무역학회지 (Korea Trade Review)

한국무역학회 (Korea Trade Research Association)
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미중 무역전쟁과 게임이론: 협상력 비대칭 상황에서의 협조적 균형 가능성

US-China Trade War and Game Theory in Asymmetric Bargaining Power

  • 김홍률 (동서대학교 국제통상학과)
  • Kim, Hong-Youl (Department of International Trade, Dongseo University)
  • 투고 : 2019.05.30
  • 심사 : 2019.06.30
  • 발행 : 2019.06.30
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초록

This study applies diverse game theories to the US-China Trade War. The US-China Trade War can be analyzed as a game situation because the strategic decision-making process to maximize one's profit while considering the reaction of the other party is a game situation. However, related research suffered from some mistakes in applying the US-China Trade War as it is to classic game theory, because while the prisoners dilemma is based on the situation of No Communication, No Trust, No Cooperation, the US-China Trade War has a precondition different from that of prisoners dilemma, since it mutually communicates information and negotiation is repeated several times in a cooperative situation. The result of the trade negotiation will likely end as 'cooperate-cooperate'. Further, considering trade volume, trade interdependence, bargaining power based on economy, and the scale of damage caused by the Trade War, the US-China Trade War is progressing with the bargaining power of the US being higher than that of China. Since the current US-China Trade War is in an asymmetrical situation under the dominant bargaining power of the US, it is likely to reach 'US defect-China cooperative' in the long run.

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참고문헌

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