• Title/Summary/Keyword: spatial prediction

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The Urban Fire Prediction Mapping Technique based on GIS Spatial Statistics (GIS 공간통계를 이용한 도심화재예측지도 제작기법 탐색)

  • Kim, Jin-Taek;Um, Jung-Sup
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.21 no.2 s.66
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    • pp.14-23
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    • 2007
  • In this thesis, we analysed urban fires and developed the predictive mapping technique by using GIS and spatial statistics. It presented the correlation between the fire data of last 5 years ($2001{\sim}2005$) and the factor of civilization environment in Daegu city. We produced a model of fire hazard predictive map by analyzing uncertainty of fire with the quadrat analysis and the poisson distribution.

Estimation using PZT for Vibration of Plates (압전소자를 이용한 판의 진동평가)

  • Kim, Ie-Sung;Park, Kang-Geun;Kim, Wha-Jung
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.6 no.3 s.21
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2006
  • Various monitoring sensors have been used for the monitoring, damage and vibration prediction of structures. They have been used for sensing damage in a variety of materials and structures such as piezoelectric materials (PZT) and electric strain gauges. But, many experiments of vibration were not performed. The PZT changes physical force if load cell to electrical signal due to deformation of structure. The voltage change of piezoelectric sensors for plates are used for vibration prediction. In this study, a fundamental study for vibration prediction using piezoelectric sensors are discussed in plates.

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PREDICTION MODELS FOR SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS: Application to landslide hazard mapping and mineral exploration

  • Chung, Chang-Jo
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2000.04a
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    • pp.9-9
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    • 2000
  • For the planning of future land use for economic activities, an essential component is the identification of the vulnerable areas for natural hazard and environmental impacts from the activities. Also, exploration for mineral and energy resources is carried out by a step by step approach. At each step, a selection of the target area for the next exploration strategy is made based on all the data harnessed from the previous steps. The uncertainty of the selected target area containing undiscovered resources is a critical factor for estimating the exploration risk. We have developed not only spatial prediction models based on adapted artificial intelligence techniques to predict target and vulnerable areas but also validation techniques to estimate the uncertainties associated with the predictions. The prediction models will assist the scientists and decision-makers to make two critical decisions: (i) of the selections of the target or vulnerable areas, and (ii) of estimating the risks associated with the selections.

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Development of Prediction Model for Renewable Energy Environmental Variables Based on Kriging Techniques (크리깅 기법 기반 재생에너지 환경변수 예측 모형 개발)

  • Choy, Youngdo;Baek, Jahyun;Jeon, Dong-Hoon;Park, Sang-Ho;Choi, Soonho;Kim, Yeojin;Hur, Jin
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2019
  • In order to integrate large amounts of variable generation resources such as wind and solar reliably into power grids, accurate renewable energy forecasting is necessary. Since renewable energy generation output is heavily influenced by environmental variables, accurate forecasting of power generation requires meteorological data at the point where the plant is located. Therefore, a spatial approach is required to predict the meteorological variables at the interesting points. In this paper, we propose the meteorological variable prediction model for enhancing renewable generation output forecasting model. The proposed model is implemented by three geostatistical techniques: Ordinary kriging, Universal kriging and Co-kriging.

Prediction and Analysis of PM2.5 Concentration in Seoul Using Ensemble-based Model (앙상블 기반 모델을 이용한 서울시 PM2.5 농도 예측 및 분석)

  • Ryu, Minji;Son, Sanghun;Kim, Jinsoo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_1
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    • pp.1191-1205
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    • 2022
  • Particulate matter(PM) among air pollutants with complex and widespread causes is classified according to particle size. Among them, PM2.5 is very small in size and can cause diseases in the human respiratory tract or cardiovascular system if inhaled by humans. In order to prepare for these risks, state-centered management and preventable monitoring and forecasting are important. This study tried to predict PM2.5 in Seoul, where high concentrations of fine dust occur frequently, using two ensemble models, random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) using 15 local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS) weather-related factors, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and 4 chemical factors as independent variables. Performance evaluation and factor importance evaluation of the two models used for prediction were performed, and seasonal model analysis was also performed. As a result of prediction accuracy, RF showed high prediction accuracy of R2 = 0.85 and XGB R2 = 0.91, and it was confirmed that XGB was a more suitable model for PM2.5 prediction than RF. As a result of the seasonal model analysis, it can be said that the prediction performance was good compared to the observed values with high concentrations in spring. In this study, PM2.5 of Seoul was predicted using various factors, and an ensemble-based PM2.5 prediction model showing good performance was constructed.

