• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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Organizational Culture and Technological Innovation of SMEs in Daegu: The Moderating Effect of Job Stability and Environmental Uncertainty (대구지역 중소기업의 조직문화와 기술혁신: 고용안정성과 환경불확실성의 조절효과)

  • Im, Chae-Hyon;Shin, Jin-Kyo;Hwang, Su-Jung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.183-203
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    • 2012
  • This paper investigates how small-medium firms deploy organizational culture, job stability and environmental uncertainty for technological innovation(product and process innovation). This paper suggests that organizational culture has significant effects on technological innovation, that job stability and environmental uncertainty moderate relationship between organizational culture and technological innovation. To test the hypotheses, data were collected from small-medium firms. The survey data of 258 firms were collected and integrated as the empirical base for testing the hypotheses. Major results are as follows: Firstly, when organizational culture as well as control variables are considered, organizational culture had significant and positive effects on product innovation. This result implies that organizational culture is an important means by which small-medium firms can promote innovation. Secondly, the interaction between organizational culture and job stability had a positive and significant effects on product innovation. Thirdly, the interaction between organizational culture and environmental uncertainty had a positive and significant effects on product innovation and process innovation. This paper suggests implications and several future researches need to overcome the limitations of this paper.

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Estimation of Uncertainty in Critical Flow Function for Natural Gas (천연가스의 임계유동함수 불확도 평가)

  • Ha, Young-Cheol
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.38 no.7
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    • pp.625-638
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    • 2014
  • In this study, the uncertainties in the critical flow functions (CFFs) calculated by the AGA8-dc equation of state were estimated. To this end, the formulas for enthalpy, entropy, and speed of sound, which are used in calculating the CFF, were expressed in the form of dimensionless Helmholtz free energy and its derivatives, and the uncertainty in Helmholtz free energy was inferred. To consider the variations in the compressibility-dependent variables induced by the variation (i.e., uncertainty) in compressibility, the form of the AGA8-dc equation was modified to have a deviation equal to the uncertainty under each flow condition. For each independent uncertainty component of the CFF, a model for uncertainty contribution was developed. All these changes were applied to GASSOLVER, which is KOGAS's thermodynamic database. As a result, the uncertainties in the CFF were estimated to be 0.025, 0.055, and 0.112 % at 10, 50, and 100 bar, respectively, and are seen to increase with the increase in pressure. Furthermore, these results could explain the deviations in the CFFs across the different labs in which the CFF international comparison test was conducted under the ISO management in 1999.

Uncertainty Analysis based on LENS-GRM

  • Lee, Sang Hyup;Seong, Yeon Jeong;Park, KiDoo;Jung, Young Hun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.208-208
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the frequency of abnormal weather due to complex factors such as global warming is increasing frequently. From the past rainfall patterns, it is evident that climate change is causing irregular rainfall patterns. This phenomenon causes difficulty in predicting rainfall and makes it difficult to prevent and cope with natural disasters, casuing human and property damages. Therefore, accurate rainfall estimation and rainfall occurrence time prediction could be one of the ways to prevent and mitigate damage caused by flood and drought disasters. However, rainfall prediction has a lot of uncertainty, so it is necessary to understand and reduce this uncertainty. In addition, when accurate rainfall prediction is applied to the rainfall-runoff model, the accuracy of the runoff prediction can be improved. In this regard, this study aims to increase the reliability of rainfall prediction by analyzing the uncertainty of the Korean rainfall ensemble prediction data and the outflow analysis model using the Limited Area ENsemble (LENS) and the Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) models. First, the possibility of improving rainfall prediction ability is reviewed using the QM (Quantile Mapping) technique among the bias correction techniques. Then, the GRM parameter calibration was performed twice, and the likelihood-parameter applicability evaluation and uncertainty analysis were performed using R2, NSE, PBIAS, and Log-normal. The rainfall prediction data were applied to the rainfall-runoff model and evaluated before and after calibration. It is expected that more reliable flood prediction will be possible by reducing uncertainty in rainfall ensemble data when applying to the runoff model in selecting behavioral models for user uncertainty analysis. Also, it can be used as a basis of flood prediction research by integrating other parameters such as geological characteristics and rainfall events.

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Information Management by Data Quantification with FuzzyEntropy and Similarity Measure

  • Siang, Chua Hong;Lee, Sanghyuk
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2013
  • Data management with fuzzy entropy and similarity measure were discussed and verified by applying reliable data selection problem. Calculation of certainty or uncertainty for data, fuzzy entropy and similarity measure are designed and proved. Proposed fuzzy entropy and similarity are considered as dissimilarity measure and similarity measure, and the relation between two measures are explained through graphical illustration.Obtained measures are useful to the application of decision theory and mutual information analysis problem. Extension of data quantification results based on the proposed measures are applicable to the decision making and fuzzy game theory.

