• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제41권4호
• /
• pp.291-297
• /
• 2017

신뢰성 해석은 설계변수의 공차나 환경변수 및 재료 물성치의 불확실성으로 인해 발생하는 제품성능의 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 제품의 신뢰도를 평가하는 기법이다. 기존의 많은 신뢰성 해석 기법은 성능의 신뢰도를 독립적으로 계산한다. 그러나 실제 공학 문제에서 시스템의 성능은 상관관계를 가질 수 있으며 이로 인해 전체 시스템의 신뢰도와 성능의 신뢰도 사이에 차이가 발생한다. 본 연구에서는 코플라를 이용하여 시스템에서 상관관계가 있는 성능의 결합확률밀도함수를 추정하고 이를 이용하여 시스템의 신뢰도를 평가하는 시스템 신뢰성 해석 기법을 제안한다. 수학예제를 통하여 제안하는 기법의 정확성을 검증하고 트러스 구조물에 시스템 신뢰성 해석 기법을 적용하여 제안하는 기법의 유용성을 확인한다.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
• /
• 제19권1_2호
• /
• pp.439-445
• /
• 2005

This paper is to investigate the approximate confidence limits of the reliability performances (such as failure rate, reliability function and average life) for a cold standby series system. The Bayesian approximate upper confidence limit of failure rate is obtained firstly, and next Bayesian approximate lower confidence limits for reliability function and average life are presented. The expressions for calculating Bayesian lower confidence limits of the reliability function and average life are also obtained, and an illustrative example is examined numerically by means of the Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, the accuracy of confidence limits is discussed.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
• /
• 제10권3호
• /
• pp.81-87
• /
• 2008

The reliability prediction and evaluation for general electronic components are required to guarantee in quality and in efficiency. Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. In this study reliability prediction of electronic components, that is the interface card, which is used in the CNC(Computerized Numerical Controller) of machine tools, was carried out using PRISM reliability prediction specification. Reliability performances such as MTBF(Mean Time Between Failure), failure rate and reliability were obtained, and the variation of failure rate for electronic components according to temperature change was predicted. The results obtained from this study are useful information to consider a counter plan for weak components before they are used.

• International Journal of Automotive Technology
• /
• 제6권3호
• /
• pp.235-242
• /
• 2005

This study introduces the Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) to enhance the kinematic and compliance (K & C) characteristics of automotive suspension system. In previous studies, the deterministic optimization has been performed to enhance the K & C characteristics. Unfortunately, uncertainties in the real world have not been considered in the deterministic optimization. In the design of suspension system, design variables with the uncertainties, such as the bushing stiffness, have a great influence on the variation of the suspension performances. There is a need to quantify these uncertainties and to apply the RBDO to obtain the design, satisfying the target reliability level. In this research, design variables including uncertainties are dealt as random variables and reliability of the suspension performances, which are related the K & C characteristics, are quantified and the RBDO is performed. The RBD-optimum is compared with the deterministic optimum to verify the enhancement in reliability. Thus, the reliability of the suspension performances is estimated and the RBD-optimum, satisfying the target reliability level, is determined.

• 한국기계가공학회지
• /
• 제19권12호
• /
• pp.70-79
• /
• 2020

This paper describes a comparative study of characteristics of probabilistic design using various reliability analysis methods in the structure design of an automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of the main structural member were considered to be random variables, including the uncertainty of corrosion, which would be an inevitable hazard in the work environment of the automatic salt collector. Probabilistic performance functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector structure. First-order reliability method, second-order reliability method, mean value reliability method, and adaptive importance sampling method were applied during the reliability analyses. The probabilistic design performances such as reliability probability and numerical costs based on the reliability analysis methods were compared to the Monte Carlo simulation results. The adaptive importance sampling method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic structure design of the automatic salt collector.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• 제7권2호
• /
• pp.111-125
• /
• 2006

This paper introduces different vectors of the reliability equivalence factors of a series system consists of n independent and nonidentical components. The failure rates of the system components are assumed to be constant. The reliability function and mean time to failure are used as performances to derive the reliability equivalences of the system. The results presented here generalize those available in the literatures. Numerical study is given to explain how one can utilize the theoretical results obtained.

• 한국해양공학회지
• /
• 제34권5호
• /
• pp.316-324
• /
• 2020

This paper presents comparative studies of reliability analysis and meta-modeling using the sampling method of Monte Carlo simulation for the structure design of an automatic ocean salt collector (AOSC). The thickness sizing variables of structure members are considered as random variables. Probabilistic performance functions are selected from strength performances evaluated via the finite element analysis of an AOSC. The sampling methods used in the comparative studies are simple random sampling and Sobol sequences with varied numbers of sampling. Approximation methods such as the Kriging model is applied to the meta-model generation. Reliability performances such as the probability failure and distribution are compared based on the variation of the sampling method of Monte Carlo simulation. The meta-modeling accuracy is evaluated for the Kriging model generated from the Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol sequence results. It is discovered that the Sobol sequence method is applicable to not only to the reliability analysis for the structural design of marine equipment such as the AOSC, but also to Kriging meta-modeling owing to its high numerical efficiency.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제23권2호
• /
• pp.445-461
• /
• 1994

This paper deals with the problem of obtaining some Bayes estimators and Bayesian credible regions of a reliability function for the Rayleigh distribution. Using several priors for a reliability function some Bayes estimators and Bayes credible sets are proposed and studied under squared error loss and Harris loss. Also the performances and behaviors of the proposed Bayes estimators are examined via Monte Carlo simulations and some numericla examples are given.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제17권1호
• /
• pp.19-34
• /
• 1989

In this paper, we propose the Bayes estimators of the reliability for a system consisting of the left-truncated exponential components under the truncated normal distribution as a conjugate prior distribution and squared - error loss function on the series, parallel and k-out-of-m : G system. And we compare the proposed Bayes estimators of the system reliability each other in terms of MSE performances and stabilities by the Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제1권
• /
• pp.35-45
• /
• 1990

The problem of estimating the reliability using the Bayesian approach and the prior information about tile reliability of a lognormal distribution is considered. Some Bayes estimators are proposed and studied under the squared error loss and tile Harris loss. Also Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to examine the performances of the proposed estimators and results are provided in the tables.