Travel Time Prediction Algorithm Based on Time-varying Average Segment Velocity using $Na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayesian Classification ($Na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayesian 분류화 기법을 이용한 시간대별 평균 구간 속도 기반 주행 시간 예측 알고리즘)

  • Um, Jung-Ho;Chowdhury, Nihad Karim;Lee, Hyun-Jo;Chang, Jae-Woo;Kim, Yeon-Jung
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2008
  • Travel time prediction is an indispensable to many advanced traveler information systems(ATIS) and intelligent transportation systems(ITS). In this paper we propose a method to predict travel time using $Na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayesian classification method which has exhibited high accuracy and processing speed when applied to classily large amounts of data. Our proposed prediction algorithm is also scalable to road networks with arbitrary travel routes. For a given route, we consider time-varying average segment velocity to perform more accuracy of travel time prediction. We compare the proposed method with the existing prediction algorithms like link-based prediction algorithm [1] and Micro T* algorithm [2]. It is shown from the performance comparison that the proposed predictor can reduce MARE (mean absolute relative error) significantly, compared with the existing predictors.

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A Prediction and Characterization of the Spatial Distribution of Red Soils in Korea Using Terrain Analyses (지형분석을 통한 한국의 적색토 분포 예측 및 해석)

  • PARK, Soo Jin
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.81-98
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    • 2012
  • This research aims 1) to analyse the spatial occurrence of red soils, in Korea 2) to predict their spatial distribution using terrain analyses, and 3) to interpret results from the perspective of pedogeomorphological processes. Red soils (often called red-yellow soils) in Korea are frequently found on welldrained plains and gently sloping areas. These soils are widely believed paleo-soils that were formed under hot and humid climatic conditions in the past. The spatial distribution of red soils was derived from the soil map of Korea, and a DEM based soil prediction was developed, based on a continuity equation to depict water and material flows over the landscape. About 64.5% of the red soil occurrence can be explained by the prediction. Close examinations between surveyed and predicted red soil maps show few distinctive spatial features. Granitic erosional plains at the inland of Korea show comparatively low occurrence of red soils, which might indicate active geomorphological processes within the basins. The occurrence of red soils at limestone areas is more abundant than that of the predicted, indicating the influence of parent materials on the formation of red soils. At and around lava plateau at Cheulwon and Youncheon, the occurrence of red soils is underestimated, which might partly be explained by the existence of loess-like surface deposits. There are also distinctive difference of prediction results between northern and southern parts of Korea (divided by a line between Seosan and Pohang). The results of this research calls for more detailed field-based investigations to understand forming processes of red soils, focusing on the spatial heterogeneity of pedological processes, the influence of parent materials, and difference in uplift patterns of the Korean peninsula.

Numerical Study on Atmospheric Flow Variation Associated With the Resolution of Topography (지형자료 해상도에 따른 대기 유동장 변화에 관한 수치 연구)

  • Lee, Soon-Hwan;Kim, Sun-Hee;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.1141-1154
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    • 2006
  • Orographic effect is one of the important factors to induce Local circulations and to make atmospheric turbulence, so it is necessary to use the exact topographic data for prediction of local circulations. In order to clarify the sensitivity of the spatial resolution of topography data, numerical simulations using several topography data with different spatial resolution are carried out under stable and unstable synoptic conditions. The results are as follows: 1) Influence of topographic data resolution on local circulation tends to be stronger at simulation with fine grid than that with coarse grid. 2) The hight of mountains in numerical model become mote reasonable with high resolution topographic data, so the orographic effect is also emphasized and clarified when the topographic data resolution is higher. 2) The higher the topographic resolution is, the stronger the mountain effect is. When used topographic data resolution become fine, topography in numerical model becomes closer to real topography. 3) The topographic effect tends to be stronger when atmospheric stability is strong stable. 4) Although spatial resolution of topographic data is not fundamental factor for dramatic improvement of weather prediction accuracy, some influence on small scale circulation can be recognized, especially in fluid dynamic simulation.

A Study on Modeling of Spatial Land-Cover Prediction (공간적 토지피복 예측을 위한 모형에 관한 연구)

  • 김의홍
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.47-51
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of the study is to establ ish models of land Cover (use) prediction system for development and management of land resources using remotely sensed data as well as ancillary data in the context of multi-dis¬ciplinary approach in the application to CheJoo Island. The model adopts multi-date processing techniques and is a spatial/temporal land-Cover projection strategy emerged as a synthesis of the probability tra-nsition model and the discrimnant-analys is model. A discriminant modelis applied to all pixels in CheJoo landscape plane to predict the most likely change in land Cover. The probability transition model provides the number of these pixels that will convert to different land Cover in a given future time increment. The syntheric model predicts the future change in land Cover and its volume of pixels in the landscape plane.

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A Study on Statistical Modeling of Spatial Land-use Change Prediction (토지이용 공간변화 예측의 통계학적 모형에 관한 연구)

  • 김의홍
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 1997
  • S1he concept of a class in the land-use classification system can be equally applied to a class in the land-use-change classification. The maximum likelihood method using linear discriminant function and Markov transition matrix method were integrated to a synthetic modeling effort in order to project spatial allocation of land-use-change and quantitative assignment of that prediction as a whole. The algorithm of both the multivariate discriminant function and the Markov chain matrix were discussed and the test of synthetic model on the study area was resulted in the projection of '90 year as well as '95 year land -use classification. The accuracy and the issue of modeling improvement were discussed eventually.

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