• Title/Summary/Keyword: the Kriging model

Search Result 329, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Estimation of Radial Spectrum for Orographic Storm (산지성호우의 환상스팩트럼 추정)

  • Lee, Jae Hyoung;Sonu, Jung Ho;Kim, Min Hwan;Shim, Myung Pil
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.10 no.4
    • /
    • pp.53-66
    • /
    • 1990
  • Rainfall is a phenomenon that shows a high variability both in space and time, Hy drologists are usually interested in the description of spatial distribution of rainfall over watershed. The theory of Kriging, generalized covariance technique using nonstationary mean in the regions under orographic effect, was chosen to construct random surface of total storm depth. For the constructed random surface, the double Fourier analysis of the total storm depths was performed, and the principal harmonics of storm were determined. The local component, or storm residuals was obtained by subtracting the periodic component of the storm from total storm depths. It is assumed that the residuals are a sample function of a homogeneous random field. This random field can be characterized by an isotropic one dimensional autocorrelation function or its corresponding spectral density function. Under this assumption, this study proposed a theorectical model for spectral density function adapted to two watersheds.

  • PDF

An Evaluation of River Discharge Estimates in a Junction with Backwater effect using Interpolated Hydraulic Performance Graph (HPG로 산정한 합류부 배수영향 구간의 유량 평가)

  • Kim, Ji-Sung;Kim, Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.38 no.6
    • /
    • pp.831-838
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper presents a method to estimate the flow discharge in a backwater affected river junction. First, unsteady HEC-RAS model was simulated and calibrated using 2 recent real flood and then HPG (Hydraulic Performance Graph) was created by plotting the relationship between upstream and downstream stages and discharge in the reach and performing kriging interpolation. During a flood, the discharge through the reach can be estimated based on the stages at its ends and the developed HPG. These discharge data were in good agreement with the automatic discharge measurements such as ADVM. This study could provide an economical and practical method for estimating discharge in a junction with a high hysteresis of stage-discharge relationships.

Optimal Design for a Conic Winglet of a Dual Type Combined Fan (이중구조팬의 Conic Winglet 최적설계)

  • Kim, Jin-Wook;Kim, Woo-Teak;Ryu, Min-Hyoung;Cho, Lee-Sang;Cho, Jin-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.44 no.6
    • /
    • pp.468-476
    • /
    • 2016
  • In this study, the conic winglet which is made by rotating wing tip airfoil by each 3 axis is applied to the dual type combined fan to reduce the wing tip leakage loss. Computational Fluid Dynamics is used to calculate the loss and optimum technique is used to get minimum loss. Optimization results shows that total pressure loss coefficient was reduced by 3.4 %, and optimization model was a bended shape at the end of wing forward to pressure side.

DESIGN OPTIMIZATION AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF INTERNAL COOLING PASSAGE WITH VARIOUS TYPE OF RIB TURBULATOR FOR HIGH PRESSURE TURBINE NOZZLE (전산유체해석을 이용한 다양한 요철 형상에 대한 고압터빈 노즐 냉각유로 최적화 및 냉각 성능 비교)

  • Lee, S.A.;Rhee, D.H.;Kang, Y.S.;Yee, K.J.;Kim, K.H.
    • Journal of computational fluids engineering
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.14-19
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study conducts shape optimization of rib turbulator on the internal cooling passage that has triangular cross-section of high pressure turbine nozzle. During optimization, various types of rib turbulator including angled, V-shaped, A-shaped and angled rib with intersecting rib are considered. Each type of rib turbulator is parameterized with attack angle(s), rib height, spacing ratio and bending/intersecting location. For optimization, Design of Experiment (DOE) and Kriging surrogate model are used to utilize computational resource more efficiently and Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to search the optimum points. As a result, Pareto front of each type of rib turbulator with friction factor that relates to pressure drop in cooling passage and spatially averaged Nusselt number that relates to heat transfer on the wall is drawn and optimum points on the Pareto front are suggested.

The Study for Estimating Traffic Volumes on Urban Roads Using Spatial Statistic and Navigation Data (공간통계기법과 내비게이션 자료를 활용한 도시부 도로 교통량 추정연구)

  • HONG, Dahee;KIM, Jinho;JANG, Doogik;LEE, Taewoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.220-233
    • /
    • 2017
  • Traffic volumes are fundamental data widely used in various traffic analysis, such as origin-and-destination establishment, total traveled kilometer distance calculation, congestion evaluation, and so on. The low number of links collecting the traffic-volume data in a large urban highway network has weakened the quality of the analyses in practice. This study proposes a method to estimate the traffic volume data on a highway link where no collection device is available by introducing a spatial statistic technique with (1) the traffic-volume data from TOPIS, and National Transport Information Center in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and (2) the navigation data from private navigation. Two different component models were prepared for the interrupted and the uninterrupted flows respectively, due to their different traffic-flow characteristics: the piecewise constant function and the regression kriging. The comparison of the traffic volumes estimated by the proposed method against the ones counted in the field showed that the level of error includes 6.26% in MAPE and 5,410 in RMSE, and thus the prediction error is 20.3% in MAPE.

