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http://dx.doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.003

Forecasting the Air Cargo Demand With Seasonal ARIMA Model: Focusing on ICN to EU Route  

Min, Kyung-Chang (Graduate School of Logistics, Inha University)
Jun, Young-In (Graduate School of Logistics, Inha University)
Ha, Hun-Koo (Graduate School of Logistics, Inha University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.31, no.3, 2013 , pp. 3-18 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study develops a forecasting method to estimate air cargo demand from ICN(Incheon International Airport) to all airports in EU with Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model using volumes from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2009. This paper shows the superiority of SARIMA Model by comparing the forecasting accuracy of SARIMA with that of other ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. Given that very few papers and researches focuses on air route, this paper will be helpful to researchers concerned with air cargo.
Keywords
Air Cargo Demand; ARIMA; Seasonal ARIMA; Demand Forecasting; EU Air Cargo; Unit-root Test;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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