• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.21-32
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• 1991

The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability model for slope stability of Earth-rockfill dams which accounts for all uncertainties encountered. The uncertain factors of the design variables include the cohesion, the angle of internal friction, and the porewater Pressure in each zone. More specifically, the model errors in estimating those variables are studied in depth. To reduce the uncertainties due to model errors, updated design variables are obtained using Bayesian Theory. For stability analysis, both the two-dimesional stability analysis and the three-dimensional stability analysis where the end effects and the system reliability concept are considered are used for the reliability calculations. The deterministic safety factor by the three-dimensional analysis is lager than that by the two-dimensional anlysis. However, the probability of failure by the three-dimensional analysis is about 3.5 times larger that by the two-dimensional analysis. It is because the system reliability concept is used in the three-dimensional analysis. The sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the cohesion than that of the angle of internal friction.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.23-35
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• 2016

Firms should seek greater profits and corporate growth through new businesses. New businesses contribute realizing creative economy that creates good jobs, and expanding the company by securing new markets and creating new profits and growth. However, new business is risky management decision-making to have a high failure rate because it involves the adaptation of new business environment and the burden of new investments, including the uncertainty of success in business. Therefore, innovation strategies play important roles for the new business entry, using product innovation, process innovation, business model innovation, disruptive innovation, and strategic innovation, etc. and company will get huge economic results by pushing them into successful business. It is essential that innovation strategy and IT development strategy along with business strategy of a firm are linked, and their strategic alignment is considered to be a critical success factor for new business success. Hyundai Heavy Industries(HHI) pursued marine engine business for the development of precision machinery industry and shipbuilding industry of Korea, and the company recognized the importance of new business strategy, innovation strategy, and IT strategy inter-linked, and pushed strategic alignment boldly. As a result, HHI won the competition in European and Japanese engine manufacturers and climbed into the world's largest engine manufacturer. This study suggests investigating and analyzing a case that HHI succeeded in marine engine business expansion using strategic innovation strategy as a way of the introduction of CNC machine tools and the development of HEMAPT system.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.225-237
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• 2018

The difficulties of satellite vibration testing are due to the commonly expressed qualification requirements being incompatible with the limited performance of the entire controlled system (satellite + interface + shaker + controller). Two features cause the problem: firstly, the main satellite modes (i.e., the first structural mode and the high and low tank modes) are very weakly damped; secondly, the controller is just too basic to achieve the expected performance in such cases. The combination of these two issues results in oscillations around the notching levels and high amplitude beating immediately after the mode. The beating overshoots are a major risk source because they can result in the test being aborted if the qualification upper limit is exceeded. Although the abort is, in itself, a safety measure protecting the tested satellite, it increases the risk of structural fatigue, firstly because the abort threshold has been already reached, and secondly, because the test must restart at the same close-resonance frequency and remain there until the qualification level is reached and the sweep frequency can continue. The beat minimum relates only to small successive frequency ranges in which the qualification level is not reached. Although they are less problematic because they do not cause an inadvertent test shutdown, such situations inevitably result in waiver requests from the client. A controlled-system analysis indicates an operating principle that cannot provide sufficient stability: the drive calculation (which controls the process) simply multiplies the frequency reference (usually called cola) and a function of the following setpoint, the ratio between the amplitude already reached and the previous setpoint, and the compression factor. This function value changes at each cola interval, but it never takes into account the sensor signal phase. Because of these limitations, we firstly examined whether it was possible to empirically determine, using a series of tests with a very simple dummy, a controller setting process that significantly improves the results. As the attempt failed, we have performed simulations seeking an optimum adjustment by finding the Least Mean Square of the difference between the reference and response signal. The simulations showed a significant improvement during the notch beat and a small reduction in the beat amplitude. However, the small improvement in this process was not useful because it highlighted the need to change the reference at each cola interval, sometimes with instructions almost twice the qualification level. Another uncertainty regarding the consequences of such an approach involves the impact of differences between the estimated model (used in the simulation) and the actual system. As limitations in the current controller were identified in different approaches, we considered the feasibility of a new controller that takes into account an estimated single-input multi-output (SIMO) model. Its parameters were estimated from a very low-level throughput. Against this backdrop, we analyzed the feasibility of an LQG control in cancelling beating, and this article highlights the relevance of such an approach.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.55-63
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• 2002