Estimation of Missing Records in Daily Climate Data over the Korean Peninsula (한반도의 과거 기후 데이터 구축을 위한 누락된 기록 추정)

  • Noh, Gyu-Ho;Ahn, Kuk-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2020.06a
    • /
    • pp.135-135
    • /
    • 2020
  • 우리나라의 기후 자료는 일반적으로 기상청에서 발표하는 종관기상관측(ASOS)과 방재기상관측(AWS), 그리고 북한이 세계기상기구(WMO, World Meteorogical Organization)의 기상통신망(GTS)을 통해 보낸 북한기상관측(NKO)을 사용 할 수 있다. 그러나 이 중 40년 이상의 완전한 관측 자료를 얻을 수 있는 건 ASOS가 유일하지만 공간적인 표현에 한계를 갖고 있다. AWS는 관측소가 많다는 장점이 있지만 관측 기간이 길지 않고 이용 가능한 기간에도 관측이 연속적이지 못한 경우가 많다. NKO는 비록 27개의 관측소가 있지만 많은 데이터가 누락되어 일별 기후자료의 사용에 한계를 갖고 있다. 이러한 미관측 기간이나 관측 자료의 누락은 연속적인 시계열 자료분석을 기반으로 하는 수자원 모델링에 있어서 문제를 야기한다. 본 연구는 1973년부터 2019년까지 47년의 신뢰도 높은 한반도 일일 기후 자료를 구축하기 위해 다양한 방법론을 비교하였다. 추정에 사용한 방법은 총 7개로 EM algorithm for probabilistic principal components (PPCA-EM), Inverse distance weight method (IDWM), Nearest neighbor method (NNM), Multivariate normal copulas (Copula), Elastic net model (Elastic), Ordinary kriging (OK), Regularized principal components with EM algorithm (RPCA-EM)를 살펴보았다. 다양한 형태의 결측치를 가정하여 그 결과값을 비교하였고 이는 Root mean squared error(RMSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency(KGE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)를 통해 평가하였다. 최종 선택된 방법론을 통하여 한반도 전역을 그리드 기반의 강수 및 최저온도/최고온도의 일별자료로 생성하였다.

  • PDF

Long-term Trend Analysis of Key Criteria Air Pollutants over Air Quality Control Regions in South Korea using Observation Data and Air Quality Simulation (관측자료와 대기질 모사를 이용한 주요 기준성 대기오염물질의 권역별 장기변화 분석)

  • Ju, Hyeji;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Ghim, Young Sung;Shin, Hye Jung;Kim, Soontae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
    • /
    • v.34 no.1
    • /
    • pp.101-119
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this study, we analyzed long-term measurements and air quality simulation results of four criteria air pollutants ($PM_{10}$, $O_3$, $NO_2$, and $SO_2$) for 10 years, from 2006 to 2015, with emphasis on trends of annual variabilities. With the observation data, we conducted spatial interpolation using the Kriging method to estimate spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations. We also performed air quality simulations using the CMAQ model to consider the nonlinearity of the secondary air pollutants such as $O_3$ and the influence of long-range transport. In addition, these simulations are used to deduce the effect of long-term meteorological variations on trends of air quality changes because we fixed the emissions inventory while changing meteorological inputs. The nation-wide inter-annual variability of modeled $PM_{10}$ concentrations was $-0.11{\mu}g/m^3/yr$, while that of observed concentrations was $-0.84{\mu}g/m^3/yr$. For the Seoul Metropolitan Area, the inter-annual variability of observed $PM_{10}$ concentrations was $-1.64{\mu}g/m^3/yr$ that is two times rapid improvement compared to other regions. On the other hand, the inter-annual variability of observed $O_3$ concentrations is 0.62 ppb/yr which is larger than the simulated result of 0.13 ppb/yr. Magnitudes of differences between the modeled and observed inter-annual variabilities indicated that decreasing trend of $PM_{10}$ and increasing trend of $O_3$ are more influenced by emissions and oxidation states than meteorological conditions. We also found similar patterns in $NO_2$. However, $NO_2$ trends showed greater regional and seasonal differences than other pollutants. The analytic approach used in this study can be applicable to estimate changes in factors determining air quality such as emissions, weather, and surrounding conditions over a long term. Then analysis results can be used as important data for air quality management planning and evaluation of the chronic impact of air quality.

