• Title/Summary/Keyword: the Probability of Purchase

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Approximate Calculation of Order Fill Rate under Purchase Dependence (구매종속성을 고려한 주문충족률의 근사적 계산)

  • Park, Changkyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2017
  • For the competitive business environment under purchase dependence, this paper proposes a new approximate calculation of order fill rate which is a probability of satisfying a customer order immediately using the existing inventory. Purchase dependence is different to demand dependence. Purchase dependence treats the purchase behavior of customers, while demand dependence considers demand correlation between items, between regions, or over time. Purchase dependence can be observed in such areas as marketing, manufacturing systems, and distribution systems. Traditional computational methods have a difficulty of the curse of dimensionality for the large cases, when deriving the stationary joint distribution which is utilized to calculate the order fill rate. In order to escape the curse of dimensionality and protect the solution from diverging for the large cases, we develop a greedy iterative search algorithm based on the Gauss-Seidel method. We show that the greedy iterative search algorithm is a dependable algorithm to derive the stationary joint distribution of on-hand inventories in the retailer system by conducting a comparison analysis of a greedy iterative search algorithm with the simulation. In addition, we present some managerial insights such as : (1) The upper bound of order fill rate can be calculated by the one-item pure system, while the lower bound can be provided by the pure system that consists of all items; (2) As the degree of purchase dependence declines while other conditions remain same, it is observed that the difference between the lower and upper bounds reduces, the order fill rate increases, and the order fill rate gets closer to the upper bound.

A Probabilistic Tracking Mechanism for Luxury Purchase Implemented by Hidden Markov Model, Bayesian Inference, Customer Satisfaction and Net Promoter Score (고객만족, NPS, Bayesian Inference 및 Hidden Markov Model로 구현하는 명품구매에 관한 확률적 추적 메카니즘)

  • Hwang, Sun Ju;Rhee, Jung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.79-94
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to specify a probabilistic tracking mechanism for customer luxury purchase implemented by hidden Markov model, Bayesian inference, customer satisfaction and net promoter score. In this paper, we have designed a probabilistic model based on customer's actual data containing purchase or non-purchase states by tracking the SPC chain : customer satisfaction -> customer referral -> purchase/non-purchase. By applying hidden Markov model and Viterbi algorithm to marketing theory, we have developed the statistical model related to probability theories and have found the best purchase pattern scenario from customer's purchase records.

The Strategies of Manufacturers and Retailers for Customer Acquisition and Retention Using Scanner Panel Data (스캐너 패널 데이터를 이용한 유통업체와 제조업체간의 고객확보 및 유지 전략에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-yon;Son, Jungmin
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.73-96
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    • 2011
  • Recent market saturation makes the local retailers consider an attempt to innovate the market with the retailer's brand. This is the retailers' efforts to expand the market control through the enhancement of private brands. As the competition among manufacturers extends to the competition between manufacturers and retailers, the marketing knowledges of manufacturers need to be diversified to the ones that can be applied to the manufacturers and retailers due to their bilateral competition. This research concentrates on the customer acquisition strategy (attack strategy) and customer retention strategy (defense strategy) in the place of both sides of manufacturers and retailers. Also this research targets to develop the differential marketing strategies for target market's National Brand(NB)/Private Brand(PB) purchase by analyzing individual customer's purchase probability on repurchase and switch-purchase of NB and PB. This study is based on the data of frequently consumed product, tomato ketchup on scanner panel from the ERIM data of University of Chicago, USA. This study compares and analyzes the NB and PB repurchases and switch-purchase of 4 types. The comparisons provide the informations that which factors should be managed for the attack strategy, the defense strategy, and the differential marketing strategies both for manufacturers and retailers. This research is expected to contribute on cumulating the industrial knowledges of retailers' and manufacturers' survival strategy, expecially focusing on the effect of marketing factors and consumer-characteristic factors.

