• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.331-343
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• 2019

Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.81-112
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• 2012

This study investigate the impact of supply chain contracts on supply chain performance. This study employed Price adjustment contract(PAC) and Quantity adjustment contract(QAC) as two main types of a vertical coordination mechanism. We simulate different types of coordination mechanisms with various degrees of demand uncertainties and several capacity tightness scenarios. This study shows that PAC and QAC significantly enhance the supply chain profits and fill rates suggesting that supply chain performance can be improved by implementing a proper coordination mechanism depends on the level of a capacity tightness and demand uncertainty.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.21-35
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• 2014

As productions and deliveries of multiple products to multiple marketplaces have been increasingly popular, supply chain flexibility, which refers to an ability to deal with demand and capacity uncertainty, becomes an important issue in supply chain management. However, logistics costs have been largely neglected in the literature on supply chain flexibility structure. In this paper, we propose mathematical models to investigate the impact of the logistics costs on the optimal flexibility structure. We also conduct a simulation study and observe that logistics costs have a significant impact on the decision on supply chain flexibility structure. Such conclusion is also supported by the case study of a global car manufacturer, Honda Motors.

• 경영과학
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.149-165
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• 2013

This study empirically investigated the changes of performance evaluation systems under the environment of supply-chain e-commerce. The objectives of e-commerce include obtaining financial profit, internal innovation through processes integration, learning with information flow, and customer satisfaction through quick response. These objectives are generally consistent with the four evaluation measures of balanced scorecard(BSC). This study, first, demonstrated that perceived environmental uncertainty(PEU) has a significant effect on the adoptions of e-commerce and BSC, and severe competition positively influences the use of e-commerce. With cluster analysis and subgroup analysis, we also showed that under the high adoption levels of e-commerce, the high utilization of BSC can improve the supply-chain performance of a firm. In addition, it was found that the use of e-commerce indirectly and significantly affects supply-chain performance through inter-organizational information flow, and the supply-chain performance of a firm leads to the improvement of organizational performance.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.139-148
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• 2009

In a real-life supply chain environment, demand forecasting is usually represented by probabilistic distributions due to the uncertainty inherent in customer demands. However, the customer demand used for an actual supply chain planning is a single deterministic value for each of periods. In this paper we study the choice of single demand value among of the given customer demand distribution for a period to be used in the supply chain planning. This paper considers distributed multi-echelon supply chain and the objective function of this paper is to minimize the total costs, that is the sum of holding and backorder costs over the distribution network under the service level constraint, by using demand selection scheme. Some useful findings are derived from various simulation-based experiments.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.1-21
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• 2017

This paper discusses a reverse supply chain (RSC) which consists of the process flows from procurement of used products collected from a market, through remanufacturing products from the used products, to sales of the products in a market. In general, it is conceivable for the RSC to face the uncertainty in quality of used products collected from a market. Inspection is one of efficient methods to deal with the problem regarding quality of used products. However, there is a trade-off between inspection cost and inspection accuracy. This paper focuses on the following five types of inspection: (1) 100% inspection, (2) sampling inspection, (3) sampling inspection with screening of rejected lots, (4) sampling inspection with screening of acceptable lots, and (5) no inspection, and determines the optimal operation consisting of the optimal number of procured used products and the optimal inspection policy. Numerical analysis clarifies not only how changes of conditions of the RSC affect the manufacturer's optimal operation but also features of each inspection type. In addition, from the results of numerical analysis, this paper shows the usability to add the proposed inspection in this paper, the sampling inspection with screening of acceptable lots, to choices of inspection type.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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• pp.273-277
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• 2010

