• Title/Summary/Keyword: trend prediction

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A Study on Advance Rate under the Operating Conditions of EPB Shield TBM Based on TBM Operation Data (현장 굴진자료 분석에 의한 토압식 쉴드 TBM의 운전조건과 굴진속도 연구)

  • An, Man Sun;Lim, Kwang-Su;Kim, Kyong Ju
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.6D
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    • pp.839-848
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    • 2011
  • TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) tunnel should be carry out with the adopted machine until the end of excavation because of impossibility of replacement or modification of machine. Observation of the face of the tunnel is difficult, especially in EPB(Earth Pressure Balance) shield TBM, predict changes in the ground condition with analyzing data, collected during the excavation, and it should be reflected in construction. Until recently, subjects of studies on TBM are mainly the determination of machine and the development of advance rate prediction model, according to the characteristics of ground which is the target of excavation. However, study focused on the estimation of ground conditions and the improvement in operational methods using excavation data of TBM equipment, the principal of the excavation, has been done not so much. This study examine the variances in advance rate depending on changes in operating conditions and evaluate the optimal operating conditions of adopt machine, using working data obtained from EPB shield TBM project. The result of this study is suggested as follows. First, cutter head RPM and total thrust force are biggest influences on advance rate, Second, it is recommended for proper advance rate that total thrust force is controlled while optimum cutter head RPM is kept, Third, according to the increasing trend of total thrust force, the changes in ground conditions can be predicted, the appropriate operating conditions can be determined.

Prediction of Runoff on a Small Forest Watershed Using BROOK90 Model (BROOK90 모형을 이용한 산림소유역의 유출량 추정)

  • Im, Sang-Jun;Lee, Sang-Ho;Lee, Hee-Gon;Ahn, Su-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2007
  • Water balance is the major factor in forest ecosystem, and is closely related to the vegetation and topographic characteristics within a watershed. The hydrologic response of a forest watershed was investigated with the hydrological model. The deterministic, lumped parameter model (BROOK90) was selected and used to evaluate the applicability of the model for simulating daily runoff on the steep, forested watershed. The model was calibrated and validated against the streamflow data measured at the Bukmoongol watershed. The deviation in runoff volume $(D_v)$ was -1.7% for the calibration period, and the $D_v$ value for the validation period was 4.6%. The correlation coefficient (r) and model efficiency (E) on monthly basis were 0.922,0.847, respectively, for the calibration period, while the r- and E-value for the validation period were 0.941, 0.871, respectively. Overall, the simulated streamflows were close to the observations with respect to total runoff volume, seasonal runoff volume, and baseflow index for the simulation period. BROOK90 model was able to reproduce the trend of runoff with higher correlation during the simulation period.

Geostatistical Downscaling of Coarse Scale Remote Sensing Data and Integration with Precise Observation Data for Generation of Fine Scale Thematic Information (고해상도 주제 정보 생성을 위한 저해상도 원격탐사 자료의 지구통계학기반 상세화 및 정밀 관측 자료와의 통합)

  • Park, No-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents a two-stage geostatistical integration approach that aims at downscaling of coarse scale remote sensing data. First, downscaling of the coarse scale sedoncary data is implemented using area-to-point kriging, and this result will be used as trend components on the next integration stage. Then simple kriging with local varying means that integrates sparse precise observation data with the downscaled data is applied to generate thematic information at a finer scale. The presented approach can not only account for the statistical relationships between precise observation and secondary data acquired at the different scales, but also to calibrate the errors in the secondary data through the integration with precise observation data. An experiment for precipitation mapping with weather station data and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data acquired at a coarse scale is carried out to illustrate the applicability of the presented approach. From the experiment, the geostatistical downscaling approach applied in this paper could generate detailed thematic information at various finer target scales that reproduced the original TRMM precipitation values when upscaled. And the integration of the downscaled secondary information with precise observation data showed better prediction capability than that of a conventional univariate kriging algorithm. Thus, it is expected that the presented approach would be effectively used for downscaling of coarse scale data with various data acquired at different scales.

Hunt-Hess and Fisher Grades as Predicting Factors for Chronic Hydrocephalus in Surgically Treated Ruptured Aneurysm (수술적 치료를 받은 파열성 뇌동맥류환자에서의 예후와 뇌실-복강 단락술의 예측인자로써의 Hunt-Hess Grade와 Fisher Grade)

