• Title/Summary/Keyword: statistical reasoning

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

The Effects of Perceived Parenting Attitudes and Emotional Problems on Life Satisfaction among Adolescents in Single Parent Families (한부모 가정의 청소년이 지각한 부모양육태도 및 정서적 문제가 삶의 만족도에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Ju-Hee
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to propose measure for the effects of perceived parenting attitudes and emotional problems on life satisfaction among adolescents in single parent families with the parent resource perspective. The study consisted of 230 first grade middle school students from single parent (living with either mother or father only) families in the 4th year panel (2013) of the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS), National Youth Policy Institute (NYPI). All statistical data analyses were performed using SPSS version 21.0. The findings of this study are as follows. First, lower levels of depression and aggression were found among adolescents who perceived parenting attitude as more affectionate. On the contrary, higher levels of depression and aggression were detected among adolescents who perceived parenting attitude as more intrusiveness. The more the inconsistent parenting practices perceived by adolescents, the higher the degree of depression. Second, a higher level of life satisfaction was found among adolescent who were more likely to perceive positive parenting attitudes including monitoring, affection and reasoning. However, there was no significant correlation between negative parenting behavior and life satisfaction. Third, a lower level of life satisfaction was observed among adolescent who were more likely to perceive emotional problems such as depression, aggression and social withdrawal. Fourth, according to the analysis on the effects of parenting attitudes and emotional problems on life satisfaction, affection parenting of all positive parenting styles and depression among emotional problems had an impact on life satisfaction. The more affectionate a parent is with his/her children in parenting, the lower the degree of depression in adolescents, and the lower degree of depression in adolescents, the higher degree of life satisfaction was found among adolescents from single parent households.

A Didactical Analysis on the Degree of Freedom (자유도의 교수학적 분석)

  • Kim, Changil;Jeon, Youngju
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.239-257
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes the degree of freedom with three aspects: as academic knowledge, in the curriculum focused on textbooks, and students' understanding of the degree of freedom. The results provide five critical points. First, we need discussions on whether to include the degree of freedom in the curriculum. Second, we need to reconsider the current way textbooks are described. Third, there should be a didactical analysis to advance students' understanding of the concept of the degree of freedom. Fourth, there are limitations in learning the concept of the degree of freedom in the current textbook learning environment. Fifth, a didactical check of sampling distribution such as sample mean, sample variance, and sample standard deviation is required. The implications were drawn that the emphasis on statistical reasoning education in the curriculum and careful consideration of introducing the t-distribution curriculum was required.

Professional Socialization of Medical Students (의대생의 전문직 사회화 과정에 대한 고찰)

  • Han, Dal-Sun;Cho, Byung-Hee;Bae, Sang-Soo;Kim, Chang-Yup;Lee, Sang-Il;Lee, Young-Jo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.2 s.53
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    • pp.265-278
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    • 1996
  • This paper concerns professional socialization of medical students. Professional socialization, in the context of this paper, means the process through which a layperson becomes a doctor equipped with professional identity and values. While medical education does not include such process in the curriculum, medical students obtain certain values and identity informally. The dependent variables were professional values and professionalism. The former means the desirable attributes required to conducting professional works such as humane attitudes, science-oriented mind, capability for organizational management. The latter means socio-political reasoning with which doctors can rationalize their privileges such as autonomy. A specially designed questionnaire was developed. The data were collected from five medical schools for 1,318 students in 1994. A total of 1,070 cases were finally included in the statistical analysis. The students emphasized the human factor in the professional values. Their attitude did not change with the grade. Other independent variables such as motives for entering a medical school, socioeconomic status, satisfaction with medical education, etc. also did not influence professinal values. It implies that professional values were not consolidated among the students. However, the factors of professionalism change significantly with the grade. It implies that the students paid more attention to socio-political issues related to doctor's interests as the grade went up. And the factor scores for professionalism were higher for those students who had more positive attitude towards doing medical practice for profit, expected higher income, and were more conservative about social reform. Other independent variables did not influence professionalism. It seems that the students also give emphasis on professionalism, like current medical doctors, mainly because of their concern with recent unfavorable changes in economic conditions of medical care providers.

