• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.105-121
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• 2019

This study applies diverse game theories to the US-China Trade War. The US-China Trade War can be analyzed as a game situation because the strategic decision-making process to maximize one's profit while considering the reaction of the other party is a game situation. However, related research suffered from some mistakes in applying the US-China Trade War as it is to classic game theory, because while the prisoners dilemma is based on the situation of No Communication, No Trust, No Cooperation, the US-China Trade War has a precondition different from that of prisoners dilemma, since it mutually communicates information and negotiation is repeated several times in a cooperative situation. The result of the trade negotiation will likely end as 'cooperate-cooperate'. Further, considering trade volume, trade interdependence, bargaining power based on economy, and the scale of damage caused by the Trade War, the US-China Trade War is progressing with the bargaining power of the US being higher than that of China. Since the current US-China Trade War is in an asymmetrical situation under the dominant bargaining power of the US, it is likely to reach 'US defect-China cooperative' in the long run.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.8
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• pp.153-170
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• 2020

Purpose - As the US-China trade war intensifies and lasts long time, there is growing concern about its potential effects on the global economy. In particular, for the countries like Korea that have a large economic dependence on the economy of the two countries, the US-China trade war may have a great repercussion in many ways. The aim of this paper is to investigate the global productivity and market structure implications of the US-China trade war for Korea, as well as for other surrounding countries and regions. Design/methodology - In this paper, we develop a full multi-country/region multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade incorporating heterogeneous workers and firms in individual skill levels and used technologies. We then calibrate the model using a global Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) dataset extracted from the recently released GTAP 10 Database, and assess the potential effects of the US-China trade war on the aggregate real productivity and the market structure for Korea, as well as for other surrounding countries and regions. Findings - We show that the US-China trade war may largely affect the aggregate productivity in each sector in each country/region, as well as the global market structure through entry and exit of firms, which results finally in considerable changes in the industrial comparative advantage of each country/region. Though the effects are diverse sector by sector, the results show that Korea may also be affected significantly: concerning the real productivity implications, it is shown that the machinery industry may be affected the most negatively; on the other hand, it is shown that the number of exporting firms may decrease the most in the other transports industry. Originality/value - As the US-China trade war intensifies, many studies have tried to estimate the possible implications, and for this usually the CGE models have largely been used as the standard tool for evaluating the impacts of changes in trade policies. Standard CGE models, however, cannot be used to assess the global productivity and market structure implications due to the symmetric and simplified base assumptions. This paper is the first to analyze and quantify the possible impacts of the US-China trade war on the aggregate productivity and global market structure using a CGE model incorporating endogenous skill-technology assignment of heterogeneous workers and firms.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.61-68
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• 2021

The exchange rate is considered a tool improving the volume of exports and reducing imports. This paper aims to determine the impact of the exchange rate on exports and imports between Vietnam and the United States in the context of the trade war. The research uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Model in the time-series data from 2010:1 to 2020:9. The ARDL's results support that real exchange rate impact on export and import volumes, but less than the trade war. The trade war helps trade balance increase 0.35%, while the exchange rate increases trade balance 0.191% when the Vietnamese currency devalues 1% in the long run. In the short term, the real exchange rate makes the trade balance decrease. Therefore, the J curve exists between Vietnam and the U.S. The NARDL expresses that the exchange rate is asymmetric both in the short term and the long term. The findings of this study point to two important elements. Firstly, the exchange rate plays a minor role in exports and imports. Secondly, trade war plays a vital role in increasing exports and imports volume between two countries, and the J curve exists between the two countries.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.63-68
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• 2019

Recently, the United States and China have declared a 25% retaliatory tariff for the partner country products of 50 billion dollar scale. "Trade war" is getting full swing. Such conflicts between economic powers may spread to Japan like the domino phenomenon following the EU (European Union) and become bigger in the global trade war. As a result, Korea has an economic system with a high degree of external dependence, and there is an expert's analysis that it will become the largest victim of the global trade war. If the WTO Dispute Settlement Authority approves this US 301 retaliation measure in the same way as the past case (US-EU hormone-treated beef imports), the United States will not import any Chinese imported products Chinese products) can be imposed. If the US launches a special 301 or super 301, which is stronger than the regular 301, then China is very likely to enforce US retaliation against it, and the trade war between the two countries could become a reality. This phenomenon is likely to have a negative impact on Korean companies. In particular, Korea, which is highly reliant on intermediate goods exports to China, is expected to suffer a great deal of damage. Therefore, Korea needs flexible response at home and abroad, it is necessary to enhance the autonomy of companies and protect export industries. Adjusting corporate tax rate as well as domestic industry height will be one way. The long-term (21 months) trade war between the United States and China has resulted in economic uncertainty. The resulting damage must be compensated. It is necessary to prepare the compensation through the economic council between countries. In the future, the punitive damage compensation system should be introduced.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.229-246
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• 2022

