• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic expected cost model

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(s, S ) Inventory Models with Ordering Quantity Dependent Stochastic Lead Times (제품인도기간이 주문량에 의존하여 변화하는 (s, S) 재고모형)

  • 김홍배;양성민
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.11 no.17
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 1988
  • A (s, S) inventory policy is studied for a continuous inventory model in which lead times are dependent on the ordering quantity. The model assumes that at most one order is outstanding and demands occur in a compound poison process. The steady-state probability distributions of the inventory levels are derived so as to determine the long-run expected average cost. And the computational procedure is presented.

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A Case Study on Function Point Method applying on Monte Carlo Simulation in Automotive Software Development

  • Do, Sung Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2020
  • Software development activities are influenced by stochastic theory rather than deterministic one due to having process variability. Stochastic methods factor in the uncertainties associated with project activities and provides insight into the expected project outputs as probability distributions rather than as deterministic approximations. Thus, successful software projects systematically manage and balance five objectives based on historical probability: scope, size, cost, effort, schedule, and quality. Although software size estimation having much uncertainty in initial development has traditionally performed using deterministic methods: LOC(Lines Of Code), COCOMO(COnsructive COst MOdel), FP(Function Point), SLIM(Software LIfecycle Management). This research aims to present a function point method based on stochastic distribution and a case study based on Monte Carlo Simulation applying on an automotive electrical and electronics system software development. It is expected that the result of this paper is used as guidance for establishing of function point method in organizations and tools for helping project managers make decisions correctly.

A New Ship Scheduling Set Packing Model Considering Limited Risk

  • Kim, Si-Hwa;Hwang, Hee-Su
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.30 no.7
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    • pp.561-566
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we propose a new ship scheduling set packing model considering limited risk or variance. The set packing model is used in many applications, such as vehicle routing, crew scheduling, ship scheduling, cutting stock and so on. As long as the ship scheduling is concerned, there exits many unknown external factors such as machine breakdown, climate change and transportation cost fluctuation. However, existing ship scheduling models have not considered those factors apparently. We use a quadratic set packing model to limit the variance of expected cost of ship scheduling problems under stochastic spot rates. Set problems are NP-complete, and additional quadratic constraint makes the problems much harder. We implement Kelley's cutting plane method to replace the hard quadratic constraint by many linear constrains and use branch-and-bound algorithm to get the optimal integral solution. Some meaningful computational results and comments are provided.

A Stochastic Optimization Model for Equipment Replacement Considering Life Uncertainty (수명의 불확실성을 반영한 추계학적 장비 대체시기 결정모형)

  • 박종인;김승권
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.100-110
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    • 2003
  • Equipment replacement policy may not be defined with certainty, because physical states of any technological system may not be determined with foresight. This paper presents Markov Decision Process(MDP) model for army equipment which is subject to the uncertainty of deterioration and ultimately to failure. The components of the MDP model is defined as follows: ⅰ) state is identified as the age of the equipment, ⅱ) actions are classified as 'keep' and 'replace', ⅲ) cost is defined as the expected cost per unit time associated with 'keep' and 'replace' actions, ⅳ) transition probability is derived from Weibull distribution. Using the MDP model, we can determine the optimal replacement policy for an army equipment replacement problem.

Determination of Secondary Reserve Requirement Through Interaction-dependent Clearance Between Ex-ante and Ex-post

  • Kim, Sun Kyo;Park, Joon-Hyung;Yoon, Yong Tae
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2014
  • This paper discusses a method for the determination of frequency control reserve requirement with consideration of the interaction between ex-ante planning and real-time balancing. In proposed method, we consider the fact that the delivered energy for tertiary control reserve is determined based on required capacity for secondary control reserve and the expected amount of load errors. Uncertain load errors are derived by Brownian motion, an optimization method is suggested using a stochastic programming. In a short, we propose an interactive dependent method for determining secondary control reserve requirement based on the principle that it satisfies to minimize the total cost. As a result, this paper provides will analyze for an example model to demonstrate the capabilities of the method.

