• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic analysis

Search Result 1,250, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Comparison of Delay Estimates for Signalized Intersection (신호교차로 지체 산정 비교)

  • Jo, Jun-Han;Jo, Yong-Chan;Kim, Seong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.67-80
    • /
    • 2005
  • In this paper, the primary objective of the research are to review the methods currently avaliable for estimating the delay incurred by vehicles at signalized intersections. The paper compares the delay estimates from a deterministic queueing model, a model based on shock wave theory , the steady-state Webster model, the queue-based models defined in the 1994 and 2001 version of the High way Capacity Manual, in addition to the delays estimated from the TRANSYT-7F macroscopic simulation and NETSIM microscopic simulation. More especially, this paper is to compare the delay estimates obtained using macroscopic and microscopic simulation tools against state-of-the practice analytical models that are derived from deterministic queueing and shock wave analysis theory. The results of the comparisons indicate that all delay models produce relatively similar results for signalized intersections with low traffic demand, but that increasing differences occur as the traffic demand approaches saturation. In particular, when the TRANSYT-7F and NETSIM are compared, it is highly differences as approach for traffic condition to over-saturation. Also, the NETSIM microscopic simulation is the lowest estimates among the various models.

Numerical Study of SPGD-based Phase Control of Coherent Beam Combining under Various Turbulent Atmospheric Conditions (대기외란에 따른 SPGD 기반 결맞음 빔결합 시스템 위상제어 동작성능 분석)

  • Kim, Hansol;Na, Jeongkyun;Jeong, Yoonchan
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
    • /
    • v.31 no.6
    • /
    • pp.247-258
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this paper, based on a stochastic parallel gradient descent (SPGD) algorithm we study phase control of a coherent-beam-combining system under turbulent atmospheric conditions. Based on the statistical theory of atmospheric turbulence, we carry out the analysis of the phase and wavefront distortion of a laser beam propagating through a turbulent atmospheric medium. We also conduct numerical simulations of a coherent-beam-combining system with 7- and 19-channel laser beams distorted by atmospheric turbulence. Through numerical simulations, we characterize the phase-control characteristics and efficiency of the coherent-beam-combining system under various degrees of atmospheric turbulence. It is verified that the SPGD algorithm is capable of realizing 7-channel coherent beam combining with a beam-combining efficiency of more than 90%, even under the turbulent atmospheric conditions up to cn2 of 10-13 m-2/3. In the case of 19-channel coherent beam combining, it is shown that the same turbulent atmospheric conditions result in a drastic reduction of the beam-combining efficiency down to 60%, due to the elevated impact of the corresponding refractive-index inhomogeneity. In addition, by putting together the number of iterations of the SPGD algorithm required for phase locking under atmospheric turbulence and the time intervals of atmospheric phenomena, which typically are of the order of ㎲, it is estimated that hundreds of MHz to a few GHz of computing bandwidth of SPGD-based phase control may be required for a coherent-beam-combining system to confront such turbulent atmospheric conditions. We expect the results of this paper to be useful for quantitatively analyzing and predicting the effects of atmospheric turbulence on the SPGD-based phase-control performance of a coherent-beam-combining system.

Analysis of CO/CO2 Ratio Variability According to the Origin of Greenhouse Gas at Anmyeon-do (안면도 지역 온실기체 기원에 따른 CO/CO2 비율 변동성 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Jaemin;Lee, Haeyoung;Kim, Sumin;Chung, Chu-Yong;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Lee, Greem;Choi, Kyung Bae;Lee, Yun Gon
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.31 no.5
    • /
    • pp.625-635
    • /
    • 2021
  • South Korea established the 2050 Carbon Neutral Plan in response to the climate crisis, and to achieve this policy, it is very important to monitor domestic carbon emissions and atmospheric carbon concentration. Both CO2 and CO are emitted from fossil fuel combustion processes, but the relative ratios depend on the combustion efficiency and the strength of local emission regulations. In this study, the relationship between CO2 and CO was analyzed using ground observation data for the period of 2018~2020 at Anmyeon-do site and the CO/CO2 ratio according to regional origin during high CO2 cases was investigated based on the footprint simulated from Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. CO2 and CO showed a positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.66 (p < 0.01), and averaged footprints during high CO2 cases confirmed that air particles mainly originated from eastern and north-eastern China, and inland of Korean Peninsula. In addition, it was revealed that among the cases of high CO2 concentration, when the CO/CO2 ratio is high, the industrial area of eastern China is greatly affected, and when the ratio is low, the contribution of the domestic region is relatively high. The ratio of CO2 and CO in this study is significant in that it can be used as a useful factor in determining the possibility of domestic and foreign origins of climate pollutants.

Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use Change on Hydrology and Stream Water Quality of Anseongcheon Watershed Using SWAT Model (II) (SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화 및 토지이용 변화에 따른 안성천 유역 수문 - 수질 변화 분석 (II))

  • Lee, Yong Jun;An, So Ra;Kang, Boosik;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.28 no.6B
    • /
    • pp.665-673
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study is to assess the future potential climate and land use change impact on streamflow and stream water quality of the study watershed using the established model parameters (I). The CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) CGCM2 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) based on IPCC SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios were adopted for future climate condition, and the data were downscaled by Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Random Cascade Model technique. The future land use condition was predicted by using modified CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov chain) technique with the past time series of Landsat satellite images. The model was applied for the future extreme precipitation cases of around 2030, 2060 and 2090. The predicted results showed that the runoff ratio increased 8% based on the 2005 precipitation (1160.1 mm) and runoff ratio (65%). Accordingly the Sediment, T-N and T-P also increased 120%, 16% and 10% respectively for the case of 50% precipitation increase. This research has the meaning in providing the methodological procedures for the evaluation of future potential climate and land use changes on watershed hydrology and stream water quality. This model result are expected to plan in advance for healthy and sustainable watershed management and countermeasures of climate change.

Optimization of Single-stage Mixed Refrigerant LNG Process Considering Inherent Explosion Risks (잠재적 폭발 위험성을 고려한 단단 혼합냉매 LNG 공정의 설계 변수 최적화)

  • Kim, Ik Hyun;Dan, Seungkyu;Cho, Seonghyun;Lee, Gibaek;Yoon, En Sup
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.52 no.4
    • /
    • pp.467-474
    • /
    • 2014
  • Preliminary design in chemical process furnishes economic feasibility through calculation of both mass balance and energy balance and makes it possible to produce a desired product under the given conditions. Through this design stage, the process possesses unchangeable characteristics, since the materials, reactions, unit configuration, and operating conditions were determined. Unique characteristics could be very economic, but it also implies various potential risk factors as well. Therefore, it becomes extremely important to design process considering both economics and safety by integrating process simulation and quantitative risk analysis during preliminary design stage. The target of this study is LNG liquefaction process. By the simulation using Aspen HYSYS and quantitative risk analysis, the design variables of the process were determined in the way to minimize the inherent explosion risks and operating cost. Instead of the optimization tool of Aspen HYSYS, the optimization was performed by using stochastic optimization algorithm (Covariance Matrix Adaptation-Evolution Strategy, CMA-ES) which was implemented through automation between Aspen HYSYS and Matlab. The research obtained that the important variable to enhance inherent safety was the operation pressure of mixed refrigerant. The inherent risk was able to be reduced about 4~18% by increasing the operating cost about 0.5~10%. As the operating cost increases, the absolute value of risk was decreased as expected, but cost-effectiveness of risk reduction had decreased. Integration of process simulation and quantitative risk analysis made it possible to design inherently safe process, and it is expected to be useful in designing the less risky process since risk factors in the process can be numerically monitored during preliminary process design stage.

