• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2007.04a
• /
• pp.645-650
• /
• 2007

According to most studies, assessment of aging structure is trend to detect flaw size by sensor than using existing subjective evaluation by expert for objective evaluation. But Uncertainties existing in the sensor make difference between measured flaw size and actual flaw size, In this paper, Probability of Detection(POD) have been used to quantify the uncertainties and POD is updated by relationship measured flaw size and actual flaw size (Heasler, 1990), also we proposed probabilistic updating approach method to improve measurement accuracy(the difference of measured PDF and actual PDF) by using updated POD.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 1991.10a
• /
• pp.57-62
• /
• 1991

For the purpose of developing the method for efficiently calculating the design sensitivity and the reliability for the complicated structure such as ship structure, the probabilistic finite element method is introduced to formulate the deterministic design sensitivity analysis method and incorporated with the second moment reliability methods such as MVFOSM, AFOSM and SORM. Also, the probabilistic design sensitivity analysis needed in the reliability-based design is performed. The reliability analysis is carried out for the initial yielding failure, in which the derivative derived in the deterministic desin sensitivity is used. The present PFEM-based reliability method shows good agreement with Monte Carlo method in terms with the variance of response and the associated probability of failure even at the first or first few iteration steps. The probabilistic design sensitivity analysis evaluates explicitly the contribution of each random variable to probability of failure. Further, the reliability index variation can be easily predicted by the variation of the mean and the variance of the random variables.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.18 no.10
• /
• pp.54-62
• /
• 2017

This paper describes the behavior and failure probability of the basic structural members in a fire for the fire safety assessment of offshore structures. A fire safety assessment can be accomplished by comparing the fire resistance of the members with the fire severity of the heat load due to fire. The fire severity is represented as the maximum temperature of the members using the Eurocode 1 standard fire curve and heat transfer equation. On the other hand, the fire resistance is the limiting temperature calculated by a simplified formula in the case of simple structural members. Considering the complexity of FPSOs and offshore structures, a general-purpose structural analysis program should be used and the limiting temperature obtained by analyzing the structural strength of the members through an elasto-plastic analysis with a large deflection, and compared with the maximum temperature. Also, the equality of these two methods of evaluating the fire resistance was confirmed by comparing them. Following three criteria, the strength, serviceability and stability, three failure modes, namely the first failure of a hinge, large deflection and buckling, were chosen. The failure temperature was verified for each failure mode. using the AFOSM method in the equation of the fire severity and fire resistance, thereby giving the failure probability of the member. By applying these processes to the example of a beam and plate, the behavior of the structure and failure (temperature?) of each failure mode can be determined.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.367-382
• /
• 2015

This paper aims to conduct the reliability-based assessment of the welded joint in the orthotropic steel bridge deck by use of a mesh-insensitive structural stress (MISS) method, which is an effective numerical procedure to determine the reliable stress distribution adjacent to the weld toe. Both the solid element model and the shell element model are first established to investigate the sensitivity of the element size and the element type in calculating the structural stress under different loading scenarios. In order to achieve realistic condition assessment of the welded joint, the probabilistic approach based on the structural reliability theory is adopted to derive the reliability index and the failure probability by taking into account the uncertainties inherent in the material properties and load conditions. The limit state function is formulated in terms of the structural resistance of the material and the load effect which is described by the structural stress obtained by the MISS method. The reliability index is computed by use of the first-order reliability method (FORM), and compared with a target reliability index to facilitate the safety assessment. The results achieved from this study reveal that the calculation of the structural stress using the MISS method is insensitive to the element size and the element type, and the obtained structural stress results serve as a reliable basis for structural reliability analysis.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.37-53
• /
• 2009

In this paper the problem of calculating the probability that the responses of a wind-excited structure exceed specified thresholds within a given time interval is considered. The failure domain of the problem can be expressed as a union of elementary failure domains whose boundaries are of quadratic form. The Domain Decomposition Method (DDM) is employed, after being appropriately extended, to solve this problem. The probability estimate of the overall failure domain is given by the sum of the probabilities of the elementary failure domains multiplied by a reduction factor accounting for the overlapping degree of the different elementary failure domains. The DDM is extended with the help of Line Sampling (LS), from its original presentation where the boundary of the elementary failure domains are of linear form, to the current case involving quadratic elementary failure domains. An example involving an along-wind excited steel building shows the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed methodology as compared with that obtained using standard Monte Carlo simulations (MCS).

