• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.607-617
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• 2019

Global warming and climate change are increasing the intensity of typhoons and hurricanes and thus increasing the risk effects of typhoon and hurricane hazards on nuclear power plants (NPPs). To reflect these changes, a new NPP should be designed to endure design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an exceedance frequency of $10^{-7}/yr$. However, the short typhoon and hurricane observation records and uncertainties included in the inputs for an estimation cause significant uncertainty in the estimated wind speeds for return periods of longer than 100,000 years. A logic-tree framework is introduced to handle the epistemic uncertainty when estimating wind speeds. Three key parameters of a typhoon wind field model, i.e., the central pressure difference, pressure profile parameter, and radius to maximum wind, are used for constructing logic tree branches. The wind speeds of the simulated typhoons and the probable maximum wind speeds are estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, and wind hazard curves are derived as a function of the annual exceedance probability or return period. A logic tree decreases the epistemic uncertainty included in the wind intensity models and provides reasonably acceptable wind speeds.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.160-167
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• 2001

Cracking in connote structures is one of the main issues of structural design next to ensuring the load-bearing capacity. Thermal analysis is used to prevent thermal mucking, but concrete properties are uncertain variable, and analysis results have uncertainty, too. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of conductivity, specific heal and pouring temperature. The results show that lower conductivity and higher specific heat increase the maximum temperature and maximum tensile stress. The structure with internal restraint is mostly influenced by the change of conductivity and specific heat.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2004년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.267-274
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• 2004

Since there is a large variation in measurements of the thickness of corroded elements, the thickness of corroded elements are considered as imprecise elements. There is also a considerable degree of uncertainty in a visual assessment of thickness loss. The remaining thickness of a severly corroded element may be represented by an imprecise which expresses the range over which there is uncertainty about the thickness. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to propose a new methodology to safety assessment using imprecise reliability into conventional safety assessment frameworks. For this purpose, this study presents a safety assessment model using Imprecise reliability for large civil structures and demonstrates the applicability of the approach to cable-stayed bridge projects.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.15-28
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• 2014

Evaluation of the implementation and performance of a firm's green supply chain management (GSCM) is an ongoing process. Balanced scorecard is a multi-criteria evaluation concept that highlights implementation and performance measures. The literature on the framework is abundant literature but scarce on how to build a hierarchical framework under uncertainty with dependence relations. Hence, this study proposes a hybrid approach, which includes applied interpretive structural modeling to build a hierarchical structure and uses the analytic network process to analyze the dependence relations. Additionally, this study applies the fuzzy set theory to determine linguistic preferences. Twenty dependence criteria are evaluated for a GSCM implemented firm in Taiwan. The result shows that the financial aspect and life cycle assessment are the most important performance and weighted criteria.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.209-221
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• 2012

The flutter reliability analysis of long span bridges requires use of a software tool that predicts the uncertainty in a flutter response due to uncertainties in the model formulation and input parameters. Existing flutter analysis numerical codes are not capable of dealing with stochastic uncertainty in the analysis of long span bridges. The goal of the present work is to develop a software tool (FREASB) to enable designers to efficiently and accurately conduct flutter reliability analysis of long span bridges. The FREASB interfaces an open-source Matlab toolbox for structural reliability analysis (FERUM) with a typical deterministic flutter analysis code. The paper presents a brief introduction to the generalized first-order reliability method implemented in FREASB and key steps involved in coupling it with a typical deterministic flutter analysis code. A numerical example concerning flutter reliability analysis of a long span suspension bridge with a main span of 1385 m is presented to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the methodology and the software.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.377-392
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• 2007

A discrete sliding mode control (SMC) method based on hybrid model of neural network and nominal model is proposed to reduce the vibration of flexible structures, which is a robust active controller developed by using a sliding manifold approach. Since the thick boundary layer will reduce the virtue of SMC, the multilayer feed-forward neural network is adopted to model the uncertainty part. The neural network is trained by Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation. The design objective of the sliding mode surface is based on the quadratic optimal cost function. In course of running, the input signal of SMC come from the hybrid model of the nominal model and the neural network. The simulation shows that the proposed control scheme is very effective for large uncertainty systems.

