• Title/Summary/Keyword: theoretical probability

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Effects of Duration and Time Distribution of Probability Rainfall on Paddy Fields Inundation (설계강우의 지속시간 및 시간분포에 따른 배수개선 농경지 침수 영향 분석)

  • Jun, Sang-Min;Kim, Kwi-Hoon;Lee, Hyunji;Kang, Ki-Ho;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Choi, Jin-Yong;Kang, Moon-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.2
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2022
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the effect of the duration and time distribution of probability rainfall on farmland inundation for the paddy fields in the drainage improvement project site. In this study, eight drainage improvement project sites were selected for inundation modeling. Hourly rainfall data were collected, and 20- and 30-year frequency probability rainfalls were estimated for 14 different durations. Probability rainfalls were distributed using Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) and Huff time distribution methods. Design floods were calculated for 48 hr and critical duration, and IDF time distribution and Huff time distribution were used for 48 hr duration and critical duration, respectively. Inundation modeling was carried out for each study district using 48 hr and critical duration rainfalls. The result showed that six of the eight districts had a larger flood discharge using the method of applying critical duration and Huff distribution. The results of inundation depth analysis showed similar trends to those of design flood calculations. However, the inundation durations showed different tendencies from the inundation depth. The IDF time distribution is a distribution in which most of the rainfall is concentrated at the beginning of rainfall, and the theoretical background is unclear. It is considered desirable to apply critical duration and Huff time distribution to agricultural production infrastructure design standards in consideration of uniformity with other design standards such as flood calculation standard guidelines.

Finite Element Analysis of Deformation Behavior During ECAP for an Aluminum Alloy Composite Model containing a SiC Particle and Porosities (강화상과 기공이 포함된 금속기지 복합재 모델의 ECAP 거동에 대한 유한요소해석)

  • Lee, Sung-Chul;Han, Sang-Yul;Kim, Ki-Tae;Hwang, Sang-Moo;Huh, Lyun-Min;Chung, Hyung-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.739-746
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    • 2004
  • The plastic deformation behavior of an aluminum alloy containing a particle and porosities was investigated at room temperature during equal channel angular pressing (ECAP). Finite element analysis by using ABAQUS shows that ECAP is a useful tool for eliminating residual porosity in the specimen, and more effective under friction condition. The simulation, however, shows considerably low density distributions for matrix near a particle at which many defects may occur during severe deformation. Finite element results of effective strains and deformed shapes for matrix with a particle were compared with theoretical calculations under simple shear stress. Also, based on the distribution of the maximum principal stress in the specimen, Weibull fracture probability was obtained for particle sizes and particle-coating layer materials. The probability was useful to predict the trend of more susceptible failure of a brittle coating layer than a particle without an interphase in metal matrix composites.

Characteristics of Heavy Vehicles Using Expressway Networks Based on Weigh-in-motion Data (WIM 데이터를 이용한 고속도로 중차량 특성 분석)

  • Gil, Heungbae;Kang, Sang Gyu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.1731-1740
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    • 2013
  • The design life and durability of the bridges are strongly affected by the Gross Vehicle Weight(GVW) of heavyweight trucks. The Weigh-In-Motion(WIM) systems are typically used to collect information on truck total weight and speed. The statistical analysis of the GVW measured using High Speed WIM systems showed that most of heavy vehicles were from Vehicle Type 7, 10, and 12. The analysis was also carried out to determine goodness of fit with theoretical probability distributions. The normal distribution was shown to best describe the overall distribution of GVW. The top 10% of the GVW appeared to best fit by the Weibull 3 probability distribution.

Construction of Probability Identification Matrix and Selective Medium for Acidophilic Actinomycetes Using Numerical Classification Data

  • Seong, Chi-Nam;Park, Seok-Kyu;Michael Goodfellow;Kim, Seung-Bum;Hah, Yung-Chil
    • Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 1995
  • A probability identification matrix of acidophilic Streptomyces was constructed. The phenetic data of the strains were derived from numerical classification described by Seong et al. The minimum number of diagnostic characters was determined using computer programs for calculation of different separation indices. The resulting matrix consisted of 25 clusters versus 53 characters. Theoretical evaluation of this matrix was achieved by estimating the chuster overlap and the identification scores for the Hypothetical Median Organisms (HMO) and for the representatives of each cluster. Cluster overlap was found to be relatively small. Identification scores for the HMO and the randomly selected representatives of each cluster were satisfactory. The matrix was assessed practically by applying the matrix to the identification of unknown isolates. Of the unknown isolates, 71.9% were clearly identified to one of eight clusters. The numerical classification data was also used to design a selective isolation medium for antibiotic-producing organisms. Four chemical substances including 2 antibiotics were determined by the DLACHAR program as diagnostic for the isolation of target organisms which have antimicrobial activity against Micrococcus luteus. It was possible to detect the increased rate of selective isolation on the synthesized medium. Theresults show that the numerical phenetic data can be applied to a variety of purposes, such as construction of identification matrix and selective isolation medium for acidophilic antinomycetes.