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.27 no.6
• /
• pp.635-642
• /
• 2014

In this paper, an efficient technique is developed to predict failure probability of three failure modes(case rupture, fracture and bolt breakage) related to solid rocket motor case due to the inner pressure during the mission flight. The overall procedure consists of the steps: 1) design parameters affecting the case failure are identified and their uncertainties are modelled by probability distribution, 2) combustion analysis in the interior of the case is carried out to obtain maximum expected operating pressure(MEOP), 3) stress and other structural performances are evaluated by finite element analysis(FEA), and 4) failure probabilities are calculated for the above mentioned failure modes. Axi-symmetric assumption for FEA is employed for simplification while contact between bolted joint is accounted for. Efficient procedure is developed to evaluate failure probability which consists of finding first an Most Probable Failure Point(MPP) using First-Order Reliability Method(FORM), next making a response surface model around the MPP using Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS), and finally calculating failure probability by employing Importance Sampling.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.33 no.6
• /
• pp.401-409
• /
• 2020

Seismic fragility assessments include a procedure to combine the random variables of response and capacity to produce the relationship between failure probability and seismic intensity. The evaluation of the failure probability of simultaneous multiple failures of two or more components assumes that the failure probability of each component is independent of those of the others. However, a correlation is expected to exist because several random factors have the same cause. The multiple-failure probability can differ depending on this correlation and may be unconservative without considering the seismic correlation. Therefore, a practical methodology for fragility assessment should be evaluated using the seismic correlation and correlation coefficient for each random variable. In this study, several random variables were selected for numerical evaluation of the correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient was then compared with each variable and the combined variables. The correlation coefficient using simplified and complex models were also compared to determine and analyze the differences between each of the approaches.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.6 no.7
• /
• pp.773-784
• /
• 1998

To assess the collapse risk of transmission line structures subject to natural hazards, it is important to identify what hazard may cause the structural collapse. In Australia and many other countries, a large proportion of failures of transmission line structures are caused by severe thunderstorms. Because the wind loads generated by thunderstorms are not only random but time-variant as well, a time-dependent structural reliability approach for the risk assessment of transmission line structures is essential. However, a lack of appropriate stochastic models for thunderstorm winds usually makes this kind of analysis impossible. The intention of the paper is to propose a stochastic model that could realistically and accurately simulate wind loading due to severe thunderstorms. With the proposed thunderstorm model, the collapse risk of transmission line structures under severe thunderstorms is assessed numerically based on the computed failure probability of the structure.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.24 no.68
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2001

A probabilistic model for fatigue life of a structural component is derived when the component is in a variable-amplitude loading environment. The physical mechanism which governs fatigue failure is used to model the fatigue life. Especially, the judgement of rotational symmetry in the-stress-intensity-factors results in the probability distribution for fatigue life. The probability distribution is related to the familiar truncated Gaussian distribution, which has a single parameter with a direct physical meaning.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
• /
• v.13 no.5
• /
• pp.567-575
• /
• 2001

In order to consider statistical properties of probability variables used in the structural analysis the conventional approach using the safety factor based on past experience usually estimated the safety of a structure Also the real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads material characters and the dimensions of the members. But the errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis Safety of structure could not precisely be appraised by the traditional structural design concept Recently new aproach based on the probability concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety using the reliability concept Thus the computer program by the Probabilitstic FEM is developed by incorporating the probabilistic concept into the conventional FEM method. This paper estimated for the reliability of a plane stress structure by Advanced First-Order Second Moment method using von Mises, Tresca and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterions. Verification of the reliability index and failure probability of attained by the Monte Carlo Simulation method with the von Mises criterion were same as PFEM, but the Monte Carlo Simulation were very time-consuming. The variance of member thickness and load could influence the reliability and failure probability most sensitively among the design variables from the results of the parameter analysis. The proper failure criterion according to characteristic of materials must be used for safe design.