• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.3-18
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• 2013

This study develops a forecasting method to estimate air cargo demand from ICN(Incheon International Airport) to all airports in EU with Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model using volumes from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2009. This paper shows the superiority of SARIMA Model by comparing the forecasting accuracy of SARIMA with that of other ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. Given that very few papers and researches focuses on air route, this paper will be helpful to researchers concerned with air cargo.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.29-43
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• 1989

The purpose of this study is to construct a forecasting model involved in a diverted traffic volume of the 2nd intra-urban expressway in construction presently, in the case of the future prediction of traffic demand for the intra-urban expressway in Pusan. In this study, the model involved in a diverted traffic volume is constructed trustworthy. And the future traffic demand of intra-urban expressway by this model was forecasted 114,005 volume/daily in 1996 and 147,090 volume/daily in 2001. However, it will made a study more and more concretely for practicality and limitation as well as construction of the forecasting model considered an intrinsic problem of an observational error and necessity of survey for much more socio-economic data, the traffic volume on all orad and OD pairs in Pusan.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.638-646
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• 2007

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.4 s.90
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• pp.7-17
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• 2006

The purpose or this paper is to investigate the relationship between highway improvement and Induced Travel Demand(ITD) focusing on the Seoul metropolitan area data. In addition, authors tried to estimate basic unit of demand elasticity focusing on zone and trip purpose which can be applied for the ITD forecasting. The results are based on the 2002 Metropolitan Household Transportation Survey Data, where the demand elasticity (DE) is -0.582 in Seoul, -0.597 in Incheon and -0.559 in Gyounggi province, respectively. This study revealed part of the relationship between highway improvement and ITD for metropolitan region and provided the framework for yielding real estimated values by applying the concept of demand elasticity in terms of the relationship by using regional and long-term data. We expect that the basic unit of demand elasticity focusing on zone and trip purpose can be applied for the ITD forecasting to analyze the whole demand exactly The estimated DE's for age group and day of week can also be used for Proper transportation management and transport Policy making. Some limitations have also been discussed.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.341-346
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• 2018

Supramax bulk carriers cover a wide range of ocean transportation requirements, from major to minor bulk cargoes. Market forecasting for this segment has posed a challenge to researchers, due to complexity involved, on the demand side of the forecasting model. This paper addresses this issue by using technical indicators as input features, instead of complicated supply-demand variables. Artificial neural networks (ANN), one of the most popular machine-learning tools, were used to replace classical time-series models. Results revealed that ANN outperformed the benchmark binomial logistic regression model, and predicted direction of the spot market with more than 70% accuracy. Results obtained in this paper, can enable chartering desks to make better short-term chartering decisions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.21-30
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• 1993

When the cars were not popular, the majority of travellers used the tour-bus. As the total number of cars increases every year, the pattern of travelling means is changing. This paper develops statistical models to predict the number of cars, to estimate the macket share of road transportation between tour-bus and cars.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.141-154
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• 2018

In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.217-226
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• 2011

The Seoul Metropolitan Government is striving to minimize the amount of traffic according to the supply of apartment houses along with the solution of housing shortage for the low income people through high density development near the subway area. Therefore, a stronger policy is necessary to control the traffic of the passenger cars in a subway area for the successful high density development focusing on public transportation, and especially, the estimation of the demand of cars with high reliability is necessary to control the demand of parking such as the limited supply of parking lot. Accordingly, this study developed car ownership forecasting model using Look-up Table among category analyses which are easy to be applied and have high reliability. The estimation method using Look-up-Table is possible to be applied to both measurable and immeasurable types, easy to accumulate data, and features the flexible responding depending on the changes of conditions. This study established Look-up-Table model through the survey of geographical location, the scale of housing, the accessible distance to a subway station and to a bus station, the number of bus routes, and the number of car owned with data regarding 242 blocks in Seoul City as subjects.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.155-162
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• 2009

The recent increase of light rail construction by the private sector in Korea has caused a new issue in forecasting rail demand. Integrated fare systems between several rail operators is convenient and brings cost savings to users, and therefore is also very effective in increasing demand. However, it causes some short-term revenue loss to operators so that the private sector often suggests a non-integrated fare system. The current rail demand forecasting model is based upon an integrated fare system. Thus this model cannot be used to forecast the demand with a non-integrated fare system. Some value of transfer fare should be estimated and applied to forecast the demand in a non-integrated fare system. This study conducted a stated preference (SP) survey on urban railway passengers and estimated the value of transfer fare. The estimated value is 2,609 Won/hr, which is about 52% of in-vehicle time. This shows railway users have a tendency to pay more for transfer fares to save time or distance. This value has some limitations since it is derived from the SP survey. If some non-integrated fare system is applied in the future and a RP survey is conducted and compared with these study results, a more clear value of the transfer fare will be derived.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.29 no.9
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• pp.795-800
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• 2005

Nowadays, road transportation which has played a key role in the market of both passenger and freight transportation is facing with a serious problem, the traffic congestion causing a delay of transportation. Therefore, railroad transportation is considered as an attractive alternative mode of inland transportation due to its inherent merits in mass transportation such as relatively low cost compared with road transportations, less air pollution and noise than other mode ets. In this paper, therefore, we examine the current situation of railroad transportation markets including TKR(Trans- Korean Railway}, TSR(Trans-Siberian Railway} and prospects for the connection of TKR-TSR. And then we examine the structure of the container transportation market by railroad in Korea with a brief analysis of the traffic volume of TKR-TSR.