In order to understand the economic damage of economic sanctions on trade between Korea and Russia, a trade structure analysis was conducted through statistics on import and export trade between Korea and Russia. Through the structural analysis of product trade, we tried to accurately analyze the current status of product trade between Korea and Russia. In the trade structure analysis, it was confirmed that the trade in goods between Korea and Russia decreased the most in market share and trade concentration. However, trade specialization, comparative advantage by market, and intra-industry trade index were not significantly affected despite strong economic sanctions. from Russia's point of view Smart measures are needed to address the current situation to avoid a greater economic downturn. The end of the war and the restoration of partnership with other countries are considered the most beneficial solutions for Russia and all countries, but it is difficult to predict how the war will go or what economic situation Russia will be in after the war.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.233-272
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• 2021

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, signed in November 2020, comes shortly after the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force and the US-China Trade War escalated. We use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the long-term effects of these three developments on income, trade, economic structure, factor returns and employment across the world, and especially in Asia-Pacific countries. The results suggest that RCEP could generate income gains that will be almost twice as large as those of the CPTPP, and that the two agreements together will largely offset the substantial negative effects of the US-China Trade War for the world as a whole. All three policy developments, but especially RCEP, will deepen East Asian production networks and will raise productivity and increase wages and employment in much of East Asia. At the sectoral level, regional trade in non-durable and durable manufactures will experience the most growth.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.207-211
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• 2020

In the global economy, trade is not confined in geological boundaries, enhancing the international relation among countries. However, the trade tension between the largest economy and the second-largest economy raise concerns among the world economies, enhancing the uncertainties around world. In particular, the trade tension between the two countries is highly related with South Korea's trade balance, because the country is highly dependent on the trade with the two countries. Given this, we analyzed the news editorials published in Korean quality newsaper, with related to U.S. and China Trade War by looking at the ideological perspectives of news outlets or journalists to the issue within the framework of critical discourse analysis. In particular we gave a special attention to the attitude to each country in order to investigate their ideological stance to the country, following van Dijk (1998)' ideological square. The results are as follows: first, the Chosun Ilbo emphasized 'their' bad properties directly and aggresively, while the Hankyoreh designated the U.S. as a member of an out-group, thus mitigating 'our' bad quatilies; Second, the two strategies of emphasis and mitigation enabled both newspapers to reinforce in-group homogeneity and out-group exclusion. Thus, we could conclude that the editorial is a clear indicator to show the news outlet's ideological stance to each country in regard to the trade issue.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.47-66
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• 2018

This study analyzes the potential economic effects of a trade war between the U.S. and China. The CGE model is used to estimate the macroeconomic variables of each country and the change in imports/exports by industry by considering three different scenarios: (i) the US imposes a 25% of tariff on China; (ii) the US and China impose a 25% tariff bilaterally; (iii) the United States expands protection in vehicles and metals to Korea, Japan, and the EU. According to the results of the study, when the US and China initiate a trade war, GDP and welfare of both countries decline. China's decline in GDP and welfare are larger than those of the United States, which implies a trade war is more favorable to the U.S. than to China. In the long run, China's GDP and welfare decline widens further. While the trade volumes of the US and China are greatly reduced, the trade volumes of other countries does not significantly fluctuate. Finally, if the US extends protection policy to Korea, Japan and the EU, it creates undesirable effects on the US. In particular, damage to the US jeopardizes its advantageous position in a trade war with China. In order to emphasize the unfairness of protectionist policy and the damage to Korean industry, Korea needs to establish a strategy to counter US protectionist policy.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.243-258
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• 2021

By using the trade in value-added(TiVA) database and employing social network analysis, this paper analyzes changes in global trade to be triggered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the US-China trade war. The main results are summarized as follows. First, the BRI will help maintain China's core position as the world's manufacturing hub, and will strengthen Europe's service industry capabilities within the global value chain(GVC) network. Second, the US R&D industry, US wholesale and retail industries, and Germany's automobile industry were considered the most influential industries in the GVC network during the 1995-2011 period, and will retain their status until 2049, when the US-China trade war and the BRI are reflected. Third, the increase of the number of communities shows that the BRI might spur fragmentation of the production process. Finally, community structures of inter-industry trade relations, including China's electronics industry, Germany's automobile industry, and US R&D, show important features that are related to the competiveness of each country's service industries.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.24 no.9
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• pp.127-134
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to understand the purchasing intentions of Chinese consumers to Huawei and other domestic brands in the context of the current Sino-US trade war. Taking the mass consumers as the research object, this paper designs Likert five-level scale to investigate consumers' purchase intention of domestic products in the future, and uses SPSS 23.0 and AMOS 23.0 statistical software to analyze and process statistical data. Using questionnaire survey and exploratory factor analysis, this paper constructs a model to analyze the impact of consumer ethnocentrism on consumers' purchase intention. By summarizing the overall purchasing intention of consumers, it is concluded that the development of domestic brands in the context of trade war is facing difficulties and challenges in the future, but at the same time, we must seize the opportunity of consumers' ethnocentrism under this background to positively influence their purchasing intention, make up for shortcomings, eliminate overcapacity, and seek greater development through technological innovation.