On The Performance of A Suboptimal Assignment Policy in N-Queue m-Server System

  • Ko Soon-Ju
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.43-60
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    • 1991
  • Consider N queues without arrivals and with m identical servers. All jobs are independent and service requirements of jobs in a queue are i.i.d. random variables. At any time only one server may be assigned to a queue and switching between queues are allowed. A unit cost is imposed per job per unit time. The objective is to minimized the expected total cost. An flow approximation model is considered and an upperbound for the percentage error of best nonswitching policies to an optimal policy is found. It is shown that the best nonswitching policy is not worse than $11\%$ of an optimal policy For the stochastic model, we consider the case in which the service requirements of all jobs are i.i.d. with an exponential distribution. A longest first policy is shown to be optimal and a worst case analysis shows that the nonswitching policy which starts with the longest queues is not worse than $11\%$ of the optimal policy.

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A State-age Dependent Policy for a Shock Process - Structural Relationships of Optimal Policy -

  • Joo, Nam-Yun
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.23-39
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    • 1984
  • Consider a failure model for a stochastic system. A shock is any perturbation to the system which causes a random amount of damage to the system. Any of the shocks can cause the system to fail at shock times. The amount of damage at each shock is a function of the sum of the magnitudes of damage caused from all previous shocks. The times between shocks form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. The system must be replaced upon failure at some cost but it also can be replaced before failure at a lower cost. The long term expected cost per unit time criterion is used. Structural relationships of the optimal replacement policy under the appropriate regularity conditions will be developed. And these relationships will provide theoretical background for the algorithm development.

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Mathematical Model for Revenue Management with Overbooking and Costly Price Adjustment for Hotel Industries

  • Masruroh, Nur Aini;Mulyani, Yun Prihantina
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.207-223
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    • 2013
  • Revenue management (RM) has been widely used to model products characterized as perishable. Classical RM model assumed that price is the sole factor in the model. Thus price adjustment becomes a crucial and costly factor in business. In this paper, an optimal pricing model is developed based on minimization of soft customer cost, one kind of price adjustment cost and is solved by Lagrange multiplier method. It is formed by expected discounted revenue/bid price integrating quantity-based RM and pricing-based RM. Quantity-based RM consists of two capacity models, namely, booking limit and overbooking. Booking limit, built by assuming uncertain customer arrival, decides the optimal capacity allocation for two market segments. Overbooking determines the level of accepted order exceeding capacity to anticipate probability of cancellation. Furthermore, pricing-based RM models occupancy/demand rate influenced by internal and competitor price changes. In this paper, a mathematical model based on game theoretic approach is developed for two conditions of deterministic and stochastic demand. Based on the equilibrium point, the best strategy for both hotels can be determined.

Warranties for Products with Varying Usage Intensity

  • Kim, Jae Soong;Kim, Ji Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.24 no.64
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2001
  • Most warranty studies assume that the usage intensity is the same for all buyers. However, in real life the usage intensity varies across the population of buyers. In the general case, one can divide the population into $\kappa$ categories. This has implications for manufacturers of products. Should a manufacturer produce one product and offer different warranties for the $\kappa$ groups or produce different products (one for each group) and offer the same warranty. A warranty cost analysis is needed to choose between these options. The analysis complicated by factors such as adverse selection , buyers attitude to risk and the price structure. In this paper we develop models to study the expected warranty cost for products with free replacement warranty with varying usage intensity. Numerical examples are presented.

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A Continuous Review(s, S) Inventory Model in which Depletion is Due to Demand and Loss of Units

  • Choi, Jin-Yeong;Kim, Man-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 1985
  • A stochastic model for an inventory system in which depletion of stock takes place due to random demand as well as random loss of items is studied under the assumption that the intervals between successive unit demands, as well as those between successive unit losses are independently and identically distributed random variables having negative exponential distribution with respective parameters. We have derived the steady state probability distribution of the stock level assuming instantaneous delivery of order under (s, S) inventory policy. Also we have derived total expected cost expression and the necessary conditions to be satisfied for an optimal solution.

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