• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.257-266
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• 2012

Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) has become increasingly used as a rapid, accurate method of evaluating some chemical constituents in cereal and dired animal forages. Analysis of forage quality by NIRS usually involves dry grinding samples. Costs might be reduced if samples could be analyzed without drying or grinding. The objective of this study was to investigate effect of sample preparations on prediction ability of chemical composition and fermentation parameter for Italian ryegrass silages by NIRS. A population of 147 Italian ryegrass silages representing a wide range in chemical parameters were used in this investigation. Samples were scanned at 1nm intervals over the wavelength range 680-2500 nm and the optical data recorded as log 1/Reflectance (log 1/R) and scanned in oven-dried grinding and fresh ungrinding condition. The spectral data were regressed against a range of chemical parameters using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate analysis in conjunction with four spectral math treatments to reduced the effect of extraneous noise. The optimum calibrations were selected on the basis of minimizing the standard error of cross validation (SECV) and maximizing the correlation coefficient of cross validation (${R^2}_{CV}$). The results of this study show that NIRS predicted the chemical parameters with high degree of accuracy in oven-dried grinding treatment except for moisture contents. Prediction accuracy of the moisture contents was better for fresh ungrinding treatment (SECV 1.37%, $R^2$ 0.96) than for oven-dried grinding treatments (SECV 4.31%, $R^2$ 0.68). Although the statistical indexes for accuracy of the prediction were the lower in fresh ungrinding treatment, fresh treatment may be acceptable when processing is costly or when some changes in component due to the processing are expected. Results of this experiment showed the possibility of NIRS method to predict the chemical composition and fermentation parameter of Italian ryegrass silages as routine analysis method in feeding value evaluation and for farmer advice.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.49-73
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• 1996

This study produces quantitatively weather entropy and information ratio using information theory about frequency in the appearance of precipitation phenomenon and monthly change, and then applies them to observation of the change of their space scale by time. As a result of these, this study defines Pusan, Chongju and Kwangju's weather representativeness and then establishes the range of weather representativeness. Based on weather entropy (statistical parameter)-the amount of average weather information-and information ratio, we can define each area's weather representativeness, which can show us more constant form included topographical, geographical factors and season change. The data used for this study are the daily precipitotion and cloudiness during the recent five years($1990{\sim}1994$) at the 69 stations in Korea. It is divided into class of no precipitation, that of precipitation. The results of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) The four season's mean value of information ratio is the highest value. as 0.641, on the basis of Chongju. It is the lowest as 0.572, on the basis of Pusan. On a seasonal basis, the highest mean value of information rate is April's (spring) in Chongju, and the lowest is October's(fall) in Pusan. Accordingly weather representativeness has the highest in Chongju and the lowest in Pusan. (2) To synthesize information ratio of decaying tendancy and half-decay distance, Chonju's weather representativeness has the highest in April, July and October. And kwangju has the highest value in January and the lowest in April and July. Pusan's weather representativeness is not high, that of Pusan's October is the lowest in the year. (3) If we establish the weather representative character on the basis of Chongju-Pusan, the domain of Chongju area is larger than that of Pusan area in October, July and April in order. But Pusan's is larger than Chongju's in January. In the case of Chongju and Kwangju, the domain of Chongju area is larger than that of Kwangju in October, July and April in order, but it is less than that of Kwangju area in January. In the case of Kwangju-Pusan, the domain of Kwangju is larger than that of Pusan in October, July in order. But in April it is less than Pusan's.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.203-214
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• 2017

There are two references of genetic information in Korean soybean cultivar. This study suggested that the new seven genetic information to supplement the uncertainty on prediction of potential yield of two references in soybean, and assessed the availability of two references and seven genetic information for future research. We carried out evaluate the prediction on flowering time and potential yield of the two references of genetic parameters and the new seven genetic parameters (New1~New7); the new seven genetic parameters were calibrated in Jinju, Suwon, Chuncheon during 2003-2006. As a result, in the individual and regional combination genetic parameters, the statistical indicators of the genetic parameters of the each site or the genetic parameters of the participating stations showed improved results, but did not significant. In Daegu, Miryang, and Jeonju, the predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of New7 was not improved than that of two references. However, the genetic parameters of New7 showed improvement of predictability on potential yield. No predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of two references as having the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) on flowering time respectively, at 0.00 and 0.01, but the predictability of genetic parameter of New7 was improved as $R^2$ on flowering time of New7 was 0.31 in Miryang. On the other hand, $R^2$ on potential yield of genetic parameters of two references were respectively 0.66 and 0.41, but no predictability on potential yield of genetic parameter of New7 as $R^2$ of New7 showed 0.00 in Jeonju. However, it is expected that the regional combination genetic parameters with the good evaluation can be utilized to predict the flowering timing and potential yields of other regions. Although it is necessary to analyze further whether or not the input data is uncertain.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.738-743
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• 2009

