• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.37 no.2
• /
• pp.129.2-129.2
• /
• 2012

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are two major solar eruptive phenomena which can cause enormous economic and commercial losses: (1) flares are sudden, rapid, and intense brightenings from radio waves to Gamma-rays in the chromosphere and corona, and (2) CMEs are large-scale transient eruptions of magnetized plasma from the solar corona that propagate outward into interplanetary space. Most flares and CMEs occur in magnetically complicated solar active regions (ARs). Therefore, it is crucial to investigate magnetic fields in ARs and their temporal variations for understanding a precondition and a trigger mechanism related to flare/CME initiation. In this presentation, we will introduce an automated system for empirical forecasting of flares and CMEs in ARs using full-disk photospheric line-of-sight magnetogram data taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the SDO.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.36 no.spc1
• /
• pp.37-44
• /
• 2003

In this paper, we review recent studies on the magnetic helicity changes of solar active regions by photospheric horizontal motions. Recently, Chae(200l) developed a methodology to determine the magnetic helicity change rate via photospheric horizontal motions. We have applied this methodology to four cases: (1) NOAA AR 8100 which has a series of homologous X-ray flares, (2) three active regions which have four eruptive major X-ray flares, (3) NOAA AR 9236 which has three eruptive X-class flares, and (4) NOAA AR 8668 in which a large filament was under formation. As a result, we have found several interesting results. First, the rate of magnetic helicity injection strongly depends on an active region and its evolution. Its mean rate ranges from 4 to $17 {\times} 10^{40}\;Mx^2\;h^{-1}$. Especially when the homologous flares occurred and when the filament was formed, significant rates of magnetic helicity were continuously deposited in the corona via photospheric shear flows. Second, there is a strong positive correlation between the magnetic helicity accumulated during the flaring time interval of the homologous flares in AR 8100 and the GOES X-ray flux integrated over the flaring time. This indicates that the occurrence of a series of homologous flares is physically related to the accumulation of magnetic helicity in the corona by photospheric shearing motions. Third, impulsive helicity variations took place near the flaring times of some strong flares. These impulsive variations whose time scales are less than one hour are attributed to localized velocity kernels around the polarity inversion line. Fourth, considering the filament eruption associated with an X1.8 flare started about 10 minutes before the impulsive variation of the helicity change rate, we suggest that the impulsive helicity variation is not a cause of the eruptive solar flare but its result. Finally, we discuss the physical implications on these results and our future plans.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.40 no.4
• /
• pp.99-106
• /
• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.36 no.1
• /
• pp.36.1-36.1
• /
• 2011

It is generally believed that eruptive phenomena in the solar atmosphere such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur in the solar active regions with complex magnetic structures. Magnetic helicity has been recognized as a useful parameter to measure the complexity such as twists, kinks, and inter-linkages of magnetic field lines. The objective of this study is to understand a long-term (a few days) variation of magnetic helicity in active regions and its relationship with the energy buildup and instability leading to flares and CMEs. Statistical studies of flare productivity and magnetic helicity injection in about 400 active regions were carried out. The temporal variation of magnetic helicity injected through the photosphere of active regions was also examined related to 46 CMEs. The main findings in this study are as follows: (1) the study of magnetic helicity for active regions producing major flares and CMEs indicates that there is always a significant helicity injection through the active-region photosphere over a long period of 0.5 - a few days before the flares and CMEs; (2) for the 30 CMEs under investigation, it is found that there is a fairly good correlation (linear correlation coefficient of 0.71) between the average helicity injection in the CME-productive active regions and the CME speed. Beside the scientific contribution, a major impact of this study is the observational discovery of a characteristic variation pattern of magnetic helicity injection in flare/CME-productive active regions which can be used for the improvement of solar eruption forecasting.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.26.1-26.1
• /
• 2010

In this talk we outline the current understanding of solar flares, mainly focusing on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) processes. A flare causes plasma heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration which generates high-energy particles. The key physical processes producing a flare are: the emergence of magnetic field from the solar interior to the solar atmosphere (flux emergence), formation of current-concentrated areas (current sheets) in the corona, and magnetic reconnection proceeding in a current sheet to cause shock heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration. A flare starts with the dissipation of electric currents in the corona, followed by various dynamic processes that affect lower atmosphere such as the chromosphere and photosphere. In order to understand the physical mechanism for producing a flare, theoretical modeling has been develops, where numerical simulation is a strong tool in that it can reproduce the time-dependent, nonlinear evolution of a flare. In this talk we review various models of a flare proposed so far, explaining key features of individual models. We introduce the general properties of flares by referring observational results, then discuss the processes of energy build-up, release, and transport, all of which are responsible for a flare. We will come to a concluding viewpoint that flares are the manifestation of the recovering and ejecting processes of a global magnetic flux tube in the solar atmosphere, which has been disrupted via interaction with convective plasma while rising through the convection zone.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
• /
• 2010.04a
• /
• pp.25.1-25.1
• /
• 2010

