• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.393-410
• /
• 2021

The Korean Long-Term Care Insurance (K-LTCI) provides financial support for long-term care service to people who need various types of assistance with daily activities. As the number of elderly people in Korea is expected to increase in the future, the demand for long-term care insurance would also increase over time. Projection of future expenditure on K-LTCI depends on the number of beneficiaries within the grading system of K-LTCI based on the test scores of applicants. This study investigated the suitability of mixture distributions to the model K-LTCI score distribution using recent empirical data on K-LTCI, provided by the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). Based on the developed mixture models, the number of beneficiaries in each grade and its variability under the current grading system were estimated by simulation. It was observed that a mixture model is suitable for K-LTCI score distribution and may prove useful in devising a funding plan for K-LTCI benefit payment and investigating the effects of any possible revision in the K-LTCI grading system.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.67-71
• /
• 1988

To estimate the probability of short term concentration of air pollution using long term arithmetic average concentration, the procedure was developed and added to Texas Climatological Model version 2. In the procedure, such statistical characteristics that frequency distribution of short term concentration may be approximated by a lognormal distribution, were applied. This procedure is capable of estimating not only highest concentration for a variety of averaging times but also concentrations for arbitrary occurrence frequency. Evaluation of the procedure with the results of short term concentrations calculated by Texas Episodic Model version 8 using the meteorological data and emission data in Seoul shows that the procedure estimates concentrations fairly well for wide range of percentiles.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
• /
• v.11 no.1
• /
• pp.107-118
• /
• 1993

A dimension of well-being economic security was analyzed and compared with economic adequacy. Again it was tested whether two indicators of economic security(short-term vs. long-term) yield same distribution across all household groups. Economic Security was defined as the household ability to sustain a given level of consumption in the case of economic emergency; specifically loss of income. Measure of 8 different kinds of economic security were constructed from household net worth including and excluding home equity. Data were taken from the 1988 U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and 2148 households were selected to test hypotheses concerning the economic security of American households Empirical results showed a very low level of economic security in general. The first hypothesis that distribution of economic adequacy and economic security are same across all population groups was rejected. On the average security measure rather than adequacy measure was favor to white female-headed households and households who have old and highly educated house-holder. The second hypothesis that the indicators of long-term and short-term economic security yield the same results across all household was not rejected. In general the level of economic security was relatively higher when long-term indicator was used than short-term indicator was however the direction and relative size of effect of income and each control variable was almost same.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.95-104
• /
• 2017

Purpose - This study focuses on long-term orientation that can lead long-term partnership. A long-term orientation needs a trust and relation commitment between company. So in this study, the researcher conducts a dependent variable as a justice recognition and brand asset value to research model to find out casual relationship among quoted factors. Research design, data, and methodology - The focus of this study was employees who work in a liquor distribution company to figure out factors that effect on long-term relationship in b2b transaction. The development of the research model is based on the literature of the preceding research analysis of justice recognition, brand asset value, trust, relation commitment and long-term orientation. This study have constructs that defined operationally by previous studies, research model design that to figuring casual relationships among the quoted factors. From 2016 Sep. 1st to Oct. 30th, a questionnaire survey was conducted targeting employees who work in liquor distribution company. 176 survey data were used for empirical analysis to prove the research hypotheses. Results - The main results of this study's empirical methodology were as follows. First, procedural justice and interactive justice has a positive significant effect on trust and relation commitment. Also brand image, brand awareness and perceived quality has a positive significant effect on trust and relation commitment. Second, trust and relation commitment has a positive significant effect on long-term orientation. Every hypothesis adopted as the researcher designed for empirical study. Conclusions - Based on empirical results, this study confirmed that trust and relation commitment has empirical relationship with long-term orientation. Based on the analysis, the researcher provided managerial implication by setting 2 way path for making long-term orientation with business company. First path is procedural justice to relation commitment. It contains that procedural justice recognised while business transaction execution, consideration intension and relation development will happen in b2b. Second path is perceived quality to trust. It contains that the perceived quality recognised while business transaction execution, trust will increase rapidly. So when a business company wants to make a partnership, they have to consider procedural justice and perceived quality to make a long-term relationship.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
• /
• v.9 no.10
• /
• pp.83-89
• /
• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this study examines when the optimism impact on financial asset price forecasting and the boundary condition of optimism in the financial asset price forecasting. People generally tend to optimistically forecast their future. Optimism is a nature of human beings and optimistic forecasting observed in daily life. But is it always observed in financial asset price forecasting? In this study, two factors were focused on considering whether the optimism that people have applied to predicting future performance of financial investment products (e.g., mutual fund). First, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied depending on the direction of the prior price trend. Second, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied according to the forecast period by dividing the future forecasted by people into three time horizon based on forecast period. Research design, data, and methodology - 2 (prior price trend: rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) × 3 (forecast time horizon: short term vs medium term vs long term) experimental design was used. Prior price trend was used between subject and forecast time horizon was used within subject design. 169 undergraduate students participated in the experiment. χ² analysis was used. In this study, prior price trend divided into two types: rising-up trend versus falling-down trend. Forecast time horizon divided into three types: short term (after one month), medium term (after one year), and long term (after five years). Results - Optimistic price forecasting and boundary condition was found. Participants who were exposed to falling-down trend did not make optimistic predictions in the short term, but over time they tended to be more optimistic about the future in the medium term and long term. However, participants who were exposed to rising-up trend were over-optimistic in the short term, but over time, less optimistic in the medium and long term. Optimistic price forecasting was found when participants forecasted in the long term. Exposure to prior price trends (rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) was a boundary condition of optimistic price forecasting. Conclusions - The results indicated that individuals were more likely to be impacted by prior price tends in the short term time horizon, while being optimistic in the long term time horizon.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.356-366
• /
• 2007

