• Title/Summary/Keyword: time lag parameter

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A Comparative Study on the Forecasting Accuracy of Econometric Models :Domestic Total Freight Volume in South Korea (계량경제모형간 국내 총화물물동량 예측정확도 비교 연구)

  • Chung, Sung Hwan;Kang, Kyung Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2015
  • This study compares the forecasting accuracy of five econometric models on domestic total freight volume in South Korea. Applied five models are as follows: Ordinary Least Square model, Partial Adjustment model, Reduced Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, Vector Autoregressive model, Time Varying Parameter model. Estimating models and forecasting are carried out based on annual data of domestic freight volume and an index of industrial production during 1970~2011. 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year ahead forecasting performance of five models was compared using the recursive forecasting method. Additionally, two forecasting periods were set to compare forecasting accuracy according to the size of future volatility. As a result, the Time Varying Parameter model showed the best accuracy for forecasting periods having fluctuations, whereas the Vector Autoregressive model showed better performance for forecasting periods with gradual changes.

Reliability evaluations of time of concentration using artificial neural network model -focusing on Oncheoncheon basin- (인공신경망 모형을 이용한 도달시간의 신뢰성 평가 -온천천 유역을 대상으로-)

  • Yoon, Euihyeok;Park, Jongbin;Lee, Jaehyuk;Shin, Hyunsuk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2018
  • For the stream management, time of concentration is one of the important factors. In particular, as the requirement about various application of the stream increased, accuracy assessment of concentration time in the stream as waterfront area is extremely important for securing evacuation at the flood. the past studies for the assessment of concentration time, however, were only performed on the single hydrological event in the complex basin of natural streams. The development of a assessment methods for the concentration time on the complex hydrological event in a single watershed of urban streams is insufficient. Therefore, we estimated the concentration time using the rainfall- runoff data for the past 10 years (2006~2015) for the Oncheon stream, the representative stream of the Busan, where frequent flood were taken place by heavy rains, in addition, reviewed the reliability using artificial neural network method based on Matlab. We classified a total of 254 rainfalls events based on over unrained 12 hours. Based on the classification, we estimated 6 parameters (total precipitation, total runoff, peak precipitation/ total precipitation, lag time, time of concentration) to utilize for the training and validation of artificial neural network model. Consequently, correlation of the parameter, which was utilized for the training and the input parameter for the predict and verification were 0.807 and 0.728, respectively. Based on the results, we predict that it can be utilized to estimate concentration time and analyze reliability of urban stream.

Derivation of the Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Based on the Watershed Characteristics (유역특성에 의한 합성단위도의 유도에 관한 연구)