Impacts assessment of Climate changes in North Korea based on RCP climate change scenarios II. Impacts assessment of hydrologic cycle changes in Yalu River (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 북한지역의 수문순환 변화 영향 평가 II. 압록강유역의 미래 수문순환 변화 영향 평가)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Kang, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.21 no.spc
    • /
    • pp.39-50
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study aims to assess the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle at a basin level in North Korea. The selected model for this study is MRI-CGCM 3, the one used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, this study adopted the Spatial Disaggregation-Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM), which is one of the stochastic downscaling techniques, to conduct the bias correction for climate change scenarios. The comparison between the preapplication and postapplication of the SDQDM supported the study's review on the technique's validity. In addition, as this study determined the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle, it also observed the runoff in North Korea. In predicting such influence, parameters of a runoff model used for the analysis should be optimized. However, North Korea is classified as an ungauged region for its political characteristics, and it was difficult to collect the country's runoff observation data. Hence, the study selected 16 basins with secured high-quality runoff data, and the M-RAT model's optimized parameters were calculated. The study also analyzed the correlation among variables for basin characteristics to consider multicollinearity. Then, based on a phased regression analysis, the study developed an equation to calculate parameters for ungauged basin areas. To verify the equation, the study assumed the Osipcheon River, Namdaecheon Stream, Yongdang Reservoir, and Yonggang Stream as ungauged basin areas and conducted cross-validation. As a result, for all the four basin areas, high efficiency was confirmed with the efficiency coefficients of 0.8 or higher. The study used climate change scenarios and parameters of the estimated runoff model to assess the changes in hydrological cycle processes at a basin level from climate change in the Amnokgang River of North Korea. The results showed that climate change would lead to an increase in precipitation, and the corresponding rise in temperature is predicted to cause elevating evapotranspiration. However, it was found that the storage capacity in the basin decreased. The result of the analysis on flow duration indicated a decrease in flow on the 95th day; an increase in the drought flow during the periods of Future 1 and Future 2; and an increase in both flows for the period of Future 3.

PCA­based Waveform Classification of Rabbit Retinal Ganglion Cell Activity (주성분분석을 이용한 토끼 망막 신경절세포의 활동전위 파형 분류)

  • 진계환;조현숙;이태수;구용숙
    • Progress in Medical Physics
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.211-217
    • /
    • 2003
  • The Principal component analysis (PCA) is a well-known data analysis method that is useful in linear feature extraction and data compression. The PCA is a linear transformation that applies an orthogonal rotation to the original data, so as to maximize the retained variance. PCA is a classical technique for obtaining an optimal overall mapping of linearly dependent patterns of correlation between variables (e.g. neurons). PCA provides, in the mean-squared error sense, an optimal linear mapping of the signals which are spread across a group of variables. These signals are concentrated into the first few components, while the noise, i.e. variance which is uncorrelated across variables, is sequestered in the remaining components. PCA has been used extensively to resolve temporal patterns in neurophysiological recordings. Because the retinal signal is stochastic process, PCA can be used to identify the retinal spikes. With excised rabbit eye, retina was isolated. A piece of retina was attached with the ganglion cell side to the surface of the microelectrode array (MEA). The MEA consisted of glass plate with 60 substrate integrated and insulated golden connection lanes terminating in an 8${\times}$8 array (spacing 200 $\mu$m, electrode diameter 30 $\mu$m) in the center of the plate. The MEA 60 system was used for the recording of retinal ganglion cell activity. The action potentials of each channel were sorted by off­line analysis tool. Spikes were detected with a threshold criterion and sorted according to their principal component composition. The first (PC1) and second principal component values (PC2) were calculated using all the waveforms of the each channel and all n time points in the waveform, where several clusters could be separated clearly in two dimension. We verified that PCA-based waveform detection was effective as an initial approach for spike sorting method.

  • PDF

Mediation analysis of dietary habits, nutrient intakes, daily life in the relationship between working hours of Korean shift workers and metabolic syndrome : the sixth (2013 ~ 2015) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (교대근무자의 근무시간과 대사증후군의 관계에서 식습관, 영양섭취상태, 일상생활의 매개효과 분석 : 6기 국민건강영양조사 (2013 ~ 2015) 데이터 이용)