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Normal Range of Blood Pressure of Korean (한국인혈압(韓國人血壓)의 정상치역(正常値域))

  • Kim, In-Dal;Ahn, Yoon-Ok;Cho, Soo-Hun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.395-401
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    • 1974
  • In order to figure out the normal range, lower limit of hypertension and upper limit of hypotension of the blood pressure of Korean, authors had measured blood pressure according to Korotkow's method for 31,897 healthy persons as samples who were occupied different levels of the social class except cases who would seem to be the essential hypertension and had the diseases affecting to secondary hypertension. A following conclusion was induced by actual measurement and statistical reasoning. 1. The normal range and limits of hypo- and hypertension by sex and age groups of Korean were demonstrated in Table 1 and Figure 1. 2. The more aging the higher value of blood pressure in both sexes, especially women rather than men and systolic as to diastolic. 3. Generally, blood pressure values of female were lower than male, after 55 years of age, however, the crossing phenomenon was recognizable. 4. To settle the normal and abnormal ranges of the blood pressure of Korean, it was attempted that $M{\pm}1.282{\sigma}$ as normal range, $M+2{\sigma}$ as lower limit of hypertension and $M-2{\sigma}$ as upper limit of hypotension were calculated, and regression lines were drawn to adjust the biological variables and derive continuity from each age class. (Fig. 2 and 3) 5. The blood pressure levels were becoming elevated as to getting increased of the body weight, particularly diastolic value at 40-49 age group in male and systolic value at 30-39 age group in female.

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A Comparison of Piagetian and Psychometric Assessments of Intelligence (Piaget식 지능과 심리측정적 지능간의 비교 분석)

  • Wang, Young Hee
    • Korean Journal of Child Studies
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    • v.4
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    • pp.37-51
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    • 1983
  • The purpose of this study was the investigation of theoretical and empirical relationships between Piagetian and psychometric assessments of intelligence. Specifically, the factor structure of Piagetian-type scales, the relationship between Piagetian scales and psychometric intelligence tests, and differences in the factor structure of Piagetian and psychometric assessments of intelligence were studied. The subjects of this stuby were 70 children (35 boys and 35 girls) in the 1st grade of an elementary school in Seoul The Piagetian-type scales and the K-WISC were administered individually, and the General Intelligence Test was administered to groups of children. Statistical analysis of the obtained data consisted of the SPSS Computer program including factor analysis and Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient. The Piagetian-type scales were found to consist of three factors, which accounted for 55 percent of the total common-factor variance. Factor-I was a factor indicating "conservation". Factor-II was a factor indicating "moral judgements". Factor-III was a factor indicating "classification and identity". Correlations between subtests of psychometric tests and Piagetian scales were relatively low or moderate. Relations between IQs assessed by the psychometric tests and Piagetian scales were also relativeyly low or moderate. Eight factors were extracted from the joint factor analysis of psychometric intelligence tests and Piagetian scales, and they accounted for 67 percent of the total common-factor variance. Factors-I, II, III, and V consisted of subtests of psychometric assessments, and Factors-IV, VI, VII and VIII were composed of Piagetian scales. Factor-I was a factor for "reasoning ability based upon language". Factor-II was a factor for "performance ability". Factor-III was a factor for "grouping ability". Factor-IV was a factor for "conservation". Factor-V was a factor indicating "symbol and language usage ability". Factor- VI was a factor indicating "moral judgments". Factor-VII was a factor indicating "length consevation". Factor-VIII was a factor indicating "classification and identity".

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A Study on the Curriculum Development and the Management of Basic College Mathematics Courses (기초수학 교육과정 개발 및 운영에 대한 제언)

  • Kim, Yeon Mi
    • Journal of Engineering Education Research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.58-68
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    • 2013
  • Few colleges offer remedial basic math courses for college freshmen who have not passed math placement tests or whose scholastic aptitude test score in mathematics is low. This research is aiming for the curriculum development of basic college mathematics and its effective implementation. First, an in depth statistical analysis on the basic math courses for universities in Seoul area has been done. Second, diagnostic test and longitudinal study have been carried out for one institute. Based on these, basic concepts and areas critical for the success of Calculus course are extracted. Standards and contents for the remedial math courses are suggested.

