• Title/Summary/Keyword: the estimation of policy

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Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovative Products Using the Bass Model at the Takeoff Stage: A Review of Literature from Subsistence Markets

  • Mitra, Suddhachit
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.141-161
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    • 2019
  • A considerable amount of research has been directed at subsistence markets in the recent past with the belief that these markets can be tapped profitably by marketers. Consequently, such markets have seen the launch of a number of innovative products. However, marketers of such forecasts need timely and accurate forecasts regarding the diffusion of their products. The Bass model has been widely used in marketing management to forecast diffusion of innovative products. Given the idiosyncrasies of subsistence markets, such forecasting requires an understanding of effective estimation techniques of the Bass model and their use in subsistence markets. This article reviews the literature to achieve this objective and find out gaps in research. A finding is that there is a lack of timely estimates of Bass model parameters for marketers to act on. Consequently, this article sets a research agenda that calls for timely forecasts at the takeoff stage using appropriate estimation techniques for the Bass model in the context of subsistence markets.

RFID Based Indoor Positioning System Using Event Filtering

  • Bok, Kyoungsoo;Yoo, Jaesoo
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 2017
  • Recently, location systems using RFID technology have been studied in indoor environments. However, the existing techniques require high computational cost to compute the location of a moving object because they compare the location proximity of all reference tags and objects. In this paper, we propose an RFID based location positioning scheme using event filtering, which reduces the computation cost of calculating the locations of moving objects while maintaining the accuracy of location estimation. In addition, we propose an incremental location update policy to reduce the location update cost for moving objects. We also compare the proposed scheme with one of the localization schemes, LANDMARC using a performance evaluation. As a result, the proposed scheme outperforms LANDMARC in terms of the computational cost of location estimation. The proposed scheme also reduces the cost of location update by using the RFID-based update policy.

The China's Exchange Rate Policy to Export Competition

  • Lee, Dong-Hae;Lee, Sang-Ki
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.5-10
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper was to analyze the Chinese government's announcement of the RMB's appreciation on July 1, 2010, and its aim was to ascertain whether the appreciation has affected Chinese export prices by empirically measuring the degree of the exchange rate pass-tough on those prices. Research design, data, and methodology - Using 73 HS trade categories with cross-industry and time-series data, the panel estimation of a fixed-effects model has been applied to measure the degree and stability of any exchange rate pass-through effects. The estimation results show that the export prices of most trade categories were affected by the exchange rate changes. The pass-through effect was generally small, at about -0.485, and statistically significant in most export prices. Results - The empirical results indicate that China would lose its advantage and competitiveness in export if the RMB were appreciated continuously and rapidly because its export goods would no longer operate under strong monopolistic competition. Conclusions - The implications for China's exchange rate policy suggest that it would be better for the RMB to appreciate slowly and gradually rather than radically. It is clear that it would be allow the capital free flow in Chinese overall economic interest to reduce the continuous appreciation pressure on the currency and pave the way for improvements in export distribution competitiveness.

A Class of Estimators for Population Variance in Two Occasion Rotation Patterns

  • Singh, G.N.;Priyanka, Priyanka;Prasad, Shakti;Singh, Sarjinder;Kim, Jong-Min
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.247-257
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    • 2013
  • A variety of practical problems can be addressed in the framework of rotation (successive) sampling. The present work presents a sample rotation pattern where sampling units are drawn on two successive occasions. The problem of estimation of population variance on current (second) occasion in two - occasion successive (rotation) sampling has been considered. A class of estimators has been proposed for population variance that includes many estimators as a particular case. Asymptotic properties of the proposed class of estimators are discussed. The proposed class of estimators is compared with the sample variance estimator when there is no matching from the previous occasion. Optimum replacement policy is discussed. Results are supported with the empirical means of comparison.

National Health Expenditure Account of Korea: Sources and Estimation Methods (국민의료비 계정에 관한 연구 - 자료원 및 추계방법을 중심으로-)

  • 정영호
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2002
  • National health expenditure account describes expenditure flows both public and private within the health sector. It describes the sources and uses and channels for all funds utilized in the health sector and is a basic requirement for optimal management of the allocation of health sector resources. Constructing a national health expenditure account should begin with sound estimates. This paper thoroughly examines the sources and discusses the estimation methods, and provides the national health expenditure account of Korea by function and source of funding category The national health expenditure account produced in this parer has, however, some drawbacks and followings are proposed fur enhancing the comprehensiveness and consistency of the account. First, comparable data un health related expenditures of local government and private sector should be produced because data sets on the sectors are very limited. Second, we need further study un overall scope and boundaries of health expenditure estimates in order to improve compatibility of other main aggregates.