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Effects of Premixed Flame on Turbulence Properties in a Pilot Flame Stabilized Jet Burner (파일럿 안정화 제트버너의 예혼합 화염이 미연가스 영역 난류특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Dae Hoon;Kwon, Sejin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.1172-1177
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    • 1999
  • Comparisons of measured turbulence properties in the unburned gas region of turbulent premixed flame stabilized by pilot flame, in cases of combusting and non-combusting flow conditions, are presented. Methane-air premixed jet at fuel equivalence ratio of 0.6 and 1.0 and Reynolds number of 7,000 was diagnosed using two-color laser velocimeter to obtain turbulence statistics. Same set of measurements was repeated at 21 locations within the unburned gas region of both combusting and non-combusting conditions. Velocity data were analyzed to evaluate the spatial distribution of turbulence properties including Reynolds stress, probability densities, joint probability densities and auto correlations. Contrary to assumptions of current theoretical models, significant influence of flame was observed in every property that was studied in the present investigation. The effective viscosity increased ten-fold when flame was on from cold flow values. The effect of mixing on joint probability as well as in turbulence intensity was suppressed by the flame. The measurements suggest that common assumptions of premixed flame model may result in sizable error in prediction of flame length and temperature distribution in near-field.

Examination of experimental errors in Scanlan derivatives of a closed-box bridge deck

  • Rizzo, Fabio;Caracoglia, Luca
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.231-251
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    • 2018
  • The objective of the investigation is the analysis of wind-tunnel experimental errors, associated with the measurement of aeroelastic coefficients of bridge decks (Scanlan flutter derivatives). A two-degree-of-freedom experimental apparatus is used for the measurement of flutter derivatives. A section model of a closed-box bridge deck is considered in this investigation. Identification is based on free-vibration aeroelastic tests and the Iterative Least Squares method. Experimental error investigation is carried out by repeating the measurements and acquisitions thirty times for each wind tunnel speed and configuration of the model. This operational procedure is proposed for analyzing the experimental variability of flutter derivatives. Several statistical quantities are examined; these quantities include the standard deviation and the empirical probability density function of the flutter derivatives at each wind speed. Moreover, the critical flutter speed of the setup is evaluated according to standard flutter theory by accounting for experimental variability. Since the probability distribution of flutter derivatives and critical flutter speed does not seem to obey a standard theoretical model, polynomial chaos expansion is proposed and used to represent the experimental variability.

Modeling and Design of a Distributed Detection System Based on Active Sonar Sensor Networks (능동 소나망 분산탐지 체계의 모델링 및 설계)

  • Choi, Won-Yong;Kim, Song-Geun;Hong, Sun-Mog
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.123-131
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, modeling and design of a distributed detection system are considered for an active sonar sensor network. The sensor network has a parallel configuration and it consists of a fusion center and a set of receiver nodes. A system with two receiver nodes is considered to investigate a theoretical aspect of design. To be specific, AND rule and OR rule are considered as the fusion rules of the sensor network. For the fusion rules, it is shown that a threshold rule of each sensor node has uniformly most powerful properties. Optimum threshold for each sensor is obtained that maximizes the probability of detection given probability of false alarm. Numerical experiments were also performed to investigate the detection characteristics of a distributed detection system with multiple sensor nodes. The experimental results show how signal strength, false alarm probability, and the distance between nodes in a sensor field affect the system detection performances.

A study on unequal probability sampling over two successive occasions in time series (시계열 계속 표본조사에서 불균등확률 추출법 연구)

  • 박홍래;이계오
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.145-162
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    • 1993
  • We review sampling schemes on successive occasions with partial replacement of units and propose a Rao-Hartley-Cochran(RHC) type's sampling scheme over two successive occasions with probability proportionate to observations on the previous occasion. For comparison of the reviewed and proposed sampling schemes, optimal estimator of population mean on second occasion and its variance are derived. The relative efficiency of the proposed sampling scheme is compared with other equal and unequal probability sampling scheme by theoretical and numerical simulation study. For simulation study, three artificial populations are generated by a time series model. It is observed that RHC type's sampling scheme has small variance and deviation in general.

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A Study on the Randomized Response Technique by PPS Sampling (확률비례추출법에 의한 확률화응답기법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Gi-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.69-80
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we make an effort to find a method to acquire sensitive information when sensitive populations are consisted of several clusters that vary in size. We suggest and systemize the theoretical validity for applying RRT(Randomized Response Technique) to PPS(Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method and derive the estimate and it's variance of the proportion of sensitive characteristic of population by using the suggested method. We compare the efficiency of the suggested technique by two-stage equal probability sampling. We examine practical aspects of the suggested method of RRT by PPS sampling through field survey.

Finite Element Analysis for Behavior of Aluminum Alloy Embedding a Particle under Equal Channel Angular Pressing (ECAP 공정시 강화상이 첨가된 금속기지 거동에 대한 유한요소해석)

  • Lee, S.C.;Ha, S.R.;Kim, K.T.;Chung, H.S.
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.1157-1162
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    • 2003
  • Behavior of aluminum alloy embedding a particle was investigated at room temperature under ECAP. Finite element analysis by using ABAQUS shows that ECAP is a useful tool for eliminating residual porosity in the specimen, and much more effective under friction condition. The simulation, however, shows considerably low density distributions for matrix near a particle at which rich defects may occur during severe deformation. Finite element results of effective strains and deformed shapes for matrix with a particle were compared with theoretical calculations under simple shear stress. Also, based on the distribution of the maximum principal stress in the specimen, Weibull fracture probability was obtained for particle sizes and particle-coating layer materials. The probability was useful to predict the trend of more susceptible failure of a brittle coating layer than a particle without an interphase in metal matrix composites.

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