  • 서승덕
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.3642-3654
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    • 1975
  • The purpose of this thesis is to derive a unit hydrograph which may be applied to the ungaged watershed area from the relations between directly measurable unitgraph properties such as peak discharge(qp), time to peak discharge (Tp), and lag time (Lg) and watershed characteristics such as river length(L) from the given station to the upstream limits of the watershed area in km, river length from station to centroid of gravity of the watershed area in km (Lca), and main stream slope in meter per km (S). Other procedure based on routing a time-area diagram through catchment storage named Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(IUH). Dimensionless unitgraph also analysed in brief. The basic data (1969 to 1973) used in these studies are 9 recording level gages and rating curves, 41 rain gages and pluviographs, and 40 observed unitgraphs through the 9 sub watersheds in Nak Oong River basin. The results summarized in these studies are as follows; 1. Time in hour from start of rise to peak rate (Tp) generally occured at the position of 0.3Tb (time base of hydrograph) with some indication of higher values for larger watershed. The base flow is comparelatively higher than the other small watershed area. 2. Te losses from rainfall were divided into initial loss and continuing loss. Initial loss may be defined as that portion of storm rainfall which is intercepted by vegetation, held in deppression storage or infiltrated at a high rate early in the storm and continuing loss is defined as the loss which continues at a constant rate throughout the duration of the storm after the initial loss has been satisfied. Tis continuing loss approximates the nearly constant rate of infiltration (${\Phi}$-index method). The loss rate from this analysis was estimated 50 Per cent to the rainfall excess approximately during the surface runoff occured. 3. Stream slope seems approximate, as is usual, to consider the mainstreamonly, not giving any specific consideration to tributary. It is desirable to develop a single measure of slope that is representative of the who1e stream. The mean slope of channel increment in 1 meter per 200 meters and 1 meter per 1400 meters were defined at Gazang and Jindong respectively. It is considered that the slopes are low slightly in the light of other river studies. Flood concentration rate might slightly be low in the Nak Dong river basin. 4. It found that the watershed lag (Lg, hrs) could be expressed by Lg=0.253 (L.Lca)0.4171 The product L.Lca is a measure of the size and shape of the watershed. For the logarithms, the correlation coefficient for Lg was 0.97 which defined that Lg is closely related with the watershed characteristics, L and Lca. 5. Expression for basin might be expected to take form containing theslope as {{{{ { L}_{g }=0.545 {( { L. { L}_{ca } } over { SQRT {s} } ) }^{0.346 } }}}} For the logarithms, the correlation coefficient for Lg was 0.97 which defined that Lg is closely related with the basin characteristics too. It should be needed to take care of analysis which relating to the mean slopes 6. Peak discharge per unit area of unitgraph for standard duration tr, ㎥/sec/$\textrm{km}^2$, was given by qp=10-0.52-0.0184Lg with a indication of lower values for watershed contrary to the higher lag time. For the logarithms, the correlation coefficient qp was 0.998 which defined high sign ificance. The peak discharge of the unitgraph for an area could therefore be expected to take the from Qp=qp. A(㎥/sec). 7. Using the unitgraph parameter Lg, the base length of the unitgraph, in days, was adopted as {{{{ {T}_{b } =0.73+2.073( { { L}_{g } } over {24 } )}}}} with high significant correlation coefficient, 0.92. The constant of the above equation are fixed by the procedure used to separate base flow from direct runoff. 8. The width W75 of the unitgraph at discharge equal to 75 per cent of the peak discharge, in hours and the width W50 at discharge equal to 50 Per cent of the peak discharge in hours, can be estimated from {{{{ { W}_{75 }= { 1.61} over { { q}_{b } ^{1.05 } } }}}} and {{{{ { W}_{50 }= { 2.5} over { { q}_{b } ^{1.05 } } }}}} respectively. This provides supplementary guide for sketching the unitgraph. 9. Above equations define the three factors necessary to construct the unitgraph for duration tr. For the duration tR, the lag is LgR=Lg+0.2(tR-tr) and this modified lag, LgRis used in qp and Tb It the tr happens to be equal to or close to tR, further assume qpR=qp. 10. Triangular hydrograph is a dimensionless unitgraph prepared from the 40 unitgraphs. The equation is shown as {{{{ { q}_{p } = { K.A.Q} over { { T}_{p } } }}}} or {{{{ { q}_{p } = { 0.21A.Q} over { { T}_{p } } }}}} The constant 0.21 is defined to Nak Dong River basin. 11. The base length of the time-area diagram for the IUH routing is {{{{C=0.9 {( { L. { L}_{ca } } over { SQRT { s} } ) }^{1/3 } }}}}. Correlation coefficient for C was 0.983 which defined a high significance. The base length of the T-AD was set to equal the time from the midpoint of rain fall excess to the point of contraflexure. The constant K, derived in this studies is K=8.32+0.0213 {{{{ { L} over { SQRT { s} } }}}} with correlation coefficient, 0.964. 12. In the light of the results analysed in these studies, average errors in the peak discharge of the Synthetic unitgraph, Triangular unitgraph, and IUH were estimated as 2.2, 7.7 and 6.4 per cent respectively to the peak of observed average unitgraph. Each ordinate of the Synthetic unitgraph was approached closely to the observed one.

