• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.227-236
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• 2006

프랙탈 차원은 연속적으로 관측된 불규칙한 자료의 성질을 정량적으로 표현하는 파라메터이다. 본 연구에서는 프랙탈 차원을 이용하여 태양 흑점수의 불규칙한 변동을 분석하고 다가오는 태양주기의 최대흑점수를 예측하였다. 이를 위하여 우리는 SIDC(Solar Influences Data analysis Center)에서 제공하는 1850년부터 2004년까지의 일일흑점수를 이용하여 Higuchi의 방법으로 각 태양주기의 프랙탈 차원을 결정하고 같은 태양주기 동안의 최대 월평균 흑점수와 비교하였다. 그 결과 프랙탈 차원과 최대 월평균 흑점수는 강한 역비례 관계를 보였다. 이러한 관계를 이용하여 태양활동 극소기부터 활동이 증가되는 기간인 4년동안의 흑점수만을 이용하여 프랙탈 차원을 구하고 다가올 극대기의 최대 월평균 흑점수를 예측한 결과 관측된 최대흑점수와 0.89의 좋은 상관관계를 보였다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.103-113
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• 2012

The ButterStar Observatory at the Dongducheon High School has been working for photographic observations of the Sun since October 16, 2002. In this study, we observed the Sun at the ButterStar observatory for 3,364 days from October 16, 2002 to December 31, 2011, and analyzed the photographic sunspot data obtained in 1,965 days. The correction factor $K_b$ for the entire observing period is 0.9519, which is calculated using the linear least square method to the relationship between the daily sunspot number, $R_B$, and the daily international relative sunspot number, $R_i$. The yearly correction factor calculated for each year varies slightly from year to year and shows a trend to change along the solar cycle. The correction factor is larger during the solar maxima and smaller during the solar minima in general. This implies that the discrepancy between a relative sunspot number, R, and the daily international relative sunspot number, $R_i$, can be reduced by using a yearly correction factor. From 2002 to 2008 in solar cycle 23, 35.4% and 64.6% of sunspot groups and 35.1% and 64.9% of isolated sunspots in average occurred in the northern hemisphere and in the southern hemisphere, respectively, and from 2008 to 2011 in solar cycle 24, 61.3% and 38.7% of sunspot groups and 65.0% and 35.0% of isolated sunspots were observed, respectively. This result shows that the occurrence frequency for each type of sunspot group changes along the solar cycle development, which can be interpreted as the emerging and decaying process of sunspot groups is different depending on the phase of solar cycle. Therefore, it is considered that a following study would contribute to the efforts to understand the dependence of the dynamo mechanism on the phase of solar cycle.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.163-168
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• 2013

Parameters associated with solar minimum have been studied to relate them to solar activity at solar maximum so that one could possibly predict behaviors of an upcoming solar cycle. The number of active days has been known as a reliable indicator of solar activity around solar minimum. Active days are days with sunspots reported on the solar disk. In this work, we have explored the relationship between the sunspot numbers at solar maximum and the characteristics of the monthly number of active days. Specifically, we have statistically examined how the maximum monthly sunspot number of a given solar cycle is correlated with the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days for the corresponding solar cycle. We have calculated the linear correlation coefficient r and the Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient $r_s$ for data sets prepared under various conditions. Even though marginal correlations are found, they turn out to be insufficiently significant (r ~ 0.3). Nonetheless, we have confirmed that the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days is less steep when solar cycles belonging to the "Modern Maximum" are considered compared with rests of solar cycles. We conclude, therefore, that the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days is indeed dependent on the solar activity at its maxima, but that this simple relationship should be insufficient as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.245-251
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• 2012

Since the development of surface magnetic features should reflect the evolution of the solar magnetic field in the deep interior of the Sun, it is crucial to study properties of sunspots and sunspot groups to understand the physical processes working below the solar surface. Here, using the data set of sunspot groups observed at the ButterStar observatory for 3,364 days from 2002 October 16 to 2011 December 31, we investigate temporal change of sunspot groups depending on their Z$\ddot{u}$rich classification type. Our main findings are as follows: (1) There are more sunspot groups in the southern hemisphere in solar cycle 23, while more sunspot groups appear in the northern hemisphere in solar cycle 24. We also note that in the declining phase of solar cycle 23 the decreasing tendency is apparently steeper in the solar northern hemisphere than in the solar southern hemisphere. (2) Some of sunspot group types make a secondary peak in the distribution between the solar maximum and the solar minimum. More importantly, in this particular data set, sunspot groups which have appeared in the solar southern hemisphere make a secondary peak 1 year after a secondary peak occurs in the solar northern hemisphere. (3) The temporal variations of small and large sunspot group numbers are disparate. That is, the number of large sunspot group declines earlier and faster and that the number of small sunspot group begins to rise earlier and faster. (4) The total number of observed sunspot is found to behave more likewise as the small sunspot group does. Hence, according to our findings, behaviors and evolution of small magnetic flux tubes and large magnetic flux tubes seem to be different over solar cycles. Finally, we conclude by briefly pointing out its implication on the space weather forecast.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.23-29
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• 2021

