• 제목/요약/키워드: uncertainty factor

검색결과 625건 처리시간 0.032초

퍼지 기법을 이용한 소음 저감 원천기술의 기술가치 산정에 관한 연구 (A Study on Valuation of Micro-pressure Wave Reduction Technology Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation)

  • 원유경;김동진
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제17권10호
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    • pp.231-240
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    • 2017
  • 기술의 가치는 다양한 방법에 의해서 평가되어 지지만, 평가자의 주관과 평가 기법에 따라 상이한 결과를 초래하게 된다. 또한 평가 시 고려해야 할 요인 및 적용모형에 따라 결과의 불확실성이 생기게 되며, 특히 자료의 부족 또는 비교 대상이 없는 경우에는 평가 기술에 대한 가치 산정 결과의 신뢰성에 문제가 생길 수 있다. 이러한 평가 상의 불확실성을 감소시키기 위해 본 연구에서는 요인들에 대해 숫자(점수)로 평가하던 기존의 방식 대신 5가지 언어표현(아주 높음, 높음, 보통, 낮음, 아주 낮음)을 이용하는 퍼지 이론 및 이를 정량화 시킬 수 있는 퍼지 포괄 기법을 적용하여 특정 기술의 기술력을 측정하였다. 이를 위하여 국내에서 개발 중인 소음 저감 원천기술을 사례로 하여 기술성 요인과 사업성 요인으로 분류하고 기술의 가치를 평가 하였다. 기술성 요인은 높음, 사업성 요인은 아주 높음으로 평가되었으며, 이 요인들을 고려한 종합 평가에서는 아주 높음으로 평가되었다. 또한, 이는 각 요인별(세부요인, 대요인) 기술의 가치를 계량적으로 평가 할 수 있어 경쟁기술과의 요인별 비교에 도움이 될 것이다. 본 연구의 기법을 적용하면 다양한 분야에서 신규 기술(콘텐츠) 또는 대체 개발 기술(콘텐츠)과 같이 비교 자료가 부족한 경우에 기술력 분석 시 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

정시중단 가속수명시험에서 고장률과 가속계수의 추정 (Estimation of Failure Rate and Acceleration Factor in Accelerated Life Testing under Type-I Censoring)

  • 공명복;박일광
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.145-149
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    • 2003
  • We consider the estimation of failure rate and acceleration factor under type-I censoring without using acceleration model when testing is conducted in only one highly accelerated condition. Failure times of an item are assumed to be exponentially distributed. It is also assumed that the uncertainty about the acceleration factor, the failure time contraction ratio between accelerated condition and use condition, can be modeled by the uniform or gamma prior distribution of appropriate parameters. We respectively use Bayes and maximum likelihood approaches to estimate acceleration factor and failure rate in the use condition. An example is given to show how the method can be applied.

RFID Implementation Readiness Model : Impact of Technology, Human, Vender, and Task Factors

  • Lim, Se-Hun
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.71-87
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    • 2011
  • Currently, many companies are interested in (Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). Nonetheless, technical imperfection and the uncertainty of Return on Investment (ROD is discouraging the companies' intention to implement RFID. Accordingly, while a number of companies concede the efficiency of RFID, few of them expresses enthusiasm, making a rain check to adopt RFID. Moreover, the recent economic depression has down-sized the companies' investment on Information Technology (IT), subsequently hindering RFID implementation. In adopting RFID, the collaboration of supply chain is the most importance factor. Therefore, in implementing RFID, many companies reinforced collaboration of supply chain. Therefore, this study will focus on performing an analysis on several factors which influence the intention to adoption of RFID, such as the human factor, technology factor, vender factor and task factor. The results of this study will provide useful guidelines for RFID adoption strategy to Korean companies.