  • Hong, Chang Ki;Park, Chong Oon;Hyun, Dong Keun;Ha, Young Soo
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.60-65
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    • 2001
  • Objective : The popular grading systems in use, such as Hunt-Hess grade and Fisher scale score, are based primarily on the patient's clinical conditions or computerized tomography score after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH). The author investigated whether the need for ventriculoperitoneal(VP) shunt for chronic hydrocephalus and outcome can be predicted by Hunt-Hess grade and Fisher scale. Methods : A series of 146 patients admitted to our hospital from August 1991 to July 1999, who presented with SAH and underwent craniotomy for aneurysm clipping were studied retrospectively. Chronic hydrocephalus was defined as clinically and radiographically demonstrated hydrocephalus that lasted 2 weeks or longer after initial hemorrhage which required shunting. Patients were evaluated based on following factors : Hunt-Hess grade, Fisher scale, age, sex, hypertension, aneurysm location, and intervals from aneurysm rupture to operation. Results : The overall mortality rate of the study group was 8.2%. Hunt-Hess grade(p=0.001) or Fisher scale (p=0.001) at all pretreatment times was significantly correlated with outcome. In addition, there was an increased risk of poor outcome in older age(65<). However, there were statistically no significant relationship between outcome and sex, location of aneurysm, hypertension, and interval from aneurysmal rupture to operation(p>0.05). Of 134 surviving patients, 16 patients(12%) underwent VP shunt placement secondary to chronic hydrocephalus. Hunt-Hess grade(p=0.001) is more predictive of chronic hydrocephalus than Fisher scale(p=0.146). Aneurysm location was significantly correlated with development of chronic hydrocephalus (p<0.05), without significant correlations in sex, age, hypertension. IVH, and ICH. Conclusion : This study suggests that there is a high clinical correlation between outcome and Hunt-Hess grades and Fisher scales on admission, but Hunt-Hess grade is more predictive for chronic hydrocephalus than Fisher scale. In addition, age(<65 yrs) is the significant factor for prediction of outcome. There was a trend of increasing risk for chronic hydrocephalus according to aneurymal location.

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Projecting Future Change in the Female Labor Force based on Historical Experiences of Other Developed Countries: Implications for the Effects of Changing Population Structure on the Size of the Workforce (선진국의 역사적 사례에 기초한 여성경제활동인구 변화 전망 : 인구구조 변화가 노동인력규모에 미치는 영향에 대한 함의)

  • Lee, Chulhee;Kim, Claire Kyu-yeon
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2019
  • This study estimates how changes in the female (aged 25 to 54) labor force participation rate (LFPR) following the historical experiences of the US and Japan would alter the future trend of the female economically active population by 2065, compared to the case in which the LFPR as of 2018 will remain unchanged. According to the results, the female labor force aged 25 to 54 will increase by 14% (about 797,000) and 15% (about 831,000), respectively, by 2042 if the female LFPR should change following the past trends of the US and Japan. In particular, the increase in the labor force is expected to be pronounced among females aged 30 to 44 who currently suffer high rates of job severance. The results of this study strengthen the prediction that the on-going population changes will not reduce much the overall economically active population in the near future. The result of a simulation based on the historical experiences of Japan suggests that, as least in the near future, policy efforts to encourage female labor supply will be more effective in alleviating the potential labor-market impacts of population changes, compared to policies aiming at increasing old-age employment.

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The Effects of City's Search Keyword Type on Facebook Page Fans and Inbound Tourists : Focusing on Seoul City (도시의 검색키워드 유형이 페이스북 페이지 팬 수 및 관광객 수에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 서울시를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jee-Hye;Lee, Hyo-Bok
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.10
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2017
  • This study investigate the effect of each type of search volume on the number of Facebook fans and the number of tourists. According to the hierarchy effect model, the effect of communication appears to be the sequentiality of cognition-attitude-behavior. Applying this theory, this study predicted that when consumers who have higher involvement and knowledge on specific cities through search behavior, they will be more active in information search through Facebook fan page subscription and will lead to direct tourism behavior. To verify the prediction, we examined the influences among search volume of Seoul shown in Google Trend, the number of fans of official facebook page named 'Seoul Korea', and the number of foreign tourists. As a result, the type of search keyword was divided into four categories: tourism attraction keyword, natural environment keyword, symbolic keyword, and accessibility keyword. The regression analysis showed that tourism attraction keyword and symbolic keyword have influence on Facebook fanpage 'Like'. In addition, facebook fanpage fan size have mediation effect between search volume and number of tourists. All in all, it would be useful to appeal to foreign tourists with a message that emphasizes tourism attraction and Korea-related contents.

Feature Extraction for Bearing Prognostics based on Frequency Energy (베어링 잔존 수명 예측을 위한 주파수 에너지 기반 특징신호 추출)

  • Kim, Seokgoo;Choi, Joo-Ho;An, Dawn
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.128-139
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    • 2017
  • Railway is one of the public transportation systems along with shipping and aviation. With the recent introduction of high speed train, its proportion is increasing rapidly, which results in the higher risk of catastrophic failures. The wheel bearing to support the train is one of the important components requiring higher reliability and safety in this aspect. Recently, many studies have been made under the name of prognostics and health management (PHM), for the purpose of fault diagnosis and failure prognosis of the bearing under operation. Among them, the most important step is to extract a feature that represents the fault status properly and is useful for accurate remaining life prediction. However, the conventional features have shown some limitations that make them less useful since they fluctuate over time even after the signal de-noising or do not show a distinct pattern of degradation which lack the monotonic trend over the cycles. In this study, a new method for feature extraction is proposed based on the observation of relative frequency energy shifting over the cycles, which is then converted into the feature using the information entropy. In order to demonstrate the method, traditional and new features are generated and compared using the bearing data named FEMTO which was provided by the FEMTO-ST institute for IEEE 2012 PHM Data Challenge competition.

