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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2014.27.1.123

Asymmetric Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Facilities Investment  

Son, Minkyu (Research Department, The Bank of Korea)
Chang, Youngjae (Department of Information Statistics, Korea National Open University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.27, no.1, 2014 , pp. 123-132 More about this Journal
Abstract
Inflation uncertainty is known to have deleterious effects on facilities investment by disturbing the corporate decision on the opportunity cost of investment. In this paper, we test the validity of this hypothesis in Korea by estimating the inflation uncertainty with both a time-varing parameter model with GARCH disturbances and the relative price volatility and then, estimate the facilities investment equation which includes those uncertainty indicators. The uncertainty indexes estimated by the above-mentioned methods continue to fluctuate even after the inflation rate has dropped dramatically reflecting the structural changes of Korea's economy since the financial crisis in 1997. As a result of estimation of the investment equation by both OLS and GMM, we find the inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on facilities investment with a statistical significance. Moreover, by means of Markov-switching regression model utilized to verify the non-linearity of this relationship, we draw a conclusion that this negative effect of inflation uncertainty heightens asymmetrically during the downturn periods of business cycle.
Keywords
Inflation uncertainty; facilities investment; Markov-switching regression model; time-varying GARCH model;
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