In this paper a methodology is developed to prioritize replacement of water distribution pipes according to the economical efficiency of replacement and assess the long-term effects of water main replacement policies on water distribution systems. The methodology is implemented with MATLAB to develop a computer algorithm which is used to apply the methodology to a case study water distribution system. A pipe break prediction model is used to estimate future costs of pipe repair and replacement, and the economically optimal replacement time of a pipe is estimated by obtaining the time at which the present worth of the total costs of repair and replacement is minimum. The equation for estimating the present worth of the total cost is modified to reflect the fact that a pipe can be replaced in between of failure events. The results of the analyses show that about 9.5% of the pipes in the case study system is required to be replaced within the planning horizon. Analyses of the yearly pipe replacement requirements for the case study system are provided along with the compositions of the replacement. The effects of water main replacement policies, for which yearly replacement length scenario and yearly replacement budget scenario are used, during a planning horizon are simulated in terms of the predicted number of pipe failures and the saved repair costs.

• Journal of Distribution Research
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.93-122
• /
• 1999

Long-term relationship in distribution channels has been emphasized in the former researches. But many researches and literatures have not focused on how to achieve and maintain long-term relationship. To achieve and maintain long-term relationship, this study pays attention to the role of trust and commitment. The purpose of this study is explaining the relation between trust and commitment with the mutual perspectives of retailer and supplier. Research results indicate that trust has an effect on commitment, trust has two levels of firm and a responsible person, and perception of partners commitment has an effect on trust in two levels. And it shows that to increase perception of commitment, increasing commitment, quality of communication, satisfaction, reputation, and decreasing opportunistic behavior should be considered.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
• /
• 2004.11a
• /
• pp.109-112
• /
• 2004

It was found from the previous experimental studies that the long-term deformation of SRC columns was quite different from that of RC columns. A new approach method is needed to quantitatively predict the long-term deformation of SRC columns. In this study, the causes of the difference between the behaviors of RC and SRC columns are investigated and discussed. SRC columns exhibit a time-dependent relative humidity distribution in a cross section differently from that of RC columns due to the presence of a flange, which interferes with the moisture diffusion of concrete. This different relative humidity distribution may reduce the drying shrinkage and the drying creep in comparison with RC columns.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.628-633
• /
• 2020

This paper presents an analysis of the shelf-life management program of the long-term storage one-shot system. The one-shot system is mainly maintained with long-term storage or non-operating status and is operated once at execution of the mission. The function corresponding to one-shot is mainly operated through a shelf-life item such as an explosive. The performance and characteristics of shelf-life item are subject to change as the storage period passes. Therefore, shelf-life management for maintaining good condition is very important during long-term storage, and criteria for management is necessary. We present a method for optimizing shelf-life extension by comparing criteria for management with current reliability. Next, the shelf-life evaluation schedule was decided by utilizing the reliability function of exponential distribution and Weibull distribution. Continuously accumulated test data from the shelf-life evaluation were analyzed, and the parameter of distribution was updated. The extension or expiration of shelf-life was selected by monitoring changes in reliability. In addition, we confirmed the applicability of the presented shelf-life management program by applying ASRP test data of the one-shot system K000 fuse.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.63 no.12
• /
• pp.1683-1689
• /
• 2014

In this paper, we propose an image processing based time-frequency domain reflectometry(TFDR) in order to estimate the fault location of a cable. The Wigner-Ville distribution is used for analysis in both the time domain and the frequency domain when the conventional TFDR estimates the fault location in a cable. However, the Winger-Ville distribution is a bi-linear function, and hence the cross-term is occurred. The conventional TFDR cannot estimate the accurate fault location due to the cross-term in case the fault location is close to the position where the reference signal is applied to the cable. The proposed method can reduce the cross-term effectively using binarization and morphological image processing, and can estimate the fault location more accurately using the template matching based cross correlation compared to the conventional TFDR. To prove the performance of the proposed method, the actual experiments are carried out in some cases.