Background: There is no standardized tool and parameter that can accurately assess the sympathetic function before and after performing sympathectomy in patients with primary palmar hyperhidrosis. We examined the effective-ness of the sympathetic skin response (SSR) study for documenting the change of sympathetic denervation before and after performing selective thoracic sympathicotomy. Material and Method: We prospectively investigated the SSR from 12 healthy subjects who were diagnosed with primary hyperhidrosis. Each SSR was recorded on the right palm or sole with electrical stimuli applied to the skin at the left wrist and foot and vice versa for the controlateral side. This test was performed before, 2 weeks and 1 year after selective thoracic sympathicotomy. The data was corrected for the onset latency and the amplitude of the SSR (n=24). Result: The mean age of the 12 patients was $24.6{\pm}0.4$ years (range: 19~36) and the gender ratio was 1 : 0.7. The mean values of the preoperative, postoperative 2 weeks and postoperative 1 year onset latency and amplitude of the palmar side (n=24) were $1.46{\pm}0.24$ msec and $6,043{\pm}2,339{\mu}V$, $1.63{\pm}0.42$ msec and $823{\pm}638{\mu}V$, and $1.44{\pm}0.39$ msec and $2,412{\pm}1,546{\mu}V$, respectively. The mean values of the plantar side (n=38) were $1.83{\pm}0.42$ msec and $2,816{\pm}1,694{\mu}V$, $2.16{\pm}0.39$ msec and $1,445{\pm}1,281{\mu}V$ and $1.95{\pm}0.25$ msec and $1,622{\pm}865{\mu}V$, respectively. Among the documented parameters, only the palmar amplitude (p=0.002) showed statistical significance in recording the change of the sympathetic system within the same individual for the pre and postoperative period. Conclusion: The SSR amplitude ratio may be a useful parameter for documenting the efficacy of sympathetic denervation after selective sympathicotomy.

• 한국노년학
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.1279-1295
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• 2008

This study was done to find out the effects that group art therapy would have on low rank cognitive functions and the self-esteem of the elderly with dementia. The study subjects were four elderly females with light dementia symptoms who scored lower than 19 points on the MMSE-K(Mini Mental State Examination-Korea) test. They were chosen from the ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$ Senior Welfare Service Center located in Seoul. A total of 15 sessions of a group art therapy were given once a week for 60 minutes from January 15th to April 30th of 2008, the research tools employed were the MMSE-K and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale on which a pre-test and a post-test were given. The results obtained are as follows. First, it was shown that group art therapy is effective to improve the cognitive functions of the elderly with dementia. According to the pre-tests and post -tests based on MMSE-K, the average score improved from 16.75 to 19.75, using Wilcoxon non-parameter statistics, verification resultant p-value which significant difference exhibited as .046, from the pre-tests and post-test, the average score improved in the subordinate areas of Orientation, Registration, Attention and Calculation, language function, understanding and judgment but there was no significant difference, memory recollection improved by a score of 0.70 according to the pre-test and post-test. using Wilcoxon non-parameter statistics, the verification resultant p-value which significant difference exhibited as .043. Second, it appeared with the fact that group art therapy effects the Self-Esteem of the elderly with dementia. From the verifications of a pre-test and post-test on Self-Esteem, the average score improved from 20.75 to 24.25, the effectiveness of the program was given proven by statistically considering the statistical resultant p-value of .048.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.135-149
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• 2019

Today, a growing number of companies are in trouble because leaders are lack of authentic leadership. Small and midium sized companies have the same issue. To correct the issue, there must be a real change in the relationship between managers and employees of the company as well as outside the company. In 21st century, authentic leadership is required. However, the research about determinants of change supportive behavior is not sufficient. Therefore, the purpose of this study is how manager's transformational leadership and authentic leadership affects change supportive behavior of employees in small and midium sized companies. The study also has to prove the role of positive psychological capital as a parameter. Data were collected from 424 employees working for small and midium sized companies in metropolitan area around Seoul and Gyeonggi. The data were analyzed using statistical package SPSS ver.21.0 and AMOS ver.18.0. Based on the research, First, the transformational leadership does not affect the change supportive behavior. However, authentic leadership affects the change supportive behavior. Also, positive psychological capital playes a role as parameter when transformational and authentic leadership, that are independent variable, affect change supportive behavior. On the other hand, the research shows that authentic leadership has more influence than transformational leadership on positive psychological capital. Transformational leadership without genuine attitude cannot affect change support behavior of employees in small and medium sized companies. Therefore, to affect change supportive behavior of employee, authentic leadership with genuine mind is required. After discussing the conclusions and implications of this study. the direction of the study for the follow - up study was suggested.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.241-254
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• 2011

Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.40-53
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• 2008