PL 리더십 성향과 프로젝트 특성요인이 프로젝트 참여 만족 및 성과에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of PL Leadership and Characteristics of Project on Project Participants' Satisfaction and Performance)

  • 양희동;김명진;강소라
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.53-79
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    • 2010
  • The study was originated from recognition that project participants' satisfaction should be Improved to raise project performance and to make progress of a successful project since the above dissatisfaction was operated as a danger factor of the project. The study selected one large-scale sample project and attempted measuring characteristics of the project, participants' satisfaction and project performance with the whole project participants. The study analyzed correlations between individual level (team members) and group level (development team), and examined what effect a sub project manager under complicated hierarchical organization of the large-scale project, namely PL (project leader)'s leadership style had on each individual project participant's satisfaction and what effect project uncertainty in organization/technology environment had on project participants' satisfaction and project performance. The study verified that development team (group) had an effect on team member (individual)-level project participants' satisfaction by disclosing that there was a significant dispersion among groups within project participants' satisfaction by each individual. It is analyzed that it is necessary to make improvement through approach by each pertinent team to raise individual-level project participants' satisfaction. The study also verified PL's ideal leadership under strict methodology and hierarchical control of the large-scale project. Based on the verification of the hypotheses, the results of the analysis were produced as follows. First, the development team affects the satisfaction level that an individual has when he/she participates in a project. This suggests that the satisfaction with project participation should be improved at the team level. In addition, the project management style and leadership orientation of the manager of a sub project who is mostly affected by the team proved to have a direct influence on the satisfaction with project participation and project performances. Second, both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership of the PL of the development team were verified to have a significant effect on the satisfaction of the team members associated with project participation. In other words, when the team members recognize that the PL of the development team shows both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership, their satisfaction with project participation increases accordingly. Third, it was verified that the uncertainty of the organizational environment significantly affects the satisfaction level when the PL of the development team exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership. The higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the relationship-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the performance-oriented leadership style. Fourth, when the PL of the development team exerts the relationship-related and performance-related leadership, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant influence on the satisfaction level. The higher the uncertainty of the technological environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the performance-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the relationship-oriented leadership style. The result of the research on the uncertainty of the project environment suggests that when the development team leader exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the organizational environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment, the more the satisfaction level decreases, and the relationship-oriented leadership style affects the satisfaction level more positively than the performance-oriented leadership style. In addition, when the development team leader displays a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the technological environment. the more the satisfaction level decreases. The performance-oriented leadership style as well affects the satisfaction level more positively than the relationship-oriented leadership style. Based on the above results, the research provides the following implications when handling multiple concurrent projects. First, the satisfaction with the participation in the multiple concurrent projects needs to be enhanced at the team (group) level. Second. the manager of the project team, particularly the middle managers should have both a performance-oriented and relationship (task and human)-oriented attitude and exert a consolidated leadership in order to improve the satisfaction of team members with project participation and their performances. Third, as the uncertainty factor of the technological and organizational environment among the characteristics factors of the project has room for methodological improvement depending on one's effort even though there are some complications, we need to continuously prevent and control the risks resulting from the uncertainties of the technological and organizational environment of the project in order to enhance the satisfaction of project participation and project performances. Fourth, the performance (task)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in a technological environment while the relationship (human)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in an organizational environment. This research has the following limitations. First, this research intended to select one large-sized sample project and measure the project characteristics, the satisfaction of all the participants associated with project participation, and their performances. Therefore, it is inappropriate to generalize and apply the result of this result onto other numerous projects. Second, as this case study entailed a survey to measure the characteristics factors and performance of the project, since the result value was based on the perception of project team members, the data may have insufficient objectivity. Third, though this research targeted on all the project participants, some development teams did not provide sufficient data and questionnaires were collected from some specific development teams among the 23 development teams, causing a significant deviation in the response rate among the development teams. Therefore, we need to continuously conduct the follow-up researches making comparisons among the multiple projects, and centering on the characteristics factors of the project and its satisfaction level.