Utilizing a new version of the sunspot number and group sunspot number dataset available since 2015, we have statistically studied the relationship between solar activity parameters describing solar cycles and the slope of the linear relationship between the monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days in percentage (AD). As an effort of evaluating possibilities in use of the number of active days to predict solar activity, it is worthwhile to revisit and extend the analysis performed earlier. In calculating the Pearson's linear correlation coefficient r, the Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficient rs, and the Kendall's τ coefficient with the rejection probability, we have calculated the slope for a given solar cycle in three different ways, namely, by counting the spotless day that occurred during the ascending phase and the descending phase of the solar cycle separately, and during the period corresponding to solar minimum ± 2 years as well. We have found that the maximum solar sunspot number of a given solar cycle and the duration of the ascending phase are hardly correlated with the slope of a linear function of the monthly sunspot numbers and AD. On the other hand, the duration of a solar cycle is found to be marginally correlated with the slope with the rejection probabilities less than a couple of percent. We have also attempted to compare the relation of the monthly sunspot numbers with AD for the even and odd solar cycles. It is inconclusive, however, that the slopes of the linear relationship between the monthly group numbers and AD are subject to the even and odd solar cycles.

• 천문학논총
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.21-29
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• 2000

We have analyzed 221 data of daily sunspot observations made during the period of January 1 to December 30 in 1999 and presented the daily relative sunspot numbers. During the year of 1999, our annual average of relative sunspot numbers is found to be 130.1. This number is obtained from the averaged daily number of 6.7 spot groups, in which there are about 45.9 distinct spots observed. According to the appearance of 384 spot groups, our analysis shows that the mean life time of spot group is about 5 day and 4.6 hours.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.45.3-46
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• 2016

Solar activity shows a self-similarity as it has many periods of activity cycle in the time series of long-term observation, such as 13.5, 51, 150, 300 days, and 11, 88 years and so on. Since fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter for this kind of an irregular time series, we applied this method to long-term observations including sunspot number, total solar irradiance, and 3.75 GHz solar radio flux to predict the start and maximum times as well as expected maximum sunspot number for the next solar cycle. As a result, we found that the radio flux data tend to have lower fractal dimensions than the sunspot number data, which means that the radio emission from the sun is more regular than the solar activity expressed by sunspot number. Based on the relation between radio flux of 3.75 GHz and sunspot number, we could calculate the expected maximum sunspot number of solar cycle 24 as 156, while the observed value is 146. For the maximum time, estimated mean values from 7 different observations are January 2013 and this is quite different to observed value of February 2014. We speculate this is from extraordinary extended properties of solar cycle 24. As the cycle length of solar cycle 24, 10.1 to 12.8 years are expected, and the mean value is 11.0. This implies that the next solar cycle will be started at December 2019.

• 천문학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.119-127
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• 2001

We have analyzed 210 data of daily sunspot observations made during the period of January 3 to December 31 in 2000 and presented the daily relative sunspot numbers. For this work we estimated the conversion factors to derive the relative sunspot numbers: k=0.72 for the 20 cm refractor and k=0.56 for Solar Flare Telescope in KAO. During the year of 2000, our annual average of relative sunspot numbers is found to be 99.4. This number is obtained from the averaged daily number of 8.9 spot groups, in which there are about 62.5 distinct spots observed. According to the appearance of 423 spot groups, our analysis shows that the mean life time of the spot groups is about 4 day and 12.0 hours.

• 천문학논총
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.25-35
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• 2003

In this paper, we have re-examined the relative sunspot numbers from June 1987 to December 2002 observed at Korea Astronomy Observatory. For this we determined conversion factors (K) for each year data to derive the relative sunspot numbers. The estimated conversion factor ranges from 0.57 to 1.09 and has a trend to decrease with time, which seem to depend on the several effects such as observational system, observation methods, and experience of an observer. Our analysis shows that the newly-determined relative sunspot numbers are in much better agreements with the international sunspot numbers than the previously-determined ones in which the conversion factors were determined only four times. This result implies that we should determine the conversion factor for each year data. From these investigations, we also identified one and half solar cycles form our relative sunspot number.

• 천문학논총
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.15-22
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• 2002

We have analyzed 209 data of daily sunspot observations made during the period of January 3 to December 31 In 2001 and presented the daily relative sunspot numbers. During the year of 2001, our annual average of relative sunspot numbers is found to be 92.2. This number is obtained from the averaged daily number of 8.4 spot groups, in which there are about 57.5 distinct spots observed. According to the appearance of 370 spot groups, our analysis shows that the mean life time of spot groups is about 4 day and 20.4 hours.