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A Basic Study on the Attachment Process of Lightning Leader to Ground (낙뢰 리더의 대지부착과정에 대한 기초적 연구)

  • Yoo, Yang-Woo;Kim, Seung-Min;Kim, You-Ha;Lee, Bok-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.28 no.10
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    • pp.82-88
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents the results of model tests for the attachment process of lightning leader to ground which is one of poorly understood processes of cloud-to-ground lightning discharges. In order to simulate the attachment process of lightning leader to ground, we investigated the discharge characteristics of air gap between the tip of needle-shaped electrode and the soil surface as a parameter of moisture content in soils when the positive and negative $1.2/50{\mu}s$ lightning impulse voltages are applied. The breakdown voltage and the discharge light were observed. As a result, the attachment processes of lightning leader to ground are strongly dependent on the grain size and the moisture content of soils. The time to breakdown was shortened with increasing the magnitude of incident impulse voltages. The delay time from application of the highest voltage to breakdown in sand is shortened with increasing the moisture content. The delay time from application of the voltage to breakdown in gravel varied from about $0.5{\mu}s$ to several ${\mu}s$. As the moisture content in soil increases, the breakdown voltages are decreased and the breakdown voltage versus time to breakdown curves are shifted toward the lower side. The results obtained in this work are similar to those for non-uniform air gap stressed by lightning impulse voltages.

Optimal Path Planning for UAVs under Multiple Ground Threats (다수 위협에 대한 무인항공기 최적 경로 계획)

  • Kim, Bu-Seong;Bang, Hyo-Chung;Yu, Chang-Gyeong;Jeong, Eul-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.74-80
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    • 2006
  • This paper addresses the trajectory optimization of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) under multiple ground threats like enemy's anti-air radar sites. The power of radar signal reflected by the vehicle and the flight time are considered in the performance cost to be minimized. The bank angle is regarded as control input for a 1st-order lag vehicle, and input parameter optimization method based on Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) is used for trajectory optimization. The proposed path planning method provides more practical trajectories with enhanced survivability than those of Voronoi diagram method.

R&D Investment Effect through Patent on IT firms using Panel Structural Equations (패널구조방정식을 활용한 IT기업의 R&D투자효과 연구: 특허 매개효과 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jongho;Kim, Tae Hwan;Jung, Woo-Jin
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.137-150
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes not only the direct impact of R&D investment on corporate growth for 578 private firms in 2007-2016, but also whether corporate innovation activities play a role as a mediating parameter between R&D investment and corporate growth. For this purpose, we classify companies into IT and non-IT companies and measure the mediating effect by dividing innovation activities into the number of registered patents, applied patents, and sum of them. In addition, this study is based on both the systemGMM which is considered to be effective in solving the endogenous problems caused by the cross-sectional analysis in previous studies and ML-SEM which is a new method recently, and then compares two results. According to the empirical results, innovation activities has a role as partly mediating parameter on sales growth in non-IT companies. On the other hands, in IT companies, the increase in R&D investment leads to a decrease in sales of the company, and the increase in innovation activities increases the sales of the company. However, it was confirmed that IT companies also had positive effects by adjusting the lag of the R&D. In other words, this suggests that securing patents is more important than R&D investment for direct sales growth of IT companies. It is also evidence that immediate introduction of technology is necessary to respond to the speed of technological change since the cycle time of technologies of the IT field is relatively shorter compared to that of other fields.

A Methodology for the Estimation of Design Flood of a Small Watershed (소하천유역(小河川流域)의 계획홍수량(計劃洪水量) 산정방법(算定方法)의 개발(開發))

  • Yoon, Yong Nam;Ahn, Tae Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.103-112
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    • 1984
  • This study is an effort to develop a series of empirical procedure for the determination of design flood for a small watershed based on the unit hydrograph theory. It is shown that a flood discharge of a watershed with a specific return period can be expressed as a product of its watershed area, rainfall factor, runoff factor and flood peak reduction factor. Since the procedures for the determination of rainfall factor and runoff factor were already developed in the previous study (13) a series of step-by-step procedure is devised to empirically determine the flood peak reduction factor in the present study. Using the methodology developed herein the 50-year design flood, which is of concern in the drainage of agricultural lands, is estimated for a watershed on upper Kyungan River and compared with the design floods by the existing methods now in use. The flood peak reduction factor was correlated with the dimensionless parameter consisted of the rainfall duration divided by the basin lag time, which was computed from the derived unit hydrographs by the method of moment. The unit hydrographs of various durations were synthesized by the method of build up and S-curve. A multiple correlation was also made between the basin lag time and the physiographic parameters of the watershed, i.e., the stream length and the average stream slope.

