• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.203-214
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• 2017

There are two references of genetic information in Korean soybean cultivar. This study suggested that the new seven genetic information to supplement the uncertainty on prediction of potential yield of two references in soybean, and assessed the availability of two references and seven genetic information for future research. We carried out evaluate the prediction on flowering time and potential yield of the two references of genetic parameters and the new seven genetic parameters (New1~New7); the new seven genetic parameters were calibrated in Jinju, Suwon, Chuncheon during 2003-2006. As a result, in the individual and regional combination genetic parameters, the statistical indicators of the genetic parameters of the each site or the genetic parameters of the participating stations showed improved results, but did not significant. In Daegu, Miryang, and Jeonju, the predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of New7 was not improved than that of two references. However, the genetic parameters of New7 showed improvement of predictability on potential yield. No predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of two references as having the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) on flowering time respectively, at 0.00 and 0.01, but the predictability of genetic parameter of New7 was improved as $R^2$ on flowering time of New7 was 0.31 in Miryang. On the other hand, $R^2$ on potential yield of genetic parameters of two references were respectively 0.66 and 0.41, but no predictability on potential yield of genetic parameter of New7 as $R^2$ of New7 showed 0.00 in Jeonju. However, it is expected that the regional combination genetic parameters with the good evaluation can be utilized to predict the flowering timing and potential yields of other regions. Although it is necessary to analyze further whether or not the input data is uncertain.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.71-88
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• 2012

The global warming is probably the most significant issue of concern all over the world and according to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature and extent of global warming around the globe have been on the rise and so have the uncertainty for the future. Such effects of global warming have adverse effects on basic foundation of the mankind in numerous ways and water resource is no exception. The researches on water resources assessment for climate change are significant enough to be used as the preliminary data for researches in other fields. In this research, a total of 124 peer-reviewed publications and 57 reports on the subject of research on climate change related to water resources, that has been carried out so far in Korea has been reviewed. The research on climate change in Korea (inclusive of the peer-reviewed articles and reports) has mainly focused on the future projection and assessment. In the fields of hydrometeorology tendency and projection, the analysis has been carried out with focus on surface water, flood, etc. for hydrological variables and precipitation, temperature, etc. for meteorological variables. This can be attributed to the large, seasonal deviation in the amount of rainfall and the difficulty of water resources management, which is why, the analysis and research have been carried out with focus on those variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, flood, etc. which are directly related to water resources. The future projection of water resources in Korea may differ from region to region; however, variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, etc. have shown a tendency for increase; especially, it has been shown that whereas the number of casualties due to flood or drought decreases, property damage has been shown to increase. Despite the fact that the intensity of rainfall, temperature, and discharge amount are anticipated to rise, appropriate measures to address such vulnerabilities in water resources or management of drainage area of future water resources have not been implemented as yet. Moreover, it has been found that the research results on climate change that have been carried out by different bodies in Korea diverge significantly, which goes to show that many inherent uncertainties exist in the various stage of researches. Regarding the strategy in response to climate change, the voluntary response by an individual or a corporate entity has been found to be inadequate owing to the low level of awareness by the citizens and the weak social infrastructure for responding to climate change. Further, legal or systematic measures such as the governmental campaign on the awareness of climate change or the policy to offer incentives for voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have been found to be insufficient. Lastly, there has been no case of any research whatsoever on the anticipated effects on the economy brought about by climate change, however, there are a few cases of on-going researches. In order to establish the strategy to prepare for and respond to the anticipated lack of water resources resulting from climate change, there is no doubt that a standardized analysis on the effects on the economy should be carried out first and foremost.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to understand Korea students' characteristics as well as to give important information of improving our education using comparative analysis of framework, test booklets, test results between PISA 2009 and NAEA 2009. PISA 2009 was administered on May of 2009 and NAEA was administered on October of same year. The summary of the results of comparing two assessment is as follows First, cut score of NAEA Advance level is bigger than the cut score of level 5, which is considered as high achievement level. The cut score of Basic level of NAEA is also higher than the level 2 of PISA, which is considered as basic achievement level. This phenomenon can show that NAEA achievement level is set little bit higher than the achievement level of PISA in mathematics domain. Second, the percentage of female students on higher level was higher than that of male students. In suburban area, the percentage of high level was small and the percentage of low level was big. Third, students of Advanced level are distributed concentrating in PISA levels 4~6, Proficient achievement level concentrating in PISA levels 3~5, Basic achievement level concentrating in PISA levels 2~4, and below basic achievement levels concentrating in below level 1 and level 3 of PISA. Fourth, the correlation between NAEA 2009 and PISA 2009 achievement scores are significantly positive. However, the correlation of subscales were low. Fifth, analysis of non-equivalent group, 11 items located in 'change and relationship', 'uncertainty', 'connection cluster' domains found to be significantly different. The percent correct showed very big difference. The analysis results presents the implication of mathematics curriculum, teaching and learning methods as well as National Assessment of Educational Achievement.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.175-182
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• 2022

