• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.39-46
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• 2018

Departure Manager (DMAN) is a tool to optimize the departure sequence and to suggest appropriate take-off time and off-block time of each departure aircraft to the air traffic controllers. To that end, Variable Taxi Time (VTT), which is time duration of the aircraft from the stand to the runway, should be estimated. In this paper, a study for development of VTT prediction algorithm based on machine learning techniques is presented. The factors affecting aircraft taxi speeds were identified through the analysis of historical traffic data on the airport surface. The prediction model suggested in this study consists of several sub-models that reflect different types of surface maneuvers based on the analysis result. The prediction performance of the proposed method was evaluated using the actual operational data.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2004년도 ICCAS
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• pp.652-657
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• 2004

As the real-time multimedia applications through Internet increase, the bandwidth available to TCP connections is oppressed by the UDP traffic, result in the performance of overall system is extremely deteriorated. Therefore, developing a new transmission protocol is necessary. The TCP-friendly algorithm is an example meeting this necessity. The TCP-friendly (TFRC) is an UDP-based protocol that controls the transmission rate based on the available round transmission time (RTT) and the packet loss rate (PLR). In the data transmission processing, transmission rate is determined based on the conditions of the previous transmission period. If the one-step ahead predicted values of the control factors are available, the performance will be improved significantly. This paper proposes a prediction model of transmission rate control factors that will be used for the transmission rate control, which improves the performance of the networks. The model developed through this research is predicting one-step ahead variables of RTT and PLR. A multiplayer perceptron neural network is used as the prediction model and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used for the training. The values of RTT and PLR were collected using TFRC protocol in the real system. The obtained prediction model is validated using new data set and the results show that the obtained model predicts the factors accurately.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2000년도 제15차 학술회의논문집
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• pp.524-524
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• 2000

We have been developing a method to build one-step-ahead prediction models for time series using genetic programming (GP). Our model building method consists of two stages. In the first stage, functional forms of the models are inherited from their parent models through crossover operation of GP. In the second stage, the parameters of the newborn model arc optimized based on an iterative method just like the back propagation. The proposed method has been applied to various kinds of time series problems. An application to the seismic ground motion was presented in the KACC'99, and since then the method has been improved in many aspects, for example, additions of new node functions, improvements of the node functions, and new exploitations of many kinds of mutation operators. The new ideas and trials enhance the ability to generate effective and complicated models and reduce CPU time. Today, we will present a couple of financial applications, espc:cially focusing on gold price prediction in Tokyo market.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.201-211
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• 2021

Purpose: This paper proposes a density adaptive grid algorithm for the k-NN regression model to reduce the computation time for large datasets without significant prediction accuracy loss. Methods: The proposed method utilizes the concept of the grid with centroid to reduce the number of reference data points so that the required computation time is much reduced. Since the grid generation process in this paper is based on quantiles of original variables, the proposed method can fully reflect the density information of the original reference data set. Results: Using five real-life datasets, the proposed k-NN regression model is compared with the original k-NN regression model. The results show that the proposed density adaptive grid-based k-NN regression model is superior to the original k-NN regression in terms of data reduction ratio and time efficiency ratio, and provides a similar prediction error if the appropriate number of grids is selected. Conclusion: The proposed density adaptive grid algorithm for the k-NN regression model is a simple and effective model which can help avoid a large loss of prediction accuracy with faster execution speed and fewer memory requirements during the testing phase.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.995-1006
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• 2011

A time series can be decomposed into simple components with a multiscale method. Empirical mode decomposition(EMD) is a recently invented multiscale method in Huang et al. (1998). It is natural to apply a classical prediction method such a vector autoregressive(AR) model to the obtained simple components instead of the original time series; in addition, a prediction procedure combining a classical prediction model to EMD and Hilbert spectrum is proposed in Kim et al. (2008). In this paper, we suggest to adopt principal component analysis(PCA) to the prediction procedure that enables the efficient selection of input variables among obtained components by EMD. We discuss the utility of adopting PCA in the prediction procedure based on EMD and Hilbert spectrum and analyze the daily worm account data by the proposed PCA adopted prediction method.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.39-57
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• 2021

Time series prediction is an area of great interest to many people. Algorithms for time series prediction are widely used in many fields such as stock price, temperature, energy and weather forecast; in addtion, classical models as well as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been actively developed. After introducing the attention mechanism to neural network models, many new models with improved performance have been developed; in addition, models using attention twice have also recently been proposed, resulting in further performance improvements. In this paper, we consider time series prediction by introducing attention twice to an RNN model. The proposed model is a method that introduces H-attention and T-attention for output value and time step information to select useful information. We conduct experiments on stock price, temperature and energy data and confirm that the proposed model outperforms existing models.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제40권3호
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• pp.283-290
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• 2014

In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.216-222
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to predict the performance of female weightlifters using time series analysis. Based on this purpose, a time series analysis was used to calculate the performance prediction model for women(58kg) among the domestic women weightlifters who participated in the Olympics. As a result of creating time series data based on 10 years of record and then evaluating the sequential charts of each athlete group, the female athletes' records did not show any seasonality or difference. In addition, after examining the independence of the data through the creation of a time series model, it was shown that the models produced conformed to the criteria for compliance and that there was no difference in the data, but there was a trend. Accordingly, Holt linear trend analysis of the exponential smoothing model was applied. As a result of deriving the prediction model of the athletes through this process, it was found that the women (58kg) who participated in the Olympics continued to improve within the range of 166.11kg to 184.1kg.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권5호
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• pp.1841-1851
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• 2018

For the safe and stable operation of the power system, accurate wind power prediction is of great significance. A wind power prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition and improved extreme learning machine is proposed in this paper. Firstly, wind power time series is decomposed into several components with different frequency by empirical mode decomposition, which can reduce the non-stationary of time series. The components after decomposing remove the long correlation and promote the different local characteristics of original wind power time series. Secondly, an improved extreme learning machine prediction model is introduced to overcome the sample data updating disadvantages of standard extreme learning machine. Different improved extreme learning machine prediction model of each component is established. Finally, the prediction value of each component is superimposed to obtain the final result. Compared with other prediction models, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has better prediction accuracy for wind power.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.1232-1245
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• 2021

In this study, prediction of product sales as they relate to changes in temperature is proposed. This model uses long short-term memory (LSTM), which has shown excellent performance for time series predictions. For verification of the proposed sales prediction model, the sales of short pants, flip-flop sandals, and winter outerwear are predicted based on changes in temperature and time series sales data for clothing products collected from 2015 to 2019 (a total of 1,865 days). The sales predictions using the proposed model show increases in the sale of shorts and flip-flops as the temperature rises (a pattern similar to actual sales), while the sale of winter outerwear increases as the temperature decreases.