Information Quantification Application to Management with Fuzzy Entropy and Similarity Measure

  • Wang, Hong-Mei;Lee, Sang-Hyuk
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.275-280
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    • 2010
  • Verification of efficiency in data management fuzzy entropy and similarity measure were discussed and verified by applying reliable data selection problem and numerical data similarity evaluation. In order to calculate the certainty or uncertainty fuzzy entropy and similarity measure are designed and proved. Designed fuzzy entropy and similarity are considered as dissimilarity measure and similarity measure, and the relation between two measures are explained through graphical illustration. Obtained measures are useful to the application of decision theory and mutual information analysis problem. Extension of data quantification results based on the proposed measures are applicable to the decision making and fuzzy game theory.

INVESTMENT EVALUATION OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUTURE PROJECTS USING BINOMIAL REAL OPTION MODEL

  • Qiyu Qian;Xueqing Wang;Charles Y.J. Cheah
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2007.03a
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    • pp.563-572
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    • 2007
  • Transportation infrastructure is critical to economic growth of a country such as China. Careful evaluation of investments in traffic infrastructure projects is therefore pertinent. As traditional evaluation methods do not consider the uncertainty of future cash flows and mobility during project execution, the real option approach is gradually gaining recognition in the context of valuing construction and infrastructure projects. However, many of the cases only evaluate individual options separately although multiple options often exist in a typical large infrastructure project. Using a highway project in China as a case study, this paper first evaluates a deferment option and a growth option embedded in the project. Subsequently, the values are combined using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. It is found that the combined value is less than the sum of the two option values. This finding is consistent with the theoretical observations given in past real option literature despite the use of a different approach.

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Water Quality Management Strategies Evaluation of Juam Lake by A Fuzzy Decision-Making Method (퍼지 의사결정법에 의한 주암호 수질관리 전략 평가)

  • Lee, Yong Woon;Hwang, Yun Ae;Lee, Sung Woo;Lee, Byong Hi;Choi, Jung Wook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.699-712
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    • 2000
  • Juam lake is a major water resource for the industrial and agricultural activities as well as the resident life of Kwangju and Chonnam regions. However, the water quality of the lake is getting worse due to a large quantity of pollutant inflowing to the lake. Thus, the strategy for achieving the water quality goal of the lake should be developed as soon as possible. When there are various alternatives that can be used as the strategy, several criteria based on the achievement degree of water quality goal, the applicability of technique and social environment, and the reasonableness of the cost required are made to evaluate and rank the alternatives. However, it is difficult to make a decision when there are multiple criteria and conflicting objectives and specifically the estimated values of criteria contain elements of uncertainty. The uncertainty stems from the lack of available information, the randomness of future situation, and the incomplete knowledge of expert. As the degree of uncertainty is higher, the decision becomes more difficult. In this study, a fuzzy decision-making method is presented to assist decision makers in evaluating various alternatives under uncertainty. The method allows decision makers to characterize the associated uncertainty by applying fuzzy theory and incorporate the uncertainty directly into the decision making process for selecting the "best" alternative so decisions can be made that are more appropriate and realistic than those made without taking uncertainty in account.

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The Effects of Comprehensive Education Program on Anxiety, Uncertainty and Athletic Performance of Patients undergo Spinal Nerve Block (척추 신경차단술 환자를 위한 포괄적 교육 프로그램이 불안, 불확실성 및 운동수행에 미치는 효과)

  • Kim, Seon Hee;Lee, Eun Sook
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.143-153
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Purpose of the study was to identify the effect of the Comprehensive Education Program (CEP) on intra-procedure anxiety, post-procedure uncertainty and athletic performance of back strengthening of patients undergo spinal nerve block (SNB). Methods: The participants (experimental group=33, control group=33) were recruited from a university hospital in G metropolitan city. Data were collected from July to November 2015. The experimental group was individually provided with a booklet/motion picture about the SNB and back strengthening exercise training before the SNB. This group also received a leaflet about back strengthening exercise post SNB. The Anxiety-Visual Analog Scale (A-VAS), the Mishel adapted uncertainty scale and newly created knowledge scale/athletic performance checklist were utilized as our study tools. Results: Intra-procedure anxiety score (F=25.70, p<.001), post-procedure uncertainty score (F=82.56, p<.001), post-procedure knowledge score (F=14.63, p<.001) and athletic performance rate of back strengthening (p=.003) of the experimental group showed statistically significant differences in comparison with the control group. Conclusion: This CEP is a cost and time-effective intervention for patients who undergo spinal injections, so it should be actively utilized as an educational management strategy in outpatient.

Application of Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis in Life Cycle Assessment -Part I : A General Framework for Uncertainty and Variability Analysis of Health Risk in Life Cycle Assessment (전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 건강영향분석기법 적용 -Part I : 전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 위해도 분석기법 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kwang-Soo;Park, Jae-Sung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2000
  • Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

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