Heavy metals can be intentionally or unintentionally introduced into plastic food utensils, containers, and packaging (PFUCP) as additives or contaminants, which can be ingested with food by humans. Here, seven-heavy metals (lead, cadmium, nickel, chromium, antimony, copper, and manganese) with toxicity concerns were selected, and risk assessment was done by establishing their migration from 137 PFUCP products made of 16 materials distributed in Korea. Migration of heavy metals was examined by applying 4% acetic acid as a food simulant (70℃, 30 minutes) to the PFUCP products. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was employed for the analysis of migrated heavy metals, and the reliability of quantitative results was confirmed by checking linearity, LOD, LOQ, recovery, precision, and expanded uncertainty. As a result of monitoring, heavy metals were detected at a level of non-detection to 8.76 ± 11.87 ㎍/L and most of the heavy metals investigated were only detected at trace amounts of less than 1 ㎍/L on average. However, antimony migrated from PET products was significantly higher than other groups. Risk assessment revealed that all the heavy metals investigated were safe with a margin of exposure above 311. Collectively, we demonstrated that heavy metals migrated from PFUCP products distributed in Korea appear to be within the safe range.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.39 no.1 s.115
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• pp.110-118
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• 2006

The Namyang Stream in Hwaong polder was planned for several water uses including recreation, where people can contact the water and consume some amount during the recreational activity. A human health risk was assessed from exposure to E. coli in the Namyang Stream, which receives partially treated wastewater from watershed. The QUAL2E model was applied to simulate stream water quality, and this model was calibrated and verified with field monitoring data. The calibration result showed a high correlation coefficient of greater than 0.9. The mean concentration of E. coli in the Namyang Stream from the QUAL2E output was in the range of 5,000 ${\sim}$ 8,000 MPN 100 mL^{-1}$, which exceeded national and international guidelines. The Beta-Poisson was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogens ingestion and the Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. The Microbial risk assessment showed that the risk ranged from 7.9 ${\times}\;10^{-6}\;to\;9.4\;{\times}10^{-6}$. Based on USEPA guidelines, the range of $10^{-6}\;to\;10^{-8}$ was considered reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure, and the risk above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be in the danger of infection. Therefore, water quality of the Namyang Stream might not be in the danger of infection although it exceeded national and international guidelines. However, it was in the range of communicable disease transmission, and thorough wastewater collection and treatment at the source is recommended to secure safe recreation water quality.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.404-412
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• 2010

This paper specifically discusses the risk assessment on the pesticide residues in vegetables collected from traditional markets, big marts and departments in the southern part of Seoul. Vegetable samples were 6,583 cases from January to December in 2009. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to calculate the uncertainty for the risk index using pesticide residues, average dietary intake for vegetables and acceptable daily intake. Deterministic risk indexes were 7.33% of diethofencarb, 5.13% of indoxacarb, 3.96% of EPN, 3.92% of diniconazole and 3.09% of chlorothalonil, respectively. And other pesticides were below 3%. Distributions of risk indexes obtained by the Monte-Carlo simulations were similar to the deterministic values, even though the confidence intervals for 95% were very wide. We confirmed that health risks caused by eating vegetables exceeded maximum residue limits of pesticide are very low and the population is generally safe, judging from the risk indexes located between 0.07 to 9.49%.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.38 no.2 s.112
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• pp.225-236
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• 2005

