• ETRI Journal
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.208-219
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• 2022

Crime amount prediction is crucial for optimizing the police patrols' arrangement in each region of a city. First, we analyzed spatiotemporal correlations of the crime data and the relationships between crime and related auxiliary data, including points-of-interest (POI), public service complaints, and demographics. Then, we proposed a crime amount prediction model based on 2D convolution and long short-term memory neural network (2DCONV-LSTM). The proposed model captures the spatiotemporal correlations in the crime data, and the crime-related auxiliary data are used to enhance the regional spatial features. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets are conducted. Results demonstrated that capturing both temporal and spatial correlations in crime data and using auxiliary data to extract regional spatial features improve the prediction performance. In the best case scenario, the proposed model reduces the prediction error by at least 17.8% and 8.2% compared with support vector regression (SVR) and LSTM, respectively. Moreover, excessive auxiliary data reduce model performance because of the presence of redundant information.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1053-1063
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• 2017

Power prediction is critical to improve power efficiency in Smart Grids. Markov chain provides a useful tool for power prediction. With careful investigation of practical power datasets, we find an interesting phenomenon that the stochastic property of practical power datasets does not follow the Markov features. This mismatch affects the prediction accuracy if directly using Markov prediction methods. In this paper, we innovatively propose a spatial transform based data processing to alleviate this inconsistency. Furthermore, we propose an enhanced power prediction method, named by Spatial Mapping Markov-Difference (SMMD), to guarantee the prediction accuracy. In particular, SMMD adopts a second prediction adjustment based on the differential data to reduce the stochastic error. Experimental results validate that the proposed SMMD achieves an improvement in terms of the prediction accuracy with respect to state-of-the-art solutions.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.163-168
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• 2015

In order to integrate high wind generation resources into power grid, it is an essential to predict power outputs of wind generating resources. As wind farm outputs depend on natural wind resources that vary over space and time, spatial modeling based on geographic information such as latitude and longitude is needed to estimate power outputs of wind generation resources. In this paper, we introduce the basic concept of spatial modeling and present the spatial prediction model based on Kriging techniques. The empirical data, wind farm power output in Texas, is considered to verify the proposed prediction model.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.9D no.6
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• pp.1119-1126
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• 2002

In this paper, we propose two predictive spatial data mining based on spatial statistics and apply for predicting the forest fire hazardous area. These are conditional probability and likelihood ratio methods. In these approaches, the prediction models and estimation procedures are depending un the basic quantitative relationships of spatial data sets relevant forest fire with respect to selected the past forest fire ignition areas. To make forest fire hazardous area prediction map using the two proposed methods and evaluate the performance of prediction power, we applied a FHR (Forest Fire Hazard Rate) and a PRC (Prediction Rate Curve) respectively. In comparison of the prediction power of the two proposed prediction model, the likelihood ratio method is mort powerful than conditional probability method. The proposed model for prediction of forest fire hazardous area would be helpful to increase the efficiency of forest fire management such as prevention of forest fire occurrence and effective placement of forest fire monitoring equipment and manpower.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.101-111
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• 2014

Spatial events are predictable using data mining classification algorithms. Decision trees have been used as one of representative classification algorithms. And they were normally used in the classification tasks that have label class values. However since using rule ranking methods, spatial prediction have been applied in the spatial prediction problems. This paper compared rule ranking methods for the spatial prediction application using a decision tree. For the comparison experiment, C4.5 decision tree algorithm, and rule ranking methods such as Laplace, M-estimate and m-branch were implemented. As a spatial prediction case study, landslide which is one of representative spatial event occurs in the natural environment was applied. Among the rule ranking methods, in the results of accuracy evaluation, m-branch showed the better accuracy than other methods. However in case of m-brach and M-estimate required additional time-consuming procedure for searching optimal parameter values. Thus according to the application areas, the methods can be selectively used. The spatial prediction using a decision tree can be used not only for spatial predictions, but also for causal analysis in the specific event occurrence location.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.63-79
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• 2008