Temporal Change in Radiological Environments on Land after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

  • Saito, Kimiaki;Mikami, Satoshi;Andoh, Masaki;Matsuda, Norihiro;Kinase, Sakae;Tsuda, Shuichi;Sato, Tetsuro;Seki, Akiyuki;Sanada, Yukihisa;Wainwright-Murakami, Haruko;Yoshimura, Kazuya;Takemiya, Hiroshi;Takahashi, Junko;Kato, Hiroaki;Onda, Yuichi
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.128-148
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    • 2019
  • Massive environmental monitoring has been conducted continuously since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power accident in March of 2011 by different monitoring methods that have different features together with migration studies of radiocesium in diverse environments. These results have clarified the characteristics of radiological environments and their temporal change around the Fukushima site. At three months after the accident, multiple radionuclides including radiostrontium and plutonium were detected in many locations; and it was confirmed that radiocesium was most important from the viewpoint of long-term exposure. Radiation levels around the Fukushima site have decreased greatly over time. The decreasing trend was found to change variously according to local conditions. The air dose rates in environments related to human living have decreased faster than expected from radioactive decay by a factor of 2-3 on average; those in pure forest have decreased more closely to physical decay. The main causes of air dose rate reduction were judged to be radioactive decay, movement of radiocesium in vertical and horizontal directions, and decontamination. Land-use categories and human activities have significantly affected the reduction tendency. Difference in the air dose rate reduction trends can be explained qualitatively according to the knowledge obtained in radiocesium migration studies; whereas, the quantitative explanation for individual sites is an important future challenge. The ecological half-lives of air dose rates have been evaluated by several researchers, and a short-term half-life within 1 year was commonly observed in the studies. An empirical model for predicting air dose rate distribution was developed based on statistical analysis of an extensive car-borne survey dataset, which enabled the prediction with confidence intervals. Different types of contamination maps were integrated to better quantify the spatial data. The obtained data were used for extended studies such as for identifying the main reactor that caused the contamination of arbitrary regions and developing standard procedures for environmental measurement and sampling. Annual external exposure doses for residents who intended to return to their homes were estimated as within a few millisieverts. Different forms of environmental data and knowledge have been provided for wide spectrum of people. Diverse aspects of lessons learned from the Fukushima accident, including practical ones, must be passed on to future generations.

Bond Strength of Wafer Stack Including Inorganic and Organic Thin Films (무기 및 유기 박막을 포함하는 웨이퍼 적층 구조의 본딩 결합력)

  • Kwon, Yongchai;Seok, Jongwon
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.619-625
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    • 2008
  • The effects of thermal cycling on residual stresses in both inorganic passivation/insulating layer that is deposited by plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) and organic thin film that is used as a bonding adhesive are evaluated by 4 point bending method and wafer curvature method. $SiO_2/SiN_x$ and BCB (Benzocyclobutene) are used as inorganic and organic layers, respectively. A model about the effect of thermal cycling on residual stress and bond strength (Strain energy release rate), $G_c$, at the interface between inorganic thin film and organic adhesive is developed. In thermal cycling experiments conducted between $25^{\circ}C$ and either $350^{\circ}C$ or $400^{\circ}C$, $G_c$ at the interface between BCB and PECVD $ SiN_x $ decreases after the first cycle. This trend in $G_c$ agreed well with the prediction based on our model that the increase in residual tensile stress within the $SiN_x$ layer after thermal cycling leads to the decrease in $G_c$. This result is compared with that obtained for the interface between BCB and PECVD $SiO_2$, where the relaxation in residual compressive stress within the $SiO_2$ induces an increase in $G_c$. These opposite trends in $G_cs$ of the structures including either PECVD $ SiN_x $ or PECVD $SiO_2$ are caused by reactions in the hydrogen-bonded chemical structure of the PECVD layers, followed by desorption of water.

Analysis of Defective Causes in Real Time and Prediction of Facility Replacement Cycle based on Big Data (빅데이터 기반 실시간 불량품 발생 원인 분석 및 설비 교체주기 예측)

  • Hwang, Seung-Yeon;Kwak, Kyung-Min;Shin, Dong-Jin;Kwak, Kwang-Jin;Rho, Young-J;Park, Kyung-won;Park, Jeong-Min;Kim, Jeong-Joon
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.203-212
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    • 2019
  • Along with the recent fourth industrial revolution, the world's manufacturing powerhouses are pushing for national strategies to revive the sluggish manufacturing industry. Moon Jae-in, the government is in accordance with the trend, called 'advancement of science and technology is leading the fourth round of the Industrial Revolution' strategy. Intelligent information technology such as IoT, Cloud, Big Data, Mobile, and AI, which are key technologies that lead the fourth industrial revolution, is promoting the emergence of new industries such as robots and 3D printing and the smarting of existing major manufacturing industries. Advances in technologies such as smart factories have enabled IoT-based sensing technology to measure various data that could not be collected before, and data generated by each process has also exploded. Thus, this paper uses data generators to generate virtual data that can occur in smart factories, and uses them to analyze the cause of the defect in real time and to predict the replacement cycle of the facility.