중소 공급업체의 SCM역량요인이 운영성과에 미치는 영향: 수요불확실성의 조절효과를 중심으로 (Effect SCM Capacity Factor of Small and Medium-Sized Supplier on Operational Performance: Focused on Moderating Effect of Demand Uncertainty)

  • 김정대
    • 벤처창업연구
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    • 제12권5호
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2017
  • 일자리 창출과 국가산업경쟁력 측면에서 중소기업의 중요성이 강조되고 있다. 글로벌 환경의 불확실성과 공급사슬 간 경쟁으로의 패러다임의 변환은 공급사슬 내 중소 공급업체의 역량에 더욱 관심이 집중되고 있다. 이러한 점에서, 공급사슬상의 구매자-공급자 관계에서 중소공급업체의 SCM(공급사슬관리) 역량이 중소공급업체의 운영성과에 미치는 영향을 실증 분석하였다. 또한 환경적 요소로서 수요불확실성이 이러한 관계에 어떤 조절효과를 미칠 수 있는지 살펴보았다. 이러한 목적을 달성하기 위해 전기 전자, 금속 기계, 자동차 등의 산업에 속한 중소공급업체를 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였으며, 구조방정식 모형을 이용하여 관련 연구가설을 검정하였다. 연구결과, 중소 공급업체의 공급사슬역량인 관계자본은 운영성과에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나고, 조정역량은 운영성과에 유의한 영향이 나타나지 않았다. 수요 불확실성의 조절효과를 살펴보면, 관계자본 역량과 운영성과 간에는 수요불확실성의 정(+)적인 조절효과가 나타난 반면, 조정역량과 운영성과 간에는 유의한 조절효과가 나타나지 않는다. 이러한 결과는 관계자본 역량은 운영성과에 긍정적인 영향을 미치며, 수요불확실성의 상황에서도 운영성과를 제고시키는 역할을 하고 있는 것을 알 수 있다. 반면에 조정역량의 경우, 구매기업과의 핵심 비즈니스 프로세스를 통합할 수 있는 정보공유, 커뮤니케이션 등의 외부적 조정역량을 향상시킬 수 있는 프로세스의 강화와 더불어 공급사슬관련 업무를 효과적으로 수행할 수 있는 중소공급업체 내부 관련부서들 간의 조정이 뒷받침되어야 한다는 점을 시사한다.

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특수일사계를 이용한 맑은 날 일사량의 온도 보정 (Temperature Correction of Solar Radiation on Clear Sky Using by Modified Pyranometer)

  • 조일성;정명재;이규태;지준범;김부요
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2015
  • Pyranometer have many uncertainty factors (sensitivity function, thermal offset, other spectral effect, geometric, environment, and equipment etc.) than pyrheliometer. The solution for most of the uncertainty factors have been researched, but the problem for thermal offset is being continued research so far. Under the clear sky, due to the thermal offset of pyranometer, the diffuse and global radiation have been negative value for the nighttime and lower value for the daytime, respectively. In order to understand the uncertainty of the thermal offset effect, solar radiation are observed and analyzed using Ji and Tsay method and data from modified pyranometer. As a result of performing temperature correction using the modified pyranometer, the slope (dome factor; k) and intercept ($r_0$) from a linear regression method are 0.064 and $3.457g{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}k^{-1}$, respectively. And the solar radiation is decreased significantly due to the effect of thermal offset during nighttime. The solar radiation from modified pyranometer increased approximately 8% higher than its observed by general pyranometer during daytime. By the way, these results did not generalize because its result is for only single case in clear sky. Accordingly, it is to required for accurate results obtained by the various cases (clear, cloudy and rainy) with longterm observations.

An Improved Analytic Model for Power System Fault Diagnosis and its Optimal Solution Calculation

  • Wang, Shoupeng;Zhao, Dongmei
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2018
  • When a fault occurs in a power system, the existing analytic models for the power system fault diagnosis could generate multiple solutions under the condition of one or more protective relays (PRs) and/or circuit breakers (CBs) malfunctioning, and/or an alarm or alarms of these PRs and/or CBs failing. Therefore, this paper presents an improved analytic model addressing the above problem. It takes into account the interaction between the uncertainty involved with PR operation and CB tripping and the uncertainty of the alarm reception, which makes the analytic model more reasonable. In addition, the existing analytic models apply the penalty function method to deal with constraints, which is influenced by the artificial setting of the penalty factor. In order to avoid the penalty factor's effects, this paper transforms constraints into an objective function, and then puts forward an improved immune clonal multi-objective optimization algorithm to solve the optimal solution. Finally, the cases of the power system fault diagnosis are served for demonstrating the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed model and method.