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Promoting the Consumption of Electric Vehicles: an Empirical Study in Vietnam

  • Cuong NGUYEN;Thao TRAN;Khanh HA;Han PHAN
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Electronic vehicles (EV) consumption become more prevalent among Vietnamese consumers. This paper aims to empirically assess the determinants of EV purchase intention among Vietnamese consumers. The research findings are expected to promote the consumption of electric vehicles in Vietnam. Research design, data and methodology: The quantitative research approach employed the Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA). The sample size includes 301 respodents. Research design unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) and UTAUT2. The data collection process employ the non-probability sampling. Questionaire survey consists of 24 questions given to respondents via Google Form link. Data is processed by SPSS version 20 software. Results: The results proposed 04 determinants of the intention to buy electric vehicles: Government Support, Environmental Concern, Price Value, and Performance. Conclusions: Theorectical implications and managerial implications are also discussed to promote the consumption of electronic vehicles in Vietnam. Besides, the findings show that Price value, Environmental Concern and Performance positively affect the purchase intention of EV among Vietnamese consumers. Remarkably, Government Support is proven to be an insignificant factor in EV purchase intention. The call for further research rely on the role of government support in order to promote EV consumption in Vietnam and other emerging markets worldwide.

The Effects of Consumer Beliefs for Food Certifications on Purchasing Intention Biases for the Certified Agricultural Products - A Case Analysis based on Tofu - (인증농산물의 구매편향성에 관한 연구 - 두부를 사례로 -)

  • Park, Jeong-A;Jang, Young-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.952-961
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to examine the effects of consumer beliefs regarding three food certifications on their behavioral intention and the behavioral intention biases to purchase (purchasing intention biases) certified agricultural products as predicted by a subjective probability model. The food certifications used for this study are 'Organic food', 'Traceability system of food products,' and 'Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP)'. Tofu (bean curd) was selected as being representative of agricultural food products, for the purposes of this study. In 2016, we surveyed 243 consumers regarding the strength of their belief regarding their prior beliefs relative to each certification, as well as the strength of their intention to purchase certified tofu based on their belief strengths for this study. The study resulted in the following findings: Firstly, consumers hold more than two different prior beliefs for each of the three certifications included in this study. Consumers' prior beliefs regarding these certifications have an impact on their consideration as to whether they plan to buy those certified agricultural products. Secondly, consumers try to persuade themselves to ensure that their particular belief about the product's certification could lead to a purchasing decision regarding that agricultural product.

A Study on the Influences of Korean Consumer Characteristics and Propensity to Purchase in Brand Choice (한국소비자 특성과 구매성향이 브랜드 선택에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyung-Suk;Kim, Chur
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.321-339
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study to the analyze characteristics and purchasing activities of consumers by using the Multinomial Logit model, which is a well-known discrete selection model to explain and forecast consumers' selection activities(patterns). The study aims to determine the state of competition between National Brand and Private Band and how some demographic characters and marketing variables influence consumers' brand selections within the facial tissue market. Our analysis process includes reorganization of panel data(individuals' purchasing record at each point) to fit the purpose of our study as well as analysis of probability and influencing factors of consumers' brand selection at each point of purchases. The result showed that consumers at higher age and with higher income hold better probability to purchase National Brand. Likewise, locations also had considerable effect on selecting brand, and Private Brand was preferred in department store and discount stores. On the other hand, consumers loyal to National Brand reported higher probability to purchase if the product prices were higher while Private Brand buyers were more promoted the purchase under price discount.

Beamforming RFID Reader based Convenient Shopping System (빔 형성 RFID 리더기를 이용한 편리한 쇼핑 시스템)

  • Park, Byeong-Wook;Choe, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we present a switched beamforming RFID reader and propose a convenient shopping system using it. The smart gate with the switched beamforming RFID reader(s) improves tag detection probability, tag false alarm probability, automatic detection functionality of shopping system compared to existing RFID based systems. The proposed system consists of a smart gate to read and verify the tags within cart, a check-out counter to approve customer purchase, and a central server to manage inventory & delivery and to analyze customer purchase trend. The proposed shopping system is more practical, convenient, and cost-effective to A/S than existing RFID shopping systems.