The Contamination Characteristics of BTEX and TPH Components in Silty Soils with the Oil Leakage Event from Point Source (점오염원 형태의 유류누출 사건에 의한 실트질 토양층에서 BTEX와 TPH 성분의 오염도 연구)

  • Kang, Dong-Hwan;Chung, Sang-Yong;Go, Dong-Ho
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.16 no.4 s.50
    • /
    • pp.393-402
    • /
    • 2006
  • The contamination characteristics of BTEX and TPH components in silty soils with the oil leakage event from point source were studied. The over ratios of three soil pollution standard for TPH component were $1.5{\sim}1.7$ times higher than that of BTEX component. The mean and maximum values of BTEX and TPH components with sample points were B-zone > A-zone > C-zone, and the highest concentrations were measured at $1{\sim}2m$ depth below surface. BTEX and TPH components were increased with linear distance in zone within 120 m and 80 m from point source. For the zone more than 120 m, BTEX and TPH concentrations were under soil pollution standard. The cutoff values of indicator kriging using BTEX and TPH components were defined as confirmative limit, warn- ing limit and counterplan limit. The variograms of indicator-transformed data were selected linear model. The contamination ranges of BTEX and TPH components using confirmative limit and warning limit were estimated similar, but the contamination range of those using counterplan limit was much reduced. The maximum contamination probabilities were estimated by probability maps usinB confirmative limit, warning limit and counterplan limit. The maximum contamination probabilities with three soil pollution standard were estimated 26%, 26% and 13% for BTEX component, and 44%, 38% and 26% for TPH component.

Enhancement of Geomorphology Generation for the Front Land of Levee Using Aerial Photograph (항공영상을 연계한 하천 제외지의 지형분석 개선 기법)

  • Lee, Geun Sang;Lee, Hyun Seok;Hwang, Eui Ho;Koh, Deuk Koo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.28 no.3D
    • /
    • pp.407-415
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study presents the methodology to link with aerial photos for advancing the accuracy of topographic survey data that is used to calculate water volume in urban stream. First, GIS spatial interpolation technique as Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) and Kriging was applied to construct the terrain morphology to the sand-bar and grass area using cross-sectional survey data, and also validation point data was used to estimate the accuracy of created topographic data. As the result of comparison, IDW ($d^{-2}_{ij}$, 2nd square number) in Sand-bar area and Kriging Spherical model in grass area showed more efficient results in the construction of topographic data of river boundary. But the differences among interpolation methods are very slight. Image classification method, Minimum Distance Method (MDM) was applied to extract sand-bar and grass area that are located to river boundary efficiently and the elevation value of extracted layers was allocated to the water level point value. Water volume with topographic data from aerial photos shows the advanced accuracy of 13% (in sand-bar) and 12% (in grass) compared to the water volume of original terrain data. Therefore, terrain analysis method in river linking with aerial photos is efficient to the monitoring about sand-bar and grass area that are located in the downstream of Dam in flooding season, and also it can be applied to calculate water volume efficiently.

The Study on Flood Runoff Simulation using Runoff Model with Gauge-adjusted Radar data (보정 레이더 자료와 유출 모형을 이용한 홍수유출모의에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Young-Hye;Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.51-61
    • /
    • 2010
  • Changes in climate have largely increased concentrated heavy rainfall, which in turn is causing enormous damages to humans and properties. Therefore, it is important to understand the spatial-temporal features of rainfall. In this study, RADAR rainfall was used to calculate gridded areal rainfall which reflects the spatial-temporal variability. In addition, Kalman-filter method, a stochastical technique, was used to combine ground rainfall network with RADAR rainfall network to calculate areal rainfall. Thiessen polygon method, Inverse distance weighting method, and Kriging method were used for calculating areal rainfall, and the calculated data was compared with adjusted areal RADAR rainfall measured using the Kalman-filter method. The result showed that RADAR rainfall adjusted with Kalman-filter method well-reproduced the distribution of raw RADAR rainfall which has a similar spatial distribution as the actual rainfall distribution. The adjusted RADAR rainfall also showed a similar rainfall volume as the volume shown in rain gauge data. Anseong-Cheon basin was used as a study area and the RADAR rainfall adjusted with Kalman-filter method was applied in $Vflo^{TM}$ model, a physical-based distributed model, and ModClark model, a semi-distributed model. As a result, $Vflo^{TM}$ model simulated peak time and peak value similar to that of observed hydrograph. ModClark model showed good results for total runoff volume. However, for verifying the parameter, $Vflo^{TM}$ model showed better reproduction of observed hydrograph than ModClark model. These results confirmed that flood runoff simulation is applicable in domestic settings(in South Korea) if highly accurate areal rainfall is calculated by combining gauge rainfall and RADAR rainfall data and the simulation is performed in link to the distributed hydrological model.