Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea (한국경제지리학회지)

The Economic Geographical Society of Korea (한국경제지리학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

The Belt and Road Initiative and the US-China Trade War: Implications for Global Trade Networks

일대일로와 미·중 무역 분쟁: 글로벌 무역 네트워크에의 함의

  • Hyun, Kisoon (Center for East Asian Studies, Sungshin Womens's University)
  • 현기순 (성신여자대학교 동아시아연구소)
  • Received : 2021.09.24
  • Published : 2021.09.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

By using the trade in value-added(TiVA) database and employing social network analysis, this paper analyzes changes in global trade to be triggered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the US-China trade war. The main results are summarized as follows. First, the BRI will help maintain China's core position as the world's manufacturing hub, and will strengthen Europe's service industry capabilities within the global value chain(GVC) network. Second, the US R&D industry, US wholesale and retail industries, and Germany's automobile industry were considered the most influential industries in the GVC network during the 1995-2011 period, and will retain their status until 2049, when the US-China trade war and the BRI are reflected. Third, the increase of the number of communities shows that the BRI might spur fragmentation of the production process. Finally, community structures of inter-industry trade relations, including China's electronics industry, Germany's automobile industry, and US R&D, show important features that are related to the competiveness of each country's service industries.

본 연구는 미·중 무역 전쟁과 일대일로가 촉발할 세계무역의 변화를 부가가치 기준 무역 통계를 이용하고, 사회연결망 기법을 활용하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 첫째, 일대일로 무역 환경은 제조 허브로서의 중국의 위상을 견고히 하고, 유럽 서비스 산업의 위상을 강화한다. 둘째, 1995년부터 2011년까지 GVC 네트워크 내에서 영향력이 큰 산업인 미국의 R&D 산업과 도소매업 및 독일의 자동차 산업은 미·중 무역 분쟁과 일대일로 무역 환경이 반영된 2049년까지도 그 위상이 안정적으로 유지된다. 셋째, 커뮤니티 수의 증가를 통해 일대일로가 GVC 네트워크의 분화를 심화시킨다는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 끝으로 중국의 전자 산업, 독일의 자동차 산업, 미국의 R&D 산업의 커뮤니티 진화 형태에서 주목할 만한 특성이 발견되는데 이는 각국 서비스 산업의 역량과 밀접하게 연관된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2018년 대한민국 교육부와 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임(NRF-2018S1A5A8026872).