This research was performed to examine changes in the timing of the growth of crops along with changes in temperatures due tochanges and to analyze the change of water-supply-reliability by adding an analysis of the change of agricultural water supply patterns in the basin area of Miryang dam in Korea. Had-CM3 model from U.K. was the tool adopted for the GCM model, a stochastic, daily-meteorology-generation-model called LARS-WG was alsoused for downscaling and for the climate change scenario (A1B) which represents Korea's circumstances best. First of all, to calculate changes in the timing of the growth of crops during this period, the theory of GDD was applied. Except for the period of transplanting and irrigation, there was no choice but to find the proper accumulated temperature by comparing actual temperature data and the supply pattern of agricultural use due to limited temperature data. As a result, proper temperatures were found for each period. $400^{\circ}C$ for the preparation period of a nursery bed, $704^{\circ}C$ for a nursery bed's period, $1,295^{\circ}C$ for the rice-transplanting period, $1,744^{\circ}C$ for starting irrigation, and $3,972^{\circ}C$ for finishing irrigation. To analyze future agricultural supply patter changes, the A1B scenario of Had-CM3 model was adopted, and then Downscaling was conducted adopting LARS-WG. To conduct a stochastical analysis of LARS-WG, climate scenarios were generated for the periods 2011~2030, 2046~2065, 2080~2099 using the data of precipitation andMax/Min temperatures collected from the Miryang gauging station. Upon reviewing the result of the analysis of accumulated temperatures from 2011~2030, the supply of agricultural water was 10 days earlier, and in the next periods-2046~2065, 2080~2099 it also was 10 days earlier. With these results, it is assumed that the supply of agricultural water should be about 1 month ahead of the existing schedule to meet the proper growth conditions of crops. From the results of the agricultural water supply patterns should be altered, but the reliability of water supply becomes more favorable, which is caused from the high precipitation change. Furthermore, since the unique characteristics of precipitation in Korea, which has high precipitation in the summer, water-supply-reliability has a pattern that the precipitation in September could significantly affect the chances of drought the following winter and spring. It could be more risky to make changes to the constant supply pattern under these conditions due to the high uncertainty of future precipitation. Although, several researches have been conducted concerning climate changes, in the field of water-industry, those researches have been solely dependent on precipitation. Even so, with the high uncertainty of precipitation, it is difficult for it to be reflected in government policy. Therefore, research in the field of water-supply-patterns or evapotranspiration according to the temperature or other diverse effects, which has higher reliability on anticipation, could obtain more reliable results in the future and that could result in water-resource maintenance to be safer and a more advantageous environment.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.109-117
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• 2016

Recently, corporate environment is faced with uncertainty that did not suffer in the past. In addition, as the supply chain was expanded and lengthened, the flow of information and material was complicated. Increase in complexity which amplifies the variability of the individual steps in supply chains further adds to the uncertainty. The bullwhip effect that refers the phenomenon where order variability increases as the orders move upstream in the supply chain became serious. The bullwhip effect is more and more important especially for the enterprise in the supply chain. So, there are many studies now since it was observed about 100 years ago. The aim of this paper is to analyze how to solve the bullwhip effect by using TRIZ (Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadach). TRIZ is one of the most famous tools for creative solving that applied in many fields ranging from management as well as engineering. Among problems, the dilemma needs creative solutions that require handling the contradictions inherent in that. Among various kinds of problem solving techniques, TRIZ provides the concept of physical contradiction as a common problem solving principle. This study provides a simple process of solving problem explains a case of solving problem in the management field and shows the availability of theory in the inventory control. In accordance with the proposed solving process, the paper analyzes the bullwhip effect by applying the TRIZ tools and then identifies the solution directions. Next, the current studies are classified by the above analysis and important managerial concepts are proposed. Lastly, directions for future research on this area are suggested.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제50권2호
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• pp.121-128
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• 2017

본 연구는 강건성 지수와 불확실성 분석기법을 활용하여 기후변화 취약성 평가과정에서 발생하는 불확실성을 정량화하였다. 본 연구는 우리나라의 6개 광역시(부산, 대구, 인천, 광주, 대전, 울산)를 대상으로 다기준 의사결정기법 중 하나인 TOPSIS 기법을 이용하여 용수공급 취약성 순위를 산정하였다. 강건성 지수는 두 대상 도시의 순위가 가중치의 변화로 인해 순위역전현상이 발생할 수 있는 가능성을 정량화하고 불확실성 분석 기법은 두 도시 사이에 순위역전이 발생할 수 있는 가중치의 최소 변화량을 산정한다. 그 결과 인천과 대구는 용수공급 측면에서 취약한 것으로 나타났으며, 대구와 부산은 용수공급 취약성에 민감한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 대구는 다른 대안에 비해 상대적으로 용수공급이 취약한 지역으로 나타났으나, 취약성에 민감하기 때문에 기후변화 적응대책 수립 및 시행을 통해 취약성이 크게 향상될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구는 기후변화와 용수공급 측면에서의 적응전략을 계획하고 수립하는데 있어서 우선적으로 고려해야하는 방향을 제안하는 데 사용될 수 있다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.25-42
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• 2019

This research examined the mediation effect of Workforce Agility (WA) on the relationship between environmental uncertainty and operational performance. We manipulated the control variables that are known to be affected by employment flexibility. Employment flexibility is caused by idiosyncratic characteristics of Korean port system. The analysis was tested by Baron & Kenny's method. The result indicates that each path of the proposed model is significant. Furthermore, the mediation effect was checked with the Sobel Test. The research revealed that environment uncertainty poses an indirect effect on operational performance. Both supply/demand uncertainty and technological uncertainty affected operational performance through the mediation effect of WA. Most of the distribution centers located in Busan Newport Distripark are operated in a bimodal labor (human resource) system which includes both permanent employees (workers) and temporary employees (workers). This empirical research provides theoretical and managerial implications by suggesting ways to increase efficiency in distribution center operation through WA enhancement, and to improve the unloading labor system.