  • Kim, Yoona;Kim, Hyeon Hee;Lim, Dong Hoon
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • v.51 no.6
    • /
    • pp.567-579
    • /
    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study examined the mediation effects of dietary habits, nutrient intake, daily life in the relationship between the working hours of Korean shift workers and metabolic syndrome. Methods: Data were collected from the sixth (2013-2015) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The stochastic regression imputation was used to fill missing data. Statistical analysis was performed in Korean shift workers with metabolic syndrome using the SPSS 24 program for Windows and a structural equation model (SEM) using an analysis of moment structure (AMOS) 21.0 package. Results: The model fitted the data well in terms of the goodness of fit index (GFI) = 0.939, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.025, normed fit index (NFI) = 0.917, Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) = 0.984, comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.987, and adjusted goodness of fit index (AGFI) = 0.915. Specific mediation effect of dietary habits (p = 0.023) was statistically significant in the impact of the working hours of shift workers on nutrient intake, and specific mediation effect of daily life (p = 0.019) was statistically significant in the impact of the working hours of shift workers on metabolic syndrome. On the other hand, the dietary habits, nutrient intake and daily life had no significant multiple mediator effects on the working hours of shift workers with metabolic syndrome. Conclusion: The appropriate model suggests that working hours have direct effect on the daily life, which has the mediation effect on the risk of metabolic syndrome in shift workers.

A Study on Research of Necessity and Practice of Contents of Clothing and Textiles Education (의생활 교육내용의 필요도와 실천도 조사 연구)

  • 박일록;이은희
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.89-103
    • /
    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate to relation of necessity and practice of contents of clothing and textiles education(classify them into four units, choice and dressing of clothes, textile and management of clothes, design and sewing of clothes, knitting and embroidery). Method of posing a questionnaire is adopted to obtain stochastic data required for pertinent analysis. This is the investigation of which 400 (high school students 204, university students 196) girl students located in Choongnam and Junrabookdo province. In this statistical analysis, SPSS 10.0 for Windows Program was utilized to calculate percentage, mean and standard deviation. Also, these materials were verified by t-test, One-way Anova, Pearson's correlation coefficient. The results of this research were as follows. First, girl students' necessity mean point were higher than practice mean point about the contents of clothing and textiles education. And necessity had a positive relationship with practices of contents of clothing and textiles education. Second, there was a significant difference in necessity and practice of contents of clothing and textiles education according to demographic variables. These results should be provide fundamental information for improving students' critical practice in their real life. Since this study has touched only limited research on the topic of clothing and textiles education, it is essential that further research covering a wider array of themes be done in the future. this study has touched only limited research on the topic of clothing and textiles education, it is essential that further research covering a wider array of themes be done in the future.

  • PDF

The Phenomenological Comparison between Results from Single-hole and Cross-hole Hydraulic Test (균열암반 매질 내 단공 및 공간 간섭 시험에 대한 현상적 비교)

  • Kim, Tae-Hee;Kim, Kue-Young;Oh, Jun-Ho;Hwang, Se-Ho
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.12 no.5
    • /
    • pp.39-53
    • /
    • 2007
  • Generally, fractured medium can be described with some key parameters, such as hydraulic conductivities or random field of hydraulic conductivities (continuum model), spatial and statistical distribution of permeable fractures (discrete fracture network model). Investigating the practical applicability of the well-known conceptual models for the description of groundwater flow in fractured media, various types of hydraulic tests were applied to studies on the highly fractured media in Geumsan, Korea. Results from single-hole packer test show that the horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the permeable media are between $7.67{\times}10^{-10}{\sim}3.16{\times}10^{-6}$ m/sec, with $7.70{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec arithmetic mean and $2.16{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec geometric mean. Total number of test interval is 110 at 8 holes. The number of completely impermeable interval is 9, and the low permeable interval - below $1.0{\times}10^{-8}$ m/sec is 14. In other words, most of test intervals are permeable. The vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivities shows apparently the good correlation with the results of flowmeter test. But the results from the cross-hole test show some different features. The results from the cross-hole test are highly related to the connectivity and/or the binary properties of fractured media; permeable and impermeable. From the viewpoint of the connection, the application of the general stochastic approach with a single continuum model may not be appropriate even in the moderately or highly permeable fractured medium. Then, further studies on the investigation method and the analysis procedures should be required for the reasonable and practical design of the conceptual model, with which the binary properties, including permeable/impermeable features, can be described.