• Title/Summary/Keyword: spatial poisson model

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Comparison of Bayesian Spatial Ecological Regression Models for Investigating the Incidence of Breast Cancer in Iran, 2005- 2008

  • Khoshkar, Ahmad Haddad;Koshki, Tohid Jafari;Mahaki, Behzad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.5669-5673
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    • 2015
  • Background: Breast cancer is the most prevalent kind of cancer among women in Iran. Regarding the importance of cancer prevention and considerable variation of breast cancer incidence in different parts of the country, it is necessary to recognize regions with high incidence of breast cancer and evaluate the role of potential risk factors by use of advanced statistical models. The present study focussed on incidence of breast cancer in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some prominent covariates using Bayesian models. Materials and Methods: All patients diagnosed with breast cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2008 were included in the study. Smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and the Human Development Index (HDI), measured at the province level, were considered as potential modulating factors. Gamma-Poisson, log normal and BYM models were used to estimate the relative risk of breast cancer in this ecological investigation with and without adjustment for the covariates. Results: The unadjusted BYM model had the best fit among applied models. Without adjustment, Isfahan, Yazd, and Tehran had the highest incidences and Sistan- Baluchestan and Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari had the lowest. With the adjusted model, Khorasan-Razavi, Lorestan and Hamedan had the highest and Ardebil and Kohgiluyeh-Boyerahmad the lowest incidences. A significantly direct association was found between breast cancer incidence and HDI. Conclusions: BYM model has better fit, because it contains parameters that allow including effects from neighbors. Since HDI is a significant variable, it is also recommended that HDI should be considered in future investigations. This study showed that Yazd, Isfahan and Tehran provinces feature the highest crude incidences of breast cancer.

Spatial Analyses and Modeling of Landsacpe Dynamics (지표면 변화 탐색 및 예측 시스템을 위한 공간 모형)

  • 정명희;윤의중
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.227-240
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    • 2003
  • The primary focus of this study is to provide a general methodology which can be utilized to understand and analyze environmental issues such as long term ecosystem dynamics and land use/cover change by development of 2D dynamic landscape models and model-based simulation. Change processes in land cover and ecosystem function can be understood in terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of land cover resources. In development of a system to understand major processes of change and obtain predictive information, first of all, spatial heterogeneity is to be taken into account because landscape spatial pattern affects on land cover change and interaction between different land cover types. Therefore, the relationship between pattern and processes is to be included in the research. Landscape modeling requires different approach depending on the definition, assumption, and rules employed for mechanism behind the processes such as spatial event process, land degradation, deforestration, desertification, and change in an urban environment. The rule-based models are described in the paper for land cover change by natural fires. Finally, a case study is presented as an example using spatial modeling and simulation to study and synthesize patterns and processes at different scales ranging from fine-scale to global scale.

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Modified Lysmer's analog model for two dimensional mat settlements under vertically uniform load

  • Chang, Der-Wen;Hung, Ming-He;Jeong, Sang-Seom
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.221-231
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    • 2021
  • A two dimensional model of linearly elastic soil spring used for the settlement analysis of the flexible mat foundation is suggested in this study. The spring constants of the soils underneath the foundation were modeled assuming uniformly vertical load applied onto the foundation. The soil spring constants were back calculated using the three-dimensional finite element analysis with Midas GTS NX program. Variation of the soil spring constants was modeled as a two-dimensional polynomial function in terms of the normalized spatial distances between the center of foundation and the analytical points. The Lysmer's analog spring for soils underneath the rigid foundation was adopted and calibrated for the flexible foundation. For validations, the newly proposed soil spring model was incorporated into a two dimensional finite difference analysis for a square mat foundation at the surface of an elastic half-space consisting of soft clays. Comparative study was made for elastic soils where the shear wave velocity is 120~180 m/s and the Poisson's ratio varies at 0.3~0.5. The resulting foundation settlements from the two dimensional finite difference analysis with the proposed soil springs were found in good agreement with those obtained directly from three dimensional finite element analyses. Details of the applications and limitations of the modified Lysmer's analog springs were discussed in this study.

A Numerical Analysis of Free Surface Wave around a ship (선체주위 자유수면파의 수치해석)

  • Choon-Bum Hong;Seung-Hee Lee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.80-86
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    • 1994
  • A numerical method for simulations of inviscid incompressible flow fields around a ship advancing on the free surface is developed. A body fitted coordinate system, generated by numerically solving elliptic type partial differential equations is used to conform the ship and free surface configurations. Three dimensional Euler equations transformed to the non-staggered body fitted coordinate system are discretised by finite difference method. Time and spatial derivatives are discretised by forward and centered differencings, respectively, and artificial dissipations are added to discretised convection terms for improvements of numerical stability. At each time steps, free surface elevations are recomputed to satisfy nonlinear free surface conditions. Poisson equations for pressure field are solved iteratively and the velocity field for next time step is extrapolated. To verify the developed numerical method, flow fields around a Wigley model are simulated(Fn=0.250-0.408) and compared with experimental data to show good agreements.