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Soil Evaporation Evaluation Using Soil Moisture Measurements at a Hillslope on a Mountainous Forest (산림 사면에서 실측 토양수분을 이용한 토양증발평가)

  • Gwak, Yong-Seok;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.557-568
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    • 2012
  • In order to understand the hydrological processes on the mountainous forest, the configuration of soil evaporation (E) out of evapotranspiration (ET) is a challenging and important topic. In this study, we attempted to understand the soil evaporation process for a humid forest hillslope via measuring and analyzing soil moistures with a sampling interval in 2 hours at three locations for 10 days between May 22th and 31th 2009. Two methods were used to estimate soil evaporation in every 2hr; one is a method using soil moisture measurement ($E_{SM}$), the others methods are based on Penman equation (Penman (1948), Staple (1974), Konukcu (2007), Equilibrium Penman ($E_{equili}$)). As a critical parameter in determining $E_{SM}$, the dry surface layer (DSL), was estimated using energy balance equation. The accumulated soil evaporation ($E_{SM}$) of A, B, C points were estimated as 2.09, 1.08 and 2.88 mm, respectively. The estimated evaporation of Penman (1948), Staple (1974), Konukcu (2007), $E_{equili}$ were 4.91, 8.80, 8.63 and 3.28 mm. The proposed method with soil moisture measurement showed lower soil evaporations than the other conventional methods. The increasing soil temperature and interaction between soil and atmosphere due to existence of litter and DSL are considered as dominant factors for soil evaporation. The $E_{SM}$ has the apparent lag time between 2 and 4 hr compared with $E_{equili}$ and net radiation. The DSL and surface resistance ($r_s$) were increased as soil moisture was decreased for in this study. The estimated DSL through the temporal distribution analysis of soil moisture and tension measurements was also similar to that of the energy balance relationship.

Estimating design floods for ungauged basins in the geum-river basin through regional flood frequency analysis using L-moments method (L-모멘트법을 이용한 지역홍수빈도분석을 통한 금강유역 미계측 유역의 설계홍수량 산정)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.8
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    • pp.645-656
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    • 2016
  • The study performed a regional flood frequency analysis and proposed a regression equation to estimate design floods corresponding to return periods for ungauged basins in Geum-river basin. Five preliminary tests were employed to investigate hydrological independence and homogeneity of streamflow data, i.e. the lag-one autocorrelation test, time homogeneity test, Grubbs-Beck outlier test, discordancy measure test ($D_i$), and regional homogeneity measure (H). The test results showed that streamflow data were time-independent, discordant and homogeneous within the basin. Using five probability distributions (generalized extreme value (GEV), three-parameter log-normal (LN-III), Pearson type 3 (P-III), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA)), comparative regional flood frequency analyses were carried out for the region. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram, average weighted distance (AWD) and goodness-of-fit statistics ($Z^{DIST}$), the GLO distribution was selected as the best fit model for Geum-river basin. Using the GLO, a regression equation was developed for estimating regional design floods, and validated by comparing the estimated and observed streamflows at the Ganggyeong station.

Estimation of Specific Yield Using Rainfall and Groundwater Levels at Shallow Groundwater Monitoring Sites (충적층 지하수 관측지점의 강우량 대비 지하수위 변동 자료를 활용한 비산출율 추정)

  • Kim, Gyoobum
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 2010
  • Specific yield is an essential parameter of the water table fluctuation method for recharge calculation. Specific yield is not easily estimated because of limited availability of aquifer test data and soil samples at National Groundwater Monitoring Stations in South Korea. The linear relationship between rainfall and water level rise was used to estimate the specific yields of aquifer for 34 shallow monitoring wells which were grouped into three clusters. In the case of Cluster-1 and Cluster-2, this method was not applicable because of low cross correlation between rainfall and water level rise and also a long lag time of water level rise to rainfall. However, the specific yields for 19 monitoring wells belonging to Cluster-3, which have relatively high cross correlation and short lag time, within 2 days after rainfall, range from 0.06 to 0.27 with mean value of 0.17. These values are within the general range for sand and gravel sediments and similar to those from aquifer test data. A detailed field survey is required to identify monitoring sites that are not greatly affected by pumping, stream flow, evapotranspiration, or delayed response of water levels to rainfall, because these factors may cause overestimation of specific yield estimates.