References

  1. 김석민, 2017, "동북아지역 국가의 부가가치무역 구조 시각화 분석," 한국동북아논총 84, pp.25-44.
  2. 김옥준, 2015, "중국의 일대일로(一帶一路) 구상과 정치.경제적 함의: 실크로드 경제벨트 구축을 중심으로," 국제정치연구 18(1), pp.289-307.
  3. 김영진, 2019, "유라시아의 비서구 지역통합 프로젝트: 유라시아경제연합(EAEU)와 일대일로(BRI)," 슬라브학보 34(1), pp.177-209.
  4. 박상현, 2020, "트럼프 행정부의 '무역전쟁'과 G-0의 세계?," 경제와 사회 125, pp.402-428.
  5. 송민근, 2017, "일대일로 참여국에 대한 중국의 무역 의존성 분석과 시사점," 디지털융복합연구, 15(9) pp.189-200. https://doi.org/10.14400/JDC.2017.15.9.189
  6. 송영관, 2021, "바이든 시대 국제통상환경과 한국의 대응전략," KDI Focus 104, KDI.
  7. 이승주, 2019, "미중 무역 전쟁: 트럼프 행정부의 다차원적 복합 게임," 국제지역연구 28(4), pp.1-34.
  8. 전병현.한치근, 2013, "모듈래러티를 이용한 소셜 네트워크의 커뮤니티 통합에 필요한 에지 수 결정 방법," 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지 18(7), pp.101-109. https://doi.org/10.9708/JKSCI.2013.18.7.101
  9. 정준호.조형제, 2016, "OECD 부가가치 기준 교역자료를 이용한 자동차산업 글로벌 생산네트워크의 특성 분석," 한국경제지리학회지 19(3), pp.491-511.
  10. 현기순.이준엽, 2016a, "경제통합과 농식품 교역의 국가 간 네트워크 변화," 한국경제지리학회지 19(1), pp.83-103.
  11. 현기순.이준엽, 2016b, "세계무역 네트워크와 주요국 산업의 역할: 부가가치 교역 자료를 이용한 사회연결망 분석 기법을 중심으로," 한국경제지리학회지 19(4), pp.677-693. https://doi.org/10.23841/EGSK.2016.19.4.677
  12. 현기순.이준엽, 2017, "농식품 무역의 글로벌 네트워크와 한국의 위상," 한국경제지리학회지 20(2), pp.121-136.
  13. 현기순, 2021, "중국의 일대일로 추진: 글로벌 무역 네트워크에의 함의," 인문사회 21 12(4), pp.661-676.
  14. Amadeo, K., 2020, US Trade Deficit by Country, With Current Statistic and Issues: Why America Cannot Just Make Everything It Needs. Retrieved from https://www.thebalance.com/trade-deficit-by-county-3306264
  15. Amador, J. and Cabral, S., 2016, Networks of Value Added Trade, European Central Bank Working Paper, No.1931.
  16. Baldwin, R. and Lopez-Gonzalez, J., 2015. "Supply-chain trade: a portrait of global patterns and several testable hypotheses," The World Economy 38(11), pp.1682-1721. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12189
  17. Baniya, S., Rocha, N. and Ruta, M., 2020, "Trade effects of the new silk road: a gravity analysis," Journal of Development Economics 146, 102467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102467
  18. Barigozzi, M., Fagiolo, G. and Garlaschelli, D., 2010, "Multinetwork of international trade: a commodity-specific analysis," Physical Review E 81, 046104. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.81.046104
  19. Bekkers, E. and Schroter, S., 2020, An Economic Analysis of the US-China Trade Conflict, WTO staff Working Paper No. ERSD-2020-04, Geneva: WTO.
  20. Bekkers, E. and Teh, R., 2019, Potential Economic Effects of a Global Trade Conflict: Projecting the Medium-Run Effects with the WTO Global Trade Model, WTO staff Working Paper No. ERSD-2019-04, Geneva: WTO.
  21. Boffa, M., 2018, Trade Linkages between the Belt and Road Economies, Policy Research Working Paper, 8423, Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
  22. Chen, S.-C., Hou, J. and Xiao, D., 2018, ""One Belt, One Road" initiative to stimulate trade in China: a counter-factual analysis," Sustainability 10(9), 3242. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093242
  23. Devadason, P. and Govindaraje, V. C., 2017, "What does the "one belt, one road" initiative mean for ASEAN?" Asia Res. News 47, pp.189-205.
  24. Flint, C. and Zhu, C., 2019, "The geopolitics of connectivity, cooperation, and hegemonic competition: the Belt and Road Initiative," Geoforum 99, pp.95-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2018.12.008
  25. Freeman, L. C., 1979, "Centrality in social networks: conceptual clarification," Social Networks 1, pp.215-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-8733(78)90021-7
  26. Ge, Y., Dollar, D. and Yu, X., 2020, "Institutions and participation in global value chains: evidence from belt and road initiative," China Economic Review 61, 101447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101447
  27. Gong, P., Song, Z. and Liu, W., 2015, "Commodity structure of trade between China and countries in the belt and road initiative area," Progress in Geography 34(5), pp.571-580. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.05.005
  28. Hart-Landsberg, M., 2011, "Capitalism, the Korea-US free trade agreement, and resistance," Critical Asian Studies 43(3), pp.310-248. https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2011.597332
  29. Herrero, A. G. and Xu, J., 2017, "China's belt and road initiative: Can Europe expect trade gains?," China & World Economy 25(6), pp.84-99. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12222
  30. IMF, 2019, World Economic Outlook: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
  31. Kadtler, J. and Sperling, H. J., 2002, "After globalisation and financialisation: logics of bargaining in the German automotive industry," Competition and Change 6(2), pp.149-168. https://doi.org/10.1080/10245290213675
  32. Lanz, R. and Maurer, A., 2015, "Services and global value chains: servicification of manufacturing and services networks," Journal of International Commerce, Economic and Policy 6(3), 1550014. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993315500143
  33. Maluck, J. and Donner, R. V., 2015, "A network of networks perspective on global trade," PloS ONE 10(7), e0133310. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133310
  34. Mao, H. and Gorg, H., 2000, "Friends like this: the impact of the US-China trade war on global value chains," The World Economy 43(7), pp.1776-1791. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12967
  35. Morgan Stanley, 2018, Inside china's Plan to Create a Modern Silk Road. Retrieved from https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/china-belt-and-road
  36. Newman, M. E. J. and Girvan, M., 2004, "Finding and evaluating community structure in networks," Physical Reiew E 69, 026113. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.69.026113
  37. Said, F. F. and Fang, M., 2019, "A probe into the status of global countries' trade positions in the global value chain (GVC)-based on value added trade perspective and network modelling," European Journal of Sustainable Development 8(1), pp.305-323.
  38. Song, Z., Che, S. and Yang, Y., 2018, "The trade network of the belt and road initiative and its topological relationship to the global trade network," Journal of Geographical Sciences 28(9), pp.1249-1262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-018-1523-8
  39. Steinbock, D., 2018, "US-China trade war and its global impacts," China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies 4(4), pp.515-542. https://doi.org/10.1142/s2377740018500318
  40. The Economic Times, 2020, China's trade with BRI countries surges to $1.34 trillion in 2019, Retrieved from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/chinas-trade-with-bri-countries-surges-to-1-34-trillion-in-2019/articleshow/73271222.cms?from=mdr
  41. Tzekina, I., Danthi, K. and Rockmore, D. N., 2008, "Evolution of community structure in the world trade web," The European Physical Journal B 63, pp.541-545. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2008-00181-2
  42. Vlados, C., 2020, "The dynamics of the current global restructuring and contemporary framework of the US-China trade war," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 12(1), pp.4-23. https://doi.org/10.1177/0974910119896636
  43. White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, 2018, How China's Economic Aggression Threatens the Technologies and Intellectual Property of the United States and the World. Washington, DC: White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.
  44. World Bank, 2018, How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs?, Washington, DC: World Bank.
  45. Wu, J., Wood, J., Oh, K. and Jang, H., 2021, "Evaluating the cumulative impact of the US-China trade war along global value chains," World Economy https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13125
  46. Xinhua, 2019, China Focus: Belt and Road Initiative makes solid progress, embraces brighter future: report, Retrieved from http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-04/23/c_137999264.htm
  47. Xinhua, 2021, Int'l community casts vote of confidence in Belt and Road, Retrieved from http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-05/12/c_139941616.htm
  48. Yu, L., Zhao, D., Niu, H. and Lu, F., 2020, "Does the belt and road initiative expand China's export potential to countries along the belt and road?," China Economic Review 60, 101419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101419
  49. Zeng, L., 2016, "Conceptual analysis of China's belt and road initiative: a road towards a regional community of common destiny," Chinese Journal of International Law 15(3), pp.517-541. https://doi.org/10.1093/chinesejil/jmw021
  50. Zhai, F., 2018, "China's belt and road initiative: a preliminary quantitative assessment," Journal of Asian Economics 55, pp.84-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.006