Using Real Options Pricing to Value Public R&D Investment in the Deep Seabed Manganese Nodule Project

  • Choi, Hyo-Yeon;Kwak, Seung-Jun;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2016
  • This paper seeks to measure the monetary value of technical development in the deep seabed manganese nodule mining by applying the compound option model (COM). The COM is appropriate for the project in terms of its decision-making structure and embedded uncertainty. The estimation results show that the deep seabed mining project has more economic potential than shown by the previously obtained results from the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. In addition, it is reasonable to invest in the project taking the various uncertainty factors into consideration, because the ratio of the value to the cost of the project is far higher than one. This information can be utilized in national ocean policy decision-making.

A study on Estimation Optimum Farm Size for Selected Farming Items at the Year 2001 (2001년(年) 기준(基準) 적정영농(適正營農) 규모(規模) 추정(推定))

  • Shin, Dong-Wan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.261-271
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    • 1996
  • Korean government has pursued measure of promoting specialized full time farmers, one hundred fifty thousand by 2001, along with "New Agricultural Policy" begining since year 1993, so as to improve agricultural structure depressed by urbanization and industrialization and also under pressure for agricultural imports liberlization. Objective of the study was to estimate optimal farming size for selected cash crops and livestocks aimed at farm income of more than fifty million won at the year 2001. Estimated items were eighteen fann models of four area for cash crops and nine models of three kind livestocks. Optimal fann size was estimated from the data collected through ninety nine fann household survey for farming result in 1993. and developed computer model on changing farm size estimation related on price change. Those results is espected to utilize as basic reference for promoting specialized full time farmers proposed by the New Agricultural Policy.

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U.S. Monetary Policy and Investor Reactions: Korean Evidence (미국의 통화정책과 국내 주식 투자자의 반응)

  • Jongho Park
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The primary objective of this article is to investigate the impact of U.S. monetary policy on institutional / individual / foreign investor reactions in the Korean stock market. Design/methodology/approach - This study employs a high frequency event study methodology to identify U.S. monetary policy shocks and quantify the impact of identified shocks on investor reactions. The dependent variable in the regression model is net stock purchase, while the explanatory variables are U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated for the period 2000-2019, including 156 FOMC meetings. Findings - Foreign investors immediately sell stocks in response to contractionary U.S. monetary shocks. They do not, however, react to anticipated changes in monetary policy rates, confirming the rationality of foreign investors. Individual investors demonstrate the opposite response, indicating that a non-trivial proportion of individual investors are irrational. Research implications or Originality - This study adds to the current literature on the effect of U.S. monetary policy on the Korean stock market. This study demonstrates a heterogeneous response to U.S. monetary policy shocks, validating the rational investment behavior of foreign investors, while individual investors exhibit a certain degree of irrationality. Methodologically, this study adds to the literature by quantifying the impact of U.S. monetary policy employing a sharper identification method allowing a simple and consistent estimation.

Identification of the Movement of Underlying Asset in Real Option Analysis: Studies on Industrial Parametric Table (실물옵션 적용을 위한 산업별 기초자산 확률과정추정)

  • Lee, Jeong-Dong;Gang, A-Ri;Jeong, Jong-Uk
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2004.02a
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    • pp.222-245
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    • 2004
  • This paper has an intention of proposing useful parametric tables of each industry group within Korea. These parametric tables can be insightful criteria for those who are dealing with the exact valuation of company, technology or industry through Real Option Analysis (ROA) since the identification of the movement of underlying asset is the very first step to be done. To give the exact estimations of parameters and the most preferred model in each industry group, we cover topics on ROA, stochastic process, and parametric estimation method like Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). Additionally, specific industry groups, such as, Internet service group and mobile telecommunication service group defined independently in this paper are also examined in terms of its property of movement with the suggesting of the most fitting stochastic model.

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An Analysis of Consumer Preferences among Wireless LAN and Mobile Internet Services

  • Ahn, Ji-Woon;Lee, Jong-Su;Lee, Jeong-Dong;Kim, Tai-Yoo
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.205-215
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    • 2006
  • Wireless data communication (WDC) services are increasingly penetrating the market. The two main alternative WDC technologies are wireless LAN and mobile Internet. Services based on these technologies display differences in quality attributes such as terminal device, data transmission speed, pricing scheme and so on. How consumers choose between these two alternatives will be determined by their preferences regarding such quality attributes. In turn, their preferences will affect the evolution of WDC services and related technologies. This study employs a conjoint analysis of consumer valuations of quality attributes of wireless LAN and mobile Internet services. Respondents rate hypothetical service alternatives featuring various combinations of quality attributes. By estimating consumer willingness to pay for the attributes of WDC services, the authors predict the evolution of WDC services and related technologies along various quality dimensions, make a comparison with the results of a previous study, and draw policy implications for national-and company-level R&D strategies.

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