Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2013.30.3.163

Maximum Sunspot Numbers and Active Days  

Chang, Heon-Young (Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, Kyungpook National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences / v.30, no.3, 2013 , pp. 163-168 More about this Journal
Abstract
Parameters associated with solar minimum have been studied to relate them to solar activity at solar maximum so that one could possibly predict behaviors of an upcoming solar cycle. The number of active days has been known as a reliable indicator of solar activity around solar minimum. Active days are days with sunspots reported on the solar disk. In this work, we have explored the relationship between the sunspot numbers at solar maximum and the characteristics of the monthly number of active days. Specifically, we have statistically examined how the maximum monthly sunspot number of a given solar cycle is correlated with the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days for the corresponding solar cycle. We have calculated the linear correlation coefficient r and the Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient $r_s$ for data sets prepared under various conditions. Even though marginal correlations are found, they turn out to be insufficiently significant (r ~ 0.3). Nonetheless, we have confirmed that the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days is less steep when solar cycles belonging to the "Modern Maximum" are considered compared with rests of solar cycles. We conclude, therefore, that the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days is indeed dependent on the solar activity at its maxima, but that this simple relationship should be insufficient as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.
Keywords
Sun; sunspot numbers; data analysis;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Mursula K, Ulich Th, A New Method to Determine the Solar Cycle Length, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1837-1840 (1998).   DOI   ScienceOn
2 Oh SJ, Chang HY, Change of Sunspot Groups Observed from 2002 to 2011 at ButterStar Observatory, JASS, 29, 245-251 (2012). http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2012.29.3.245   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
3 Pesnell WD, Solar Cycle Predictions, Sol. Phys., 281, 507-532 (2012).
4 Petrovay K, Solar Cycle Prediction, LRSP, 7, 6-64 (2010).
5 Solanki SK, Krivova NA, Schussler M, Fligge M, Search for a Relationship between Solar Cycle Amplitude and Length, A&A, 396, 1029-1035 (2002).   DOI   ScienceOn
6 Tlatov AG, The Minimum Activity Epoch as a Precursor of the Solar Activity, Sol. Phys., 260, 465-477 (2009).   DOI
7 Usoskin IG, Mursula K, Kovaltsov GA, Cyclic Behaviour of Sunspot Activity during the Maunder Minimum, A&A, 354, L33-L36 (2000).
8 Usoskin IG, Mursula K, Kovaltsov GA, Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays and solar activity during the Maunder minimum, JGR, 106, 16039-16046 (2001). http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000JA000105   DOI
9 Usoskin IG, Mursula K, Kovaltsov GA, An Upper Limit on Sunspot Activity During the Maunder Minimum, Sol. Phys., 224, 95-101 (2004).   DOI
10 Vaquero JM, Historical Sunspot Observations: A Review, AdSpR, 40, 929-941 (2007).
11 Vaquero JM, Trigo RM, Can the Solar Cycle Amplitude Be Predicted Using the Preceding Solar Cycle Length?, Sol. Phys., 250, 199-206 (2008).   DOI
12 Vaquero JM, Trigo RM, Gallego MC, A Simple Method to Check the Reliability of Annual Sunspot Number in the Historical Period 1610- 847, Sol. Phys., 277, 389-395 (2012).   DOI
13 Chang HY, Oh SJ, Does Correction Factor Vary with Solar Cycle?, JASS, 29, 97-101 (2012). http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2012.29.2.097   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
14 Cho IH, Chang HY, Latitudinal Distribution of Sunspots Revisited, JASS, 28, 1-7 (2011). http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2011.28.1.001   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
15 Harvey KL, White OR, What is Solar Cycle Minimum?, JGR, 104, 19759-19764 (1999). http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999JA900211   DOI
16 Dikpati M, Gilman PA, de Toma G, The Waldmeier Effect: An Artifact of the Definition of Wolf Sunspot Number?, ApJ, 673, L99-L101 (2008). http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/527360   DOI
17 Du ZL, Relationship Between Solar Maximum Amplitude and Max-Max Cycle Length, AJ, 132, 1485-1489 (2006).   DOI   ScienceOn
18 Hamid R, Galal A, Preliminary Prediction of the Strength of the 24th 11-year Solar Cycle. In: Bothmer, V, Hady, AA (eds.) Solar Activity and Its Magnetic Origin, Proc. IAU Symp. 233, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 413-416 (2006).
19 Hathaway DH, Wilson RM, Reichmann, EJ, The Shape of the Sunspot Cycle, Sol. Phys., 151, 177-190 (1994).   DOI
20 Hoyt DV, Schatten KH, Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Solar Activity Reconstruction, Sol. Phys., 179, 189-219 (1998).   DOI
21 Javaraiah, J, Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An improved Prediction for Solar Cycle 24, Sol. Phys., 252, 419-439 (2008).   DOI
22 Kane RP, Solar Cycle Predictions Based on Extrapolation of Spectral Components: An update, Sol. Phys., 243, 205-217 (2007).   DOI
23 Kim BY, Chang HY, Alternating Sunspot Area and Hilbert Transform Analysis, JASS, 28, 261-265 (2011). http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2011.28.4.261   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
24 Brown GM, What Determines Sunspot Maximum, MNRAS, 174, 185-189 (1976).   DOI
25 Berghmans D, van der Linden RAM, Vanlommel P, Warnant R, Zhukov A, et al., Solar Activity: Nowcasting and Forecasting at the SIDC, AnGeo, 23, 3115-3128 (2005).