It has been known well that Traffic Conflict Technique(TCT) used to evaluate the safety of intersections in the case of shortage of traffic accidents data and surveying time. Because data for using in traffic conflict technique that is collected by trained surveyors, it is rely on the knowledge, experience and the characteristics of them. The data of surveying generate varying result. So, its variance must minimize and then it is considered of calculating in traffic conflict technique however obviously technique to minimize has not developed until now. So, this paper has a focus on the technical method to minimize the variance. For this, it applied the fuzzy reasoning theory to the existed traffic conflict technique that is the most comprehensive method in the country and then developed the new traffic conflict technique model. Fuzzy reasoning theory is a very appropriate method for minimizing the variance among surveyors because it can systematically calculate the uncertainty of surveyors by approximation reasoning structure. The result of analysis from pilot study, the new Procedure in this Paper minimized the variance by 53 Percentiles and it increased the value of conversion factor two times than the exited traffic conflict technique. The method proposed in this paper, it can be used for evaluating the safety of intersection, and before and after analysis of improving Project of black spots.

• Environmental Mutagens and Carcinogens
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.187-198
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• 2002

Chlorpyrifos is an organophosphate insecticide and one of the most commonly and widely used insecticide. However, a little known about the dermal risk of chlorpyrifos on human being. Therefore, this study was conducted for the dermal risk assessment after exposure to chlorpyrifos in Korean farmers. First, skin irritation by chlorpyrifos (10 mg/$\textrm{cm}^2$, 50 mg/$\textrm{cm}^2$, 100 mg/$\textrm{cm}^2$, 250 mg/$\textrm{cm}^2$ in acetone) was determined in rabbits for 5 days considering the usage of chlorpyrifos short term highly exposure. The index of skin irritation by chlorpyrifos was increased in each dose and length of exposure dependent manners. Next, using benchmark dose (BMD$_{5}$) approach, the dose-response relationship was assessed to calculate the reference dose (RfD). The value of RfD was 2.84 $\mu\textrm{g}$/kg/day from 142.16 $\mu\textrm{g}$/kg/day BMD5 value divided uncertainty factor 50. Finally, we assessed human dermal risk of chlorpyrifos with exposure level and RfD. Skin absorbed levels were assumed with several exposure scenarios encounting the circumstances of exposure that application method, protection equipment and cloth, exposure time and exposure frequency during chlorpyrifos spraying. By the comparison of skin absorbed dose with the reference dose, it was identified that risk values (risk index) to skin chlorpyrifos exposure were 0.958 from the point of above results and it was recommended that the occurrence of hazard effect (skin irritation toxicity) of chlorpyrifos would not be expected. Risk index was smaller than 1 in the case of spraying vehicle mounted application, 1hour exposure time and wearing protective cloth exposure. Whereas, risk index was above 1 in the case of hand-held application, 2hour exposure time and wearing common cloth. Comparing two kinds of application method, total risk index of the hand held application (1.67) was higher than vehicle mounted (0.27). Therefore, chlorpyrifos skin exposure was mainly affected by application equipment and applied form. The results of risk assessment on the human dermal toxicity of chlorpyrifos should be required to control in keeping safety rules, skin surface area available for contact, spraying time ,and spraying frequency.y.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.81-88
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• 2009

Two dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations of a non-reactive solute plume in isotropic porous media which are physically and chemically heterogeneous are conducted to determine the variations of moment. Retardation factors of 1, 2 and 5 are given to ascertain how the second moments are changed as adsorption increased. Retarded longitudinal second spatial moment, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$, increased during the transport process and as the dimensionless lengths of line plume source, $l_2'$, increased. ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$ decreased as the retardation factors increased, and the simulated moments fit well to the first-order analytical results. Retarded longitudinal plume centroid variance, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t',l')$, decreased as the dimensionless lengths of line plume source, $l_2'$, increased and as the retardation factor increased. The result indicates that the uncertainty about the plume center decreased, and the ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching. Simulated longitudinal one particle displacement covariance, ${Z_{11}}^{'R}(t')$, well consistent with the first-order analytical results for the three degrees of retardation factors of 1, 2 and 5 respectively. It is, consequently, concluded that the retarded longitudinal second moments could be produced by stochastic simulation, and that the first-order analytical results definitely provides very close values of the longitudinal retarded moments.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-17
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• 2010

IT Systems based on Global Single Instance (GSI) can manage a corporation's internal information, resources and assets effectively and raise business efficiency through consolidation of their business process and productivity. But, It has also dangerous factor that IT system fault failure can cause a state of paralysis of a business itself, followed by huge loss of money. Many of studies have been conducted about fault-tolerance based on using redundant component. The concept of fault tolerance is rather simple but, designing and adopting fault-tolerance system is not easy due to uncertainty of a type and frequency of faults. So, Operational fault management that working after developed IT system is important more and more along with technical fault management. This study proposes the fault management process that including a pre-estimation method using TRM (Technical Reference Model) check point and event rule engine. And also proposes a effect of fault-free process through built fault management system to representative company of Hi-tech industry. After adopting fault-free process, a number of failure decreased by 46%, a failure time decreased by 56% and the Opportunity loss costs decreased by 77%.

• Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.170-181
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• 2011

Purpose: There is considerable variability in rates of hospitalization for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in part because of physicians' uncertainty in assessing the severity of illness at presentation. The purpose of the study was to examine the current treatment patterns and factors influencing the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and clinical outcomes in the patient with CAP. Method: The retrospective data collection of the patients with CAP was conducted and the data were reviewed. The collected data included demographic, clinical, laboratory and microbiological medical information. All patients were stratified into three risk groups according to PSI: low risk (PSI score I-II), moderate risk (III) and high risk (IV-V) groups. The examined treatment patterns were the appropriateness of admissions, category of antibiotics used. The prognostic factors associated with PSI and clinical outcomes were examined. Results: One hundred and six patients' medical data were reviewed. The overall appropriateness of admissions was low presenting many of patients were admitted or intensely treated in the hospital despite of lower risk of prognosis and treated with intravenous antibiotics instead of oral fluoroquinolones. Primary pneumonia pathogens were Klebsiella pneumoniae (27%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (21.6%). Mean LOS was 8.5 days and was significantly longer (10.0days) (p<0.001) in high risk group. The patients with age >65 (p<0.001), diabetes mellitus (p<0.001), mental alteration (p<0.001), and/or $PaO_2$ <60 mmHg (p<0.001) had a tendency to have higher PSI. The prognostic factors associated with longer LOS were age >65 years (p=0.008), mental status alteration (p<0.001), dyspnea (p=0.002) and PSI score (p=0.001). The prognostic factors associated with mortality were congestive heart failure (p=0.038), systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg (p=0.002) and arterial pH <7.35 (p=0.013). Conclusion: Most of patients were found to over-utilize medical service according to appropriateness of admissions. The elderly, mentally altered patients with low $PaO_2$ had higher PSI score with increased risk of LOS. The mortality could be increased in the patient with disease state of congestive heart failure, high blood pressure, and/or acidosis.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.37-52
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• 2011

Supply chain management is a strategic thinking which enhances the value of supply chain and adapts more promptly for the changing environment. For the seamless partnership and value creation in supply chains, information and knowledge sharing and proper partner selection criteria must be applied. Thus, the partner selection criteria are critical to maintain product quality and reliability. Each part of a product is supplied by an appropriate supply partner. The criteria for selecting partners are technological capability, quality, price, consistency, etc. In reality, the criteria for partner selection may change according to the characteristics of the components. When the part is a core component, quality factor is the top priority compared to the price. For a standardized component, lower price has a higher priority. Sometimes, unexpected case occurs such as emergency order in which the preference may shift on the top. Thus, SCM partner selection criteria must be determined dynamically according to the characteristics of part and its context. The purpose of this research is to develop an OWL model for the supply chain partnership depending on its context and characteristics of the parts. The uncertainty of variable is tackled through fuzzy logic. The parts with preference of numerical value and context are represented using OWL. Part preference is converted into fuzzy membership function using fuzzy logic. For the ontology reasoning, SWRL (Semantic Web Rule Language) is applied. For the implementation of proposed model, starter motor of an automobile is adopted. After the fuzzy ontology is constructed, the process of selecting preference-based supply partner for each part is presented.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.421-436
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• 2016

Public-Private-Partnerships tend to be committed high project development cost and recover the cost through future revenue during the operation period. In general, long-term concession can bring on more revenue to private investors, but short-term concession less revenue due to the short recovering opportunities. The concession period is usually determined by government in advance or by the private sectors's proposal although it is a very crucial factor for the PPPs. Accurate traffic forecasting should be most important in planing and evaluating the operation period in that the forecasted traffic determines the project revenue with user fees in PPPs. In this regards, governments and the private investors are required to consider the traffic forecast risk when determining concession period. This study proposed a model for the optimal concession period in the PPPs transportation projects. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to find out the optimal concession period while traffic forecast uncertainty is considered as a project risk under the expected return of the private sector. The simulation results showed that the optimal concession periods are 17 years and 21 years at 5.5% and 7% discount level, respectively. This study result can be applied for the private investors and/or any other concerned decision makers for PPPs projects to set up a more resonable concession period.