Korean High School Students' Understanding of the Concept of Correlation (우리나라 고등학생들의 상관관계 이해도 조사)

  • No, A Ra;Yoo, Yun Joo
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.467-490
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    • 2013
  • Correlation is a basic statistical concept which is necessary for understanding the relationship between two variables when they change values. In the middle school curriculum of Korea, only informal definition of correlation is taught with two-way data representations such as scatter plots and contingency tables. In this study, we investigated Korean high school students' understanding of correlation using a test consisting of 35 items about interpretation of scatter plot, contingency table, and text in realistic situation. 216 students from a high school in Seoul took the test for 20 minutes. From the results, we could observe the following: First, students did not have right criteria for determining the strength of correlation presented in scatter plots. Most of students could determine if there is correlation/no correlation and if the correlation is positive/negative by seeing the data presented in scatter plots. However, they did not judge by the closeness to the regression line but rather judged by the closeness between data points. Second, when statements about comparing the strength of correlation in the context of real life situation were given in text, the students had difficulty in understanding the distribution-related characteristic of the bi-variate data. Students had difficulty in figuring out the local distribution characteristic of data, which cannot be guessed merely based on the expression 'The correlation is strong' without statistical knowledge of correlation. Third, a large number of students could not judge the association between two variabels using conditional proportions when qualitative data are given in 2-by-2 tables. They made judgement by the absolute cell count and when the marginal sum of two categories are different for explanatory variable they thought the association could not be determined. From these results, we concluded that educational measures are required in order to remove such misconceptions and to improve understanding of correlation. Considering that the current mathematics curriculum does not cover the concept of correlation, we need to improve the curriculum as well.

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A Study on Pre-Service Teachers' Understanding of Random Variable (확률변수 개념에 대한 예비교사의 이해)

  • Choi, Jiseon;Yun, Yong Sik;Hwang, Hye Jeang
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.19-37
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    • 2014
  • This study investigated the degree of understanding pre-service teachers' random variable concept, based on the attention and the importance for developing pre-service teachers' ability on statistical reasoning in statistics education. To accomplish this, the subject of this study was 70 pre-service teachers belonged to three universities respectively. The teachers were given to 7 tasks on random variable and requested to solve them in 40 minutes. The tasks consisted of three contents in large; 1) one was on the definition of random variables, 2) the other was on the understanding of random variables in different/diverse conditions, and 3) another was on problem solving relevant to random variable concept. The findings are as follows. First, while 20% of pre-service teachers understood the definition of random variable correctly, most teachers could not distinguish between random variable and variable or probability. Second, there was a significant difference in understanding random variables in different/diverse conditions. Namely, the degree of understanding on the continuous random variable was superior to that of discrete random variable and also the degree of understanding on the equal distribution was superior to that of unequality distribution. Third, three types of problems relevant to random variable concept dealt with in this study were finding a sample space and an elementary event, and finding a probability value. In result, the teachers responded to the problem on finding a probability value most correctly and on the contrary to this, they had the mot difficulty in solving the problem on finding a sample space.

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Effects of Professional Development for Equity: Focusing on High School Students' Attitudes toward Mathematics (교육 형평성을 위한 고등학교 수학 교사 교육 시행 효과: 학생들의 수학 정의적 영역을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yeon
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.751-774
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    • 2017
  • Having mathematics for everyone in terms of students' mathematics achievement and attitudes toward mathematics is challenging in high school in South Korea. To gain such purpose, teachers are supposed to have a considerable amount of knowledge and develop mathematical and pedagogical reasoning and insight because equity can be fulfilled in mathematics classroom when any student share their ideas and have mathematical discussions. As a part of a large project aimed to develop and enact professional development for equity and examine its effects and, finally, to propose the direction of professional development to help students cognitively and affectively balanced grow in mathematics, the current study briefly introduces how such professional development was designed and implemented. This study reports its effect based on the statistical analysis of students' responses for the three different surveys, which are parts of the National Assessment of Educational Achievement study, TIMSS Advanced, and the survey about classroom interaction. The data collected in all students in school whose three mathematics teachers had participated in the professional development for two years. The findings consistently indicate the strong and impressive growths in students' attitudes toward mathematics, which are statistically significant. Furthermore, their attitudes toward mathematics are also related to interactions in a mathematics classroom. Based on such results, this study claims expansion of professional development for equity.