• 소음진동
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.575-583
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• 2000

In this paper, we design a vibration control system that includes a 3-D.O.F. mass-spring-damper structure for the analytical model of a building that is excited at the base of this structure by an external dynamic force, and one Active Mass Damper(AMD) on the top of this structure to generate control forces fro attenuation of the structural response. Two robust controllers based on $\mu$-synthesis and H$\infty$ optimal control are designed for the structural system to show that the performance of a control system can be degraded by some parameter uncertainties such as mass, stiffness coefficients, and/or damping coefficients. The performance of the two controllers are compared in terms of nominal performance, robust stability and robust performance by simulations.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2003년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.267-273
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• 2003

Steel fiber may be used to raise the effectiveness and safety of reinforced concrete structure and to relax its brittle-fracture behavior. However it is to be clearly stated that the uncertainty for the strength of fiber reinforced concrete(SFRC) is rather increased. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the safety of SFRC beam using reliability analysis incorporating realistic uncertainty. This study presents the statistical data and proposes the limit state model to analyze the reliability of SFRC bear In order to verify the efficiency of the proposed limit state model, its numerical application and sensitivity analysis were performed for a continuous SFRC beam. From the results of the numerical analysis, it is founded that the reliability of SFRC beam is significantly difficult from the conventional RC beams and proposed limit state model (or SFRC beam is more rational compared with that for conventional RC beams. Then it may be stated that the reliability analysis of SFRC beams must be carried out for the development of design criteria and the safety assessment.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.123-132
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• 2014

인플레이션의 불확실성은 기업투자의 기회비용 산정 등에 어려움을 줌으로써 설비투자를 위축시킬 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라에서도 이러한 가설의 성립여부를 검정하고자 시변모수(Time-Varying) GARCH모형과 품목별 상대가격 변동성을 통해 인플레이션과 관련된 불확실성을 측정하고 동 불확실성이 기업의 설비투자에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 인플레이션 불확실성을 인플레이션율의 불확실성과 품목별 상대가격 변동성으로 각각 산출하여 추이를 살펴보면 우리나라의 인플레이션율이 구조적으로 낮아진 2000년대 이후에도 인플레이션 관련 변동성이 등락을 거듭하는 모습으로 보이고 있다. 또한, 동 지표들을 활용하여 설비투자와의 관계를 점검한 결과 인플레이션 불확실성은 예상한 바와 같이 기업의 설비투자에 유의한 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 이러한 인플레이션 불확실성의 비대칭적 효과를 살펴보기 위해 마코프 국면전환 회귀모형(Markov-Switching Regression Model)을 추정한 결과, 인플레이션 불확실성의 투자위축 효과가 경기위축기에 더욱 커지는 것으로 나타났다.

• 융합정보논문지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.183-191
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• 2018

본 연구는 사회부과적 완벽주의가 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족과 무조건적 자기수용을 매개로 우울에 미치는 영향을 검증하여 대학생들의 긍정적인 생활을 증진시킬 수 있는 방안을 모색하고자 실시하였다. 본 연구에서는 사회부과적 완벽주의, 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족, 무조건적 자기수용, 우울에 미치는 영향을 238명의 대학생을 대상으로 진행하였다. 이에 다차원적 완벽주의척도(MPS)의 하위요소인 사회부과적 완벽주의 척도, 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족 척도(IUS), 무조건적 자기수용 척도(USAQ-R), 우울 척도(CES-D)로 구성된 설문을 실시하여 상관분석 및 구조방정식 검증을 실시하였다. 분석결과 사회부과적 완벽주의와 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족은 우울과 유의한 부적 상관을 보였고, 무조건적 자기수용과는 유의한 정적 상관을 보였다. 구조방정식 검증을 통해 사회부과적 완벽주의와 우울과의 관계에서 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족과 무조건적 자기 수용이 완전매개를 보이는 것으로 검증되었다. 본 연구에서의 시사점 및 제언을 제시하였다.