Groundwater pollution prediction methods have been developed to plan the sustainable groundwater usage and protection from potential pollution in many countries. DRASTIC established by US EPA is the most widely used groundwater vulnerability mapping method. However, the DRASTIC showed limitation in predicting the groundwater contamination because the DRASTIC method is designed to embrace only hydrogeologic factors. Therefore, in this study, three different methods were applied to improve a groundwater pollution prediction method: US EPA DRASTIC, Modified-DRASTIC suggested by Panagopoulos et al. (2006), and LSDG (Land use, Soil drainage, Depth to water, Geology) proposed by Rupert (1999). The Modified-DRASTIC is the modified version of the DRASTIC in terms of the rating scales and the weighting coefficients. The rating scales of each factor were calculated by the statistical comparison of nitrate concentrations in each class using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test; while the weighting coefficients were modified by the statistical correlation of each parameter to nitrate concentrations using the Spearman's rho test. The LSDG is a simple rating method using four factors such as Land use, Soil drainage, Depth to water, and Geology. Classes in each factor are compared by the Wilcoxon rank-sum test which gives a different rating to each class if the nitrate concentration in the class is significantly different. A database of nitrate concentrations in groundwaters from 149 wells was built in Keumsan area. Application of three different methods for assessing the groundwater pollution potential resulted that the prediction which was represented by a correlation (r) between each index and nitrate was improved from the EPA DRASTIC (r = 0.058) to the modified rating (r = 0.245), to the modified rating and weights (r = 0.400), and to the LSDG (r = 0.415), respectively. The LSDG seemed appropriate to predict the groundwater pollution in that it contained land use as a factor of the groundwater pollution sources and the rating of each class was defined by a real pollution nitrate concentration.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.47-75
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• 2009

Recently, researches on Management Information Systems (MIS) have laid out theoretical foundation and academic paradigms by introducing diverse theories, themes, and methodologies. Especially, academic paradigms of MIS encourage a user-friendly approach by developing the technologies from the users' perspectives, which reflects the existence of strong causal relationships between information systems and user's behavior. As in other areas in social science the use of structural equation modeling (SEM) has rapidly increased in recent years especially in the MIS area. The SEM technique is important because it provides powerful ways to address key IS research problems. It also has a unique ability to simultaneously examine a series of casual relationships while analyzing multiple independent and dependent variables all at the same time. In spite of providing many benefits to the MIS researchers, there are some potential pitfalls with the analytical technique. The research objective of this study is to provide some guidelines for an appropriate use of SEM based on the assessment of current practice of using SEM in the MIS research. This study focuses on several statistical issues related to the use of SEM in the MIS research. Selected articles are assessed in three parts through the meta analysis. The first part is related to the initial specification of theoretical model of interest. The second is about data screening prior to model estimation and testing. And the last part concerns estimation and testing of theoretical models based on empirical data. This study reviewed the use of SEM in 164 empirical research articles published in four major MIS journals in Korea (APJIS, ISR, JIS and JITAM) from 1991 to 2007. APJIS, ISR, JIS and JITAM accounted for 73, 17, 58, and 16 of the total number of applications, respectively. The number of published applications has been increased over time. LISREL was the most frequently used SEM software among MIS researchers (97 studies (59.15%)), followed by AMOS (45 studies (27.44%)). In the first part, regarding issues related to the initial specification of theoretical model of interest, all of the studies have used cross-sectional data. The studies that use cross-sectional data may be able to better explain their structural model as a set of relationships. Most of SEM studies, meanwhile, have employed. confirmatory-type analysis (146 articles (89%)). For the model specification issue about model formulation, 159 (96.9%) of the studies were the full structural equation model. For only 5 researches, SEM was used for the measurement model with a set of observed variables. The average sample size for all models was 365.41, with some models retaining a sample as small as 50 and as large as 500. The second part of the issue is related to data screening prior to model estimation and testing. Data screening is important for researchers particularly in defining how they deal with missing values. Overall, discussion of data screening was reported in 118 (71.95%) of the studies while there was no study discussing evidence of multivariate normality for the models. On the third part, issues related to the estimation and testing of theoretical models on empirical data, assessing model fit is one of most important issues because it provides adequate statistical power for research models. There were multiple fit indices used in the SEM applications. The test was reported in the most of studies (146 (89%)), whereas normed-test was reported less frequently (65 studies (39.64%)). It is important that normed- of 3 or lower is required for adequate model fit. The most popular model fit indices were GFI (109 (66.46%)), AGFI (84 (51.22%)), NFI (44 (47.56%)), RMR (42 (25.61%)), CFI (59 (35.98%)), RMSEA (62 (37.80)), and NNFI (48 (29.27%)). Regarding the test of construct validity, convergent validity has been examined in 109 studies (66.46%) and discriminant validity in 98 (59.76%). 81 studies (49.39%) have reported the average variance extracted (AVE). However, there was little discussion of direct (47 (28.66%)), indirect, and total effect in the SEM models. Based on these findings, we suggest general guidelines for the use of SEM and propose some recommendations on concerning issues of latent variables models, raw data, sample size, data screening, reporting parameter estimated, model fit statistics, multivariate normality, confirmatory factor analysis, reliabilities and the decomposition of effects.