The protection of public health In wastewater reclamation and reuse is one of the most important issues. Monitoring data of Escherichia coli were collected from paddy rice plots in 2003 and 2004 experiments. Five treatments were used and each one was triplicated to evaluate the changes of E. coli: surface water, biofilter effluent (secondary level), UV-disinfected water and pond treatment. Microbial risk was quantified to assess human health risk by exposure to E. coli in paddy rice plots, which were irrigated with reclaimed wastewater. Beta-Poisson model was used to estimate the microbial risk of pathogen ingestion that may occur to farmer and neighbor children. Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 trials) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. In the following analysis, two scenarios were related to the reduction of risk against direct ingestion and exposure times. Scenarios A and B were assumed that the risk was 1,000 and 10,000 times lower than direct ingestion.'Golfers were assumed to be 0.001 L of reclaimed water by contact with balls and their cloths. Opportunity of contact in paddy rice field with pathogens was more frequent than handing golf balls, because of agricultural activity was practiced in ponded water in paddy rice culture. As a result of microbial risk assessment using total data of experimental period, risk value of E. coli in 2003 and 2004 experiment ranged from $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-8}$ and $10^{-4}$ to $10^{-8}$, respectively. The risk values in biofilter effluent irrigation was the highest, which is $10^{-4}$ in 2003 and $10^{-5}$ in 2004 experiments with scenario A. Ranges of $10^{-6}$ to $10^{-8}$ were considered at reasonable levels of risk for communicable disease transmission from environmental exposure and the risk value above $10^{-4}$ was considered to be attributable to the risk of infection. Irrigation with UV-disinfected water in the paddy field during the agricultural Period showed significantly lower microbial risk than others, and their levels of risk value were within the range of actual paddy rice field with surface water.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.25-31
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• 2019

Purpose: Metals induce metal artifact during CT-image for therapy planning, and it occurs images distortion, which affects the volumetric measurement and radiation calculation. In the case of using megavoltage computed tomography(MVCT), the volume of metals can be measured as similar to true volume due to minimal metal artifact outcome. In this study, radiation assessment was conducted by comparing teeth volume from images of kVCT and MVCT of head and neck cancer patients, then assigning to kVCT image to calculate radiation after obtaining the similar volume of true teeth volume from MVCT. Also, formal IR image was able to verify the accuracy of radiation calculation. Material and method: 5 head and neck cancer patients who had intensity-modulated radiation therapy from Radixact^® Series were of the subject in this study. Calculations of radiation when constraining true teeth volume out of kVCT image(A-CT) and when designated specific HU after teeth assigned using MVCT image were compared with formal IR image. Treatment planning was devised at the same constraints and mean dose was measured at the radiation assess points. The points were anterior of the teeth, between PTV and the teeth, the interior of PTV near the teeth, and the teeth where 5cm distance from PTV. Result: A difference of metals volume from kVCT and MVCT image was mean 3.49±2.61cc, maximum 7.43cc. PTV was limited to where the internal teeth were fully contained. The results of PTV dose evaluation showed that the average CI value of the kVCT treatment planning without the artifact correction was 0.86, and the average CI value of the kVCT with the artifact correction using MVCT image was 0.9. Conclusion: When the Treatment Planning was made without correction of metal artifacts, the dose of PTV was underestimated, indicating that dose uncertainty occurred. When the computerized treatment plan was made without correction of metal artifacts, the dose of PTV was underestimated, indicating that dose uncertainty occurred.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.137-147
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• 2013

For the effective management of groundwater resources, it is necessary to predict groundwater level fluctuations in response to rainfall events. In the present study, time series models using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs) have been developed and applied to groundwater level data from the Gasan, Shingwang, and Cheongseong stations of the National Groundwater Monitoring Network. We designed four types of model according to input structure and compared their performances. The results show that the rainfall input model is not effective, especially for the prediction of groundwater recession behavior; however, the rainfall-groundwater input model is effective for the entire prediction stage, yielding a high model accuracy. Recursive prediction models were also effective, yielding correlation coefficients of 0.75-0.95 with observed values. The prediction errors were highest for Shingwang station, where the cross-correlation coefficient is lowest among the stations. Overall, the model performance of SVM models was slightly higher than that of ANN models for all cases. Assessment of the model parameter uncertainty of the recursive prediction models, using the ratio of errors in the validation stage to that in the calibration stage, showed that the range of the ratio is much narrower for the SVM models than for the ANN models, which implies that the SVM models are more stable and effective for the present case studies.