With the recent development of advanced GIS and complex spatial analysis technologies, the more sophisticated technologies are being required to support the advanced knowledge for solving geographical or spatial problems in various decision support systems. In addition, necessity for research on scientific crime investigation and forensic science is increasing particularly at law enforcement agencies and investigation institutions for efficient investigation and the prevention of crimes. There are active researches on geographic profiling to predict the base location such as criminals' residence by analyzing the spatial patterns of serial crimes. However, as previous researches on geographic profiling use simply statistical methods for spatial pattern analysis and do not apply a variety of spatial and temporal analysis technologies on serial crimes, they have the low prediction accuracy. Therefore, this paper identifies the typology the spatio-temporal patterns of serial crimes according to spatial distribution of crime sites and temporal distribution on occurrence of crimes and proposes STA-BLP(Spatio-Temporal Analysis based Base Location Prediction) algorithm which predicts the base location of serial crimes more accurately based on the patterns. STA-BLP improves the prediction accuracy by considering of the anisotropic pattern of serial crimes committed by criminals who prefer specific directions on a crime trip and the learning effect of criminals through repeated movement along the same route. In addition, it can predict base location more accurately in the serial crimes from multiple bases with the local prediction for some crime sites included in a cluster and the global prediction for all crime sites. Through a variety of experiments, we proved the superiority of the STA-BLP by comparing it with previous algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.272-287
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• 2021

This article presents a multi-dimensional spatial pattern analysis of crime events in San Francisco. Our analysis includes the impact of spatial resolution on hotspot identification, temporal effects in crime spatial patterns, and relationships between various crime categories. In this work, crime prediction is viewed as a classification problem. When predictions for a particular category are made, a binary classification-based model is framed, and when all categories are considered for analysis, a multiclass model is formulated. The proposed crime-prediction model (HotBlock) utilizes spatiotemporal analysis for predicting crime in a fixed spatial region over a period of time. It is robust under variation of model parameters. HotBlock's results are compared with baseline real-world crime datasets. It is found that the proposed model outperforms the standard DeepCrime model in most cases.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.18D no.5
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• pp.385-392
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• 2011

Recently, the concern of IT-in-Agriculture convergence technology that combines information technology and agriculture is increasing rapidly. Especially, the crop cultivation related prediction services by spatial data mining (SDM) can play an important role in reducing the damage of natural disaster and enhancing crop productivity. However, the data conversion and integration procedure to acquire the learning dataset of SDM for the prediction service need a lot of effort and time, because of their heterogeneity between distributed data. In addition, calculating spatial neighborhood relationships between spatial and non-spatial data necessitates requires the complicated calculation procedure for large dataset. In this paper, we suggest a SOA-based data integration framework that can effectively integrate distributed heterogeneous data by treating each data source as a service unit and support to find the optimal prediction service by improving productivity of learning dataset for SDM. In our experiment, we confirmed that our framework can be effectively applied to find the optimal prediction service for the frost damage area, by considering the case of peach crop cultivation in Icheon in Korea.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.91-92
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• 2008

본 논문에서는 기존의 H.264/AVC의 spatial 영역에서 Intra prediction 기법과 달리 H.264/AVC에서 사용하는 Integer DCT 영역에서 Intra prediction 기법을 제안한다. 이를 위하여 Integer DCT 영역에서 Intra prediction을 수행하는 모든 과정을 matrix multiplication으로 표현하여 Intra prediction을 수행하는 matrix를 유도한다. Intra prediction을 수행하는 matrix를 각 모드에 알맞게 설계하고, 이 matrix를 Integer DCT 영역에서 사용할 수 있도록 orthogonal한 Integer matrix를 설계한다. 실험을 통하여 제안한 Integer DCT 영역에서 Intra prediction 기법이 기존의 H.264/AVC의 spatial 영역에서 intra prediction 기법과 성능이 동일하면서 어떻게 matrix multiplication에 연산들을 포함시켜서 단순화 할 수 있는지를 보여주겠다. 또한 H.264/AVC에서 제공하는 intra prediction 각 모드에 대해 계산상 복잡도를 분석하였다.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.36 no.7
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• pp.553-559
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• 2012

It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Erdos as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Erdos and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.