Probabilistic stability analysis of rock slopes with cracks

  • Zhu, J.Q.;Yang, X.L.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2018
  • To evaluate the stability of a rock slope with one pre-exiting vertical crack, this paper performs corresponding probabilistic stability analysis. The existence of cracks is generally ignored in traditional deterministic stability analysis. However, they are widely found in either cohesive soil or rock slopes. The influence of one pre-exiting vertical crack on a rock slope is considered in this study. The safety factor, which is usually adopted to quantity the stability of slopes, is derived through the deterministic computation based on the strength reduction technique. The generalized Hoek-Brown (HB) failure criterion is adopted to characterize the failure of rock masses. Considering high nonlinearity of the limit state function as using nonlinear HB criterion, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to accurately approximate the implicit limit state function of a rock slope. Then the MARS is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation to implement reliability analysis, and the influences of distribution types, level of uncertainty, and constants on the probability density functions and failure probability are discussed. It is found that distribution types of random variables have little influence on reliability results. The reliability results are affected by a combination of the uncertainty level and the constants. Finally, a reliability-based design figure is provided to evaluate the safety factor of a slope required for a target failure probability.

The Influence of Origin Regulations on the FTA Utilization and Export Performance of Automobile Parts Companies

  • Se-Hyun Park
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제26권8호
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    • pp.58-76
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study examined the Rules of Origin (RoO) as a factor affecting free trade agreements' (FTA) utilization and analyzed the causal relationship and the effects of these factors on the export performance of automobile parts companies. Design/methodology - We analyzed and verified the impact of FTA utilization and the export performance of automobile parts companies by dividing the characteristics of the RoO into complexity and uncertainty. Following which, various statistical analyses were conducted on the interrelationships among these variables. Findings - This research analyzed the effect of the RoO factors of complexity and uncertainty on the use of FTA and the export performance of automobile parts companies. We found that these characteristics of RoO were generally related to and affected the FTA use and export performance of these companies. Based on this, this study's investigation into the characteristics of the RoO would then help companies in better utilizing the FTA, as well as providing suggestions on how to effectively respond to the application of the FTA in the future. Originality/value - Companies that want to utilize FTAs in international trade must follow the RoO. In the Regional Trade Agreement (RTA), the country-of-origin is a key factor, with the RoO being an important requirement for the application of preferential tariffs. These regulations are a requirement for receiving FTA preferential treatment; however, they also cause difficulties to companies in using the FTA.

다차원적 종교성/영성척도 단축형 한국어판의 타당화 (Validation of the Korean Version of Brief Multidimensional Measure of Religiousness/Spirituality Scale)

  • 윤혜영;김근향
    • 한국융합학회논문지
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    • 제6권5호
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    • pp.257-274
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구는 Fetzer/NIA(1999)에서 개발한 다차원적 종교성/영성 척도-단축형(Brief-Multidimensional Measure of Religiousness/Spirituality Scale; BMMRS)의 신뢰도와 타당도를 평가하기 위해서 실시되었다. 대학생, 대학원생과 종교를 믿는 일반 성인 286명을 대상으로 BMMRS 영적 웰빙척도(Spiritual Well-Being Scale, SWS), 한국판 영성 척도(Korean Sprituality Scale, KSS), 펜실베니아 걱정질문지(Penn State Worry Questionnaire, PSWQ), 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족 척도(Intolerance of uncertainty Scale, (IUS)를 실시하였다. BMMRS의 요인구조를 주축분해법, 사각 회전으로 분석한 결과, 기존 연구에서 제안되었던 긍정적 영적 경험, 부정적 영적 경험, 용서, 종교활동, 긍정적인 종교지지, 부정적인 종교지지 6요인 구조가 확인되었고 확인적 요인분석 결과 모형 적합도도 만족할 만한 수준이었다. 각 소척도의 내적일관성(.64~.97)과 검사-재검사 신뢰도(.72~.88) 역시 적절하였다. 이 결과는 한국판 BMMRS가 적절한 심리 측정적 지표를 나타내고 있음을 보여주고 있으며, 이에 향후 영성과 종교성 및 정신건강의 관련성 연구에 사용될 수 있음을 시사하였다.