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Modeling Traffic Accident Occurrence Involving Child Pedestrians at School Zone (공간적 특성을 고려한 어린이 교통사고 모형 개발)

  • BEAK, Tea Hun;Son, Seulki;PARK, Byung Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.489-498
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to develop road traffic accident model involving child pedestrian especially at school zones and its surrounding area. The analysis is based upon traffic accident data collected near sixty elementary schools in City of Cheongju during 2012 and 2014. This study results in two statistical models ; one is to predict the number of road traffic accidents involving children, and the other is to predict EPDO(Equivalent Prperty Damage Only). These models are represented as Poisson models. which are statistically significant with the likelihood ratios of 0.533 and 0.273. The common explanatory variables of these models are the ratio of road section with more than 4 lanes, the number of entrance and exit, the number of signalized crosswalk in school zone, the number of school zone signage including road surface marking, and the number of speed limit signs. The specific variables are the length of road stretch in school zone, the number of reflector mirrors, and the number of signalized crosswalk outside school zone. It is concluded that these types of road safety facilities can reduce the number of traffic accidents involving children at school zones and its surrounding area.

Traffic-Aware Relay Sleep Control for Joint Macro-Relay Network Energy Efficiency

  • Deng, Na;Zhao, Ming;Zhu, Jinkang;Zhou, Wuyang
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2015
  • With the ever growing demand of data applications, the joint macro-relay networks are emerging as a promising heterogeneous deployment to provide coverage extension and throughput enhancement. However, the current cellular networks are usually designed to be performance-oriented without enough considerations on the traffic variation, causing substantial energy waste. In this paper, we consider a joint macro-relay network with densely deployed relay stations (RSs), where the traffic load varies in both time and spatial domains. An energy-efficient scheme is proposed to dynamically adjust the RS working modes (active or sleeping) according to the traffic variations, which is called traffic-aware relay sleep control (TRSC). To evaluate the performance of TRSC,we establish an analytical model using stochastic geometry theory and derive explicit expressions of coverage probability, mean achievable rate and network energy efficiency (NEE). Simulation results demonstrate that the derived analytic results are reasonable and the proposed TRSC can significantly improve the NEE when the network traffic varies dynamically.

Modeling and Analysis of Fine Particle Behavior in Ar Plasma (모델링을 통한 Ar 플라즈마 중의 미립자 운동에 관한 연구)

  • 임장섭;소순열
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 2004
  • Recently, many researches for fine particles plasma have been focused on the fabrication of the new devices and materials in micro-electronic industry, although reduction or elimination of fine particles was interested in plasma processing until now on. In order to enhance their utilization, it is necessary to control and analyze fine particle behavior. Therefore, we developed simulation model of fine particles in RF Ar plasmas. This model consists of the calculation parts of plasma structure using a two-dimensional fluid model and of fine particle behavior. The motion of fine particles was derived from the charge amount on the fine particles and forces applied to them. In this paper, Ar plasma properties using two-dimensional fluid model without fine particles were calculated at power source voltage 15[V] and pressure 0.5[Torr]. Time-averaged spatial distributions of Ar plasma were shown. The process on the formation of Coulomb crystal of fine particles was investigated and it was explained by combination of ion drag and electrostatic forces. And also analysis on the forces of fine particles was presented.

A Spatial Statistical Approach to Migration Studies: Exploring the Spatial Heterogeneity in Place-Specific Distance Parameters (인구이동 연구에 대한 공간통계학적 접근: 장소특수적 거리 패러미터의 추출과 공간적 패턴 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Il
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2001
  • This study is concerned with providing a reliable procedure of calibrating a set of places specific distance parameters and with applying it to U.S. inter-State migration flows between 1985 and 1900. It attempts to conform to recent advances in quantitative geography that are characterized by an integration of ESDA(exploratory spatial data analysis) and local statistics. ESDA aims to detect the spatial clustering and heterogeneity by visualizing and exploring spatial patterns. A local statistic is defined as a statistically processed value given to each location as opposed to a global statistic that only captures an average trend across a whole study region. Whereas a global distance parameter estimates an averaged level of the friction of distance, place-specific distance parameters calibrate spatially varying effects of distance. It is presented that a poisson regression with an adequately specified design matrix yields a set of either origin-or destination-specific distance parameters. A case study demonstrates that the proposed model is a reliable device of measuring a spatial dimension of migration, and that place-specific distance parameters are spatially heterogeneous as well as spatially clustered.

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Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

Optimization of Resource Allocation for Inter-Channel Load Balancing with Frequency Reuse in ASO-TDMA-Based VHF-Band Multi-Hop Data Communication System (ASO-TDMA기반 다중-홉 VHF 대역 데이터 통신 시스템의 주파수 재사용을 고려한 채널간 부하 균형을 위한 자원 할당 최적화)

  • Cho, Kumin;Lee, Junman;Yun, Changho;Lim, Yong-Kon;Kang, Chung G.
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.40 no.7
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    • pp.1457-1467
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    • 2015
  • Depending on the type of Tx-Rx pairs, VHF Data Exchange System (VDES) for maritime communication is expected to employ the different frequency channels. Load imbalance between the different channels turns out to be a critical problem for the multi-hop communication using Ad-hoc Self-Organizing TDMA (ASO-TDMA) MAC protocol, which has been proposed to provide the connectivity between land station and remote ship stations. In order to handle the inter-channel load imbalance problem, we consider a model of the stochastic geomety in this paper. After analyzing the spatial reuse efficiency in each hop region by the given model, we show that the resource utility can be maximized by balancing the inter-channel traffic load with optimal resource allocation in each hop region.