Consumer response analysis to use-by date labeling system: Focused on willingness to accept

  • Jong Mun Kim;You Been Jo;Seung Hyun Han;Uhn-Soon Gim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.399-412
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    • 2024
  • This study aimed to analyze consumers' behaviors and reactions to the use-by date labeling system and provide policy implications for its efficient implementation, by utilizing 213 consumers data conducted via an Internet survey using the Google online form. We refer "pure consumption date" as the period that have passed sell-by date yet have not passed use-by date. Consumers' willingness to accept (WTA) for pure consumption date food was surveyed, which means the discount ratio of pure consumption date food compared to the original price by sell-by date. Setting the expected effects of use-by date labeling system as five: food waste reduction (waste), food purchasing cost reduction (cost), and international standardization (standard), etc., Tobit regression result showed waste had the greatest (negative) impact on consumer's WTA, while cost and standard had positive impact on consumer's WTA. The logistic regression result revealed that consumers trying to reduce grocery costs have higher probability to purchase use-by date labeling food, and further expect higher WTA. Also consumers valuing the importance of environmental protection or food quality are more likely to purchase use-by date food. Conversely consumers valuing food safety importance tend to have negative impact on purchasing use-by date food, hence expect higher WTA. It is noteworthy that consumers valuing the importance of promoting the use-by date labeling system have significantly higher probability of purchasing use-by date food. Additionally, consumers' WTA averaged 54.3%, implying that consumers are willing to purchase use-by date food when it is discounted more than 54.3% from the original price, where women expect higher WTA, the aged over 60 expect higher WTA, furthermore single-parent households expect 21.3% higher than the average WTA. However, old-aged, unmarried women, higher educated and higher income groups were negative in purchasing use-by date food. These results suggest that customized sales policy and effective promotion strategies reflecting socio-demographic characteristics of consumers would be necessary to achieve effective implementation of the newly introduced system.

Analysis of Loot Box System in Overwatch (오버워치 루트 박스 시스템 분석)

  • Han, Sukhee
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzes the system of Loot Box in Overwatch, FPS genre game produced by an American company Blizzard. Currently, one of the most controversial issues in the recent industry is "Probability-Type Item" that game users purchase high-end game items as a form of lottery. As this study examines a foreign case of Loot Box that is similar to Probability-Type Item, it would show how it is constructed and does legal approaches. Throughout this, it not only analyzes pros and cons of the Loot Box system, but also provides thought-provoking messages for the issue of the Probability-Type Item.

The Dynamic Research of Mobile and PC Online Media Visit Activities Effects on The E-Commerce Site Visit (모바일, PC온라인 매체 방문 행동이 쇼핑 사이트 방문에 미치는 영향에 대한 동태적 연구)

  • Lee, Dong Il;Kim, Hyun Gyo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.85-95
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    • 2014
  • In the e-commerce, the conversion into the multi-media is the important issue. According to the research by Nielsen Korea, the 83% of customers who purchase the products in the e-commerce utilize multi-channel to buy the products such as mobile and online [3]. Thus, to effectively implement online advertising, marketers should understand the customers' path [15] in the multi-channel. The study of the multi-site activities plays an important role to predict customers' purchase [28]. To explain the e-commerce site visit activities of customers, we have developed research model in terms of the online advertising. This research model is based on the study of Moe and Fader [23]. There are two types of composition in the research model. First, general site visit as an exploratory search have net effect on the shopping site visit because customers could acquire or develop information on the e-commerce site via online advertising. Secondly, the e-commerce site visit as a goal-directed search cause threshold of the e-commerce site visit because customers could achieve their goal. When the threshold is increased, the probability of a shopping site visit is decreased and vice versa. Thus, we have investigated the impact of customers' previous visit activities (general site visit and shopping site visit) on the next e-commerce site visit in terms of dynamic view. Research data was provided by Cheil World Wide. This panel data include mobile and online log data of panelists from Jan. 2013 to March 2013. As the results, the customers' e-commerce site visit on the online media would decrease the probability of e-commerce site visit because these visit activities increase the threshold of e-commerce site visit. This result is similar with the previous study [23]. Otherwise, since e-commerce site visit on the mobile media decrease the threshold, the customers' probability of e-commerce site visit would increase In summary, the site visit activities on the mobile could improve the probability of e-commerce site visits.