflectivity, and the absence of lightning under the convectively neutral and extremely humid conditions. This study further confirmed that the forecast skill of rainfall could be improved by applying correction factor with the overestimation for cold-type and underestimation for warm-type cases in the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) operational model (e.g., BIAS score was improved by 5%).

평직복합재의 노치강도 및 피로특성에 미치는 보조원공의 영향 (Effects of defence holes on notched strength and fatigue properties in plain woven composite)

  • 김정규;심동석;한민규
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제21권11호
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    • pp.1965-1971
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    • 1997
  • The relaxation of stress concentration in notched members can be very significant in the improvement of notched strength and fatigue life. This paper investigated the relationship of stress concentration factor, and notched strength and fatigue life. The stress concentration factors were analyzed by FEM. Uniaxial tensile and fatigue tests were carried on plain woven composite specimens which have a main hole and two defence holes. From experimental results, the notched strength and the fatigue limit increased up to about 50% and 30% respectively due to the reduction in stress concentration. The fatigue lives predicted by Juvinall's approach were underestimated than test results and this trends were remarkable as nothed strength increased. This is because of the underestimation of a coefficient. A in S-N curve (.sigma.$_{ar}$ =A $N_{f}$ $^{B}$). Therefore, considering notched strength the coefficient A was modified. The fatigue lives by this process were agreed well with the experimental results.sults.

Effects of cyclic loading on the long-term deflection of prestressed concrete beams

  • Zhang, Lihai;Mendis, Priyan;Hon, Wong Chon;Fragomeni, Sam;Lam, Nelson;Song, Yilun
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.739-754
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    • 2013
  • Creep and shrinkage have pronounced effects on the long-term deflection of prestressed concrete members. Under repeated loading, the rate of creep in prestressed concrete members is often accelerated. In this paper, an iterative computational procedure based on the well known Model B3 for creep and shrinkage was developed to predict the time-dependent deflection of partially prestressed concrete members. The developed model was validated using the experimental observed deflection behavior of a simply supported partially prestressed concrete beam under repeated loading. The validated model was then employed to make predictions of the long-term deflection of the prestressed beams under a variety of conditions (e.g., water cement ratio, relatively humidity and time at drying). The simulation results demonstrate that ignoring creep and shrinkage could lead to significant underestimation of the long-term deflection of a prestressed concrete member. The model will prove useful in reducing the long-term deflection of the prestressed concrete members via the optimal selection of a concrete mix and prestressing forces.

Seismic response modification factors for stiffness degrading soil-structure systems

  • Ganjavi, Behnoud;Bararnia, Majid;Hajirasouliha, Iman
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제68권2호
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    • pp.159-170
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    • 2018
  • This paper aims to develop response modification factors for stiffness degrading structures by incorporating soil-structure interaction effects. A comprehensive parametric study is conducted to investigate the effects of key SSI parameters, natural period of vibration, ductility demand and hysteretic behavior on the response modification factor of soil-structure systems. The nonlinear dynamic response of 6300 soil-structure systems are studied under two ensembles of accelograms including 20 recorded and 7 synthetic ground motions. It is concluded that neglecting the stiffness degradation of structures can results in up to 22% underestimation of inelastic strength demands in soil-structure systems, leading to an unexpected high level of ductility demand in the structures located on soft soil. Nonlinear regression analyses are then performed to derive a simplified expression for estimating ductility-dependent response modification factors for stiffness degrading soil-structure systems. The adequacy of the proposed expression is investigated through sensitivity analyses on nonlinear soil-structure systems under seven synthetic spectrum compatible earthquake ground motions. A good agreement is observed between the results of the predicted and the target ductility demands, demonstrating the adequacy of the expression proposed in this study to estimate the inelastic demands of SSI systems with stiffness degrading structures. It is observed that the maximum differences between the target and average target ductility demands was 15%, which is considered acceptable for practical design purposes.

인터넷 트래픽 특성을 이용한 ATM 망의 최적설계에 관한 연구 (A Study on the optimization design of ATM network Using Internet Traffic Characteristics)

  • 최삼길;김동일
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.574-581
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    • 2002
  • 기존의 큐잉분석은 네트워크 용량설계 및 성능 예측시 상당히 유용하지만, 실제의 경우 큐잉 분석으로부터 예측된 결과는 실제 관측된 성능과는 상당히 다르다. 또한 LAM, WAN 및 VBR 트래픽 특성에 관한 최근의 실험적 연구들은 기존의 Poisson 가정에 의한 모델들이 네트워크 트래픽의 장기간 의존성 및 self-similar 특성을 과소평가 함으로써, 실제 트래픽의 특성을 제대로 나타낼 수 없다는 것을 지적해 왔다. 본 논문에서는 exactly self-similar 모델링인 Pareto-like ON/OFF 소스 모델링에 의한 트래픽과 기존의 Poisson 모델링에 의한 트래픽을 비교 분석함으로써, self-similar 트래픽이 실제의 Ethernet 트래픽 특성을 잘 반영한다는 것을 보임으로써 최적화된 ATM 네트워크 설계 및 성능분석을 이루고자 한다.

노인환자에서 Digoxin의 약동학적 매개변수 변화 (A Variation of Pharamcokinetic Parameters of Digoxin in Elderly Patients)

  • 배성미;양성희;황보신이;박창선;홍경자;장춘곤;이석용
    • 약학회지
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    • 제46권1호
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    • pp.30-38
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    • 2002
  • The elderly patients are the most frequent users of digoxin because of increased prevalence of the two primary indications for digoxin therapy, fibrillation (AE) and congestive heart failure (CHF). This study performed to observe a variation in digoxin pharamcokinetic parameters in advancing age and changing kidney function and to compare the measured clearance with the calculated clearance. The 123 drug monitoring records of inpatients who had achieved steady state concentration of digoxin at a tertiary hospital from April 1999 to October 2001 were reviewed. In advancing age, measured digoxin clearance, volume of distribution and creatinine clearance were reduced. Compared with the calculated digoxin clearance, the measured digoxin clearance was more reduced in patients without CHF Especially, in elderly patients without CHF the measured digoxin clearance was lower than the calculated digoxin clearance. In contrast to nonCHF patients the measured value was greater than the calculated value in all CHF patients. Findings from this study indicate that the calculated digoxin clearance in elderly patients without CHF substantially overestimated the true clearance. Thus, it appears that the use of calculated digoxin clearance to estimate serum digoxin concentration may result in underestimation of the true serum concentration in a number of elderly patients without CHF.