This talk outlines the current understanding of solar flares, mainly focusing on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) processes. A flare causes plasma heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration that generates high-energy particles. The key physical processes related to a flare are: the emergence of magnetic field from the solar interior to the solar atmosphere (flux emergence), formation of current-concentrated areas (current sheets) in the corona, and magnetic reconnection proceeding in current sheets that causes shock heating, mass ejection, and particle acceleration. A flare starts with the dissipation of electric currents in the corona, followed by various dynamic processes which affect lower atmospheres such as the chromosphere and photosphere. In order to understand the physical mechanism for producing a flare, theoretical modeling has been developed, in which numerical simulation is a strong tool reproducing the time-dependent, nonlinear evolution of plasma before and after the onset of a flare. In this talk we review various models of a flare proposed so far, explaining key features of these models. We show observed properties of flares, and then discuss the processes of energy build-up, release, and transport, all of which are responsible for producing a flare. We come to a concluding view that flares are the manifestation of recovering and ejecting processes of a global magnetic flux tube in the solar atmosphere, which was disrupted via interaction with convective plasma while it was rising through the convection zone.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
• /
• 2004.04a
• /
• pp.37-37
• /
• 2004

It is well known that solar activity such as coronal mass ejections(CMEs) and flares is a direct driver of space weather. In this talk, we introduce its main physical characteristics and physical connections among CMEs(or flares) -Interplanetary(IP) shocks - interplanetary CMEs (or magnetic clouds) - geomagnetic storms. Specifically, solar activity is discussed in terms of space weather scales (R:Radio Blackout, S: Solar Radiation Storms, G: Geomagnetic Storms). (omitted)

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.40 no.1
• /
• pp.64.3-64.3
• /
• 2015

We have developed a set of daily solar flare peak flux forecast models for strong flares using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network methods. We consider input parameters as solar activity data from January 1996 to December 2013 such as sunspot area, X-ray flare peak flux and weighted total flux of previous day, and mean flare rates of McIntosh sunspot group (Zpc) and Mount Wilson magnetic classification. For a training data set, we use the same number of 61 events for each C-, M-, and X-class from Jan. 1996 to Dec. 2004, while other previous models use all flares. For a testing data set, we use all flares from Jan. 2005 to Nov. 2013. The best three parameters related to the observed flare peak flux are weighted total flare flux of previous day (r = 0.51), X-ray flare peak flux (r = 0.48), and Mount Wilson magnetic classification (r = 0.47). A comparison between our neural network models and the previous models based on Heidke Skill Score (HSS) shows that our model for X-class flare is much better than the models and that for M-class flares is similar to them. Since all input parameters for our models are easily available, the models can be operated steadily and automatically in near-real time for space weather service.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• v.35 no.4
• /
• pp.211-218
• /
• 2018

Solar microwave bursts carry information about the magnetic field in the emitting region as well as about electrons accelerated during solar flares. While this sensitivity to the coronal magnetic field must be a unique advantage of solar microwave burst observations, it also adds a complexity to spectral analysis targeted to electron diagnostics. This paper introduces a new spectral analysis procedure in which the cross-section and thickness of a microwave source are expressed as power-law functions of the magnetic field so that the degree of magnetic inhomogeneity can systematically be derived. We applied this spectral analysis tool to two contrasting events observed by the Owens Valley Solar Array: the SOL2003-04-04T20:55 flare with a steep microwave spectrum and the SOL2003-10-19T16:50 flare with a broader spectrum. Our analysis shows that the strong flare with the broader microwave spectrum occurred in a region of highly inhomogeneous magnetic field and vice versa. We further demonstrate that such source properties are consistent with the magnetic field observations from the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and the extreme ultraviolet imaging observations from the SOHO extreme ultraviolet imaging telescope. This spectral inversion tool is particularly useful for analyzing microwave flux spectra of strong flares from magnetically complex systems.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.36 no.spc1
• /
• pp.49-54
• /
• 2003

We introduce the two-dimensional spectral observations of solar flares using the Solar Tower Tele-scope of Nanjing University, China. In particular, we introduce three typical events and the methods used to analyze the data. (1) The flare of November 11, 1998, which is a limb flare. We derive the temperature and density within the flaring loop using non-LTE calculations. The results show that the loop top may be hotter and denser than other parts of the loop, which may be a result of magnetic reconnect ion above the loop. (2) The flare of March 10, 2001, which is a white-light flare that shows an emission enhancement at the near infrared continuum. We propose a model of non-thermal electron beam heating plus backwarming to interpret the observations. (3) The flare of September 29, 2002, which shows unusual line asymmetries at one flare kernel. The line asymmetries are caused by an upward moving plasma that is accelerated and heated during the flare development.